Horrible Oden News

I was just on my way back to my desk when I got an email from my buddy Josh Stump which read, "It was microfracture." I barely made it the rest of the way to my office.

If you are a Blazers fan, or even just an NBA fan, this is far more depressing news than referee scandals or plummeting NBA Finals ratings. This is "you have to be kidding me" territory.

Obviously, the first place this news takes us is back to the Sam Bowie conversation. Leading up to the draft, one of the big fears in taking Oden is that the Blazers might somehow be tempting fate, since the last time they had the chance to take either an electric perimeter player or an imposing big man, they opted for Bowie over Jordan in one of the most infamous draft choices of all time. The comparison seemed wrong for many reasons, not the least of which was the fact that Portland wanted Hakeem that year but missed out when they didn't get the number one pick. So comparing Hakeem to Jordan was more appropriate. But now that Oden is already going to be shelved for his rookie year, the Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan comparison is more apt. The specter of Bowie is going to loom over EVERYTHING.

The second place this is going to go is the inevitable comparisons to other NBA players who have had microfracture surgery. This tends to be better news for Blazers fans. I think we still recoil at the term "microfracture," because very recently it appeared to be an injury from which there was no coming back. Now we just know that it takes at least a full year, maybe more. Jason Kidd is no spring chicken, yet he has bounced back well enough to be the key guy on Team USA. Zach Randolph carries more weight on his frame than Oden, yet was able to come all the way back and have a monster year for this very same Portland team last year. And Amare Stoudemire is a player that relies far more on his athleticism than Oden and managed to make the NBA's first team all-league last year. No doubt Amare isn't quite the same guy, but he's still pretty fantastic.

The one player that has to worry the Blazers is Kenyon Martin. That is because K-Mart has a star-crossed injury past that sort of mirrors the path that Oden is on. While Oden never shattered a leg like Martin, he did have the broken wrist at Ohio State and was already down with tonsillitis during summer league play. K-Mart is the one NBA player of recent vintage that hasn't been able to get back to full health (yet) and that has to scare the good people of Portland.

All told, this is horrible, horrible news. No doubt the immediate gut reaction for the Blazers is to want to turn the clock back to draft night and take Kevin Durant instead. The urge to second-guess and wonder "what if" is going to have to be suppressed, otherwise, it will cause you to go crazy.

The Blazers need to use this season to continue Roy's development, let Aldridge grow into the monster that he's destined to become, and maybe boost the trade value of some expendable (or maybe not so expendable now?) players like Joel Przybilla. They need to sit comfortably in the knowledge that Oden is young, that his knee is otherwise healthy, and that the injured area was small (all similar to the first reports about Amare's knee, by the way - of course, they had to go back in on Stoudemire). Mainly, they need to take some solace in the knowledge that this type of procedure has come a long, long way. The days of Terrell Brandon and Jamal Mashburn seeing their careers end over this are over.

Oden is going to be okay, as long as no one panics.

And as long as there really is no Bowie Curse on this franchise.

Clippers Sign Another Player That Should Be In Boston

Several weeks after taking veteran free agent Brevin Knight off the free agent market, the Clippers have once again swooped in and nabbed an unemployed NBA vet in Ruben Patterson.

Both guys know how to fill a role, they play hard, and can really help round out a winning team. The problem? The Clippers aren't a winning team. Not only that, they aren't at all equipped to handle these personalities. Knight has been rumored to be a bit of a handful (in the "Grumpy Gus" sense) in the locker room, while Patterson once had to roll around with one of those electronic ankle bracelets after he sexually assaulted his nanny. Guys like that don't assimilate all that well to unstable situations, which is exactly what the Clippers have. The other L.A. team has an injured Elton Brand, an injured Shaun Livingtson, and a perpetually injured Sam Cassell. That's the core. Then there's overpaid Chris Kaman, oft-injured and disenfranchised Corey Maggette, and "always missing Steve Francis" Cuttino Mobley on the edges. Does that sound like a proper cauldron to be throwing Ruben Patterson into? Or even Brevin Knight?

Not only that, but Patterson just became roster overkill. The only place where the Clippers have any real depth right now is at small forward. They've got Maggette to score, Quentin Ross to defend, and rookie Al Thornton to do a bit of everything. How are they even going to get the Nanny Stopper on the court? It's a disaster.

On the other hand, we have the Boston Celtics. You might recall that when the KG trade first happened, I implored Danny Ainge to sign these very players. Brevin Knight would be the perfect fit to back up Rajon Rondo - he could give the C's a solid 20 minutes a game at the point while teaching the youngster a few tricks. Knight has always been a fabulous passer and terrific help defender, which would have only aided Rondo's development in those areas. As for Patterson, he was the perfect compliment to their perimeter rotation. He hustles, plays with energy, shoots a high percentage, defends, and offers some decent athleticism. How on earth is James Posey a better choice for that spot?

Anyway. It's just weird to see both of the guys that could have perfectly rounded out the Boston roster wind up in an awful situation 3,000 miles away. It's like the bizarro result of what should have happened.

Oh well, maybe this means Maggette is finally on his way out of town.

And ... We're Back

Please forgive yet another extended absence from the blog. I was travelling and then starting my new job, so things have been hectic. And speaking of new jobs, that is going to slow down the production level quite a bit. Not only is my new profession a tad on the demanding side, but it also would be in poor taste to make several posts each day, during work hours, using my real name. So this is going to be a morning, lunch hour, late night, weekend kind of thing, with the goal being 5-10 posts per week. We'll see how it goes.

I've got some stuff on tap regarding Team USA, including thoughts on J-Kidd's legacy, the way superstars turn it up on D, and some eyewitness accounts courtesy of my brother, Drew. So that should be fun.

For now, I'm going to break from all-NBA, all the time just long enough to post my NFL picks. After all, I need a place to put them, even if this is now just a hoops blog.

I'll make it quick:

AFC Division Winners - New England, Indy, San Diego, and Pittsburgh.
AFC Wild Cards - Cincinnati and Jacksonville
NFC Division Winners - Philly, Seattle, New Orleans, Minnesota
NFC Wild Cards - Dallas and Green Bay

(That's right, I've got the Ravens and Bears sitting at home.)

Super Bowl - Pittsburgh over Dallas
MVP - Tom Brady
DPOY - Champ Bailey
ROY - Adrian Peterson
COY - Brad Childress

Aid to the Clippers

Someone needs to get on the horn and place an order to be delivered to the Staples Center, ASAP. Within should be thousands of horseshoes, amulets, four leaf clovers, and rudraksh nuts. We should also probably ring as many church bells as possible and remove all broken mirrors and step ladders from any Clippers facilities. And a ban on black cats wouldn't be a bad idea either.

I mean, can it get any worse for the Clips? 14 months ago they were jousting with the Suns in the Western Conference semis and looking every bit like a rising power in the NBA. Now? Not so much. Cassell washed up in a hurry, Dunleavy snookered the team into an extension (true Clippers fans and those familiar with Mike Sr.'s work all seemed to know right from the outset that this was a bad idea), Chris Kaman suffered from the effects of either "getting nuts grabbed hangover" (courtesy of Reggie Evans) or "getting paid hangover," and Shaun Livingston nearly had his leg come flying off his body. Now Elton Brand, the most consistent player in franchise history (by a long shot), has a torn Achilles tendon and might miss the entire 2007-08 season.

Ouch.

Of course, it is possible that Brand - known as an extremely hard worker - could come back as early as February, but that is a best case scenario. Plus, this is a guy that is a notoriously slow starter, which means that the 35 game mark (when he starts getting going) will come at the end of the season.

All of which means the Clips are probably dead in the water before the season even begins and no doubt kicking themselves for drafting a "help now" guy in 76-year old (slight exaggeration) Al Thornton.

Anyone have any ideas for how the Clippers can catch a break? If not, I suggest we send that order of horseshoes on the double.

A Rondo Believer

I've become borderline obsessed with the Celtics ever since I first heard they were pulling the trigger on the KG deal. Maybe it is because I want to believe the NBA still matters after the big referee scandal or perhaps I just have some excess energy after finishing the old licensing exam. Whatever the reason, I'm determined to figure out whether this whole circus is actually going to turn Boston into a good team. I'm already on record that the C's are botching their post-KG opportunity to round out the roster and I believe they are priming themselves for a potential disaster. That said, I'm not ruling out a Finals run for this team as it is currently constructed.

Part of the reason I'm still bullish is because I seem to hold out more hope than most that Rajon Rondo can make a big leap forward and become a legit playoff point guard.

My instinct is that Rondo can do it. His athleticism is insane and he really impressed me last year with his defensive intensity and ball handling. Rondo's shot clearly sucks and his decision-making as a rookie was obviously questionable at best, but what rookie doesn't make questionable decisions with the ball? Particularly rookies given part-time roles in the offense.

The big question is whether such a rookie can turn the corner by his second year. Deron Williams accomplished the feat last year with ease and went from a shaky rookie PG to a damn near dominant lead guard in the postseason. I'm not suggesting that Rondo is going to make that kind of jump, but I couldn't help but wonder if the transition from backup rookie to full time starter is a natural one to make in a player's second year.

With that in mind, I decided to scour through every relevant point guard in the NBA in search of guys that got spotty minutes as a rookie, only to become "the guy" in their second year. The list of such players really isn't that long. I had to rule out all of the guys that got big minutes as starting point guards their rookie years (Mike Bibby, Tony Parker, Stephon Marbury, T.J. Ford, Jamaal Tinsley, Chauncey Billups, Kirk Hinrich, Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Jason Williams, Raymond Felton, and Chris Paul) as well as all the guys who failed to get big minutes as a starter their second season (Steve Nash, Leandro Barbosa, Steve Blake, Shaun Livingston, Sam Cassell, Rafer Alston, Mo Williams, Jamal Crawford, Antonio Daniels, Earl Watson, Eric Snow, Smush Parker, Derek Fisher, Jose Calderon, and Jameer Nelson). And obviously, I can't research any other 06-07 rookies.

The Test Group

That left a list of eight guys that went from reserves/part time starters (with less than 30 mpg) as rookies to starters (50+ starts, 30+ mpg) in their second year. That list includes Deron Williams, Monta Ellis (if he counts as a PG), Jarrett Jack, Baron Davis, Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Gilbert Arenas, and Luke Ridnour. As Tony Kornheiser would say, "That's it, that's the list!"

The problem with such a small test group is that it doesn't really account for the myriad ways a rookie point guard can come to take over a team in year two. Rondo's situation is that he's a talented player who is in a "last man standing" scenario following a massive trade. Is there a situation like that represented by this group of players? I'm not sure there is. That said, this group of players came to starting roles in a variety of ways that range from overwhelming talent demanding playing time to "someone has to play" situations. I don't want to read too much into the uniqueness of the circumstances, but it also can't be ignored. More on this later.

General Trend

The initial bit of good news for Celtics fans? Nearly every guy on this list made huge strides from Year One to Year Two. Almost across the board, these players made big jumps in key statistical areas. And it wasn't just the kind of statistical improvement that comes from extra playing time either, because I focused the analysis on "Per 40 Minute" stats. Even eliminating minutes as a changing variable, almost every guy got better in almost every area.

One thing that stood out to me is that every player on the list lowered his fouls per 40 minutes, which indicates a much better feel for the pace of the game and an awareness of Tim Donaghy's presence on the court. Okay, cheap joke, but I really do think it speaks volumes about the way these guards adjusted to the NBA game.

In addition, all but one player on the list saw his turnovers per 40 go up. While that might seem like a bad stat, I suggest the opposite. I've always thought people get too carried away with turnovers, because a high number can indicate aggressiveness and a willingness to push the envelope in addition to just sloppy play. Steve Nash and Jason Kidd often have unbelievable games filled with turnovers. Like many basketball stats, turnovers only mean something if accompanied by context.

All told, the "per 40" numbers of these eight players showed a trend to improve scoring, improve playmaking, and - perhaps even more importantly - improve feel for the game and aggressiveness.

This is all good news for Rondo, but I felt that the list was still too general, mainly because Rondo is 21 and will turn 22 in February of the 2007-08 season. That puts him on the younger side of the ledger, which I believe is relevant because the younger guys typically made bigger strides and in fact all of them "improved" by any definition of the word. The results of the "23 and over" crowd were a bit more mixed, which is in keeping with the philosophy held by many that NBA teams should draft younger guys if they want to see dramatic improvement. The older you are, the closer you probably are to your ceiling, or something like that. Anyway, here are the two groups (four players in each group):

23 and Over

For the point guards that turned 23 or older during their second year (when they become the clear starter), the results are mostly positive. However, it appears that for the older players, the progress was more subtle and more in line with the skill set that has been on display ever since. Plus, the only guy that came anywhere near regression (Ridnour) is on this list.

A quick look at teach player in the 23 and Over group:

Jarrett Jack, 23 - Jack went from 4 games started to 77 and saw his minutes increase 13 per game to 33.4 in his second year with the Blazers. He became a pretty competent point guard and saw slight increases in points and assists per 40 as well as a big bump in eFG%. His boards dropped, which is actually pretty common. Not sure why, although it could be that as point guards they learn how to get back on D and get in position for outlet passes to start the offense. Or maybe they get lazy. I don't really know. In addition to improving offensively, Jack really came along as a defensive player last season. I feel like Jack represents Rondo's floor next season, which isn't bad, considering the former Yellow Jacket was better than anyone running the point for Cleveland, Orlando, Miami (Wade doesn't count), Washington (without Arenas), Houston, or the Lakers in last year's postseason.

Andre Miller, 25 - To me, Miller really represents the difference between the older and younger guards. While he definitely improved from year one to year two, most of that was just the natural byproduct of more minutes (from 25.5 to 34.7). He had a slight bump in points and assists and - like pretty much all of these guys - committed fewer fouls, all based on per 40 minute numbers. However, Miller was pretty much Miller, even as a rookie getting spot minutes. But again, he was already 25 years old when he became a starting point guard in his second year. The important takeaway here is that Miller's per 40 numbers held up when he became a starter, which is important because - like Rondo - he can't hit the broadside of a barn with his jumper. I think a lot of people are worried that Rondo will struggle to remain effective as a full time player if he's more heavily scouted and can't keep defenses honest. Miller faced similar issues and wasn't effected in the least.

Jason Terry, 23 - Perhaps it was because he came off the bench for Arizona's national title team, but for some reason the Hawks coaching staff couldn't get used to the idea of Jason Terry starting as a rookie. He only logged 27 starts (very similar to Rondo's 25) as a rookie (even though his competition was Bimbo Coles) and then jumped up to 77 in his second year. Terry actually saw a drop in assists per 40, but only because he took a massive leap in scoring. He also enjoyed a big bump in eFG%. Like Miller, Terry's second year was less about improving (although he certainly did improve) and more about establishing what type of player he would be - namely, a scoring lead guard.

Luke Ridnour, 24 - Ridnour is the most suspect player on this list. You probably already could have guessed that, because he lost his job to Earl Watson last year. But know that the numbers tell the same story. Ridnour went from 6 starts to 82 and from 16.1 minutes to 31.4 in his second year, but saw only a bump in his assists per 40 minutes, with his eFG% staying the same and his points and boards dropping. Part of Ridnour's problem is that he was so horrific on defense that he played shorter rotations than any other guard on this list, which made it harder to find a groove on offense. That shouldn't be a problem for Rondo.

Under 23

This is the group that Rondo would belong to, which bodes very well for Boston. Each guy on this list made serious progress during his second year and three of the four went from bench players to legit studs (while the other, Ellis, was named the league's Most Improved Player. Two (Baron and Deron Williams) were drafted higher than Rondo and two (Arenas and Ellis) went in the second round. One (Williams) played better than Rondo in his rookie minutes, the other three were probably slightly outperformed by the Celtic point guard. So while it seems a little crazy and maybe even irresponsible to compare Rajon Rondo to guys like Baron Davis and Gilbert Arenas, there isn't a compelling statistical reason not to compare him to those players. Here are the "under 23" players, individually:

Deron Williams, 22 - The Kingpin of this whole list and the guy that every emerging second year point guard is going to want to be. He started 47 games at 28.8 mpg as a rookie and made the jump to 80 starts and 37 mpg in year two. With his new found responsibility and the maturation of his game, Williams made a nice jump in points per 40, a huge leap in assists (almost unfathomable, actually, from 6.2 to 10.1), and a slight bump in eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which takes into account threes). As mentioned above, like everyone on the list, his fouls went down and his turnovers went up, indicating a much better presence and feel on the court. Overall, a massive improvement.

Gilbert Arenas, 21 - Arenas made 30 starts and played 24.6 minutes per game as a rookie and impressed enough to warrant 82 starts and 35 minutes a night the next season. His eFG% dropped (and has been dropping ever since), but everything else went way up - points, boards, assists, you name it. Arenas showed flashes as a rookie, but nobody saw him stepping up like he did in his second season. They should have.

Monta Ellis, 21 - Deja vu, anyone? Like Arenas, Ellis turned 21 during his second season in Oakland, when he went from 3 starts to 53 and from 18.1 minutes per to 34.3 mpg. And of course his numbers went up - doubling someone's minutes tends to do that. More importantly, Ellis' points per 40 went way up, his eFG% went way up, and he saw a significant increase in his assists per 40. Only his boards dropped. The only bad news here for Rondo fans is that Ellis really regressed in the playoffs. However, even that can be explained. Because unlike every other guy on this list, Ellis was still not supposed to be the starting point guard of his team. He was inserted into the role when Baron got hurt, so he didn't prepare the previous summer to be the starting point guard, nor did he feel the same sense of ownership and responsibility once Baron and Richardson returned. Ellis' postseason slump is more about reverting back to his rookie mindset than his rookie game. Unless the C's plan on bringing in a stud veteran point guard to unseat Rondo just before the playoffs, this shouldn't be a big fear.

Baron Davis, 22 - Speaking of Baron, he didn't get a single start during his rookie year and logged just 18 minutes a night, but started every game at a whopping 39 minutes per during his second year. Like Jason Terry, Baron both improved and also settled into his game, as his assists per 40 actually dropped, but he grabbed more boards and scored far more often. The odd thing about Baron is that while his fouls went way down (as expected), he actually committed fewer turnovers per 40. This tells me that he was both plenty aggressive and plenty sloppy as a rookie.

What It All Means

My overwhelming gut reaction after looking over this list is to run out and purchase stock in Rajon Rondo. The eight point guards that shared nearly identical circumstances all saw their numbers translate as a starter - and that is a bare minimum standard that really only pertains to Luke Ridnour. The other seven guys all improved, almost across the board. They perfected skills (scorers or playmakers), became more aggressive, and got comfortable with the pace and physicality of NBA games. Not only that, but the younger the player, the more extreme the improvement. Since he turns just 22 this year, Rondo seems to be primed for a huge breakout season. All of which means that should be more than serviceable as the pilot of Boston's title quest.

However, all of that optimism has to be tempered just a bit given the unique aspects of Rondo's situation. For starters, I'm not sure there is a guy on this list, with the possible exception of Andre Miller, that has a jump shot as mangled as Rondo's. Additionally, half of these players took over the reigns for losing teams, where expectations were low - just as the Celtics youngster was set to do before all the trading. On the flip side, Rondo is probably a superior defensive player to every guard on this list, so that helps negate the shooting concerns. And its not as if none of the aforementioned second-year point guards played for playoff teams - Baron's Hornets won a playoff series, Monta Ellis and the Warriors upset the Mavs (although, as mentioned above, he didn't really do much to aid that result), Luke Ridnour and the Sonics won the Northwest division, and Deron Williams led the Jazz to the Western Conference Finals. So it can be done.

When you add it all up, it seems that Rondo's chances for stunning success greatly outweigh the odds of colossal failure. At the very least, based on his per 40 numbers from last year, he should show improved comfort with the speed of the game, limit his foul trouble, and provide solid stats along the lines of 12 points, 7 assists, and 5 boards a game. His shooting percentage should improve either slightly or greatly (even if his form doesn't) and he will likely continue to play terrific pressure defense on the ball and in passing lanes.

I have to say, I'm down with Rondo. The C's no doubt still need a capable backup, but they can cease their search for a starter. I'd argue they've already got the guy they need to win the whole thing.

Celtics Stuff: Boiled Down

This is pathetic, but I am throwing up a quick post to put all of my scattered thoughts on this Boston stuff in one place. I've been all over the map on this topic, which I'm blaming on being out of practice because of the bar exam. So here it goes:

1. On draft day, I felt that the Ray Allen trade was a good idea, because I believed (against all odds) that Danny Ainge had a master plan to use the Ratliff contract to bring in another key piece. In fact, I gave the C's an A+ for their draft. Maybe a little too enthusiastic, but to this day I am confused why everyone flipped out.

2. In the first hours of the renewed KG rumors, I made a case for Boston doing whatever it took to get Garnett, including trading Al Jefferson. I've seen several people argue this point and take the other side, using stats to make a case for Jefferson being "nearly as good" as KG. I don't buy it. I don't doubt Al's potential, but KG is a vastly superior defender and leader and he's done it in every situation. Jefferson's only stint of elite (if we can call it that) production came when Boston had already stuck a fork in its season last year. Not exactly high stakes. (Note though that I did not advise adding Ryan Gomes to a KG deal - I think Boston is really, really going to miss him.)

(I also suggested that Boston then turn Rondo and a future pick into Jose Calderon, which was apparently the result of someone slipping PCP into my Trader Joe's burrito, as numerous Raps fans kindly pointed out. I guess Colangelo is prepared to lay out big cash for Calderon and move forward with a point guard platoon that earns north of $15 mil a year. Who knew?)

3. Once the KG deal was complete, I joined the likes of ESPN's Marc Stein in a Celtics Kool-Aid drinking contest, but with the caveat that they would need to add some cheap veterans. I didn't see this as being a tremendously difficult task, considering they had the entire $6 mil exception with guys like Brevin Knight, Ime Udoka, Matt Barnes, Ruben Patterson, James Singleton, and P.J. Brown on the market. Adding the former and the latter and one of the swingmen in the middle would have rounded out this roster nicely. Instead, they opted for Eddie House and Jackie Manuel, which I found deeply disturbing.

4. Given the news that Ainge had crapped the bed with his first post-KG moves (and, in the process, betrayed the trust that I placed in him way back on draft day), I decided to see if Boston could somehow add another piece via trade. This is the post that Henry linked too in True Hoop and it is important to note that these were last gasp ideas to salvage the mess that is the Boston roster.

5. Coming soon ... why I am a Rondo Believer.

So that's where we are at. I've gone from feeling oddly (and uniquely) optimistic about the Ray Allen trade to feeling vindicated when the KG deal went down to being completely perplexed by Boston's inability and unwillingness to finish the job. I know I've asked this before, but ... Eddie House and Jackie Manuel?

Salvage Trades

As discussed below, Boston is not using free agency wisely. There is still hope of stealing a marooned free agent on the cheap or bringing in some bodies via buyouts (Troy Hudson?), but the best shot at picking up at least one more decent player in Boston is probably with a trade. The problem? They have no contracts. They've got three guys making $55 million and that's pretty much it. Kendrick Perkins makes $4.4, but they need him to log minutes at the 5 (by the way, everyone trashes Perkins, but I think he's pretty decent - at the very least he can do what Diop does in Dallas, right?). Rondo makes over a million, but he's their point guard of the future, err, present. Then they've got a bunch of loose change. It's really amazing to look at the salaries on this roster.

The only player with a salary meaty enough to move is Brian Scalabrine, but that is only because Ainge made the moronic decision to pay the guy $3 million per. Hard to imagine anyone wanting this stiff.

That said, trying to trade Scalabrine + one is probably Boston's only hope. Here are some possible deals that could help, all of them stretches (because that is the hand Ainge and Co. just dealt themselves):

(Note: for the players I thought Boston should have targeted via free agency, see this previous post.]

1. Scalabrine ($3MM) to the Warriors for Jasikevicius ($4MM). Boston would have to add a contract - any contract - to this to get within 125% on each side, but this trade might work. Golden State has no use for the former Maryland Terrapin/Team USA destroyer so they might be willing to get rid of him and save a few bucks on Scalabrine, who could have some value in Oakland as a backup forward. This is basically a swap of crap for crap, except that Jasikevicius could really help Boston and be a nice compliment to Rondo off the bench. He's good enough that he shouldn't be doing his best Mateen Cleaves impression and waving towels on the end of the Warriors bench. If G-State doesn't want him, maybe Boston can steal him away.

(Speaking of Golden State, now that KG is no longer an option, what exactly is the master plan over there? I still contend that the Richardson-for-Wright trade was a good one, but it seemed like that was the first of a series of moves. Are they going after Yi? Are they so excited about Bellini that they are calling it a day? When will they decide between Barnes and Pietrus? I'll admit, the Warriors interest me greatly.)

2. Scalabrine and Tony Allen (total $4.9MM) to Houston for Rafer Alston and Steve Novak (total $5.2MM). The Rockets are desperately trying to get rid of Rafer Alston and will probably see any successful attempt to do so as addition by subtraction. Plus, if Houston - who has added three point guards, Luis Scola, and tons of depth in the past two months - has one remaining weak spot it is the need for an athletic wing defender. With their depth, the Rockets can afford to gamble on Allen's return to health and they can absorb Scalabrine into the bench. Meanwhile, Boston gets a more experienced - if somewhat shaky - point guard to pair with Rondo and a much better shooter to bring off the bench in Novak. The loss of Allen - if healthy - would be tough to swallow, but the last thing this Jurassic team needs is another health concern. The addition of point guard depth and shooting makes it worth. Not to mention the fact that the Manuel signing would actually make some sense without Allen on the roster.

3. Scalabrine and Leon Powe (total $3.67MM) to Memphis for Damon Stoudemire ($4.3MM). This deal actually works for both teams and fits under the cap. If Boston believes Big Baby is ready to contribute then they have no need for Powe, since both are undersized power forwards. This allows the C's to include Powe with Scalabrine in an effort to tempt Memphis into giving up Stoudemire. It shouldn't be too hard. Mighty Mouse isn't in the Grizzlies' plans anymore and having Scalabrine rot on the bench won't be any different than having Damon rot on the bench. But the addition of Powe gives Memphis one more young player to add to a growing mix that includes Conley, Lowry, Gay, and Warrick, not to mention Mike Miller and Pau Gasol. As for the Celtics, they might not be getting a world-beater in Stoudemire, but he fills in all of Rondo's problem areas with scoring and experience and could really help their second unit. Plus, since Memphis recently waived Alexander Johnson, Boston could pick him up for cheap and it would be like getting two players back in the deal.

(By the way, Boston should right this minute be offering every bench player on its roster for Kyle Lowry. I doubt Memphis will trade him, but considering they drafted Conley instead of Horford, you never know.)

[Update: Clearly the California bar exam has fried my brain as Horford went #3 to the Hawks and Conley #4 to the Grizz, making my statement above impossible and idiotic. Still, drafting Conley one year after taking Lowry doesn't exactly scream "We love Kyle!" Maybe Boston could get him. I doubt it though.]

4. Future Pick to Portland for Jarrett Jack ($1.2MM). Boston doesn't have a lot of draft picks left to trade, but I don't know what else they can offer Portland that makes sense. Jack could really help Boston's bench and doesn't seem to have a place in Portland where Blake is the PG of now and Sergio Rodriguez is the PG of tomorrow. And the Blazers have so many players on the roster I can't imagine them wanting another asset in return. Maybe this could work. Also, Boston should keep an eye out for a Darius Miles buyout. He's a lunatic but they are officially in gambling mode anyway.

None of those trades are likely to happen, nor will any of them truly solve Boston's roster problems, but they might be the best chance the Celtics have of rounding out this team and competing for a spot in the Finals.

Eddie House and Jackie Manuel?

Come on, Danny Ainge. When I went on record saying that Boston was 2-3 pieces from being the favorite in the East, I didn't mean any pieces. In fact, the list of appropriate options was included in the post and nowhere on it did the names House and Manuel appear.

Honestly, the way Boston is rounding out its roster is depressing. I know it is stupid to trust this front office with a master plan, but from the minute they mortgaged the future to acquire Ray Allen, I've assumed that there was a big picture plan of attack to use young assets and Ratliff's contract to bring in another star. And that once that star was in place, that they would go on a luxury-tax-be-damned mission to get veterans on the cheap, like the Lakers did with GP and Malone a few years ago.

Well, up until yesterday, it was all going according to plan. But then suddenly, mysteriously, Boston pulled up short before Step Three in the process. Hours after trading for the most expensive player in the NBA (and re-singing him), they decided they didn't want to get into luxury tax territory. What? I'm sorry, but that isn't an option at this point. They need to cobble contracts together and make another move for a vet. They need to spend every last cent of their exception to fill out the bench. They can't pull the reigns back now. It's insanity.

Eddie House is not the answer as a backup point guard, especially on a team with Ray Allen. Jackie Manuel couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, and even if he turns out to be a Quentin Ross type player (best case scenario), he can't log minutes at the 4, which means he is pretty much worthless (since Ray-Ray, Pierce, and Tony Allen will play all the minutes at the 2-3 spots).

The Celtics just used up some cash and some roster spots on guys who can't help them. That's the bottom line. And perhaps this can be salvaged on some level by a creative trade or a P.J. Brown signing for the minimum or even getting Matt Barnes on the cheap now that he's desperately playing agent roulette ... but we are starting to reach Hail Mary territory. Already.

I guess I should have known better than to trust Danny Ainge. Guys like Brevin Knight, James Singleton, and Ruben Patterson could have helped this team and been had for a song. Instead, he signed freaking Eddie House and Jackie Manuel. Wow.

And I'm not even a Boston fan. I can only imagine how frustrating this is them.

With the KG Trade Finalized ...

I'm very curious to see what Boston does to round out the roster. As detailed in a previous post, I felt this was a great trade for the Celtics and thought it was a no-brainer to use the Ratliff bargaining chip in conjunction with Jefferson to give themselves a shot at winning now. Allen, Pierce, and KG are all fantastic players and - even more importantly - they should mesh well together given their different strengths.

However, it will be very interesting to see where Boston goes from here. They obviously must round out the roster in advance of the 2008 trade deadline because while these guys aren't ready for retirement, they aren't young either. Boston is probably only going to get 2 or 3 years of elite level play from this trio, so they must complete the roster and aim for the Finals immediately.

I personally think Rondo will make a big step forward this year and now that the Toronto contingent has ruled out a Calderon trade, I think Boston can stand pat at starting point guard. Rondo can push pace, apply pressure on defense, and get into the lane to create for Allen on the wing. He'll be more than adequate as a 30-35 minutes a game guy. However, Boston needs more than rookie Gabe Pruitt to back him up. In fact, I would contend that Boston actually needs a veteran 20 mpg point guard that can spell Rondo early and actually replace him late to run the offense. Boston could definitely get by with a platoon featuring the young buck and an experienced vet out of the Avery Johnson mold. My buddy Josh Stump wondered in an email today whether Brevin Knight had signed with anyone and I thought that was a perfect fit for Boston. Knight is fragile and can't log huge minutes (not can he shoot at all), but he knows how to run a team and could be a perfect closer as well as a tutor to Rondo.

In fact, it is Boston's bench that concerns me. In my previous post, I discussed why the inclusion of Al Jefferson shouldn't bother Celtic fans, and I stand by all the points I made at that time. However, I will note that the proposed deal didn't include Ryan Gomes. I think his inclusion will be costly for Boston. He was a hard worker and a versatile player that really would have given this team some help as the first forward off the pine and now he's off in the land of lakes where his subtle skills will be totally wasted.

That is why I would argue that Boston needs to focus on the bench. Rondo is going to be fine as long as they bring in a vet to help him out. Perkins is going to be fine with KG there to mentor and protect him in the middle. I really think the starting lineup is set. However, they can't feel great about a second unit that features Pruitt, Tony Allen (recovering from an ACL tear), Scalabrine, Big Baby Davis, and Leon Powe. That is zero centers, zero natural point guards, zero shooters, and about 10 total years of experience. I'm actually expecting Powe to give them some punch in the middle, for Allen to make it back (he was playing great last year), and for the rookies to come along nicely. That said, they still need to add two pieces to the bench.

The first is covered above, as Boston needs to add a veteran point guard on the cheap. Again, Knight would be ideal but even a guy like Jason Hart would do. Notice I said "like" Jason Hart, because the real version already signed with Utah. Then they need to add a versatile small forward type that can guard people and allow Boston to shift Pierce down or Garnett up to go big or small. Getting some shooting from that player wouldn't hurt either. Morris Peterson would have been ideal, but he just signed with New Orleans. Perhaps James Posey? He seemed washed up last year, but as recently as the 2006 Finals, he was a beast. Ime Udoka would be a huge add, but aren't the Spurs rumored to be offering him quit a bit of cash? I'm not sure how much coin Boston could throw at him. Ruben Patterson seems like a pretty good option. Matt Barnes is appealing but probably won't want to sign for less money to come off the bench when he's got such a good thing going in Oakland.

All told, here are the players Boston might want to target to fill those two positions, with only a midlevel to split between them:

PG - Brevin Knight, Earl Boykins, Troy Hudson (ironically, as he was just bought out by the Wolves), Darrick Martin, Eddie House, Mike Wilks.

F - Ime Udoka, Ruben Patterson, Matt Barnes, James Singleton, James Posey, P.J. Brown, Devin Brown, Austin Croshere, Kelvin Cato, Jumaine Jones.

As you can see, the pickings are pretty slim. And that proves that the biggest problem with the KG trade wasn't all the guys that Boston had to give up, but the fact that they couldn't get it done until now, when all the decent free agents were already locked up to deals.

Still, hope is not lost, as there are some decent players on that list. If Ainge can get even one veteran to sign for less than $1 mil, he can spend $2.5 mil each on two other guys. It seems plausible that his $6 million midlevel could net a combination like Knight, Patterson, and P.J. Brown.

With those three players, suddenly the roster looks like this:

PG Rondo
SG R. Allen
SF Pierce
PF Garnett
C Perkins
B - Knight
B - T. Allen
B - Patterson
B - P.J. Brown
B - Powe
B - Big Baby
B - Pruitt

With Big Baby and Pruitt moved all the way down to the 11/12 spots on the depth chart, suddenly the bench doesn't seem so thin. And Knight, Allen, Patterson, and Brown would give Boston some real quality defense coming off the bench.

With a few more quality moves, Ainge can have this team positioned as the favorite in the East.

Quick Baseball Post

I know I just got done saying that this was going to become a basketball only blog in any future versions, but I have to take a moment to point out the nights where Pepperdine alums Noah Lowry and Dan Haren both get W's. Haren continued his push for the AL Cy Young (he's winning on my ballot) by improving to 13-3 with a 2.44 ERA and Lowry continued his recent hot stretch by pitching in and out of trouble in route to a 3-1 victory over the Giants that upped his record to 12-7 and lowered his ERA to 3.32.

It seems like just yesterday I was spending lazy Friday afternoons at Eddy D. Field watching Haren and Lowry lead a Pepperdine team that won 50+ games. Basketball focus or not, I'm going to give these guys some love whenever they both win on the same night.

Talking Celtics

It should have been a sleepy Monday morning in NBA land, as the Kobe stuff has totally dissipated, the ref scandal is still looming large enough to cast a pall over any actual roster moves, and the U.S. national team has closed up shop until mid August. I mean, at the end of last week, the biggest stories dealt with Juan Carlos Navarro's eventual destination and whether the Heat might want Rafer Alston. Not exactly the stuff of a PTI lead in.

But now the KG-to-Boston rumors are popping up again, which means we might be in for a fun day of refreshing web pages and reading flimsy speculation. Personally, I usually just check True Hoop 10 times a day to get the needed info (seriously, all anyone needs from ESPN to follow hoops these days is ESPN news and Henry's blog), which is how I first heard about the renewed talks and also where I learned that there is a version of the deal that doesn't involve Al Jefferson.

A few thoughts:

Ray Allen in Retrospect. First, I realize that I was in the minority in regard to the Ray Allen trade. It probably didn't make much sense to many people to mortgage the future for an aging All-Star when the roster couldn't make a run at the Finals. And certainly Danny Ainge had made enough bad moves and course corrections in the past five years to eliminate any benefit of the doubt. That said, for some reason, I was quite sure that there would be more to come from the Celtics. Even after the trade they still had future picks, some young talent (Gerald Green always seems to excite people who haven't seen him play defense), and Theo Ratliff's expiring contract. Not to mention the ultimate trade chip in Al Jefferson. So to think they were "stuck" with Pierce and Allen and a bunch of kids was ridiculous. You certainly couldn't assume that Ainge would put the whole thing together, but their dealings were clearly incomplete.

KG Rumors. Now there are reports that Boston might have a shot at KG in a variety of deals both with and without Jefferson. Obviously, Boston fans are hoping for the latter and I've even heard some C's fans say that they would rather keep Jefferson than get Garnett. Which is crazy.

Jefferson is a good young player who put up great numbers last year. I enjoyed a great deal of success in my fantasy leagues thanks to him. However, before people start saying he's better than Dwight Howard or untouchable, it is important to remember the issue of context. Jefferson had been an underachiever and a guy who couldn't quite "get it" right up until the moment that Pierce went down with an injury and Boston decided to tank the season last year. So all of a sudden Big Al is running around with a bunch of rookies and playing glorified summer league games. I'm not saying he didn't improve, but I am saying that all that improvement came in pretty carefree circumstances. It wasn't exactly Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals whenever he stepped on the floor.

Not only that, but Jefferson is a mediocre defender at best. He doesn't do a particularly good job of denying post position and he always seems a step slow with his help defense. For a team that defends the paint like they are allergic to it, Jefferson isn't exactly the guy you want anchoring the interior.

KG on the other hand has done his thing in every imaginable situation. He's come up big in the playoffs, he's played through injuries, he's dominated international play and All-Star games. There isn't a scenario out there that I could imagine throwing him for a loop. So you can actually pencil in his numbers as opposed to projecting some garbage time stats and then crossing your fingers, as you would have to do with Jefferson. Not only that, but KG answers all of Boston's questions on the defensive end. He would be a dramatic upgrade over Jefferson on that end of the floor and a guy who can help teach a player like Kendrick Perkins. Much like when Greg Maddux joins a pitching staff, you are basically getting both a player and a coach for your younger guys.

All of that explains why I think Boston should pull the trigger on a KG deal even if it includes Jefferson. I think Jefferson is becoming overvalued right now and since Boston has mortgaged their future for "right now" anyway, there is no need to cling to a young guy who might take a step backward right when you need him to become an elite post player.

If I'm the Celtics, I hang on to those future first round picks and offer up a package of Jefferson, Green, Telfair, and Ratliff's expiring deal (a package Minnesota should happily take, by the way) and move forward with the goal of winning the NBA Finals.

Eventual Celtics Roster. How would such a roster look at that point?

Well, the deal outlined above would enable Boston to retain promising young point guard Rajon Rondo, recovering stopper Tony Allen, Perkins, and capable young bigs in Leon Powe and Big Baby Davis. Having only Gabe Pruitt has a backup point guard is a problem, but every team in the East has holes. Besides, Boston can still use its midlevel to round out the roster.

(And if there is any way they could possibly do it, Boston should try to trade for Toronto backup Jose Calderon. Maybe, just maybe, the Raptors undervalue him and would give him up. Maybe.)

Here is the roster I see taking care of business in the East next year:

PG - Rajon Rondo
SG - Ray Allen
SF - Paul Pierce
PF - Kevin Garnett
C - Kendrick Perkins
B - Tony Allen
B - Ryan Gomes
B - Big Baby Davis
B - Leon Powe
B - TBD

I honestly think that team is in the NBA Finals next year.

Seriously.

Don't Call It A Comeback

Actually, okay, you can call it that.

Many (read: a handful) of you are wondering where I've been, why I haven't commented on the referee scandal, and what the future of this blog looks like. Here are answers to those three questions:

1. Where I've Been. I believe it was mentioned in previous posts, but I've been busy preparing for, taking, and recovering from the California state bar exam. I think it went well (the dreaded multiple choice leaves you with no idea whether you passed or not), but won't know until November. While preparing, I couldn't pursue my other interests and hobbies without feeling guilty, so I just studied all day long. But now it is over.

2. Why I Haven't Discussed the Referee Scandal. For starters, see above. This whole thing happened during my hiatus from blogging, which meant there was no chance I would be talking about it at length on this space. However, I probably would have passed anyway. The coverage of this was oversaturated to begin with and it all seemed too depressing to really sink my teeth into. I will say that my gut reaction when I first heard was "suck it, Stern." I'm not saying that the NBA should have prevented this or that it is David Stern's fault, but I do think he deserved to get a nice, juicy scandal dropped in his lap. He's become so drunk on power the last few years and so completely ignorant about domestic issues in his fan base that he officially reached the point where he deserved to get crapped on. If this whole scandal humbles him or forces major changes in the way the NBA is run and administered, or even provides us with a new commissioner, it will be well worth it. I know that sounds messed up, but that's just how I feel.

(As for the NBA games being rigged ... of course they are! We've all known this for years, haven't we?)

3. The Future of This Blog. Those of you who also read the columns over at WhatifSports will note that my column doesn't exist anymore. The process of leaving the site has been in the works for a while and we were communicating about the best way to end things ... and then suddenly they stopped communicating and just eliminated any trace of my existence. Yeah, weird. So the first step will probably be to change the web address of this blog, which shouldn't be a huge deal since I think I drove away all but 3 or 4 readers with the extended absence.

Beyond changing the IP address, the future of the blog is a bit up in the air. As mentioned above, I finished the bar, which means I start working at a law firm in a few weeks. No longer living the glorious life of a student means fewer hours in the day to write, which is a problem because now I have far more writing projects than I can handle. The blog might be a casualty of the new schedule. We shall see.

For now, I am going to keep throwing up some posts when the mood strikes. I'll be gone all of next week and am unlikely to post much during my first few weeks at the new job, so the next month makes for a good test run to see if the page can survive in a diminished capacity. It may require bringing in co-bloggers, or coming up with a gimmick to support a one-post-a-day kind of thing, or it may result in official retirement from the blogging game.

If the blog does survive and thrive, it will officially become an all-NBA blog, because I think the only way to post content that is in any way worth reading is to pick your favorite sport and specialize there. Over time, with enough quality insight, lucky predictions, and humor, people will eventually start clicking on the link to get your take. So even though it pains me to abandon other sports in a year where I have a legitimate shot at picking every MLB playoff team (right now the Cubs are a half-game out of first in the NL Central and the Phillies are two games back in the Wild Card - all other picks are correct), I feel there is no choice but to focus on basketball, and to use the NBA as the viewpoint for all things basketball (including the NCAA tournament).

That was probably too much information, but I'm convinced that blogs are only worthwhile these days if there is specialization and transparency. I already explained the former and this whole post explains the latter.

I'll be back soon with thoughts on the latest KG rumors.

Summer League Shockers

I'm taking a little break from studying for the California bar exam, and here is what I discovered from the first two days of the Vegas summer league:

1. Marco Belinelli is sick! The Warriors new first round pick went for 37 bones on 14-of-20 shooting in his debut. I know that summer league is a bad proxy (Skita, anyone?) for NBA success and that Belinelli joins the ranks of Keith Bogans and Ike Diogu as the all-time top single game scorers in Vegas league history, but still, 37 is 37. Plus, he looks like a perfect fit in that offense and if I remember correctly, this is how he played against Team USA in that exhibition. (Wasn't that in Vegas as well? Maybe if the Sonics move there, they should trade for this dude.) I think he's for real and will pour in about 150 threes next year. I can't wait to take him in the 11th round of my fantasy draft.

2. Memphis is going to be pretty solid. Gasol and Mike Miller are legit, Rudy Gay is showing his promise (at the expense of Yi's face), and Mike Conley appears to be the real deal. He looks a lot like Chris Paul in the way he controls tempo and plays with both hands. The Grizzlies still need help on the frontline - which is probably why they are about to slap an offer sheet in Anderson Varejao's mailbox - but I really think they can get back to .500 next year and build for the future.

3. The Blazers are stoked. This might seem like an odd opinion considering Oden's rough first game and the fact that Rudy Fernandez is considering accepting an offer in Barcelona that will keep him abroad for years, but I think yesterday was a positive day for Rip City. That is because LaMarcus Aldridge was treating the Celtics summer league team like a bunch of kids. He went for 26 and 11 on a dizzying array of post moves, turnarounds (Hakeem would be proud), and 20-foot jumpers. He also showed no signs of that Wolf-Pakistan disease or whatever it was called. Portland knows Oden will be a beast and anchor the D for years and they know they will have the perimeter talent eventually, but I think they were really crossing their fingers with Aldridge. If he's healthy and continues to develop, he could be a dominant power forward in the NBA. And that could be the difference between contender and dynasty. And yes, I'm one step closer to being named the president of the LaMarcus Aldridge Fan Club. So be it.

4. Nice, job, Billy King! King's latest first round picks - Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith - were abysmal in their summer league debuts. And it wasn't Greg Oden "a bit out of sorts, needs to find the range" abysmal, it was "wow, that guy looks like he's never played basketball" abysmal. King is the absolute, well, king of GM ineptitude.

5. A Spurs and Cavs game is still boring. 67 to 53. In a 40-minute game. Are you serious?

Lewis to Magic

It seems like just yesterday that the Orlando Magic were talking about trying to keep Darko and lure Vince Carter to South Florida. It seemed like a decent option at the time, but thank goodness for Magic fans they didn't stick to that plan. Darko is going to be wildly overpaid on his potential (certainly not for his basketball IQ or work ethic), while Carter once again showed his true colors in the postseason. Orlando would have capped out for pure mediocrity under the old plan.

I'm not sure if the addition of Rashard Lewis immediately makes them a contender in the East, but it is a start. Dwight Howard is still improving (although I'm starting to think his ceiling is lower than most people assume) and it looks like Fran Vasquez is finally ready to come help his NBA team, so Orlando has some pieces in place. Jameer Nelson needs to stop his regression and emerge as a leader and playmaker and they need a post scorer to compliment Howard (Sean May would have been perfect in the 05 draft, but that ship has sailed), but Lewis really does dramatically change their team. Orlando's biggest weaknesses last year were athleticism on the wings and an inability to stretch the floor. Lewis solves both problems and is able to go 25+ a night while staying out of Howard's way. Plus, his two problem areas - lockdown defense and rebounding out of his area (to use a Jay Bilas-ism) - are mitigated by other Magic players. Trevor Ariza can provide some needed perimeter D (when Hedo isn't on the floor) and Howard is such a tenacious rebounder that Lewis should be able to skirt that small forward duty without much of a problem. Orlando will struggle mightily on D when Nelson, Turkaglu, and Lewis are on the floor together, but mix-and-match rotations and Howard's help side defense should offset that.

All in all, I think this was the right move for Orlando. It is a bit much to spend on a second banana type player, but Lewis actually fits there team quite well. And it isn't everyday that you can add elite young talent in the NBA.

Immediate Draft Thoughts

Never go to bed on an empty stomach. Never let the sun set on an argument. Never wait until the next day to post some thoughts on the NBA Draft.

Words to live by.

Anyway, here are some quick hits from my favorite sports day of the year.

1. Kevin Pritchard Owns the NBA Draft. One year after getting pretty much all the good players in the 2006 Draft, the Blazers' GM once again dominated the event. He resisted the Siren Song of Kevin Durant in order to pick the artist that will eventually be known as Four-Time Finals MVP Greg Oden at #1. This was significant not only because Oden is going to be the Next Gen Tim Duncan in terms of interior dominance, but because it gave Portland maximum flexibility to shape the rest of the roster. This was evident when the Blazers peddled Zach Randolph in the middle of the first round in exchange for Channing Frye and Steve Francis' skeleton. On paper, this seemed a bit puzzling, as you would imagine there being a better market for a 24-10 guy that can crush on the low block. But apparently the Bulls aren't biting and the Mavs don't want to overpay for a guy they would bring off the bench. And bringing Rasheed Wallace back to town? Forget it. So the Randolph market wasn't that great, which makes sense when you remember that his high school coach once said something along the lines of: every day that I read the paper and see that Zach didn't die or wasn't involved in a death is a good day. I guess a few GM's heard that one as well.

Anyway. The other part of the deal that seems bad at first blush is that Frye is really a slightly lesser version of LaMarcus Aldridge. And Steve Francis blows. So where is the value? The value is that they can buy out Francis and get a bit of short term savings and some huge long term cap relief when Stevie Franchise (now THAT has become a hilarious nickname) comes off the books in 2009. I sincerely doubt he will ever step foot in the Rose Garden's home locker room. As for Frye, he may or may not have a home in the rotation or even in a Frankensteinish three-bigs front court with two gazelle-like 6'11 guys flanking Oden. Doesn't matter. Because Frye has value around the league and can be packaged with other assets to bring in the 3 that the Blazers need. My hunch is that they bring Steve Blake back to run the point, put Roy, Udoka, Aldridge, and Oden in the starting lineup, let Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez, Demetris Nichols (for his shooting), Josh McRoberts, and Joel Przybilla come off the bench, and then use Frye and Martell Webster to unload Darius Miles and bring a legit small forward back in return. That's just my hunch.

Speaking of Nichols and McRoberts, the rest of the night was superb for Portland. They got a top-20 player in McRoberts with pick #37 (classic case of an overexposed Duke guy dropping too far - he's no Carlos Boozer and I actually don't think he's all that great, but he will make people pay for this), the shooter they desperately needed with pick #53, and somehow managed to add Taurean Green, Petteri Koponen (who I felt like I knew, thanks to Henry Abbots' work over at True Hoop), AND Rudi Feranandez ... all for a handful of cash. Are you serious? They have so many assets and parts and guys stashed overseas (Koponen and Fernandez join Brit Joel Freeland across the pond) that it is a little ridiculous. In three years, they are going to have a lineup of:

PG - Sergio Rodrigeuz (next Tony Parker)
SG - Brandon Roy
SF - Ime Udoka (next Bruce Bowen, except not dirty)
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge
C - Greg Oden
6th - Rudy Fernandez (next Ginobili)

Throw in tough-minded coach Nate McMillan and savvy GM Pritchard and you can see why the Blazers are shaping up to be the next San Antonio. And that doesn't even consider all the moves they might make, from trades, to free agent signings, to draft picks.

Okay, I'd better move on to point #2.

2. Celtics Do Well. I don't care what Stephen A. Smith or Mark Jackson say, Boston did a great job tonight. In fact, I'm still incredibly confused by the lashing they gave the C's on national television. Am I missing something? Do they think that Boston traded the rights to Durant rather than Jeff Green? I mean, I'm a Jeff Green fan, but it's not like he's a mortal lock to the make the Hall of Fame or anything. And to get rid of Wally Z in the process? Did Delonte West become the Bionic Man in the past month? Seriously, I am perplexed. If I'm not mistaken, Boston was able to free up the point guard spot for Rajon Rondo, keep Paul Pierce happy, add Big Baby to the middle, draft Gabe Pruitt for backcourt depth, and pick up Ray Freaking Allen. And that's not a great night? I know Allen is almost 32, but last time I checked, 32 wasn't the new 40. Steve Nash won his second MVP at age 32 and was even better last season at 33. Plus, Allen is a jump shooter, which means he will probably hold up better than most shooting guards as he gets older. The guy has at least three great seasons left in him. And with Rondo, Allen, Pierce, and Jefferson, the Celtics become an immediate contender in the East. PLUS, they didn't have to include Theo Ratliff's expiring contract in the deal, which gives them a fantastic trade chip for the summer of even next year's deadline. I give them an A+ on the night, yet the ESPN guys were just killing them. Strange. Then again, the ESPN guys were calling Portland the biggest losers of the draft last year and we all know how that turned out.

3. Could Phoenix Be Any Cheaper? This is getting ridiculous. If my man Sarver can't afford to pay rookies, he might want to sell the club. For the second year in a row, Phoenix sold a first round pick to Portland for straight cash money. The Blazers must be in heaven. Find a Spanish player you like? Buy him from the Suns! Steve Nash probably feels like choking someone right now. Quick, get KG to the desert before they both go insane. (Note: I did like both the Tucker and Strawberry picks. Those guys are immediate upgrades over James Jones and Marcus Banks.)

4. Houston, You Have a Problem. Cheesy pun alert! But seriously, what were the Rockets doing? They might need a power forward more than any team in the last decade, they were on the board with several intriguing (if not totally safe) prospects sitting there in Big Baby, McRoberts, and Nick Fazekas. Instead, they took Aaron Brooks, who I like, but becomes their fourth undersized guard, joining Rafer Alston, Luther Head, and the recently acquired Mike James. Did they forget that they JUST traded Juwan Howard for James? Were the Houston execs reenacting scenes from Scarface by snorting mounds of coke before their pick? I want an explanation or a trade or something that justifies this. And then to compound the lunacy, they took some Australian guard just one pick before nemesis Utah grabbed super sleeper Herbert Hill. I give Houston an F- for this draft.

5. Other "F-" Performances.. The Lakers, for taking a point guard who isn't ready (Javaris Crittenton) one year after taking a point guard who wasn't ready. Milwaukee, for taking a guy who doesn't even want to set foot in your city and might set off a diplomatic showdown that has the makings of 24: Day Seven. And, of course, Philadelphia. Although, technically, the late Byers pick probably bumps them to more like a D+, I am still putting them in this group. Leave it to Billy King to have THREE picks in the first round of one of the deepest drafts in years and come away with zero starters. Al Thornton was available and ready to start right away; King passed. Julian Wright was a steal at #12; King passed. Instead, he went with project Thaddeus Young, who simply isn't going to be as good as either of those guys. Then, so worried was he that Miami might take Jason Smith (yeah, right), he doled out some cash to swap picks. Which means that they gave up Igoudala's running mate for the next decade in Daequan Cook AND a bag of money in order to take a power forward who doesn't rebound. Oh yeah, and their biggest need was rebounding. Stellar work, Billy King, as always.

6. "A" Performances. I don't want to focus entirely on the negatives, so I'll mention the teams that cleaned up as well. Obviously, Portland headlines this group. And I've got Boston in there as well. Seattle gets an A for taking Durant, bringing in Green, bringing Lewis back into play, and completely remaking the roster in one night. They are seriously going to be fun to watch. (And I LOVE that Carl Landry pick.) Washington gets at least an A- for nabbing their new shooting guard, Nick Young (pack your bags, Deshawn Stevenson), at #16 and then adding a Kirilenko/Gerald Wallace/Josh Smith type of forward in Dominic McGuire at #47. I'm not saying McGuire will become a starter or even an immediate rotation player, but I think the offchance that his freakish skill set could transform the Washington defense makes it a great pick. Finally, Atlanta gets an A for not blowing the draft and for taking two guys - Al Horford and Acie Law - who should step in at the 5 and 1, join Joe Johnson, Smith, and Childress/Marvin Williams/Shelden Williams (take your pick) and form a decent starting lineup next year.

I also give the Warriors an A, because they accomplished so much and did it under the radar. They moved Jason Richardson, who is a very good player and appeared to be a "true Warrior" this spring, but who also has a heafty contract and a history of injury problems. That was a true "sell high" move right out of the fantasy hoops playbook. It also means they can play Monta Ellis at the 2 and Stephen Jackson at the 3 with #18 pick Belinelli (who is going to be really good) and possibly Matt Barnes in that mix. And in the frontcourt they now go Harrington, Biedrins, and Brandan Wright. For Wright, this is a dream come true. Nellie knows how to bring young bigs along, the uptempo style will make his transition (pun intended) easier, and he won't have the pressure of playing for UNC Overlord Michael Jordan. I expect Wright to be a steal and for the first time, I actually think G-State can build on the exciting spring. Speaking of the Warriors ...

7. Yi Trade in Order? First, this Yi fellow seems to be a bit of a d-bag if you ask me. Either that, or his agent is secretly Scott Boras deciding to get into hoops and hide behind a Chinese syndicate. Furthermore, don't be surprised if you come back from a bathroom break tomorrow, refresh your web browser, and see that the Bucks and Warriors have made a deal. I have the sneaking suspicion that Larry Harris took Yi at #6 with the knowledge that the #8 pick was for sale (from Charlotte), that the Warriors REALLY wanted Yi, and that G-State might be willing to part with some goodies to make it happen. My hunch is that Harris set this whole thing in motion and informed the Warriors that Yi could be had for Wright Plus. What "Plus" is I have no idea, because Monta Ellis would seem to be off the table in light of the J-Rich trade, but you never know. Maybe a future pick? The premium probably won't be high, but it will be enough to make it worth Harris' time to bother with Yi, rather than just take Wright at #6. But my gut feeling is that Wright is the guy Milwaukee wanted all along and that they will wind up with him soon, along with something else fairly nice.

8. Bulls Do The Best They Can. I'll never forgive Chicago for sitting on that Pau Gasol trade. I've been over this a million times, but it still makes no sense. They basically gave Tyson Chandler away, never used P.J. Brown's oh-so-valuable expiring contract, and hoped that someone would come their way dirt cheap or via the draft once the summer rolled around. Whoops. The #9 pick wasn't going to yield the lowpost scorer they need and it doesn't appear they can make the numbers work for any of the bigs like KG or Jermaine O'Neal. So now they are stuck adding a no-offense big man to a team full of no-offense big men. And this just one year after trading a polished post scorer in LaMarcus Aldridge on the day of the draft. John Paxson must hate lowpost scoring. All of that said, I actually really liked the Noah pick. After all of the backlash, I'm starting to think he could really be an important cog on a title team someday and I think his passing ability will be really valuable in creating open shots for his Bulls teammates. Plus, they really lucked out getting Aaron Gray deep in the draft. He's not all that great, but my bet is that he winds up having just as good of a career as Spencer Hawes. Heck, he immediately becomes the best post option on the Bulls team.

9. Utah Does it Again. Once again, Kevin O'Connor has nabbed a legit rotation guy deep in the second round. Herbert Hill should slide in right next to Paul Millsap as a "surprising" contributor next year. Not only that, but the Jazz nailed their first round pick as well, scooping up the pure-shooting Morris Almond, who would immediately step in as the starting shooting guard if Jerry Sloan didn't hate rookies so much.

10. Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell Are Stoked. I was curious to see how the Pistons would draft this year. They had retread guys (Flip Murray and Lindsay Hunter) providing depth in the backcourt, with young guns bolstering the frontcourt (I'm not counting Antonio McDyess since he's a free agent, nor am I counting Nazr Mohammed, because I think he might have vanished). I wondered if the Pistons would draft help in both areas or if they would show confidence in the young bigs and draft all perimeter players. The answer was loud and clear. Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo went in the first round and the dude from DePaul went late, giving Detroit three young guards to add to the mix. Throw in Alex Acker, who is busy crushing overseas, and the Pistons should be set on the perimeter. Well, provided Billups re-signs, of course.

The Draft (Advisory) Board

Now that most of the boxes are unpacked and we almost have Internet access, it seems like a fine time to start getting up some posts. Oh yeah, and my favorite day of the year, the NBA Draft is just 48 hours away.

To kick things off, I decided to do a mock lottery, except that rather than predict what teams are going to do, I'm going to opine about what they should do. I might take a shot at a mock draft on Thursday, but honestly, how do I know what teams are thinking?

So here is my advisory mock draft:

1. Seattle (from Portland) - Greg Oden. Of the two Northwest teams, Seattle is the one with the clearest need. The Blazers could always use a potentially dominant center, but they also have a current and glaring need at the 3 and no doubt a desire to avoid passing on the Next Jordan ... after they passed on the actual Jordan. The answer to this problem is a swap of the picks. Portland could demand a point guard back, a future pick, pretty much whatever they want. I've always preferred Rashard Lewis as the target, but if they make the move to land Durant, Lewis becomes overkill on the wing. I'll go with Seattle's first round pick in 2008.

(Note: If Portland can get Lewis for Randolph, this trade never happens, they happily take Oden at #1 and roll out a Jack, Roy, Lewis, Aldridge, Randolph, Oden nucleus next year while entertaining offers for Zebo.)

2. Portland (from Seattle) - Kevin Durant. I think deep down they want Durant and if that is the case, they should just take him. But, as mentioned above, they should exact a high price from the Sonics in the process. I still think Oden is the guy for Portland, if only because I think the Bulls would eventually come around on a Nocioni/Gordon for Randolph trade, which would give Portland a nucleus of Jack, Roy, Gordon, Udoka, Nocioni, Aldridge, and Oden. Not bad.

3. Atlanta - Al Horford. After all his mistakes, Billy Knight has been handed the chance to make it all right. He has a no-brainer on the board at 3 and a plethora of point guard options at 11. If he can't execute this draft, he needs to be fired on the spot. As in, before he leaves the building. Horford isn't getting the pub of Oden, Durant, or even Yi, but he is going to be a beast of an NBA player. I don't think his situation is unlike that of Chris Bosh and D-Wade in 2003, during the LeBron/Melo (and, ahem, Darko) draft.

4. Memphis - Joakim Noah. Everyone is talking about Memphis like they are the dregs of the NBA, jsut because they packed it in after Gasol's injury last year and decided to tank. This team is actually pretty good. They obviously miss Shane Battier, but I think Rudy Gay is going to ease that pain considerably this year. I expect Gay to make a huge leap during Year Two. They also have Mike Miller on the other wing and the totally underrated Gasol in the post. Noah is a perfect fit as an active frontcourt player than can guard centers and keep Pau free to roam. I'm sure Conley is tempting here, but they absolutely need to give Kyle Lowery a chance before drafting another Point Guard of the Future.

5. Phoenix (from Boston) - Corey Brewer. I suggested this over a month ago, but I have a feeling Shawn Marion is going to Boston in exchange for Brewer and the eventually expiring contract of Theo Ratliff. The Suns are bummed they missed getting a pick in the 4-6 range, they are desperate to cut salary, and they need to break up this Amare-Marion stalemate. I really don't think they are getting KG for Marion, so they might as well move the Matrix elsewhere. And while he's threatened not to re-sign in Boston, he won't have a choice once he realizes it will take a $5-million pay cut to opt out in 2008. Plus, I think he will rather enjoy playing between Pierce and Jefferson in the downtrodden East. As for the Suns, Brewer steps right into the starting lineup, improves the defense, and gives them a big upgrade over Marion regarding corner three balls.

6. Milwaukee - Mike Conley. Mo Williams is off and running and about to be the 2007-08 version of Mike James, so the Bucks will need a point guard. And preferably a guy that will actually look to pass the ball to Michael Redd. Conley is the guy. Easy pick.

(Note: if the Bucks like Law, they could try to trade down and take him instead. They could probably get Childress and #11 from Atlanta or Maggette and the #14 from the Clippers. Either deal would give them a win-now rookie point guard and solve their small forward problem at the same time. Plus, it would allow Atlanta or L.A. to get Conley. Win-win!)

7. Minnesota - Yi Jianlin. I'm expecting a whopper of a KG trade, but I don't know where and I don't know to whom. My Phoenix-Boston swap above probably restricts the Wolves' ability to deal Garnett, but then again, maybe not, considering KG won't go to Boston and Minny wants Amare for him. Regardless of where KG goes, I think the Wolves will go very young and stockpile talent. That means that Yi at #7 becomes a fantastic pick, from both a basketball and marketing perspective.

8. Philadelphia (from Charlotte) - Branden Wright. The Bobcats are a bit rudderless right now (see: taking Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy last year just because Roy didn't work out for them) and are probably better served dropping down a bit and getting two legit players (with less attention paid to position) than screwing up a shot at keying in on one impact player. The Sixers are a great trade partner because Philly has picks at 12, 21, and 30. It would probably take the former combo to get #8, but 12/30 might do it as well. Either way, this is Philly's golden opportunity to get a frontcourt scorer to go with Igoudala. Wright is slipping on draft boards, but I insist we are looking at the next Chris Bosh. By the summer of 2009, Wright will have joined the likes of Paul Pierce and Caron Butler of absolute studs that slipped for no good reason at all.

9. Chicago - Spencer Hawes. The Bulls would be crazy not to take Wright if he's there (Chad Ford's latest Mock had them passing on him for being too similar to Tyrus Thomas, which is maybe the oddest statement he's ever made, since they are nothing alike), but on my board, he's gone. And the Bulls are also crazy not to snatch up Zach Randolph (who might be the single most ideal person in the NBA to line up next to Ben Wallace, for myriad reasons I won't explain right now), but since they seem unlikely to do so - and probably can't get Gasol or KG now - they are stuck bringing in lowpost scoring via the draft. And that means Hawes, who just isn't going to be that good. Ugh. (Right now, nobody is more disappointed than John Paxson that Roy Hibbert went back to school.)

10. Sacramento - Jeff Green. Artest is supposedly very excited about Reggie Theus and is now BFF's with Mike Bibby after a year of feuding, but I think the Kings should still move him. Maybe they could send him to the Lakers if Kobe is traded. Jerry Buss always wants to have a show in town and perhaps Ron Ron would buy him a year or two. Either way, the Kings need to turn the page. But with Bibby and Miller going nowhere because of albatross contracts, they can't go real young. That makes Green the ideal pick. He's ready to play now, will be a Webber/Divac type passer from the midpost, and really compliments Kevin Martin on the wing.

11. Atlanta - Acie Law. No-brainer. The Hawks could probably dangle Marvin Williams or Josh Childress and move up to #6 to get Conley, but why? Law is ready to lead a team starting yesterday and is just what this moribund franchise needs. Law, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, one of the Williams, and Horford ... that's a decent lineup! In Atlanta! This 3/11 combo is a godsend. When it comes to Law, Atlanta needs to ignore shuttle times and vertical leaps and confidently take the Next Cassell and then try to move someone from the Marvin Williams/Josh Childress/Sheldon Williams group for a veteran big.

12. Charlotte (from Philadelphia) - Nick Young. Still plenty of talent for the 'Cats to select from here at 12. Depending on what their plans are with Gerald Wallace, they could go for a small forward in Al Thorton, Julian Wright, or Thaddeus Young. That said, I think they need to FINALLY draft a shooting guard (enough with playing Ray Felton there).

13. New Orleans - Julian Wright. Young would actually be perfect here as well, but he's gone. Meanwhile, Wright is an absolute steal this late. He's basically a more athletic version of Andrei Kirilenko without the giant mood swings. And for those that would argue Wright plays the same position as Peja, I mean, come on. So there's overlap for all 19 of Peja's games next year, no biggie.

14. L.A. Clippers - Al Thornton. Not only is Thornton good value at 14 and a guy that can step in and play right away, but he also gives the Clippers the flexibility to finally move Corey Maggette. If Portland takes Oden, the Blazers might make a great trade partner, as they are said to be shopping Jarrett Jack. Jack would solve a lot of problems for the Clippers (since he's basically a talented version of Jason Hart, who did a nice job for them) and Maggette would step right in at the 3 in P-Town.

(With each pick, I'm more convinced Portland should take Oden. There are so many opportunities to fill that need at the 3. Maggette is out there, Lewis might be available in a sign-and-trade, and as we've seen, Nocioni is a possibility, and there are a ton of big time 3's in this draft if the Blazers can steal a pick in the 10-15 range. I'm not going to go back and redo the top of this draft, but I officially think they should take Oden and then use Jack, Randolph, and their four second round picks to land a small forward.)

Two bonus picks:

15. Detroit - Thaddeus Young. Everyone is saying Rodney Stuckey because he's the type of combo guard Dumars loves, but those people are forgetting that the Pistons already have that exact player under contract. Alex Acker is tearing up the EuroLeague with Olympiacos in Greece and could be brought back at any time. So I don't think the Pistons should reach for a guy just like that when they can snag the ridiculously talented Young. They might also want to consider Crittendon if they think Billups would really leave town.

16. Washington - Shaun Williams. No one knows where Williams will go and no one knows what the Wizards are going to do, so this seems like a perfect match. He's an immediate upgrade over Etan Thomas and could really transform the Wizards' interior D.

NBA Draft Preview

So, I know Adam's pretty busy moving in, so I'll get things started with just over 48 hours until the Draft. I think this year's draft is exciting, as always, but beyond the top two choices, there seems to be a lot of unsurety (is that a word) regarding who goes where, and who will develop. There are question marks, as always, but the trend seems to have moved away from jumping at raw Euros, and GMs seem to be looking more for college winners (it's about time) and some good raw athletes. Indeed, as you'll undoubtedly notice in my preview below, most of the top prospects share a common trait: they're all very athletic. It's a new, fast-paced NBA, and teams are looking for players that will fit into that model. So here are some of the top prospects, tossed into categories where I feel they're appropriate. I'm hoping to put up a couple more categories later today or tomorrow, so check back again soon.


Seven Impact Players for Next Year

Greg Oden-There’s not a whole lot I need to say about Oden that hasn’t been said already. He’s a beast defensively; he’ll provide good help-side defense, along with altering and blocking plenty of shots. He runs the court well, and with his (supposedly) healthy wrist, he can supplement his dunks with range out to about 15 feet. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll help right away. Blahblahblah, you’ve already heard all this. He’ll be an immediate presence on D and the boards.

Kevin Durant-Similar to Oden, pretty much everything’s been said on Durant. He can score in a number of different ways, and is offensive arsenal is quite impressive. He’s also an underrated rebounder, and is athletic enough to be a good defender. I expect he’ll average about 18 ppg this season.

Corey Brewer-I love this kid’s game. He put on a show in this year’s NCAA tournament. He’s extremely athletic and has long length (great fake term). He’ll be a lock-down defender, and his rangy arms will allow him to get plenty of steals. He also has decent ball-handling skills, and is a good shooter.

Jeff Green-I want to like his game more than I do. He does everything well, though nothing spectacular. He’s 6’10” but athletic enough to cover most small forwards. He’ll be a solid NBA player right away, but never a star. In my mind, kind of a slightly poorer man's Brewer, so I'm a bit surprised that recent mock drafts have him going ahead of Brewer. Could this be a "Joey Graham before Danny Granger" type of scenario?

Acie Law-Law may not be the most athletic point guard in the draft, but this guy is just plain a winner. Everyone who saw his incredible performance against Texas this past season was awed by his will to put his team on his back will it to victory (or at least another overtime). He gets to the hoop well, and knows how to run an offense. He’ll be a solid floor leader for a long time.

Al Horford and Joakim Noah-I tabbed both members of the Florida frontcourt together. Horford is definitely a better NBA prospect, because he combines a prototypical power forward body with athleticism. He’ll bang down low, can rebound, score in the post, and passes well. He’s not a star, but he’ll be a very good player for many years. As for Noah, his offensive game is much rawer than Horford’s, but he’s very athletic, and as we’ve all heard countless times, a great motor. He’ll never be able to put the ball on the floor or hit a jumper consistently, but he’ll get plenty of rebounds and hustle points, and provide defense and energy.


Five Future Impact Players

Brandan Wright-Wright is extremely athletic and has all the tools to be a potential star in the NBA. It seems like every year, there’s a player like this at or near the top of the draft (Rudy Gay, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, etc.). He runs the court well and has a good offensive game near the basket. If he can add some strength, and maintain focus (there are questions about his intensity), he has All-Star potential.

Yi Jianlian-As an athletic 7-foot foreigner, there are some that think he’s the next Dirk Nowitzki. Other comparisons have been to Toni Kukoc (though Yi is more athletic) and Tim Thomas (hopefully Yi cares more about defense). I haven’t seen enough of him against real competition to weigh in, but he certainly has the tools to be a good player. He can score from the outside, but needs to add strength to become a better interior player. However, he’s a hard worker, and with his athleticism, he can develop defensively. Regardless, it’s hard to tell how far along he is in his development, since he’s anywhere from 19 to 22 years old, depending on which version of his birth certificate you believe (I'm going with 22).

Mike Conley-He’s drawn comparisons to both Chris Paul and Deron Williams because of his pure point guard skills. Personally, I think a better comparison is to Isiah Thomas because of his ability to spend the majority of a game effortlessly distributing the ball to get his teammates good looks, and then take over and score down the stretch when his team needs him. Obviously, he’s not going to be the all-world point that Isiah was, but he’s a prototypical point guard who doesn’t turn the ball over and makes the players around him better, and he has potential to be an All-Star once he gets the NBA game down.

Julian Wright-I’m always partial to Chicago guys, but “the other Wright” has great athleticism (notice a trend here?) and an NBA body. He’s a great on-the-ball defender, is quick, and passes well. He plays with a lot of energy, and once he develops a better jumper, he’ll be a very good all-around player.

Nick Young-This guy actually already has all the tools (explosiveness, ability to run the court and get to the hoop, jumper, ballhandling skills) to be a good swingman soon. However, he lacks intensity and work ethic, and may need a year or two to learn that in the NBA, you can’t get by on pure ability alone.


Six Potential Sleepers

Alando Tucker-After getting “Player of the Year” consideration for the first half of this past college season, Tucker has really fallen off the radar. This is largely due to the fact that NBA scouts wonder what position he can play. However, Tucker is athletic, strong, and confident. He knows how to score, and while he’ll be a bit undersized at the 3, he’s just plain a good basketball player, and he’ll be a solid rotation player for whoever is smart enough to take him in the second round.

Jared Dudley-Similar to Tucker, Dudley was a top college player who has scouts worried about his status as a “tweener.” Also like Tucker, Dudley is strong and plays hard, and will be a decent role player in the NBA.

JamesOn Curry-Curry is great at getting to the hoop, can hit the NBA 3, and is a good passer. Unfortunately, he’s a bit skinny and small for an NBA 2. Nonetheless, he’ll be able to provide good scoring off the bench, and is athletic enough to be a halfway decent defender, if someone can motivate him to care.

Josh McRoberts-I know it sounds silly to put this former McDonald’s All-American and supposed top-five pick in the “sleeper” category, but his stock has dropped so much he may be in danger of falling out of the first round. Yes, we learned that McRoberts doesn’t yet have the ability to be a star player, and he certainly couldn’t carry Duke this past season, but he’s very athletic and agile for a big man, and quite skilled, too. He can score down low along with range out to about 18 feet, and is a good passer and rebounder. Somebody will get a steal in him late in the first round, as long as he can motivate himself to play.

Chris Richard-The forgotten man from the Florida frontcourt, I was impressed with what I saw from Richard in the tournament. While perhaps a bit undersized, he’s strong and tough, and he’ll be an able and willing bruiser in the league.

Curtis Sumpter-He was supposed to be a first-round talent, until torn ACLs made scouts question his ability to ever play pro ball. However, he’s battled back, made himself into a decent 3, and can still score and rebound. With his knees, he’s a risk, but somebody who takes a flier on him as a free-agent signee may end up with a huge steal.

Hiatus

I apologize for the extended absence, but was moving across the country and have had neither time nor Internet access. As it is, I'm typing this standing up, with "borrowed" broadband, while keeping one eye out the window for the moving truck. By Friday I should be rolling with some Draft coverage.

In the meantime, bullet point thoughts on the NBA (since I'm considering making this an NBA only blog - more on that later):

- Kobe Bryant is crazy.

- Are the playoffs over?

- I actually really liked the Mike James trade for the Rockets. Juwan Howard isn't any good and is the type of guy that always seems to demand 25 crappy minutes of PT. Now Houston can aggressively pursue a power forward with their exception (I suggested Mikki Moore about a month back) and they will be far more athletic next season. James was great in his first stint in Houston a few years back and is a perfect combo guard to add speed and playmaking to the Rockets backcourt. I know this trade was pretty minor, but I think it will wind up being a big deal.

- Interesting hire by the Kings. Reggie Theus never really impressed me with having a sharp basketball mind back when he would do Pepperdine games for Fox Sports West, but as we all know, being a good broadcaster and being a good coach are usually not related at all (see: Rivers, Doc).

I will be back with more later, but I need to post this before I lose my wireless signal.

See Below

My only comment after Game One of Cavs-Spurs is "see below." The Cavs need to play Gibson and keep Hughes on the bench. End of story. John Hollinger spent 1,500 words over on ESPN basically saying "let Boobie spin." It is too obvious to break down all over again.

So, see below.

Let Boobie Spin

I've received quite a few emails of the APB variety, wondering where I've been lately (okay, one email). I figure if the NBA can take a four-day vacation in June, so can I. Actually, that's not the real reason. The real reason is a combination of life events that are chewing up all available hours.

However, I did want to drop in on the eve of the NBA Finals long enough to post two things I got right. If you think it is lame to brag about topics of this manner, I can respect that, but I'm doing it anyway. I get so few things right that I'm going to take this opportunity to bask.

1. Cavs in the Finals. I picked them to win it all at the beginning of the regular season (note also that I tabbed Dirk as the MVP for the sole reason that the Mavs would win the most games - now that is kind of eerie), and then put them in the Finals in my playoff predictions. So I'm feeling good about that. Now if only I hadn't tabbed the Rockets to beat the Spurs in the WCF and then win it all ...

2. Daniel Gibson being sweet. In fairness, at one point I said he should be in the D-League, but for the most part, I've been singing his praises ... even if the main reason is that he's NOT Larry Hughes.

Speaking of Gibson, this whole "Boobie" nickname is uprorious. Apparently his mom gave him the nickname when he was a kid and would go home crying after getting beat up. (Although that still doesn't make much sense to me. Is a boobie someone who cries? Was she trying to say boo-boo, like he had a wound? I'm confused.) Regardless of HOW he got the name, it lends itself to some great comedy.

In fact, when I asked my brother where the nickname came from, he replied, "Maybe his teammates think he looks like Boobie Miles." I came back with a hopeful, "Really?" To which he replied, "I sure hope so."

That doesn't seem to be the case, but it didn't stop us from laughing for a very long time. Why? Because we've long used the line, "If you wanna win, let Boobie spin" as an intro for any cocky act of athleticism. Namely, during a scramble golf tournament during which we treated our teammates to a "If you wanna win, let Boobie spin" boast right before each shot.

Where does it come from? The answer is the movie Friday Night Lights, where the horribly injured star running back Boobie Miles begs to get back in the game by telling this very thing to his coach. He lays it out there: if you want to win, put me in the game.

Of course, Boobie does go in the game and then suffers a career-ending injury. So, admittedly, you have to kind of overlook the events in the movie to truly enjoy how funny the line can sound.

Or maybe it isn't funny and we are just insane. Totally possible. But it doesn't change the fact that this random movie quote has suddenly become appropriate for the NBA Finals. Because if the Cavs want to win, they need to let Boobie spin.

Gibson needs to attack the rim and get to the line. He needs to use his speed and confidence to square off with Tony Parker (Larry Hughes - even healthy - will be even more worthless against the Spurs, unless the Cavs go to a three-guard set and he somehow learns to play basketball). He needs to pump in threes. In short, he needs to be everything he was in Games Three through Six against Detroit.

If Boobie spins, the Cavs have a chance.

Screw it, I'm taking them. Cavs in Seven.

Epic LeBron

So, LeBron goes 48-9-7 tonight, scores the last 25 Cavs points (and 29 of final 30), and etches his name in the history books. It was a performance that demands gushing blog posts, hyperbole, and even a few Wooden-turned-Walton quotes (like "doing your best when your best is needed!").

Unfortunately, I was on a flight to Denver and missed the game, so will have to hold off on comments until I get back on Sunday and watch it on TiVo. Fortunately the very nice Marriott I am staying at has free Internet access, so I'm able to at least post about how I'm not going to post.

I can tell you what publicity hound is smarting right now though. Here's a hint: he has worn two different numbers the past two years and has a propensity to talk out of both sides of his mouth.

Who would have thought that something on the basketball court would rise above the Kobe and NBA Draft chatter?

Oh, and how are all the LeBron Bashers (numbering in the thousands just last week) doing right about now? Crickets.

(Last thing: I think the Suns just assured themselves a title in the Nash era today by inking Steve Kerr as their new GM. He will make the moves to get this done and it will keep D'Antoni from trading all of their draft picks to sign someone like Marcus Banks again.)