Finding Some (Eventual) Favorite Players

As we inch ever closer to turning the calendars to the year 2008, that means just one thing: it is time to start paying attention to college hoops. After all, January just means we're six months away from the '08 NBA Draft. So I decided to take advantage of a big day of college hoops to find a few favorite players. It always makes the NCAA Tournament more fun and is helpful on an NBA blog to start keeping tabs on the stars of tomorrow. Bear in mind that I am thinking purely about the future of each player at the next level when watching and making my evaluations. I was bummed that Arizona's Jerryd Bayless missed the Memphis game with a knee injury, but I still got to see several guys that really stood out. I didn't get to see many of the big name players like O.J. Mayo, Darrell Arthur (or anyone else from Kansas), DJ Augustine, the Louisville big guys, or Eric Gordon, but nobody needs me to point those guys out anyway. So consider the following list more of a mix of sleepers, unknowns, and rising prospects. Here are 10 guys that caught my eye today:

Blake Griffin, Oklahoma. I was very excited to get my first look at a pair of freshman that NBADraft.net seems to love - Austin Daye of Gonzaga and Griffin. I was far more impressed with the latter of the two. Daye showed nice range on his jump shot and seems like a pretty smart player, but he's way too thin and passive (he couldn't even get into the post against a small Tennessee team) to be an NBA player anytime soon. Griffin, on the other hand, showed real ability coupled with incredible tenacity. At the 12 minute mark of the Sooners' matchup with West Virginia, Griffin was leaving the game because he'd just finished doing his best contortionist impression going for a rebound. It was a play that landed him a permanent spot on the all "Heart and Hustle" squad and gave him his 13th rebound at that stage in the contest. A few minutes later he dove for a loose ball, dribbled the ball while he got up, then made an incredible floating finger roll on the baseline. Sick! Griffin plays like an undersized power forward just trying to earn a spot on the roster, but he's got legit 6'9"-6'10" size, a really good wingspan, advanced ball-handling skills, and enough explosiveness to play above the rim when necessary. He strikes me as a rich man's Paul Millsap, which is high praise indeed. I'd take him in the top five of this summer's draft, no question.

(By the way, Oklahoma has a guy named Longar Longar that is extremely fun to watch and not just because he has the same first and last name. He tries to dunk everything in sight and is fond of blocking shots into the 15th row. I never thought I'd say this, but this Sooners team is shaping up to me one of my personal favorites for 2007-08. What a difference a coaching change can make.)

Raymar Morgan, Michigan State. Morgan seems destined to be one of those guys that gets overlooked coming out of school and turns out to be a "huge surprise" as a second round pick. He had 24 today for the Spartans but he's really impressed me with his versatility. Morgan is extremely athletic and can finish around the rim, but is also very bright and able to make plays for others. And that doesn't even account for his fantastic work on the defensive end. Nobody talks about him in terms of his NBA future, but I think he'll be a starter for a playoff team sometime down the road. (To be honest, he remind me of Travis Outlaw of the Blazers - scroll down for previous posts and you will see why this is a very high compliment.)

(By the way, the Michigan State backcourt of Kalin Lucas and Travis Walton combined for 20 assists and zero turnovers, which is downright insane. Pencil Michigan State in as one of my early season favorites for the Final Four, along with Tennessee, Texas A&M, and North Carolina.)

Chase Budinger, Arizona. Jerryd Bayless was the real star for Arizona tonight, because in his absence, they really struggled to get decent point guard play. And Jordan Hill is another Wildcat that I think can contribute at the next level, but I really liked what I saw out of Budinger. Everyone knows about this guy and his defense remains an issue, but he has become a deadly shooter in addition to his ballyhooed athleticism and innate ability to move without the ball. He's also a lot better at seeing the floor than I realized. He availed himself very well in a very difficult environment tonight - playing virtually by himself on the road against Memphis. He never lost his cool, never forced the issue, and managed to keep Arizona in the game despite the absence of Bayless.

Robert Dozier, Memphis. Nobody ever talks about Dozier when it comes to the Tigers, but every Memphis game I watch, he winds up being the key guy. All the hype is about Derrick Rose (I've seen him four times and have yet to be blown away), Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Joey Dorsey, but Dozier seems like only one who consistently performs in his role. He's got great length and hops, blocks shots, can score in the post, and even hit threes. He reminds me a lot of Hakim Warrick and I think he's really being overlooked in all the talk about his teammates.

Michael Beasley and Bill Walker, Kansas State. Everyone knows about Michael Beasley, who is looking like the frontrunner for both the #1 pick in the '08 Draft and also the Player of the Year award in college hoops this season. But I feel like Walker is a guy getting lose in the shuffle a little bit. He spent his freshman year coming back from a knee injury and the first part of this year learning to play with Beasley as the #2 guy on a team. And while his jumper leaves something to be desired, I'm actually pretty impressed by the guy. He's got good size and is very physical for a perimeter player. Plus, he looks like he's getting his hops back. Because we've known about him forever and he carries a bit of baggage, I see him dropping in the draft (whenever he ultimately comes out) and being a steal for somebody.

Tyler Smith, Tennessee. The Vols are looking very much like a Final Four team with their quickness, depth, and relentless pressure. BJ Prince (cousin of Tayshaun and former Pepperdine star Tommie - go Waves!) is very smooth and Chris Lofton is the most recognizable Tennessee player, but I like Tyler Smith the most at the next level. He needs to add range on his jumper, but he reminds me a lot of Julian Wright in regard to his feel for the game, quick hands, and athleticism. Best case scenario - he's Josh Smith in three years. Worst case scenario - you have a guy that hustles like crazy, plays unselfish basketball, and has a great feel for the game, but just can't make a shot to save his life (in other words, a slightly better version of Ruben Patterson).

K.C. Rivers, Clemson. Nobody talks about this guy at all, but he strikes me as a legit NBA prospect. He scores in very efficient fashion and does a little bit of everything else along the way. He shoots over 40% from behind the arc and is a tremendous rebounder for a swingman. I think he's flying under the radar and will be heard from before its all said and done.

Joe Alexander, West Virginia. I tuned in to the OU-WVU game to watch Griffin, but Alexander showed something as well. He's got a very nice jump shot that he can hit off the catch or off the driblle, works off of screens nicely, and really surprised me with his ability to get into the lane and create shots for himself and others. He also showed some serious stones, hitting a turnaround jumper off of a post-up with 39 seconds left to tie the game. Honestly, I'd never even heard of him until I saw this game, but I came away convinced that he's the most underrated player in the country. (Admittedly, this is based on the fact that I'd never heard of him, which could be more my fault than anything, but whatever.)

DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M. I've been hearing great things about Jordan, who has vaulted into the top five of most mock drafts, and I finally got a chance to see him play a little bit today. I don't know that he can be a contributer in his first year as a pro, but with the emergence of Andrew Bynum, you'd be crazy not to take a shot at a big, fast, talented 7-footer. Jordan reminds me a lot of Bynum in the way he can run the floor, but I don't know that his hands are as soft or his feet as quick. He disappeared for stretches today and seems to take plays off (unfortunately, this is also a trait he shares with Bynum). The good news is that he jumps more like Dwight Howard (he had one ridiculous alley-oop), so he might actually have more potential on the defensive end. We shall see.

Immediate Draft Thoughts

Never go to bed on an empty stomach. Never let the sun set on an argument. Never wait until the next day to post some thoughts on the NBA Draft.

Words to live by.

Anyway, here are some quick hits from my favorite sports day of the year.

1. Kevin Pritchard Owns the NBA Draft. One year after getting pretty much all the good players in the 2006 Draft, the Blazers' GM once again dominated the event. He resisted the Siren Song of Kevin Durant in order to pick the artist that will eventually be known as Four-Time Finals MVP Greg Oden at #1. This was significant not only because Oden is going to be the Next Gen Tim Duncan in terms of interior dominance, but because it gave Portland maximum flexibility to shape the rest of the roster. This was evident when the Blazers peddled Zach Randolph in the middle of the first round in exchange for Channing Frye and Steve Francis' skeleton. On paper, this seemed a bit puzzling, as you would imagine there being a better market for a 24-10 guy that can crush on the low block. But apparently the Bulls aren't biting and the Mavs don't want to overpay for a guy they would bring off the bench. And bringing Rasheed Wallace back to town? Forget it. So the Randolph market wasn't that great, which makes sense when you remember that his high school coach once said something along the lines of: every day that I read the paper and see that Zach didn't die or wasn't involved in a death is a good day. I guess a few GM's heard that one as well.

Anyway. The other part of the deal that seems bad at first blush is that Frye is really a slightly lesser version of LaMarcus Aldridge. And Steve Francis blows. So where is the value? The value is that they can buy out Francis and get a bit of short term savings and some huge long term cap relief when Stevie Franchise (now THAT has become a hilarious nickname) comes off the books in 2009. I sincerely doubt he will ever step foot in the Rose Garden's home locker room. As for Frye, he may or may not have a home in the rotation or even in a Frankensteinish three-bigs front court with two gazelle-like 6'11 guys flanking Oden. Doesn't matter. Because Frye has value around the league and can be packaged with other assets to bring in the 3 that the Blazers need. My hunch is that they bring Steve Blake back to run the point, put Roy, Udoka, Aldridge, and Oden in the starting lineup, let Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez, Demetris Nichols (for his shooting), Josh McRoberts, and Joel Przybilla come off the bench, and then use Frye and Martell Webster to unload Darius Miles and bring a legit small forward back in return. That's just my hunch.

Speaking of Nichols and McRoberts, the rest of the night was superb for Portland. They got a top-20 player in McRoberts with pick #37 (classic case of an overexposed Duke guy dropping too far - he's no Carlos Boozer and I actually don't think he's all that great, but he will make people pay for this), the shooter they desperately needed with pick #53, and somehow managed to add Taurean Green, Petteri Koponen (who I felt like I knew, thanks to Henry Abbots' work over at True Hoop), AND Rudi Feranandez ... all for a handful of cash. Are you serious? They have so many assets and parts and guys stashed overseas (Koponen and Fernandez join Brit Joel Freeland across the pond) that it is a little ridiculous. In three years, they are going to have a lineup of:

PG - Sergio Rodrigeuz (next Tony Parker)
SG - Brandon Roy
SF - Ime Udoka (next Bruce Bowen, except not dirty)
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge
C - Greg Oden
6th - Rudy Fernandez (next Ginobili)

Throw in tough-minded coach Nate McMillan and savvy GM Pritchard and you can see why the Blazers are shaping up to be the next San Antonio. And that doesn't even consider all the moves they might make, from trades, to free agent signings, to draft picks.

Okay, I'd better move on to point #2.

2. Celtics Do Well. I don't care what Stephen A. Smith or Mark Jackson say, Boston did a great job tonight. In fact, I'm still incredibly confused by the lashing they gave the C's on national television. Am I missing something? Do they think that Boston traded the rights to Durant rather than Jeff Green? I mean, I'm a Jeff Green fan, but it's not like he's a mortal lock to the make the Hall of Fame or anything. And to get rid of Wally Z in the process? Did Delonte West become the Bionic Man in the past month? Seriously, I am perplexed. If I'm not mistaken, Boston was able to free up the point guard spot for Rajon Rondo, keep Paul Pierce happy, add Big Baby to the middle, draft Gabe Pruitt for backcourt depth, and pick up Ray Freaking Allen. And that's not a great night? I know Allen is almost 32, but last time I checked, 32 wasn't the new 40. Steve Nash won his second MVP at age 32 and was even better last season at 33. Plus, Allen is a jump shooter, which means he will probably hold up better than most shooting guards as he gets older. The guy has at least three great seasons left in him. And with Rondo, Allen, Pierce, and Jefferson, the Celtics become an immediate contender in the East. PLUS, they didn't have to include Theo Ratliff's expiring contract in the deal, which gives them a fantastic trade chip for the summer of even next year's deadline. I give them an A+ on the night, yet the ESPN guys were just killing them. Strange. Then again, the ESPN guys were calling Portland the biggest losers of the draft last year and we all know how that turned out.

3. Could Phoenix Be Any Cheaper? This is getting ridiculous. If my man Sarver can't afford to pay rookies, he might want to sell the club. For the second year in a row, Phoenix sold a first round pick to Portland for straight cash money. The Blazers must be in heaven. Find a Spanish player you like? Buy him from the Suns! Steve Nash probably feels like choking someone right now. Quick, get KG to the desert before they both go insane. (Note: I did like both the Tucker and Strawberry picks. Those guys are immediate upgrades over James Jones and Marcus Banks.)

4. Houston, You Have a Problem. Cheesy pun alert! But seriously, what were the Rockets doing? They might need a power forward more than any team in the last decade, they were on the board with several intriguing (if not totally safe) prospects sitting there in Big Baby, McRoberts, and Nick Fazekas. Instead, they took Aaron Brooks, who I like, but becomes their fourth undersized guard, joining Rafer Alston, Luther Head, and the recently acquired Mike James. Did they forget that they JUST traded Juwan Howard for James? Were the Houston execs reenacting scenes from Scarface by snorting mounds of coke before their pick? I want an explanation or a trade or something that justifies this. And then to compound the lunacy, they took some Australian guard just one pick before nemesis Utah grabbed super sleeper Herbert Hill. I give Houston an F- for this draft.

5. Other "F-" Performances.. The Lakers, for taking a point guard who isn't ready (Javaris Crittenton) one year after taking a point guard who wasn't ready. Milwaukee, for taking a guy who doesn't even want to set foot in your city and might set off a diplomatic showdown that has the makings of 24: Day Seven. And, of course, Philadelphia. Although, technically, the late Byers pick probably bumps them to more like a D+, I am still putting them in this group. Leave it to Billy King to have THREE picks in the first round of one of the deepest drafts in years and come away with zero starters. Al Thornton was available and ready to start right away; King passed. Julian Wright was a steal at #12; King passed. Instead, he went with project Thaddeus Young, who simply isn't going to be as good as either of those guys. Then, so worried was he that Miami might take Jason Smith (yeah, right), he doled out some cash to swap picks. Which means that they gave up Igoudala's running mate for the next decade in Daequan Cook AND a bag of money in order to take a power forward who doesn't rebound. Oh yeah, and their biggest need was rebounding. Stellar work, Billy King, as always.

6. "A" Performances. I don't want to focus entirely on the negatives, so I'll mention the teams that cleaned up as well. Obviously, Portland headlines this group. And I've got Boston in there as well. Seattle gets an A for taking Durant, bringing in Green, bringing Lewis back into play, and completely remaking the roster in one night. They are seriously going to be fun to watch. (And I LOVE that Carl Landry pick.) Washington gets at least an A- for nabbing their new shooting guard, Nick Young (pack your bags, Deshawn Stevenson), at #16 and then adding a Kirilenko/Gerald Wallace/Josh Smith type of forward in Dominic McGuire at #47. I'm not saying McGuire will become a starter or even an immediate rotation player, but I think the offchance that his freakish skill set could transform the Washington defense makes it a great pick. Finally, Atlanta gets an A for not blowing the draft and for taking two guys - Al Horford and Acie Law - who should step in at the 5 and 1, join Joe Johnson, Smith, and Childress/Marvin Williams/Shelden Williams (take your pick) and form a decent starting lineup next year.

I also give the Warriors an A, because they accomplished so much and did it under the radar. They moved Jason Richardson, who is a very good player and appeared to be a "true Warrior" this spring, but who also has a heafty contract and a history of injury problems. That was a true "sell high" move right out of the fantasy hoops playbook. It also means they can play Monta Ellis at the 2 and Stephen Jackson at the 3 with #18 pick Belinelli (who is going to be really good) and possibly Matt Barnes in that mix. And in the frontcourt they now go Harrington, Biedrins, and Brandan Wright. For Wright, this is a dream come true. Nellie knows how to bring young bigs along, the uptempo style will make his transition (pun intended) easier, and he won't have the pressure of playing for UNC Overlord Michael Jordan. I expect Wright to be a steal and for the first time, I actually think G-State can build on the exciting spring. Speaking of the Warriors ...

7. Yi Trade in Order? First, this Yi fellow seems to be a bit of a d-bag if you ask me. Either that, or his agent is secretly Scott Boras deciding to get into hoops and hide behind a Chinese syndicate. Furthermore, don't be surprised if you come back from a bathroom break tomorrow, refresh your web browser, and see that the Bucks and Warriors have made a deal. I have the sneaking suspicion that Larry Harris took Yi at #6 with the knowledge that the #8 pick was for sale (from Charlotte), that the Warriors REALLY wanted Yi, and that G-State might be willing to part with some goodies to make it happen. My hunch is that Harris set this whole thing in motion and informed the Warriors that Yi could be had for Wright Plus. What "Plus" is I have no idea, because Monta Ellis would seem to be off the table in light of the J-Rich trade, but you never know. Maybe a future pick? The premium probably won't be high, but it will be enough to make it worth Harris' time to bother with Yi, rather than just take Wright at #6. But my gut feeling is that Wright is the guy Milwaukee wanted all along and that they will wind up with him soon, along with something else fairly nice.

8. Bulls Do The Best They Can. I'll never forgive Chicago for sitting on that Pau Gasol trade. I've been over this a million times, but it still makes no sense. They basically gave Tyson Chandler away, never used P.J. Brown's oh-so-valuable expiring contract, and hoped that someone would come their way dirt cheap or via the draft once the summer rolled around. Whoops. The #9 pick wasn't going to yield the lowpost scorer they need and it doesn't appear they can make the numbers work for any of the bigs like KG or Jermaine O'Neal. So now they are stuck adding a no-offense big man to a team full of no-offense big men. And this just one year after trading a polished post scorer in LaMarcus Aldridge on the day of the draft. John Paxson must hate lowpost scoring. All of that said, I actually really liked the Noah pick. After all of the backlash, I'm starting to think he could really be an important cog on a title team someday and I think his passing ability will be really valuable in creating open shots for his Bulls teammates. Plus, they really lucked out getting Aaron Gray deep in the draft. He's not all that great, but my bet is that he winds up having just as good of a career as Spencer Hawes. Heck, he immediately becomes the best post option on the Bulls team.

9. Utah Does it Again. Once again, Kevin O'Connor has nabbed a legit rotation guy deep in the second round. Herbert Hill should slide in right next to Paul Millsap as a "surprising" contributor next year. Not only that, but the Jazz nailed their first round pick as well, scooping up the pure-shooting Morris Almond, who would immediately step in as the starting shooting guard if Jerry Sloan didn't hate rookies so much.

10. Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell Are Stoked. I was curious to see how the Pistons would draft this year. They had retread guys (Flip Murray and Lindsay Hunter) providing depth in the backcourt, with young guns bolstering the frontcourt (I'm not counting Antonio McDyess since he's a free agent, nor am I counting Nazr Mohammed, because I think he might have vanished). I wondered if the Pistons would draft help in both areas or if they would show confidence in the young bigs and draft all perimeter players. The answer was loud and clear. Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo went in the first round and the dude from DePaul went late, giving Detroit three young guards to add to the mix. Throw in Alex Acker, who is busy crushing overseas, and the Pistons should be set on the perimeter. Well, provided Billups re-signs, of course.

The Draft (Advisory) Board

Now that most of the boxes are unpacked and we almost have Internet access, it seems like a fine time to start getting up some posts. Oh yeah, and my favorite day of the year, the NBA Draft is just 48 hours away.

To kick things off, I decided to do a mock lottery, except that rather than predict what teams are going to do, I'm going to opine about what they should do. I might take a shot at a mock draft on Thursday, but honestly, how do I know what teams are thinking?

So here is my advisory mock draft:

1. Seattle (from Portland) - Greg Oden. Of the two Northwest teams, Seattle is the one with the clearest need. The Blazers could always use a potentially dominant center, but they also have a current and glaring need at the 3 and no doubt a desire to avoid passing on the Next Jordan ... after they passed on the actual Jordan. The answer to this problem is a swap of the picks. Portland could demand a point guard back, a future pick, pretty much whatever they want. I've always preferred Rashard Lewis as the target, but if they make the move to land Durant, Lewis becomes overkill on the wing. I'll go with Seattle's first round pick in 2008.

(Note: If Portland can get Lewis for Randolph, this trade never happens, they happily take Oden at #1 and roll out a Jack, Roy, Lewis, Aldridge, Randolph, Oden nucleus next year while entertaining offers for Zebo.)

2. Portland (from Seattle) - Kevin Durant. I think deep down they want Durant and if that is the case, they should just take him. But, as mentioned above, they should exact a high price from the Sonics in the process. I still think Oden is the guy for Portland, if only because I think the Bulls would eventually come around on a Nocioni/Gordon for Randolph trade, which would give Portland a nucleus of Jack, Roy, Gordon, Udoka, Nocioni, Aldridge, and Oden. Not bad.

3. Atlanta - Al Horford. After all his mistakes, Billy Knight has been handed the chance to make it all right. He has a no-brainer on the board at 3 and a plethora of point guard options at 11. If he can't execute this draft, he needs to be fired on the spot. As in, before he leaves the building. Horford isn't getting the pub of Oden, Durant, or even Yi, but he is going to be a beast of an NBA player. I don't think his situation is unlike that of Chris Bosh and D-Wade in 2003, during the LeBron/Melo (and, ahem, Darko) draft.

4. Memphis - Joakim Noah. Everyone is talking about Memphis like they are the dregs of the NBA, jsut because they packed it in after Gasol's injury last year and decided to tank. This team is actually pretty good. They obviously miss Shane Battier, but I think Rudy Gay is going to ease that pain considerably this year. I expect Gay to make a huge leap during Year Two. They also have Mike Miller on the other wing and the totally underrated Gasol in the post. Noah is a perfect fit as an active frontcourt player than can guard centers and keep Pau free to roam. I'm sure Conley is tempting here, but they absolutely need to give Kyle Lowery a chance before drafting another Point Guard of the Future.

5. Phoenix (from Boston) - Corey Brewer. I suggested this over a month ago, but I have a feeling Shawn Marion is going to Boston in exchange for Brewer and the eventually expiring contract of Theo Ratliff. The Suns are bummed they missed getting a pick in the 4-6 range, they are desperate to cut salary, and they need to break up this Amare-Marion stalemate. I really don't think they are getting KG for Marion, so they might as well move the Matrix elsewhere. And while he's threatened not to re-sign in Boston, he won't have a choice once he realizes it will take a $5-million pay cut to opt out in 2008. Plus, I think he will rather enjoy playing between Pierce and Jefferson in the downtrodden East. As for the Suns, Brewer steps right into the starting lineup, improves the defense, and gives them a big upgrade over Marion regarding corner three balls.

6. Milwaukee - Mike Conley. Mo Williams is off and running and about to be the 2007-08 version of Mike James, so the Bucks will need a point guard. And preferably a guy that will actually look to pass the ball to Michael Redd. Conley is the guy. Easy pick.

(Note: if the Bucks like Law, they could try to trade down and take him instead. They could probably get Childress and #11 from Atlanta or Maggette and the #14 from the Clippers. Either deal would give them a win-now rookie point guard and solve their small forward problem at the same time. Plus, it would allow Atlanta or L.A. to get Conley. Win-win!)

7. Minnesota - Yi Jianlin. I'm expecting a whopper of a KG trade, but I don't know where and I don't know to whom. My Phoenix-Boston swap above probably restricts the Wolves' ability to deal Garnett, but then again, maybe not, considering KG won't go to Boston and Minny wants Amare for him. Regardless of where KG goes, I think the Wolves will go very young and stockpile talent. That means that Yi at #7 becomes a fantastic pick, from both a basketball and marketing perspective.

8. Philadelphia (from Charlotte) - Branden Wright. The Bobcats are a bit rudderless right now (see: taking Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy last year just because Roy didn't work out for them) and are probably better served dropping down a bit and getting two legit players (with less attention paid to position) than screwing up a shot at keying in on one impact player. The Sixers are a great trade partner because Philly has picks at 12, 21, and 30. It would probably take the former combo to get #8, but 12/30 might do it as well. Either way, this is Philly's golden opportunity to get a frontcourt scorer to go with Igoudala. Wright is slipping on draft boards, but I insist we are looking at the next Chris Bosh. By the summer of 2009, Wright will have joined the likes of Paul Pierce and Caron Butler of absolute studs that slipped for no good reason at all.

9. Chicago - Spencer Hawes. The Bulls would be crazy not to take Wright if he's there (Chad Ford's latest Mock had them passing on him for being too similar to Tyrus Thomas, which is maybe the oddest statement he's ever made, since they are nothing alike), but on my board, he's gone. And the Bulls are also crazy not to snatch up Zach Randolph (who might be the single most ideal person in the NBA to line up next to Ben Wallace, for myriad reasons I won't explain right now), but since they seem unlikely to do so - and probably can't get Gasol or KG now - they are stuck bringing in lowpost scoring via the draft. And that means Hawes, who just isn't going to be that good. Ugh. (Right now, nobody is more disappointed than John Paxson that Roy Hibbert went back to school.)

10. Sacramento - Jeff Green. Artest is supposedly very excited about Reggie Theus and is now BFF's with Mike Bibby after a year of feuding, but I think the Kings should still move him. Maybe they could send him to the Lakers if Kobe is traded. Jerry Buss always wants to have a show in town and perhaps Ron Ron would buy him a year or two. Either way, the Kings need to turn the page. But with Bibby and Miller going nowhere because of albatross contracts, they can't go real young. That makes Green the ideal pick. He's ready to play now, will be a Webber/Divac type passer from the midpost, and really compliments Kevin Martin on the wing.

11. Atlanta - Acie Law. No-brainer. The Hawks could probably dangle Marvin Williams or Josh Childress and move up to #6 to get Conley, but why? Law is ready to lead a team starting yesterday and is just what this moribund franchise needs. Law, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, one of the Williams, and Horford ... that's a decent lineup! In Atlanta! This 3/11 combo is a godsend. When it comes to Law, Atlanta needs to ignore shuttle times and vertical leaps and confidently take the Next Cassell and then try to move someone from the Marvin Williams/Josh Childress/Sheldon Williams group for a veteran big.

12. Charlotte (from Philadelphia) - Nick Young. Still plenty of talent for the 'Cats to select from here at 12. Depending on what their plans are with Gerald Wallace, they could go for a small forward in Al Thorton, Julian Wright, or Thaddeus Young. That said, I think they need to FINALLY draft a shooting guard (enough with playing Ray Felton there).

13. New Orleans - Julian Wright. Young would actually be perfect here as well, but he's gone. Meanwhile, Wright is an absolute steal this late. He's basically a more athletic version of Andrei Kirilenko without the giant mood swings. And for those that would argue Wright plays the same position as Peja, I mean, come on. So there's overlap for all 19 of Peja's games next year, no biggie.

14. L.A. Clippers - Al Thornton. Not only is Thornton good value at 14 and a guy that can step in and play right away, but he also gives the Clippers the flexibility to finally move Corey Maggette. If Portland takes Oden, the Blazers might make a great trade partner, as they are said to be shopping Jarrett Jack. Jack would solve a lot of problems for the Clippers (since he's basically a talented version of Jason Hart, who did a nice job for them) and Maggette would step right in at the 3 in P-Town.

(With each pick, I'm more convinced Portland should take Oden. There are so many opportunities to fill that need at the 3. Maggette is out there, Lewis might be available in a sign-and-trade, and as we've seen, Nocioni is a possibility, and there are a ton of big time 3's in this draft if the Blazers can steal a pick in the 10-15 range. I'm not going to go back and redo the top of this draft, but I officially think they should take Oden and then use Jack, Randolph, and their four second round picks to land a small forward.)

Two bonus picks:

15. Detroit - Thaddeus Young. Everyone is saying Rodney Stuckey because he's the type of combo guard Dumars loves, but those people are forgetting that the Pistons already have that exact player under contract. Alex Acker is tearing up the EuroLeague with Olympiacos in Greece and could be brought back at any time. So I don't think the Pistons should reach for a guy just like that when they can snag the ridiculously talented Young. They might also want to consider Crittendon if they think Billups would really leave town.

16. Washington - Shaun Williams. No one knows where Williams will go and no one knows what the Wizards are going to do, so this seems like a perfect match. He's an immediate upgrade over Etan Thomas and could really transform the Wizards' interior D.

NBA Draft Preview

So, I know Adam's pretty busy moving in, so I'll get things started with just over 48 hours until the Draft. I think this year's draft is exciting, as always, but beyond the top two choices, there seems to be a lot of unsurety (is that a word) regarding who goes where, and who will develop. There are question marks, as always, but the trend seems to have moved away from jumping at raw Euros, and GMs seem to be looking more for college winners (it's about time) and some good raw athletes. Indeed, as you'll undoubtedly notice in my preview below, most of the top prospects share a common trait: they're all very athletic. It's a new, fast-paced NBA, and teams are looking for players that will fit into that model. So here are some of the top prospects, tossed into categories where I feel they're appropriate. I'm hoping to put up a couple more categories later today or tomorrow, so check back again soon.


Seven Impact Players for Next Year

Greg Oden-There’s not a whole lot I need to say about Oden that hasn’t been said already. He’s a beast defensively; he’ll provide good help-side defense, along with altering and blocking plenty of shots. He runs the court well, and with his (supposedly) healthy wrist, he can supplement his dunks with range out to about 15 feet. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll help right away. Blahblahblah, you’ve already heard all this. He’ll be an immediate presence on D and the boards.

Kevin Durant-Similar to Oden, pretty much everything’s been said on Durant. He can score in a number of different ways, and is offensive arsenal is quite impressive. He’s also an underrated rebounder, and is athletic enough to be a good defender. I expect he’ll average about 18 ppg this season.

Corey Brewer-I love this kid’s game. He put on a show in this year’s NCAA tournament. He’s extremely athletic and has long length (great fake term). He’ll be a lock-down defender, and his rangy arms will allow him to get plenty of steals. He also has decent ball-handling skills, and is a good shooter.

Jeff Green-I want to like his game more than I do. He does everything well, though nothing spectacular. He’s 6’10” but athletic enough to cover most small forwards. He’ll be a solid NBA player right away, but never a star. In my mind, kind of a slightly poorer man's Brewer, so I'm a bit surprised that recent mock drafts have him going ahead of Brewer. Could this be a "Joey Graham before Danny Granger" type of scenario?

Acie Law-Law may not be the most athletic point guard in the draft, but this guy is just plain a winner. Everyone who saw his incredible performance against Texas this past season was awed by his will to put his team on his back will it to victory (or at least another overtime). He gets to the hoop well, and knows how to run an offense. He’ll be a solid floor leader for a long time.

Al Horford and Joakim Noah-I tabbed both members of the Florida frontcourt together. Horford is definitely a better NBA prospect, because he combines a prototypical power forward body with athleticism. He’ll bang down low, can rebound, score in the post, and passes well. He’s not a star, but he’ll be a very good player for many years. As for Noah, his offensive game is much rawer than Horford’s, but he’s very athletic, and as we’ve all heard countless times, a great motor. He’ll never be able to put the ball on the floor or hit a jumper consistently, but he’ll get plenty of rebounds and hustle points, and provide defense and energy.


Five Future Impact Players

Brandan Wright-Wright is extremely athletic and has all the tools to be a potential star in the NBA. It seems like every year, there’s a player like this at or near the top of the draft (Rudy Gay, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, etc.). He runs the court well and has a good offensive game near the basket. If he can add some strength, and maintain focus (there are questions about his intensity), he has All-Star potential.

Yi Jianlian-As an athletic 7-foot foreigner, there are some that think he’s the next Dirk Nowitzki. Other comparisons have been to Toni Kukoc (though Yi is more athletic) and Tim Thomas (hopefully Yi cares more about defense). I haven’t seen enough of him against real competition to weigh in, but he certainly has the tools to be a good player. He can score from the outside, but needs to add strength to become a better interior player. However, he’s a hard worker, and with his athleticism, he can develop defensively. Regardless, it’s hard to tell how far along he is in his development, since he’s anywhere from 19 to 22 years old, depending on which version of his birth certificate you believe (I'm going with 22).

Mike Conley-He’s drawn comparisons to both Chris Paul and Deron Williams because of his pure point guard skills. Personally, I think a better comparison is to Isiah Thomas because of his ability to spend the majority of a game effortlessly distributing the ball to get his teammates good looks, and then take over and score down the stretch when his team needs him. Obviously, he’s not going to be the all-world point that Isiah was, but he’s a prototypical point guard who doesn’t turn the ball over and makes the players around him better, and he has potential to be an All-Star once he gets the NBA game down.

Julian Wright-I’m always partial to Chicago guys, but “the other Wright” has great athleticism (notice a trend here?) and an NBA body. He’s a great on-the-ball defender, is quick, and passes well. He plays with a lot of energy, and once he develops a better jumper, he’ll be a very good all-around player.

Nick Young-This guy actually already has all the tools (explosiveness, ability to run the court and get to the hoop, jumper, ballhandling skills) to be a good swingman soon. However, he lacks intensity and work ethic, and may need a year or two to learn that in the NBA, you can’t get by on pure ability alone.


Six Potential Sleepers

Alando Tucker-After getting “Player of the Year” consideration for the first half of this past college season, Tucker has really fallen off the radar. This is largely due to the fact that NBA scouts wonder what position he can play. However, Tucker is athletic, strong, and confident. He knows how to score, and while he’ll be a bit undersized at the 3, he’s just plain a good basketball player, and he’ll be a solid rotation player for whoever is smart enough to take him in the second round.

Jared Dudley-Similar to Tucker, Dudley was a top college player who has scouts worried about his status as a “tweener.” Also like Tucker, Dudley is strong and plays hard, and will be a decent role player in the NBA.

JamesOn Curry-Curry is great at getting to the hoop, can hit the NBA 3, and is a good passer. Unfortunately, he’s a bit skinny and small for an NBA 2. Nonetheless, he’ll be able to provide good scoring off the bench, and is athletic enough to be a halfway decent defender, if someone can motivate him to care.

Josh McRoberts-I know it sounds silly to put this former McDonald’s All-American and supposed top-five pick in the “sleeper” category, but his stock has dropped so much he may be in danger of falling out of the first round. Yes, we learned that McRoberts doesn’t yet have the ability to be a star player, and he certainly couldn’t carry Duke this past season, but he’s very athletic and agile for a big man, and quite skilled, too. He can score down low along with range out to about 18 feet, and is a good passer and rebounder. Somebody will get a steal in him late in the first round, as long as he can motivate himself to play.

Chris Richard-The forgotten man from the Florida frontcourt, I was impressed with what I saw from Richard in the tournament. While perhaps a bit undersized, he’s strong and tough, and he’ll be an able and willing bruiser in the league.

Curtis Sumpter-He was supposed to be a first-round talent, until torn ACLs made scouts question his ability to ever play pro ball. However, he’s battled back, made himself into a decent 3, and can still score and rebound. With his knees, he’s a risk, but somebody who takes a flier on him as a free-agent signee may end up with a huge steal.

Oden or Durant: Depends on Rashard Lewis?

Despite the fact that LeBron is quitely breathing some life back into the NBA Playoffs and the U.S. Open is coming up in June, the "Oden or Durant?" question just became the most riveting sports angle for the next month. I've enjoyed reading all the comments weighing in on the subject, but there is an X Factor that is laregely being missed in all this and his name is Rashard Lewis.

Most accounts say that Lewis' feelings for Nate McMillan range somewhere between "upmost respect" and "huge man crush." If Seattle is going to get value for him in a sign-and-trade, it would most likely be with Portland. So it would seem that both the Sonics and Blazers have an incentive to get these pieces sorted out properly. Since it is Portland with the #1 pick, they have the upperhand, but I think Seattle will be willing to pay the price to get this ironed out. And to me, "ironed out" means that one team winds up with Oden/Lewis and the other with Randolph/Durant. The pairings of Oden/Randolph or Lewis/Durant don't make nearly as much sense, especially if the former is in Portland (where MY man crush LaMarcus Aldridge roams the paint) and the latter is in Seattle where Ray Allen is already hoisting oh so many threes. It would behoove both teams to sort this out and create the most ideal pairings.

So ...

If it is to be Oden and Lewis in Portland, that means the Blazers can engineer a sign-and-trade that nets them Lewis in exchange for Randolph. It gives Portland a pure center to pair with a pure power forward (I don't share the growing concern that Oden will get in LaMarcus' way or stunt his growth - he is far less likely to do so than Randolph and the best case scenario has these two emerging as a Next Gen Duncan/Robinson) and Roy and Lewis on the wings. For now, Jack can handle the point guard duties until Sergio is ready or they find somebody else or bring back Steve Blake or make a move for Conley or whatever. Meanwhile, the Sonics feel great about getting Durant, move him right in as a better, more versatile, and more tenacious version of Lewis (one of the great draft steals of all time, by the way), and then get something instead of nothing in the form of a premium lowpost scorer.

On the other hand, if it is going to be Durant and Randolph in Portland (and there are certainly strong cases to be made for that duo, along with Aldridge, Roy, etc.), that means Oden is going to Seattle and that the Sonics would be likely to pony up the cash to keep Lewis and certainly Rashard would be more likely to stay if he knew Oden would be roaming the paint. But if you are Portland, there is no need to simply take Durant #1 when you know how much Seattle would love to have Oden. Certainly, the Blazers can exact a handsome reward for simply swapping picks and getting the guy they really want. I'm not sure who Nate would want to reel back in from his old roster, but if it is Ridnour, Watson, Collison, Wilcox, or whoever, I'm sure Portland could have its choice, meaning they could keep Randolph for one more year (or shop him to a team like the Bulls or Mavs), take the guy they want in eventual Uber Star Durant, AND snag a few more assets in the process. Call it the Ridnour Tax for swapping picks.

I just find it so interesting that the two Northwest teams already have the McMillan connection, were already going to be talking trade in regard to Lewis and Randolph, and now have strangely interchangable picks atop an unbelievable draft. The I-5 corridor is about to get pretty busy. It is definitely advantage Pritchard and Portland, but whatever price Seattle has to pay, they are likely to do it because they will come out ahead as well.

Fascinating stuff, I think. And all the more reason why we can't really analyze who the top pick should be without considering the Lewis Factor.

More Blazers

Three more thoughts on a night that Blazers fans may very well recall as one of the top two in franchise history (along with the 1977 title) when it is all said and done.

1. Boston Hates Portland. Could one team be any more bitter about another team right now? (Well, except for maybe the Suns and the Spurs.) Last year Portland swindled the Celtics by trading Bassy Telfair and a washed up Theo Ratliff for the #7 pick and a washed up Raef LaFrentz. It basically wound up being Telfair for Roy, which might turn out to be one of those trades that ends up on a "Top 10 Most Lopsided Trades" list someday. Now a year later the Blazers have snuck in and grabbed the top two pick that Celtics fans felt was rightfully theirs (although I'm not quite sure why). Those are a couple of beat downs, right there.

2. Stashing Some Good Luck. Nobody remembers this now, but Portland had the worst record last year and lost out on the top overall pick, sliding to #4. And they sure picked a good year to do it! The only guy who seemed to be a lock to be a good-to-great pro player was Roy and they got him with that acquired pick (via a trade with Minnesota). And the guy they nabbed at #4, LaMarcus Aldridge, has a decent shot to be the best player from the 2006 Draft. So I'd say it worked out pretty well. And a year later, they got the opposite result, nabbing the top pick in one of the most crucial drafts in recent memory. Really, they didn't get lucky this year, they got lucky that they were unlucky last year and now everything is balancing out. Or something like that.

3. Pritchard is the Man. Like most NBA fans, GM Bashing is a favorite hobby of mine. That said, there are a few guys that I love as general managers. Bryan Colangelo is obviously quite good. RC Buford has been great in San Antonio. Rod Thorn of the Nets is pretty solid. And I have a growing man crush on what Kevin O'Connor is doing in Utah. Kevin Pritchard definitely needs to be added to that list. By all accounts, he was the crafty wizard that orchestrated Portland's draft day domination last year, which - in light of the GM performances by John Nash and Bob Whitsitt before him - came as such a shock that the ESPN studio guys ripped the Blazers purely out of habit the night of the draft, before coming to their senses (or just being proven wrong, I'm not sure which). Not only that, but I read an interesting interview Pritchard gave to the Draft Express guys, and I loved the fact that he isn't trying to downplay this situation. The guy is embracing the moment and the challenge, and as a fan, that is all you can ask for. I'll leave you with this quote, which he offered when asked to put the pick in perspective:

Huge. Unbelievably huge. Franchise making. I don't know how to make it any bigger than that. That's pretty big, huh? Bigger than the Rose garden, bigger than our organization, bigger than the city of Portland. The whole state and the whole area revolve on the Portland trailblazers. As we go, so does the whole city so to speak. This has a chance to really change our organization and the city. Rip city again, here we come.

Lottery Madness!

I have to say, that lottery lived up to the hype. Even with some wooden personalities on hand, a butcher MC job by Mark Jones (including his interview with "Brenden Roy"), and a very short running time, the Draft Lottery special managed to pack a punch. This is because the events that transpired were INSANE.

Here are the highlights:

1. Blazers Get Top Pick. Duh. The Blazers have been doing an amazing job of revamping this team, they fleeced everyone last year, and now they have the top pick with which to work. The assumption is Oden, but Durant would be a perfect fit at the 3. Portland has Roy, Aldridge, and Randolph right now and slotting in Durant would make them an immediate threat to win the division. There has also been some talk that they might move the pick, but that is lunacy. Portland would be better off trading Zach Randolph to a team like Chicago or Dallas, in exchange for something of need or perhaps future picks. I suggested this in a previous post, but a Ben Gordon/Andres Nocioni for Zach Randolph trade would seemingly help both Chicago and Portland. The Blazers with Roy at the point, Gordon at the 2, Nocioni at the 3, Aldridge at the 4, and Oden at the 5 would be a ridiculous squad. Cap friendly, young, skilled, defensively sound (Gordon could guard point guards, Roy could guard 2's), and with great character and work ethic. No matter how you slice it, this was a magical night for the Blazers.

(And I really can't do it justice, but this has been building. The Roy/Aldridge draft last year dramatically altered the course of this franchise. They also saw Randolph come back from microfracture surgery and play well, experienced a great story in Ime Udoku, and then watched their young guys grow up down the stretch last year. Blazers fans were VERY excited for next season. And now this. Portland is back on the NBA scene in a big way and the excitement is palpable; I can feel it coming through my inbox. Plus, it works out nice for me that this is my hometown team. The only bit of bad news for Blazers fans is that any sort of sign-and-trade with Rashard Lewis is probably off the table now that the Sonics got the #2 pick, unless Portland can entice them with Randolph.)

[Update: just talked shop with some big Blazers fans and they all feel that the Sonics getting the #2 was actually great luck. Now Seattle can replace Lewis with Durant at the 3 and move Rashard in a sign and trade, maybe for Randolph. It seems plausible that Portland could roll into camp with Jack, Roy, Lewis, Aldridge, and Oden as their starting lineup. Wow.]

2. Suns Get Shut Out. Lost in the drama surrounding the top pick was Phoenix missing out on the most valuable #4 pick in years. The Suns needed the Hawks to stay out of the top three in order to get a shot at Al Horford or Corey Brewer. Now they have to be content with their pair of late first rounders. Safe to say it has been a tough week for Phoenix.

3. Hawks Roller Coaster. Wild night for Atlanta. They go in assuming they are going to lose their pick, then suddenly see Nique standing up in the top three. Going to commercial break, Hawks fans had to know that they had better odds than either Seattle or Portland and were no doubt thinking, "wait, we are going to get Oden or Durant!" Nope. Even when the Hawks win, they lose. (At least with the #3 and #11 they should be able to add Mike Conley Jr. and a big, or a big and Acie Law IV. So that is good news.)

4. Tankers Get No Love. Other than the Hawks, who clearly tanked down the stretch and yet still managed to sneak into the top three, the big tanking teams all got absolutely punished. The Bucks and Celtics were the most obvious of this group and found themselves in the 6 and 5 spots, respectively. I'm sure Boston fans are going ballistic tonight, considering the way they missed out on Duncan in 1997, but they sort of deserve it for openly rooting for their team to tank games. I admired Portland because they played hard to the very end, with Brandon Roy fighting through injuries to stay on the floor. As for Memphis, they did a more subtle form of tanking, but did it much earlier when they fired Fratello, put in Tony Barone, and basically ran pickup basketball the rest of the year. I don't feel bad at all for the teams that tanked to improve draft position, only to find themselves out of the top three.

5. Seattle Basketball Might Be Saved. What a moment for Seattle fans. Just when it looked like all hope would be lost, they landed a top 2 pick and might have a shot at salvaging this whole thing. The interesting thing is that Portland could probably do just as well to draft Durant, but Seattle desperately needs Oden. Adding KD to Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis is a bit of overkill, whereas Oden would anchor an offense-first team. I wonder if the two Northwest teams might talk trade over the next coupe of weeks. Portland could probably exact a significant payment from Seattle in order to swap picks.

The Wright Stuff

More cheesy headlines! I'm not going to say "ala ESPN" anymore though, because now that the Leader has acquired my favorite basketball blog, True Hoop, I am calling off the boycott and accepting an uneasy alliance.

However, speaking of ESPN, I have to take exception with the way my guys Tony and Wilbon portrayed Brandan Wright today on PTI. They weren't particularly rough on him or anything, but the insinuation is that he's a bit of a stiff, or at least a few years away from contributing. This seemed to reflect an overall sentiment in big media toward Wright that is less than glowing. He is typically viewed as "too thin" or "lacking passion" or "not ready," and he's certainly seen as a tremendous drop off from Oden and Durant.

While I won't argue the last point, I contend that Wright is going to be a tremendous NBA talent. In many other years, I think he would make for a very solid #1 overall pick and I promise you that one of the reasons the Hawks and Suns will be closely watching the ping-pong balls is that Wright would look awful good in either uniform. In fact, draftniks still seem to think of Wright quite highly. Draft Express, NBA Draft.Net, and Chad Ford of ESPN all have him slotted as the #3 prospect in the draft.

I had my own doubts about Wright earlier in the season when it seemed like he was getting by purely on potential, kind of like how Marvin Williams parlayed potential into being the #2 pick. However, my opinion changed after, you know, watching him play. He was clearly North Carolina's best player down the stretch. He dominated the ACC Tournament. And he answered questions about both size and fire by throwing down two-handed dunks, blocking shots, and crashing the glass.

The whole situation reminds me an awful lot of Chris Bosh in 2003. That year, Bosh was the skinny lefty frosh from the ACC who was a long way behind LeBron, Melo, and (gulp) Darko on every draft board. It was seen as a huge drop off. How did that work out? Bosh (and Dwyane Wade) are right there with Melo at the least and arguably with LeBron as well. 2003 was a great draft, not just at the top, but throughout the top 10 and even deeper. The 2007 Draft seems to be shaping up the same way, with Wright playing the exact same role in all this.

I'm sure that a team like the Bucks would love to get Oden or Durant. But isn't a guy who could be the Next Bosh a pretty solid consolation prize?

Keeping An Eye On #4

In the Year of Oden/Durant, the attention has obviously focused mainly on the top two picks in the upcoming NBA Draft and for good reason. However, the lingering secondary issue is that of the #4 picks. We all know that the Hawks have to give a top-3 protected pick to the Suns as part of the Joe Johnson deal, so if the ping-pong balls go crooked for Atlanta, Phoenix will be looking at the rare opportunity to bolster a 61-win team with a top five pick in one of the most loaded drafts in years.

Atlanta finished the year with the fourth-worst record in the league and has 13.7% of the ping-pong balls. So they aren't completely out of luck, but if things shake out by the numbers, they will be on the outside looking in and Phoenix will have the #4 pick.

So the question becomes: what will Phoenix do with it? I see the Suns going one of four different directions with this glorious opportunity:

1. Trade the pick(s) for a star. Phoenix also has the #24 pick (Cavs pick, sent to Boston in the Jiri Welsch trade - which has to sting Cleveland more than a little bit - and then traded last year for Rajon Rondo) and its own pick at #29. Considering what a deep draft this is, there is an opportunity to tantalize a rebuilding team. If Sarver is willing to pay luxury tax dollars next year, the Suns could turn picks into another star player and really make a title run. Or they could attach picks to Marion (who seems to want out anyway) and get back a younger star with a more affordable deal. I've been thinking a sign-and-trade with Seattle for Rashard Lewis (in exchange for the #4 and #29 picks, plus Boris Diaw) would work for both teams, but can't be bothered to run the salaries, so I have no idea if this would work.

2. Go big, then small for depth. Despite the Kurt Thomas trade and the Marcus Banks signing, the Suns are still incredibly thin. They would have been better off not making those moves, keeping Q, drafting David Lee in 2005, and then taking Rondo last year, as detailed here. But that ship has sailed and now they have the chance to reload on the fly. The biggest needs are for a rebounding, shot blocking big man (it is pretty sad that they still miss Stephen Hunter after two years), and of course a backup point guard not named Marcus Banks. The prevailing theory in the NBA is that you go big first, which makes sense here, because they are sure to get a stud at #4. With Oden and Durant going off the board at 1 and 2, that leaves Al Horford and Brandan Wright sitting there for the next two teams. It seems likely that the next team would take one of them, leaving Phoenix to have the other. Horford would seem to be a slightly better match because of his toughness, but Wright was an underrated shot blocker at UNC during his freshman year. Adding either guy to the frontline rotation would be huge. From there, Phoenix can address its perimeter situation with the #24 and #29 picks. They could either spend both picks on point guards, use one on a point and one on a wing, or move one of the picks like they did last year.

3. Go small, then big for depth. The problem with simply snatching Horford or Wright at #4 is that this is the rare year in which there might be more decent big men available late than there are guards, especially point guards. I guess it is possible that Acie Law could slide to #24, but it seems remote. They could reach for Aaron Brooks or Taureen Green at #29. But these guys all pale in comparison to Mike Conley Jr. Conley would be a reach at #4, but when you get a gift of a lottery pick, why not spend it on the guy you really want and need? Guys like Tiago Splitter, Jason Smith, Aaron Gray, Josh McRoberts, and Marc Gasol have all been projected by some sites to last until late in the first round, so it seems Phoenix can add some frontcourt depth at #24. And with swingmen galore in this draft, they can add an NBA talent even as late as #29.

4. Draft an upgrade. The other option for Phoenix is to worry about depth late and instead look to draft a player that can actually push for a starting spot and possibly beat out a weak link. Nash, Barbosa, Marion, and Amare are all secure in their minutes as long as they wear orange and purple. So the only place you could look to upgrade the six-man rotation (normally I would focus on starters, but Barbosa really extends their lineup to six starters) is with Raja Bell or Boris Diaw. The key to Diaw is his versatility, so even though guys like Horford and Brandan Wright project to be better pure big men, I don't think you go there for the upgrade. So that leaves Julian Wright (over Diaw) and Corey Brewer (over Bell). Which one seems like a better bet? That seems easy; it is Brewer. He is basically a (much) taller and (much) more skilled version of Bell. He would give Phoenix the same tenacious defense, deep range (although he will need to improve that stroke), and fire that Bell brings, but with more length, skill, and athleticism. It would be like blending Bell and Tayshaun Prince, really.

So those seem to be the options. Phoenix could also try to move down just a few spots and gamble on grabbing their guy under options 3 and 4, but the only point of that would be to acquire more assets, and it doesn't seem that they can afford anymore of those.

If I had to bet, I would anticipate them going the safe route, keeping the pick, and drafting Horford or B. Wright. This would allow them to brace for a possible shake up with Marion, and leave them two late first rounders and their mid-level exception to try to get that elusive backup point guard.

Good and Bad for the Blazers

With the Blazers it always seems like a good news/bad news situation. Or just a bad news situation. Right now it is the former. On the good side of the ledger is the fact that Brandon Roy is an absolute stud and gets better seemingly every night. On the bad side is the recent news that Lamarcus Aldridge might have a heart condition. Two awesome rookies mined from the same weak draft class - one piece of good news, one piece of bad.

The same is true of the upcoming NBA Draft. Currently projected to land the 7th pick, Portland had some great news in the fact that Corey Brewer is an absolutely perfect fit for their current roster. Then they got some bad news when Brewer decided to make the Final Four his personal coming out party. Now there is a real chance that Brewer could go somewhere between picks 3-and-6 and leave the Blazers holding the bag. And while there are certainly consolation prizes to be had in such a deep draft, there isn't another player after Oden/Durant that could help Portland with what seems to be an inevitable run at the playoffs next year as much as Brewer. If Aldridge is healthy and allowed to bloom next to Randolph, and if Roy continues to evolve, Portland will be a sleeper in the West. However, they are still one piece away - a swingman who can defend, attack off the dribble, and hit outside shots. In other words, Corey Brewer. Guys like Brandan Wright, Al Horford, and Yi Jianlian are all potential stars, but they would be buried behind the Blazers' front court depth.

Perhaps if Jeff Green declares for the draft, that news would push things back over to the good news side of the ledger, as Portland coujld be relatively confident that either Green or Brewer would make it to them at #7.

Of course, they will have to get my non-tanking, hard-nose favorite player Brandon Roy to stop carrying them to victory, lest they fall any further down the draft lottery.

NBA Draft Winners, Losers, and Steals

The Draft just ended, but I have to throw down my immediate thoughts on the action.

Winners:

- Memphis. I'm not a Rudy Gay fan, but the Grizzlies still had a great draft. To bring back Swift, snag a guy that was at one time the top player on the board, pick up Kyle Lowry (will end up being the best PG in this draft), and then top it off by absolutely stealing Alexander Johnson (should have gone in the top 20) ... that is an unbelievable night. Prediction: Memphis will not be swept in the playoffs next year.

- Portland. When was the last time the Blazers had a good draft? It's been so long that the ESPN crew didn't realize the shift and kept berating them like it was 2000-2005. It was amazing to sit there and listen to Greg Anthony and Stephen A. Smith criticize Portland after they had made some impressive moves. To turn the #4 pick and Sebastian Freaking Telfair into Aldridge and Roy is some amazing work. Throw in Dritz's boy Freeland and Spanish Chocolate and the Blazers are finally showing signs of life. I really think they got the two best players (at least for the short term) in the draft.

- Cleveland. For a team with a late first round pick and a second round pick, the Cavs hit this one out of the park. Daniel Gibson underachieved last year at Texas, but there's a reason he was once a top five projected pick - he can play. The knock on him is that he's not a pure point, but when you have LeBron, the reality is that he's going to initiate the offense most of the time anyway. I think Gibson is a fantastic pick. And don't even get me started on Shannon Brown. I LOVE this guy. My brother, Drew, said the other day that all he wanted from this draft was for the Cavs to get Brown. Mission accomplished. The Cavs just gained 7 wins by drafting these guys. Goodbye Eric Snow crunchtime minutes, goodbye Flip Murray bricks.

- Chicago. I like the Thomas pick (and the fact that they manipulated Portland for an extra player in the process), but what I really like is the fact that adding Tyrus to the roster allows them to shop Tyson Chandler and his faulty back. If they can turn Chandler and one of their three small guards into a legit low-post scorer, they could move into the top four in the East next year. The Hinrich-Deng-Thomas trio is an incredible and youthful base and with all that cap space, Chicago is poised to be really, really good in the near future. Three years ago they had to live with the fact that they screwed up what could have been an Elton Brand-Brad Miller-Ron Artest-Jason Richardson-Kirk Hinrich lineup and were staring into an abyss. It's hard to believe that they have recovered so quickly.

- Houston. People were killing the Gay-for-Battier trade, but I thought it was a good move for the Rockets. They got rid of Swift, which is nice because it will allow Van Gundy to avoid the inevitable manslaughter indictment that was looming on the horizon. They turned the eighth pick in what has been repeatedly called a weak draft into a legit NBA role player that will serve as a perfect compliment to T-Mac and Yao. Seriously, if you could pick the perfect guy to insert into that lineup, it would probably go Josh Howard and then Shane Battier. I don't understand how anyone could NOT praise this trade, let alone kill it. Good job by both teams involved.

- We the viewers. Thanks to Tyrus Thomas' purple cardigan, we all walk away with a special memory.

Losers:

- ESPN. I'm convinced that ESPN's studio coverage of the NBA could not be worse if they tried. First, you've got Stephen A. Smith. He has always been a lunatic with the yelling, but last night he just looked like a moron. He didn't know what he was talking about 90% of the time. Feel free to watch some film on these guys, Stephen A. Next is Dick Vitale screaming about all his ACC love children, and doing it from hell, apparently (did you see that fiery backdrop?). Then you've got Stuart Scott's unbearable interviews and the fact that he called Patrick O'Bryant "Bryant." The list goes on and on. Just atrocious. Not even solid efforts from the core group of Dan Patrick, Greg Anthony, and Jay Bilas could save the show.

- New York. What a shocker. Just when things can't get worse for the Knicks, they take a mid-second rounder with the 20th pick (some guy name Blackmon) and then add their 412th pseudo point guard with their next selection (Mardy Collins). Just an amazing turn of events. I am convinced that Isiah Thomas has set aside any real goals and is now doing everything for the sole purpose of providing comedy to the world at large.

- Minnesota. Let me see if I have this straight. Brandon Roy fell to the Wolves at #6, they quickly snatched him up, became an instant playoff contender in the process ... and then they traded him for Foye (who they could have had already). Is that right? Why? Why not just take Foye in the first place? Did they get anything else at all? Is the rest of the trade simply not being reported? I am so confused. Kevin McHale had great post moves in his playing days, but he has rocks for brains. He's almost as bad as Isiah. That said, Foye is still sick, so maybe they will luck out in spite of McHale's best efforts.

- Boston. Maybe this will all work out for Boston, but for the life of me, I can't figure out what in the world they were doing. First they trade what is looking like a very nice #7 pick (either one of the big six were going to drop, or Foye - a perfect fit for the C's - was going to be there) to the Celtics for Telfair (two years removed from being one of the shakiest #13 picks of all time), then they trade away a future first round pick for the rights to Rajon Rondo and Brian Grant's corpse. Let's break this down further, forgetting for the moment the absolutely worthless fact that Raef LaFrentz and Theo Ratliff changed teams or the somewhat sad fact that my boy Dan Dickau is on like his 9th team in four years (and his second time with Portland). If Boston was going to target Rondo, why give up Foye for Telfair? And after trading for Telfair, why give up a first round pick in what will no doubt be a better draft (regardless of which year it happens) for yet another point guard? I am so confused by all of this. They could have had Foye and a future pick and instead they have two point guards that can't shoot. Sweet. Maybe they are simply planning to turn all of this into Allen Iverson, but until they do, this is one big mess.

- David Stern. He looked like an idiot announcing all those trades we already knew about. And he looked like an even bigger idiot slapping lids on players when we already knew they had been traded. It's his own fault too, because he's the one that set up the lame protocol that forces guys to walk up there and act like they just got drafted by one team, when everyone in the world knows they've been traded to someone else. Just stupid.

- Stromile Swift. Okay, you are Stromile. You get picked #2 in 2000, in what is known then and now as one of the worst drafts of all time. Because this year's draft is supposed to be weak, people are constantly making comparisons to your draft year and calling it the "Kenyon Martin and Stromile Swift Draft," which has to sting, because it obviously implies that you suck. On top of that, you get traded on draft night and it becomes very evident that you are merely a throw-in for salary cap purposes. If not that, the only other option is that Houston demanded that Memphis take you as part of the deal. That cuts deep, because not only does it indicate that the team you just signed with last year (Houston) doesn't want you anymore, but it also seems that your old team (that didn't match the offer in the first place) doesn't really want you back either. I mean, to go from the #2 pick (purely on potential) to a highly sought-after mid-level free agent (purely on unrealized potential) to the throw-in on a Shane Battier trade? That is one rough journey. I don't see this ending well for Stro.

Steals:

- Roy. Anytime you get the best player in the draft for what amounts to Sebastian Telfair, well, that is a pilfer. And somehow the ESPN guys were killing Portland for its moves. That makes total sense.

- Ronnie Brewer. Unless Brewer turns out to be the second coming of Reese Gaines, I think the Jazz got a steal at #14. Brewer was being touted as one of the 10 best players in this draft class all year, even up to the day of the draft. Next thing you know, one of the best 2 guards available is sitting there for a team in desperate need of a 2 guard. Amazing! Expect Brewer to start, be very good, and for the Jazz to not only make the playoffs but emerge as one of the best young teams in the West (provided AK-47 stays healthy, of course).

- Marcus Williams. Don't take this one the wrong way. Unlike the ESPN crew, who acted like Williams had been shot and left bleeding on the side of the road, I don't feel bad for him at all. It's his own fault that he went from possible #5 pick all the way to #22. That's what happens when you steal laptops, act like a cocky a-hole, and let yourself get fat. That said, I've believed that Williams was going to be a tremendous NBA point guard from the moment I saw him play. He can sit back, learn from Kidd, provide the Nets with needed depth and playmaking, and eventually take over. Of course, New Jersey turned around and blew their good fortune by taking Josh Boone instead of Alexander Johnson, which is why they aren't listed in the "Winners" category.

- Kyle Lowry. You already know my feelings here.

- Shannon Brown. Ditto.

- Mo Ager. I love Spartans, as you can see. Perhaps I am inspired by the Battle of Thermopylae and the great King Leonidas, but I just love these swingmen from MSU. Ager isn't really a steal in the traditional sense, but given his perimeter defensive abilities, the Mavs may have landed a potential D-Wade Stopper. And we are all very aware of how important that would be.

- Alexander Johnson. I still have no idea how he fell to #45. Furthermore, I have no idea how two teams - Indiana and Portland - could watch him fall in their laps and then trade him. Amazing. I am 95% certain that this guy is going to be a starter in the league at some point.

- Guillermo Diaz. For weeks we heard that the Kings wanted him at 19 and when they went for the more prolific scorer in Quincy Douby (and the better name, albeit in a close call), Diaz went flying down the board. I think the Lakers would have taken him at 26, but they had to take Farmar when he dropped to them. That meant that the Clippers, who had no business getting any quality players without a first round pick, got Diaz and Paul Davis (another Spartan!). The odds of them getting an eventual starter from this draft are now actually pretty good. Which is shocking.

There you have it. Those are my initial thoughts. Look for the official report when Dritz and I grade every NBA team on their picks.

Five Impact Players for Next Year

1. Brandon Roy. He’s the most NBA-ready of the players in the draft. He actually measured even taller (6’6 ½”) and tested as more athletic than most expected at the recent combine. Roy is a complete player on both ends of the floor, can get to the hoop, shoot, handle the rock, and create shots for his teammates. He’ll contribute next year.

2. Shelden Williams. Williams isn’t the most athletic guy in the draft, but he’s a great rebounder and shotblocker, and he can score with his back to the basket. He’s benefited from playing in Coach K’s system for the past 4 years. He’ll be a solid player next year, and for the next 10 years, but don’t expect him to get too much better than he is now.

3. J.J. Redick. We can’t leave out Williams’ former Duke teammate and first-team All-American, Redick. Some knock his athleticism and ability to get his own shot, especially after he couldn’t knock anything down against LSU in the NCAA tourney. However, he is still a lights-out shooter, and as a role player in the NBA, he won’t have defenses focused on shutting him down. On the right team, one with a good post player and/or someone who can drive to the hoop and force the D to collapse, he’ll be able to make a career of knocking down kickout jumpers.

4. Adam Morrison. I’m not a huge Morrison fan. A big portion of his game revolves around creating space for his sweet jumper, but I have my doubts about whether or not he’ll be able to do this against many of the more athletic defenders in the NBA. Nonetheless, he’s a pretty good scorer, and will probably average around 12 points per game next year. In a shallow draft like this one, he’ll probably make one of the biggest impacts of anyone in his class.

5. LaMarcus Aldridge. I wanted to give this spot to Andrea Bargnani, who could really be something special. But Aldridge, who’s been knocked for not being strong enough, is still much stronger than Bargnani. Aldridge crashes the boards hard, runs the court well for a big man, and can score both facing the basket and with his back to it. His scoring at Texas was deceptively low due to the fact that he played with a number of ballhogs.

Adam’s Comments: First of all, Dritz, way to stretch yourself. All five of these guys are projected as top-eight picks, so those were some bold choices. (Voice dripping with sarcasm.) That said, I can see all these guys faring okay next year. Roy is my guy and as many of you know (if you religiously read and memorize the blog – and really, who doesn’t?), I have been touting him for Rookie if the Year since March. Not only is he a very skilled and mature player, but his name is spelled R-O-Y, which stands for … you know it.

I find it interesting that you give Redick a boost by virtue of the fact that defenses won’t focus on him as much in the pros, yet you don’t give Morrison the same benefit of the doubt. I guess it all depends on where they end up. If Morrison winds up in Portland (as anticipated due to the ongoing “Draft the Stache” campaign), he is indeed going to have to work extremely hard to get shots. Whereas if Redick goes to Houston like Chad Ford seems to think, he will be feasting on Yao and T-Mac kick-outs. I suppose I agree with you, but it really boils down to their respective situations.

As for my top five “immediate contributors,” I would include Roy and Aldridge (I think he’s quickly becoming the most underrated player in the draft, as he and Roy have basically traded places on most projections), as well as Randy Foye (Roy’s biggest challenger for ROY, depending on who drafts Foye), Marcus Williams, and Shannon Brown (my choice for the “Josh Howard Late-20’s Pick That Blows Up” Award).

Five Future Impact Players (3-5 Years)

1. Andrea Bargnani. This guy could make an impact in less than three years. Unlike most European players who are drafted young and raw, Bargnani is 20 and has been playing in one of Europe’s most competitive leagues for one of Europe’s most competitive teams, and playing well. At 7’0,” the obvious comparison is Dirk, and all reports are that Bargnani is the real deal. Along with a strong perimeter game, he boards pretty well, and gives good effort on D. Word is Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo is a big fan, and many predict Bargnani will be the first pick in the draft.

2. Tyrus Thomas. A freakish athlete at 6’9”, Thomas burst onto the scene with his dominant performance during the NCAA tournament. With his ability to run the court and fill up a stat sheet, many have compared him to Shawn Marion. Critics wonder if he might be the next Stromile Swift. Personally, I think a better comparison is to a shorter, “poor man’s Amare Stoudamire.” His athleticism and shot-blocking ability make him extremely disruptive on D, and he runs the court very well. His offensive game is raw, but at only 19, that can develop. Bulls GM John Paxson is said to be in love with Thomas at #2. One worry: with rookie contracts under the new CBA being only for three years, he’ll still be too raw at the end of his first contract for the team that drafts him to be able to tell whether or not he’s the next Marion or the next Swift. This will make it hard for someone to decide whether to re-sign him. But he has the ability to be the best player in this draft.

3. Randy Foye. Some have referred to Foye as a “poor man’s Dwayne Wade.” He’s athletic, but not as strong or explosive as Wade. He’s skilled enough to help out now, but some teams want him to learn to run the point. Give him a couple years to pick up the position, and with his basketball smarts, whoever drafts him will be pleased.

4. Rudy Gay. In the past, Gay would have been on my “overrated” list, due to his propensity to disappear during games and questions about his heart. However, after Charlie Villanueva showed me up for dogging him about those issues later, I’ll give Gay a shot. He is a long, strong, freakish athlete with a good jumper and ball skills. He can do pretty much everything on the court, when he wants to. If he matures, he probably has the most potential of anyone in this draft.

5. Joel Freeland. This 7-foot Brit star of the Reebok Eurocamp has only been playing basketball for three years. He’s very athletic, blocks shots, and plays high-energy D. Offensively his skills are developing rapidly, and he’s already getting a decent mid-range jumper. He could be a real steal at the beginning of the second round, but he’ll take at least 2-3 years to develop.

Adam’s Comments: First of all, British people can’t play basketball, so that Freeland guy is going to suck. As for your other choices, I see that you also like Foye but think he needs time to learn the point. Fair enough, although I personally think that in today’s NBA he can ball right away. You don’t need defined guards anymore as evidenced by Jason Terry, Leandro Barbosa and others who are “tweeners” yet still make huge impacts. I think if you can make defenses respect with your jumper, get by people with the dribble, and finish at the rim, you can destroy defenses. Does Foye fit the bill? Check, check, and check. So I think he contributes right away.

I believe that Gay is just as likely to be out of the league in five years as he is to be any good. I know The Seal (Charlie V) has you rethinking things, but I remember Villanueva putting forward pretty good effort. The questions about him were more centered on “will he get it?” He had concentration issues more than hustle problems. With Gay, he simply doesn’t seem to give a crap. My Dad calls him Darius Miles with a better jumper. Now, some people think that’s all Miles needs and would therefore take that as a compliment. Trust me, its not.

The guys that I think will be really good down the road after slow starts are Alexander Johnson (possible workout wonder, but more likely a legit player that is still learning how to use his new lean, mean frame), Mouhamed Saer Sene (supposedly he went from not being able to shoot a layup to being a physical specimen in one year – I think he’s going to be a better version of Diop, which suddenly isn’t too terrible), and Shawne Williams.

Five Overrated Players That Will be Drafted Too High

Five Overrated Players Who Will Be Drafted Too High

1. Patrick O’Bryant. His stock skyrocketed during Bradley’s improbable Sweet Sixteen run. At 7 feet, he’s seen as the best “pure center” in the draft, and I’ve heard some teams are considering him in the middle of the lottery. A good rebounder and decent athlete, he needs to bulk up. His offensive game is raw. I don’t see anything too special about him, but since centers are rare, he’ll get taken higher than his game warrants.

2. Marcus Williams. He’s a good player, but unspectacular. While he has good basketball IQ, he’s a subpar NBA athlete, which was on display at the combine. There are questions about his character due to off-the-court troubles and poor conditioning. Normally, I don’t think he’d be a lottery pick, but this year’s draft is very thin on point guards, so he’s crept up to the middle of the lottery. His status as “the best pure point guard in the draft” will get him chosen ahead of better players.

3. Rajon Rondo. I wanted to put Rondo in the “Players who should have stayed in school” category, but I really just haven’t seen his supposed “potential.” He’s immature, and got benched by Tubby Smith for part of last season. He’s quick, but he can’t shoot. Even his free throw percentage is bad (57% last season). Why would you use a lottery pick on a guard who can’t shoot?

4. Hilton Armstrong. I just don’t see anything special about Armstrong. He’s pretty athletic, and I guess at 6’11”, that’s all you need to get selected in the late lottery (as some have projected for Armstrong). He’s a good shot-blocker and plays hard, but his offensive game is very undeveloped, and he’s a liability when the ball is in his hands. I’m not a big fan of drafting someone mainly based on size.

5. Cedric Simmons. I’m always suspicious about guys you hear little to nothing about during the college season, but whose stock is suddenly high come draft time. Simmons is athletic and can block shots, but he’s not very strong and will get pushed around. His offensive game is pretty raw, and his ballhandling is questionable. Recent reports have him going as high as the late lottery. He’s too young, and won’t have developed yet (if he ever does) when his rookie contract is up.

Adam’s Comments. Simmons is a good call. I saw him work Sheldon Williams pretty good during the ACC season last year, but other than that, I don’t understand where all this heat is coming from. The latest reports say Boston is going to take him which makes no sense given that they already have Al Jefferson, who is a better version of Simmons. Odd. I obviously disagree with you about Marcus Williams but I’m on board with the rest. I recall rooting for Bradley to upset Kansas and being amazed whenever O’Bryant converted a hoop. Now he’s a lottery pick? What? Can you say “Next Michael Olowakandi”?

Seven Potential Sleepers

Seven Potential Sleepers

1. Dee Brown. I think I’m on the ever-shortening list of people who still like Brown. People worry about his size and abilities to run the point in a half-court offense. However, Brown will be the fastest guy on the court at all times, is a strong defender both on and off the ball, and has improved his jumper. This past season wasn’t a good one for Brown to show his NBA skills, as he had to be a lead scorer (not his forte) on a young squad. However, he’ll make a good substitute point guard. Phoenix should take a good look at him to back up Steve Nash and push the tempo, as Leandro Barbosa is likely to leave after this season.

2. Kevin Pittsnogle. If there’s room in the NBA for Matt Bonner as a 3-point shooting center, there’s room for Pittsnogle on someone’s bench.

3. Leon Powe. He was a big-time college player at Cal, and those are the guys I like. He’s athletic and skilled, and has an NBA body. He can score facing the basket and with his back to it. Scouts worry he’s not big enough to play the 4, since he’s only a hair taller than 6’7”. However, his 7’2” wingspan should alleviate those concerns. If Powe’s knee holds up, he’ll be a steal in the late first or early second round.

4. Quincy Douby. This guy can really fill up the hoop, averaging 25.4 points for Rutgers last season. He has a very, very sweet long-range jumper, and a pretty floater. He can provide offense off the bench for a team, or be a good supplemental scorer at the 2 position. He’s projected to go in the bottom of the first round, but with his ability to create his own shot, he might end up being better than Redick.

5. David Noel. He was a key contributor to the 2005 North Carolina national championship team that was one of the best college squads in recent history, and I think he can contribute in the NBA. I love guys who can play at big programs. He showed perhaps the most athleticism of any prospect at the combine, and is willing to do the dirty work. He doesn’t do anything exceptionally, but he’s just a basketball player, and he’ll be able to help out a team off the bench.

6 and 7. Mike Hall and Pops Mensah-Bonsu. Gotta show some love to my alma mater. These guys are both extraordinary athletes, and they can play some ball, too. Hall can hit the NBA 3 and lock up a good wing player on D. Pops is less skilled, but can jump out the gym and likes to bang down low. Both, but especially Hall, have potential to be contributors off the bench in the NBA.

Adam’s Comments. Get out of here with that GW stuff. Come on! (Best G.O.B. from “Arrested Development” voice.) I like the Powe call and would add a few more names to the list: Mo Ager (wildly underrated), Kyle Lowry (much better shooter than people realize – I contend that he’s already better than Devin Harris), Shannon Brown (as mentioned earlier), and Will Blalock (I also like Iowa State’s Curtis Stinson, but I’m not sure if he stayed in the draft and I’m too lazy to look it up.)

Five Players That Should Have Stayed in School

Five Players Who Should Have Stayed In School

1. Daniel Gibson. He was considered a likely lottery pick before the season, but appears to have regressed. He scores well, but can be turnover-prone and has trouble with pressure. He may not really be a point guard. Another year would have let him work on involving his teammates better. Now, he’s looking at being taken in the late first or early second round.

2. Darius Washington. His game is similar to Gibson’s, as are his questions. He has an NBA body and is a good scorer, but his assist-to-turnover ratio was about even, raising questions about his ability to run the point in the pros.

3. Josh Boone. He supposedly has all the physical tools, but I feel like he rarely showed them in his first three years at UConn. He could be a good shot-blocker and rebounder, but lacks an offensive game. Many wonder if he’s soft, especially after he got pushed around by Jai Lewis in the Elite Eight. Nonetheless, scouts feel like his potential would make him a solid first-rounder if he developed a bit at school over the next year. Instead, he’s staying in this draft, and is projected to go in the second round.

4. Guillermo Diaz. He’s an incredible athlete (noticing a theme in this year’s draft?) and a tough kid. However, he’s inexperienced and can be turnover-prone. Another year at Miami to shore up his ballhandling skills would have moved him up into the lottery.

5. Danilo Pinnock. He fits the GW mold of exceptional athleticism but possessing raw skills. He needs to develop offensively. Currently, he’s probably going undrafted, but if he’d stayed another year, he would’ve established himself as a solid second-rounder.

Adam’s Comments. I think there is more to the Darius Washington story than meets the eye. He was a stud at Memphis and by the Tourney, he was splitting time at the point with walk on Anthony Allen. I got some serious “ this sucks” vibes from Washington late in the season, so I think he was planning to go no matter what. I can’t imagine losing his job would have been good for his draft stock, so maybe he was wise to try now. I do think that Antoine Wright should stay in school. Oh wait, he’s been on New Jersey’s bench all year. (Sorry if that joke sounds familiar – I used it last year.)

Four Players to Look for in 2007 (and one in '08)

Dritz and I teamed up for our annual draft preview column, but something is amiss over at home base. I think all my editors are on vacation. So I am breaking it down by group and posting it here, just so we can point to somethin when all of our predictions come true. Here is the first of many:

Four Players to Look For in the 2007 Draft and One to Look For in the 2008 Draft

1. Greg Oden. I don’t need to say much about Oden. He’s the most heralded high school prospect since LeBron, and with good reason. I saw him play in person, and he’s just an absolute monster. Oden’s a legit 7 feet, runs the court well, blocks shots, hits the boards, and can hit 15-foot jumpers. His game is incredibly developed for a 18-year-old. Right now, he’s one of the top 10 centers in the world. He claims he wants to stay in college, but it’s hard to believe he’s going to be able to resist the lure of big money after a dominant college season next year.

2. Josh McRoberts. He considered entering the draft this year, but decided to hang around Duke and be “the Man” this season. He is very athletic and runs the court well for a big man. He’s strong and has an NBA body. Barring an injury, he’ll be a top-5 pick next year.

3. Joakim Noah. This son of a former tennis star might have been the #1 pick this year, but decided to return to Florida and try to defend their national title. At 6’10”, he runs the court faster than guards, and has the rare ability to take over a game with his defense and shot-blocking. His offensive game is developing rapidly. He probably should have come out this year, though, since his stock was so high. Another year in college, and scouts will start to find problems with his game (like his awkward-looking ballhandling).

4. Kevin Durant. He dominated the McDonald’s game with his play. He’s strong and has a very sweet shot for a 6’9” player with his athleticism. Word is he’s “one-and-done” at Texas. If so, he could be a top-five pick as well.

5. O.J. Mayo (2008 Draft). The Cincinnati prep star has drawn comparisons to Kobe Bryant with the completeness of his play. He can score at will, and fills up the stat sheets. Supposedly, he’s headed to Kansas State after this season to play for Bob Huggins, but he’s highly unlikely to stay for more than a year.

Adam’s Comments. For the life of me, I’ll never understand why Noah went back to school. I know he has plenty of money and loves campus life and all that, but seriously, what was he thinking? I see a Matt Leinart-like drop in his near future. I guess the moral of the story is this: “stay in school … unless you are going to be the #1 pick in a major professional sports draft.” The worst part about Noah’s decision is that he is going to cost teammates Al Horford and Corey Brewer some serious money. Everyone knows that 2008 is shaping up to be a far superior draft, so it is unlikely that any of the young Gators will retain their lofty projections once next spring rolls around. Even if they repeat (unlikely given all the luck required) they will still lose in the big picture. Noah will go from a possible #1 pick to probably the 6-10 range, Horford was looking at Shelden Williams’ spot in this draft (5-8) and will now probably fall out of the lottery, and Brewer was settling in at late lottery and will now most likely to drop into the 20’s. I’m telling you, this is a bigger deal than people realize.