NBA: Good/Bad (Week 1)

Continuing in the theme of a Good/Bad Report on all things NBA, here is a quick rundown of some of the good and bad performances from Week One. Some of this might be indicative of things to come, some may be aberrations. Some are obvious, some are more subtle. But these are the guys that stood out to me during the opening set of regular season games.

Good

Danny Granger. I've got a buddy named Dubach (who just got married down in Cabo - a great time had by all), who believes he has perfected a head-to-head system for fantasy basketball, by which he drafts all players who do "guard" things. This allows him to win 5-4 each week (since there are five categories that tend to favor perimeter players - FT%, 3's, points, assists, and steals). The system seems to work pretty well, but the point here is that we all know he's going to draft accordingly each year. So when he drafted Danny Granger in the sixth round, it came as no surprise. The only question - which I posed - was whether Granger was going to be the next Shawn Marion or the next Donyell Marshall (circa 2003). Either way, Dubach wins in his fantasy system. However, the Pacers obviously need more Marion and less Marshall. Through the first week of the season, they are getting what they need. Granger is averaging 22.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, is getting more than a block and a steal each game, and is taking to Jim O'Brien's "bombs away" offense like a fly to honey, knocking down 10 triples through three games. Oh, and in those three games? The Pacers are 3-0.

Kevin Garnett. I know, I know. Duh. But KG isn't just infusing Boston with energy and leadership, he's racking up monster numbers. His point totals (45 bones through two games) aren't off the charts, but he's averaging 16.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists to go with a whopping 3 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. Plus, Boston has already blown out the Wizards at home and won a tough overtime contest in Toronto. Through one week at least, the KG trade is looking like the acquisition of the decade.

Chris Kaman. When it was announced that Elton Brand was down for several months with a ruptured Achilles, the assumption by most fans and pundits (including this one) was that the Clippers were doomed. After all, who would man the middle for the Clips? Certainly not Chris Caveman, with his egregious hair and horrific post-getting-paid 06-07 performance. Well, for two games at least, Kaman is proving us all wrong. He's averaging 18 points, 16.5 boards, and 2 blocks a game while leading the Clippers to a surprise 2-0 start. I'd write more, but I'm still in shock.

Allen Iverson. Iverson's selection on this list is less about numbers (the 10 dimes and 3.7 steals to with 24 points per are nice, but the low field goal percentage is not) and more about presence. He looks faster than he has in years - blindingly fast. Over the past couple of seasons, people would still include AI in the "fastest guy in the league" conversation with the likes of Tony Parker, Leandro Barbosa, and TJ Ford, but I think that was just out of respect. But now? He looks like the fastest guy again. I know he came under fire during the offseason for his approach to training (which consisted of eating bad foods, hanging out, and just relying on being a freak of nature), so maybe he took that to heart and got himself into Mile High condition. Whatever the cause of his rejuvenation, he looks incredible. When you factor in his renewed commitment to getting in the passing lanes (the only real value he's going to bring on defense), he's giving the Nuggets all they could hope for and more.

Bad

Gilbert Arenas. I don't know if he's still dinged up or if his fingers are sore from blogging or what, but Arenas is off to a dreadful start. He's shooting .333 from the field and committing 5 turnovers a game (against just 4 dimes) while his Wizards are off to an 0-3 start and looking woeful in the process. Granted, fellow stalwarts Antawn Jamison (.295 field goal percentage) and Caron Butler (5.7 turnovers a game) aren't helping, but this is Gilbert's team and it is going nowhere fast.

Vince Carter. Wait, why am I even mentioning this? VC is paid and on cruise control, so it shouldn't surprise us that he's averaging just 16.3 a game while shooting .308 from the field. The shame is that he's wasting a fantastic start by teammate Richard Jefferson. Maybe the two just can't both play well at the same time?

Luol Deng. He must really, really, really hate Los Angeles. What else but the Kobe trade rumors could be causing such turmoil and anxiety that Paxson's golden boy is averaging just 13.3 points per game and laying bricks at the line to the tune of a 62.5 percentage? Deng is the prized possession that the Bulls won't trade for Pau Gasol, for Kobe, and, presumably, for the Wolf from Teen Wolf. So the dreadful play that has lead (in conjunction with equally dreadful play from Hinrich and Ben Wallace) to Chicago's 0-3 start needs to cease immediately or people are going to start blaming Deng. Now that will cause some anxiety.

Mo Williams. When the Bucks re-upped Williams for big cash in the offseason, they were no doubt hoping that he wasn't going to pull a Mike James on them (read: shoot-first point guard throws up gaudy stats, gets a big contract, and then absolutely blows). So far, he's doing just that. If the Bucks want to challenge for a playoff spot in the East, they are going to need more than 12 points a game from Williams and they sure as hell need more than three assists a night. Three assists! For a $60 million point guard! That, my friends, is bad.

We'll be back with more Good/Bad this week and maybe even some other posts, so stay tuned and get your friends to put Section F sports back in their "killing time at work" rotation.

Good and Bad From Opening Night

I'm determined to keep this blog relevant, interesting, and - to a certain degree - specialized. That's why I've gone all NBA, all the time. I really don't have time to be blogging anymore (variety of reasons), and, frankly, my will to blog is sapped on some level my the proliferation of the form. When I decided to move away from writing columns for WhatifSports.com and do my sports writing here, I never realized how quickly that would move my work from "legitimate" to "whatever" in the eyes of most readers. In many ways, blogging about sports in the year 2007 feels both fruitless and akin to spitting into the wind.

That said, I can't shake the NBA. I love it.

So the blog lives on. Perhaps barely, hanging by a thread not unlike Lord Voldemort when he became a half human/half spirit thing in one of the Harry Potter movies. Maybe it will live on hearty and strong, like the way Dwight Howard looks grabbing a rebound. I have no idea. But I'm going to try.

And in the interest of trying, I am going to be constantly searching for little gimmicks. Not because gimmicks in and of themselves are great or some how "eye catching," but because it will provide a more cohesive nature to what is going on here.

For the time being, the gimmick is going to be something quite simple: Good and Bad.

My goal is to watch a lot of basketball late at night, on the TiVo and try to come away with some observations that don't show up in boxscores. Maybe some things that are being overlooked by the national media and even in the blogosphere. We'll see how it goes.

Here is the Good and Bad from opening night.

Good - Martell Webster.

There were plenty of good things going on last night (Duncan looking just as good as he did in last spring's playoffs, Aldridge fulfilling all of my hopes and dreams in Year 2, Deron Williams abusing people, Ronnie Brewer looking like the realness, and so on), but I thought the key "good" thing to come out of opening night was the emergence of Martell Webster at small forward for the Blazers. I know he had a big preseason, so perhaps this shouldn't have been a complete surprise, but I was just not ready to see him look so quick, confident, and versatile on the floor. I wrote about this an email earlier to my buddy Josh Stump (biggest Blazers fan I know), but I think Webster showed the skills last night that translate to him filling a vital role on this Portland team for years to come. He can stretch the floor, he has good hands, and he can attack the rim when needed. If he can add a more solid understanding of defensive principals, his ceiling becomes a slightly lesser version of Michael Finley (which would work out rather nice next to Aldridge and Oden down the road). If he can learn to be more physical, he looks like he has the makings of a non-crazy Stephen Jackson, which is also a good thing. I don't even known how many points he had or what his stats were, but I can tell you that Webster looked like the real deal. The type of guy that could be the starting small forward in Portland for the next ten years. Now that is a good thing.

Bad - The Rockets Offense

I know Houston won the game and the TNT guys were lavishing praise on their new schemes and pace, but I wasn't impressed with the Rockets offense. They won the game last night for three reasons: 1) McGrady shot 50% from the floor, which is rare, 2) Kobe was in total ballhog, wild shot mode and also did an Antoine Walker impersonation from the foul line, and 3) the Lakers suck. I wasn't impressed with Houston at all. They supposedly have this new and improved offense, yet I still saw Luther Head taking bad shots, McGrady taking tough looks, and too many trips that resulted in turnovers. And I think the problem is at point guard. They have a bunch of really fast, really talented guys in Rafer Alston, Mike James, and even rookie Aaron Brooks, but I'm not sure they have the type of guy who can orchestrate Adelman's offense. Perhaps if they had a great passing big man like Chris Webber or Vlade Divac, they could use Mike James in the old Bibby role, where he just passes, runs off a screen, and then catches a sweet dime before drilling a jumper. But Yao Ming, while an able passer, isn't Vlade. And they sure as heck don't have Chris Webber. So what is the answer?

I'm not entirely sure. One option is to evolve McGrady's role to the point where he becomes more of a point-forward ala Scottie Pippen. He actually had to do a lot of this last year as well, but that was in addition to scoring all the points. With a gunner like James and a bruiser like Bonzi Wells around, T-Mac doesn't have to worry as much about scoring. If the Rockets were to use him almost like the Kings used Webber, I could see him going something like 23-8-6 and really making this thing work. Whether he can reprogram himself to play that way and whether Houston will recognize the need are two big questions.

Another possible solution is to go get a real point guard. I keep hearing that Jose Calderon is off limits, but if Houston could present Toronto with a package of youth, size, and bench scoring punch, maybe they could swing a deal. Calderon would be the ideal floor general for this team. But alas, that is probably just wishful thinking.

Perhaps the Rockets will eventually get it revved up, but for one night, their offense gets the "Bad" award. And maybe Martell Webster will come crashing back down to earth, but he's Mr. Good for the opener.

Hopefully we'll be back tomorrow with more Good/Bad from the NBA.

2007-08 Predictions

Normally I like to lavish about 10,000 words on my NBA previews, whether I'm doing them in column or blog form (and really, at this point, what's the difference?). But unfortunately, the old j-o-b continues to exact a rather steep toll, and fellow author Michael Kun and I are in a race to complete the manuscript of our upcoming book. So this is going to be a very abbreviated version.

Eastern Conference
1. Boston - I know that people have their doubts, but I think Rondo will get it done and that the New Big 3 will lead this team to the top seed in the East.
2. Detroit - The Pistons seemed headed for a downfall, but with guys like Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell, and Rodney Stuckey coming of age, they might actually be better than they were the last two season.
3. Orlando - Howard is a beast and Lewis will provide scoring punch, but this team only improves if Jameer Nelson improves.
4. Cleveland - The Cavs are down, but with LeBron you are never out.
5. Washington - Most like Toronto in this spot, but the Wizards were cruising along until they were beset by injuries a year ago.
6. Chicago - The Bulls still need a lowpost scorer and won't make the Finals until they get one.
7. Atlanta - This is more fun than picking the Heat or the Nets.
8. Toronto - They played over their heads a year ago, Bosh is dinged up to start the year, and Jose Calderon should be starting ... all told, I think they barely make the playoffs.
9. Miami - It's time to blow this thing up. If a guy doesn't have the name "Wade" on the back of his jersey, he should be sent packing.
10. New Jersey - This is the year the wheels fall off.
11. New York - The wheels fell off a long time ago.
12. Milwaukee - Part of me sees them as a playoff sleeper, but a larger part of me sees the Yi Fiasco blowing up in their faces.
13. Indiana - Except lots of three point launches ... and lots of bricks.
14. Philadelphia - They played hard and pretty well after the AI trade last year, but they will find the going tougher this time around.
15. Charlotte - Everyone keeps waiting for them to get better, but I don't see it happening this year.

Playoffs
First round:
(1) Boston over (8) Toronto
(5) Washington over (4) Cleveland
(3) Orlando over (6) Chicago
(2) Detroit over (7) Atlanta
Second round:
(1) Boston over (5) Washington
(3) Orlando over (2) Detroit
Eastern Conference Championship
(1) Boston over (3) Orlando

Western Conference
1. Phoenix - Going with my gut and heart instead of my head.
2. San Antonio - The Spurs will slowplay the regular season and try to keep everyone healthy for the playoffs ... again.
3. Dallas - One postseason collapse doesn't change the fact that this team has the makings of a 65-game winner.
4. Denver - I know I'm completely crazy, but I think K-Mart is going to make it through the season and make a huge difference.
5. Utah - Deron Williams is the realness, but turmoil in the preseason is never a good thing.
6. Houston - I'm with everyone else who is excited about Houston, but after picking them to win it all last year, I can't bring myself to go too far.
7. New Orleans - Chris Paul is about to blow up in a major way.
8. Golden State - I'm not sure I buy sustained excellence for the Warriors, but I like them better than anyone else in the West for the 8th spot.
9. L.A. Lakers - They should make the playoffs with Phil, Kobe, Odom, and the improving Bynum ... but will they even have Kobe by the time the playoffs start?
10. Portland - The Blazers are going to play hard and be in every game, but without Oden, they are probably still a year away from reaching the postseason.
11. Memphis - They will be better, but it probably won't show up in the W/L column.
12. Sacramento - They should be more fun to watch, even when they are losing.
13. L.A. Clippers - Is any NBA team more cursed than the Clippers? Yikes.
14. Minnesota - It is cliche to pick the Wolves last, so I'm breaking the mold ... and taking them second-to-last.
15. Seattle - For my money, this is the worst team in the NBA.

Playoffs
First round:
(1) Phoenix over (8) Golden State
(4) Denver over (5) Utah
(3) Dallas over (6) Houston
(2) San Antonio over (7) New Orleans
Second round:
(4) Denver over (1) Phoenix
(3) Dallas over (2) San Antonio
Western Conference Championship
(3) Dallas over (4) Denver

NBA Finals
Boston over Dallas

MVP - Kevin Garnett
ROY - Al Horford (upset!)
COY - George Karl
DPOY - Shane Battier
6th Man - Manu Ginobili

Dead Eye Dwight?

Preseason NBA games are pretty meaningless, but there is one stat from the box score that translates regardless of when the game is played ... free throw shooting. My man Dwight Howard couldn't make his free throws last year whether he was in a crucial playoff game or in someone's back yard. It made him a liability for fantasy teams and prevented him from being the go-to guy for the Magic in their series with the Pistons last year. But tonight, against the Cavs, Howard went 13-for-16 from the line.

Impressive. And it just might be one of those rare preseason stats that means something.

My Marion Post

I've received a number of emails asking for my take on Shawn Marion and his recent trade requests, so here it is:

Shut up, Shawn.

There are many recent trends in the sporting world that have me feeling less than thrilled, namely the fact that the summer of 2007 turned into a real life version of Cosmo Kramer's fake talk show retooling: "Scandals and Animals."

However, more than point shaving, dogfighting, steroids, cheating, or anything else, the thing I am most tired of is the whining of star NBA players. These guys make in excess of $10 million per year because they are supposed to be star players, and then they cry about not getting enough help or love or respect or private jets or whatever. Get over it.

Shawn Marion needs to take a little trip next week. He needs to chose five random people in the Phoenix area and go shadow them at their places of employment. Pick them right out of the phonebook and follow them around, Monday through Friday. See how much "love" they get. See how fawned over they are. How much they get paid, how their bosses treat them, how many standing ovations they receive, how many autograph requests they get from people who think they are heroes. I'm guessing he will come away feeling pretty, pretty, pretttyyyyy good (as Larry David would say) about his current job as the starting power forward on the most exciting basketball team in the world.

I know Marion has worked hard for what he has and I'm not the type to begrudge athletes their enormous salaries. I'm a free market guy. Hooray capitalism and all that. However, nothing is more off-putting than someone being ungrateful about his spoils. You don't win the lottery and then complain about it. You just don't.

So anyway, that is my take. Maybe Marion will be traded (quite possibly for fellow baby AK-47), maybe he won't. Frankly, I hope it all works out for the Suns, but I don't really care about The Matrix.

Just shut up, already.

Defending Paul Westphal

I'm a huge fan of Henry Abbott's blog over at ESPN, but since I started my new job, I haven't been able to read it as often (let alone blog, obviously). I usually wind up taking in large chunks at a time, while drinking the morning coffee or before I go to bed.

Which is how I came across a post from yesterday about Paul Westphal.

You can read the post for yourself, but it basically amounts to a True Hoop reader positively killing Westphal. This, in response to a Marc Stein column over on ESPN about the best moves in the Western Conference.

And while Henry himself casts no judgment on Coach Westphal, and while a few other readers come to his defense in the comments section, I felt motivated to post something here as well.

For starters, I should note that I came to know Coach Westphal well during his time at Pepperdine. His son-in-law is one of my best friends and after getting to know him, Coach Westphal allowed me to basically become part of the team for the 2003-2004 season. The reason? I was a young writer looking for an opportunity and we decided that following a mid-major team around and writing a book about it might be a good idea (the book never came to be, for reasons that will be discussed below). He took the time to meet with me on a regular basis, allowed me full access to the team and the players, and even gave me the opportunity to meet one of my heroes, John Wooden.

So understand that I am hardly objective.

However, understand also that all of that access gave me a different perspective than that of the guys sitting in the stands. I don't fault these guys for caring, because as a Pepperdine alum myself, I care just as much. However, there is a difference between bashing someone from a bird's eye view and without all the information, and making the same claims when you've seen behind the curtain. (And I'm sure this is true of all coaches and players in all sports; it is always easier to criticize when there is no personal connection.)

There is no denying that Pepperdine's basketball program has trended downward over the past several years, going from one of the elite mid-major programs in the country to a team that struggles mightily to win WCC games. And because that dip largely occurred on Coach Westphal's watch, it is easy to see why people would automatically connect the dots and assume he was responsible.

However, as is always the case, there is more to the story. In Coach Westphal's first season at Pepperdine, he managed to bring in (largely through the recruiting efforts of former assistant Gib Arnold) a couple of transfers (Jimmy Miggins and Devin Montgomery) on the fly to team with a lot of young talent that remained from the Jan Van Breda Kolff era. That season he inserted redshirt freshman guard Terrance Johnson into the starting lineup, got senior Craig Lewis to buy into a sixth man roll that literally saved that team, and turned longtime stiff Cedric Suitt into a shot-blocking stud at center. That squad reached the 2002 NCAA Tournament as an at-large bid and gave a very good Wake Forest team (led by Josh Howard) all it could handle in a first round game in Sacramento.

Expectations for the next season were naturally very high. Many of the team's star players were returning and young center Will Kimble was being groomed to take over for Suitt. Then, tragedy struck when Kimble was diagnosed with a heart condition that ended his playing career at Pepperdine (although he would later play again, at UTEP). That team was never the same, as it basically amounted to a lost season, particularly when Montgomery went down with a thumb injury for an extended period of time.

The 2003-2004 campaign should have been one for the books. Literally, my book. However, once again, the Waves were thwarted at every turn. Star transfer - and current member of the Denver Nuggets - Yakhouba Diawara (who has been featured many times on this blog in The Khoub Report) was forced to miss over half the season for some ridiculous eligibility issue that took the NCAA forever to resolve and subsequently robbed him of the entire (and critical) non-conference schedule. Top recruit Shaun Davis got off to a great start and then completely melted down, to the point where he was an ongoing distraction and was eventually asked to leave the team. Plus, Kimble was on the bench all season (another case of Westphal being a stand-up guy, as he honored the scholarship), which wound up being more haunting and sad than inspiring. Yes, there was a lot of talent on that team, but they never had a shot. There were just too many problems to deal with.

What people don't realize about success at the mid-major level is that everything has to go perfectly. You can't afford a single major injury or suspension or borderline insane recruit. And when all of them happen in unison and the guy forced to quit basketball because of a heart condition is sitting on the bench next to you, it is hard to maintain excellence. It just is.

And as for the diminution of talent in the program, I'm sure the recruiting wasn't flawless, but people need to understand that Coach Westphal and his staff were trying to recruit to a school with inadequate facilities (Pepperdine is a breathtakingly beautiful campus with first rate facilities ... except for basketball) and high academic standards. Additionally, he is a guy that actually values excellence of character and tried to hold players up to moral standards as well as those of an academic or athletic nature. Not only that, but Coach Westphal was forced to recruit and build a program amid constant rumors about his next move. He was rumored to be angling for the head coaching of the Boston Celtics (a rumor that Marc Stein himself inaccurately spread) and rumored to be heading to the Knicks as an assistant, neither of which were true, but both of which did damage to the work he was trying to do in Malibu.

I'm not making excuses for the results, because I'm sure everyone involved in the process of building those teams would admit to some mistakes and regrets, but I am interested in pointing out the other side of the argument.

Of course, all of this is sort of moot when it comes to Coach Westphal's ability as an NBA coach, which is what Stein's column discussed. If anything, my time with Coach Westphal only proved what a great basketball mind he has. He is always thinking outside the box and coming up with innovative ideas. The problem with that kind of high level thinking in college basketball is that the players are often not advanced enough to apply some of those ideas. Coach Westphal's greatest sin as the head coach at Pepperdine was probably that he trusted the players too much as athletes, treating them like pros rather than college kids. That obviously isn't an issue when he will be coaching, you know, pros. He doesn't have to teach Jason Terry how to shield a defender from stealing his dribble, so he can spend all the time he wants showing JT a few tricks for drawing fouls off the ball. There is no need to instruct Jerry Stackhouse on the principals of a high-low offense, so he can skip right to the good stuff. And he doesn't have to show Erick Dampier what a pivot foot is, so he can move on to a nifty double move. Okay, maybe that last example wasn't the best.

But the point is that Paul Westphal is perfect for the Dallas Mavericks. He can deploy the mounds and mounds of strategy that he has about basketball, while working for a standup guy (Avery Johnson) that shares his emphasis on character, and probably reinvent a few things along the way.

I watched Coach Westphal succeed tremendously at Pepperdine and I watched him fail and I learned a lot about what a quality person and basketball coach he is along the way. Things may not have worked out perfectly in Malibu, and I suppose that students and alums have a right to be as angry as they want to be about how things turned out, but I can say with 100% certainty that the Dallas Mavericks are very lucky to have Coach Westphal on their staff.

More Oden: Silver Linings

My inbox is flooded with desperate emails from people in the 503 area code. A great many of these broken-hearted individuals are probably reaching for their most expensive spirits right this moment, or perhaps drying their tears with Greg Oden rookie cards.

All of which means that I need to expand on the previous post with more and immediate optimism, however unfounded.

Therefore, I am presenting four silver linings for the Blazers. Most of them have yet to be covered in great deal in the mainstream media, mainly because the coverage hasn't moved from reporting to spin to counterspin just yet. But that's the beauty of a blog, you can just throw stuff up at an alarming rate.

1. The David Robinson Factor. During one email conversation I had earlier with some Blazer fans, one suggestion that came out is that perhaps the Blazers can tack on more talent by virtue of another losing season. With Oden on the shelf for 07-08, the thinking goes, Portland is doomed for another terrible season in the W/L column, which could set them up for another very high draft pick. This is obviously a close replica of the situation that netted San Antonio Tim Duncan back in the day. There are obvious differences here, namely that the Spurs were a perennial 50-win team that took a nosedive for that one season without The Admiral, whereas the Blazers have been at this "struggling" thing for a while. But the main idea still applies: a guy worth probably 20 wins is out for the year and a much higher draft pick is obtained as a result. One can imagine the Blazers cashing in on another top pick and getting a fabulous talent like incoming Memphis point guard Derrick Rose or incoming Kansas State power forward Michael Beasely. The former is going to lead somebody to the NBA Finals at some point in his career and the latter is going to be one of the best power forward prospects to enter the draft in this decade. So there is definite cause for optimism here.

(Not to throw water on everybody, but I should point out a few problems with the "Hey, now we can get Derrick Rose too!" silver lining: A) Even without Oden, Portland will still have a hard time being the worst team in the NBA. Roy has a year of experience under his belt, Aldridge is emerging, Frye can step in and play big minutes, and so on. I think there are at least six NBA teams that will be far worse than the Blazers this year. B) After winning the lottery last year, it seems unlikely that Portland could have lightening strike twice on that front. They would be more likely to land something like the 6th pick and be faced with the prospect of Chase Budinger playing small forward for the next decade.)

2. The Scrutiny Avoidance Factor. Look, don't confuse what I'm about to say. I am not for a minute suggesting that being under a media microscope is worse for a young player than undergoing severe and risky knee surgery. So please don't take this that way. However, I do think there was significant risk that Oden was going to get off to a rough start. He hasn't been healthy in a while and it looked highly likely that he was going to spend the year in constant foul trouble and in the shadow of Kevin Durant. The media would latch onto that combo like a dog snatching a soup bone and they would never let go. Again, I'm not saying that Oden is better off with a surgically repaired knee, but I do think that some guys can wind up being protected from themselves until they are truly ready to flourish. Carson Palmer wasn't hurt his rookie year, but I'm convinced that his never taking a snap in Cinci that season is why he's so good now. It seems entirely possible that Oden can and will benefit from watching and learning and moving out of the pressure cooker for a significant period of time. Then again, it is entirely possible that he's basketball's Mark Prior.

Whoops, sorry, this is a silver lining column.

3. Timing. I wrote about this on this very blog several times over the summer, but the key to cashing in on their recent run of lottery success was for Portland to remain extremely patient with this roster. Oden had the look of a championship centerpiece, but it was going to take him 3-5 years even without a setback before he would be ready to lead a title contender. The same is true, to a lesser extent, with Aldridge. Roy, on the other hand, will progress much faster and some of the other pieces are close to reaching maturation. The temptation that was eventually going to confront the Blazers was one of timing. Would they stick to the long term vision and wait for not only title contention, but even mere playoff appearances? Or would they start to give up future pieces for lesser players who would help compete now? I think the former is the best approach in a Western Conference loaded with teams that are powerhouses now (San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, and even Houston) but that also have a horizon line in play. In my mind, only Utah looms as a mortal lock to be good in about 2011, so there is going to be a window for Portland if they play their cards right.

As much as I trust their front office and think the world of Kevin Pritchard, I'm not sure they had the restraint to wait and wait and wait for the right time. Now, they have no choice but to wait. And while Oden no doubt sees his timeline moved back a bit, I don't think it changes all that much. I think whether he plays in the next 18 months or not, he was/is going to be ready to lead a Finals-level team around the same time, which is the 2010-2011 season. As long as he can make it back at least 85-90% of the way physically (as Kidd, Randolph, and Amare have done), I don't really believe this stunts his progress in terms of the big picture.

4. Ability To Re-Sign Oden. This came up in the same chain of emails referenced above and I tend to see this as a positive for Portland. Not only do most NBA players re-sign with the teams that drafted them anyway, but the Blazers are going to be able to slap a contract extension in front of Oden long before he answers the myriad questions that outside organizations will have. The Blazers will be able to make an informed offer based on critical internal information, thus make a more confident offer that is likely to result in Oden re-signing for the max number of years. Not only that, but since Portland and Oden now have their fates so intertwined anyway, there isn't much harm in rolling the dice on a big extension. If they re-up him and he never comes all the way back, they (meaning the front office, the team, the fans, everyone) are all screwed anyway. I think this only helps Portland transition quickly and smoothly from the "we have him for three years under his rookie contract" phase to the "we have him for five more years" phase. Whereas you can bet that everyone from GM's to agents to endorsers to David Stern himself will be whispering in Kevin Durant's ear about the weather in L.A., the big lights of New York, or even the tax benefits of Florida. If ever there was a stud draft pick that looks like a good bet to bolt from the team that drafted him, it is the uber-marketable Durant playing for a team with one foot in Seattle and the other in Oklahoma City.

Obviously, a lot remains to be seen. How well did the surgery go? Will they find anything when they go back and scope again (ala Amare)? How will he recover? But as long as those questions are met with positive answers, I think that it could wind up being an "all's well that ends well" situation.

Horrible Oden News

I was just on my way back to my desk when I got an email from my buddy Josh Stump which read, "It was microfracture." I barely made it the rest of the way to my office.

If you are a Blazers fan, or even just an NBA fan, this is far more depressing news than referee scandals or plummeting NBA Finals ratings. This is "you have to be kidding me" territory.

Obviously, the first place this news takes us is back to the Sam Bowie conversation. Leading up to the draft, one of the big fears in taking Oden is that the Blazers might somehow be tempting fate, since the last time they had the chance to take either an electric perimeter player or an imposing big man, they opted for Bowie over Jordan in one of the most infamous draft choices of all time. The comparison seemed wrong for many reasons, not the least of which was the fact that Portland wanted Hakeem that year but missed out when they didn't get the number one pick. So comparing Hakeem to Jordan was more appropriate. But now that Oden is already going to be shelved for his rookie year, the Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan comparison is more apt. The specter of Bowie is going to loom over EVERYTHING.

The second place this is going to go is the inevitable comparisons to other NBA players who have had microfracture surgery. This tends to be better news for Blazers fans. I think we still recoil at the term "microfracture," because very recently it appeared to be an injury from which there was no coming back. Now we just know that it takes at least a full year, maybe more. Jason Kidd is no spring chicken, yet he has bounced back well enough to be the key guy on Team USA. Zach Randolph carries more weight on his frame than Oden, yet was able to come all the way back and have a monster year for this very same Portland team last year. And Amare Stoudemire is a player that relies far more on his athleticism than Oden and managed to make the NBA's first team all-league last year. No doubt Amare isn't quite the same guy, but he's still pretty fantastic.

The one player that has to worry the Blazers is Kenyon Martin. That is because K-Mart has a star-crossed injury past that sort of mirrors the path that Oden is on. While Oden never shattered a leg like Martin, he did have the broken wrist at Ohio State and was already down with tonsillitis during summer league play. K-Mart is the one NBA player of recent vintage that hasn't been able to get back to full health (yet) and that has to scare the good people of Portland.

All told, this is horrible, horrible news. No doubt the immediate gut reaction for the Blazers is to want to turn the clock back to draft night and take Kevin Durant instead. The urge to second-guess and wonder "what if" is going to have to be suppressed, otherwise, it will cause you to go crazy.

The Blazers need to use this season to continue Roy's development, let Aldridge grow into the monster that he's destined to become, and maybe boost the trade value of some expendable (or maybe not so expendable now?) players like Joel Przybilla. They need to sit comfortably in the knowledge that Oden is young, that his knee is otherwise healthy, and that the injured area was small (all similar to the first reports about Amare's knee, by the way - of course, they had to go back in on Stoudemire). Mainly, they need to take some solace in the knowledge that this type of procedure has come a long, long way. The days of Terrell Brandon and Jamal Mashburn seeing their careers end over this are over.

Oden is going to be okay, as long as no one panics.

And as long as there really is no Bowie Curse on this franchise.

Clippers Sign Another Player That Should Be In Boston

Several weeks after taking veteran free agent Brevin Knight off the free agent market, the Clippers have once again swooped in and nabbed an unemployed NBA vet in Ruben Patterson.

Both guys know how to fill a role, they play hard, and can really help round out a winning team. The problem? The Clippers aren't a winning team. Not only that, they aren't at all equipped to handle these personalities. Knight has been rumored to be a bit of a handful (in the "Grumpy Gus" sense) in the locker room, while Patterson once had to roll around with one of those electronic ankle bracelets after he sexually assaulted his nanny. Guys like that don't assimilate all that well to unstable situations, which is exactly what the Clippers have. The other L.A. team has an injured Elton Brand, an injured Shaun Livingtson, and a perpetually injured Sam Cassell. That's the core. Then there's overpaid Chris Kaman, oft-injured and disenfranchised Corey Maggette, and "always missing Steve Francis" Cuttino Mobley on the edges. Does that sound like a proper cauldron to be throwing Ruben Patterson into? Or even Brevin Knight?

Not only that, but Patterson just became roster overkill. The only place where the Clippers have any real depth right now is at small forward. They've got Maggette to score, Quentin Ross to defend, and rookie Al Thornton to do a bit of everything. How are they even going to get the Nanny Stopper on the court? It's a disaster.

On the other hand, we have the Boston Celtics. You might recall that when the KG trade first happened, I implored Danny Ainge to sign these very players. Brevin Knight would be the perfect fit to back up Rajon Rondo - he could give the C's a solid 20 minutes a game at the point while teaching the youngster a few tricks. Knight has always been a fabulous passer and terrific help defender, which would have only aided Rondo's development in those areas. As for Patterson, he was the perfect compliment to their perimeter rotation. He hustles, plays with energy, shoots a high percentage, defends, and offers some decent athleticism. How on earth is James Posey a better choice for that spot?

Anyway. It's just weird to see both of the guys that could have perfectly rounded out the Boston roster wind up in an awful situation 3,000 miles away. It's like the bizarro result of what should have happened.

Oh well, maybe this means Maggette is finally on his way out of town.

And ... We're Back

Please forgive yet another extended absence from the blog. I was travelling and then starting my new job, so things have been hectic. And speaking of new jobs, that is going to slow down the production level quite a bit. Not only is my new profession a tad on the demanding side, but it also would be in poor taste to make several posts each day, during work hours, using my real name. So this is going to be a morning, lunch hour, late night, weekend kind of thing, with the goal being 5-10 posts per week. We'll see how it goes.

I've got some stuff on tap regarding Team USA, including thoughts on J-Kidd's legacy, the way superstars turn it up on D, and some eyewitness accounts courtesy of my brother, Drew. So that should be fun.

For now, I'm going to break from all-NBA, all the time just long enough to post my NFL picks. After all, I need a place to put them, even if this is now just a hoops blog.

I'll make it quick:

AFC Division Winners - New England, Indy, San Diego, and Pittsburgh.
AFC Wild Cards - Cincinnati and Jacksonville
NFC Division Winners - Philly, Seattle, New Orleans, Minnesota
NFC Wild Cards - Dallas and Green Bay

(That's right, I've got the Ravens and Bears sitting at home.)

Super Bowl - Pittsburgh over Dallas
MVP - Tom Brady
DPOY - Champ Bailey
ROY - Adrian Peterson
COY - Brad Childress

Aid to the Clippers

Someone needs to get on the horn and place an order to be delivered to the Staples Center, ASAP. Within should be thousands of horseshoes, amulets, four leaf clovers, and rudraksh nuts. We should also probably ring as many church bells as possible and remove all broken mirrors and step ladders from any Clippers facilities. And a ban on black cats wouldn't be a bad idea either.

I mean, can it get any worse for the Clips? 14 months ago they were jousting with the Suns in the Western Conference semis and looking every bit like a rising power in the NBA. Now? Not so much. Cassell washed up in a hurry, Dunleavy snookered the team into an extension (true Clippers fans and those familiar with Mike Sr.'s work all seemed to know right from the outset that this was a bad idea), Chris Kaman suffered from the effects of either "getting nuts grabbed hangover" (courtesy of Reggie Evans) or "getting paid hangover," and Shaun Livingston nearly had his leg come flying off his body. Now Elton Brand, the most consistent player in franchise history (by a long shot), has a torn Achilles tendon and might miss the entire 2007-08 season.

Ouch.

Of course, it is possible that Brand - known as an extremely hard worker - could come back as early as February, but that is a best case scenario. Plus, this is a guy that is a notoriously slow starter, which means that the 35 game mark (when he starts getting going) will come at the end of the season.

All of which means the Clips are probably dead in the water before the season even begins and no doubt kicking themselves for drafting a "help now" guy in 76-year old (slight exaggeration) Al Thornton.

Anyone have any ideas for how the Clippers can catch a break? If not, I suggest we send that order of horseshoes on the double.

A Rondo Believer

I've become borderline obsessed with the Celtics ever since I first heard they were pulling the trigger on the KG deal. Maybe it is because I want to believe the NBA still matters after the big referee scandal or perhaps I just have some excess energy after finishing the old licensing exam. Whatever the reason, I'm determined to figure out whether this whole circus is actually going to turn Boston into a good team. I'm already on record that the C's are botching their post-KG opportunity to round out the roster and I believe they are priming themselves for a potential disaster. That said, I'm not ruling out a Finals run for this team as it is currently constructed.

Part of the reason I'm still bullish is because I seem to hold out more hope than most that Rajon Rondo can make a big leap forward and become a legit playoff point guard.

My instinct is that Rondo can do it. His athleticism is insane and he really impressed me last year with his defensive intensity and ball handling. Rondo's shot clearly sucks and his decision-making as a rookie was obviously questionable at best, but what rookie doesn't make questionable decisions with the ball? Particularly rookies given part-time roles in the offense.

The big question is whether such a rookie can turn the corner by his second year. Deron Williams accomplished the feat last year with ease and went from a shaky rookie PG to a damn near dominant lead guard in the postseason. I'm not suggesting that Rondo is going to make that kind of jump, but I couldn't help but wonder if the transition from backup rookie to full time starter is a natural one to make in a player's second year.

With that in mind, I decided to scour through every relevant point guard in the NBA in search of guys that got spotty minutes as a rookie, only to become "the guy" in their second year. The list of such players really isn't that long. I had to rule out all of the guys that got big minutes as starting point guards their rookie years (Mike Bibby, Tony Parker, Stephon Marbury, T.J. Ford, Jamaal Tinsley, Chauncey Billups, Kirk Hinrich, Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Jason Williams, Raymond Felton, and Chris Paul) as well as all the guys who failed to get big minutes as a starter their second season (Steve Nash, Leandro Barbosa, Steve Blake, Shaun Livingston, Sam Cassell, Rafer Alston, Mo Williams, Jamal Crawford, Antonio Daniels, Earl Watson, Eric Snow, Smush Parker, Derek Fisher, Jose Calderon, and Jameer Nelson). And obviously, I can't research any other 06-07 rookies.

The Test Group

That left a list of eight guys that went from reserves/part time starters (with less than 30 mpg) as rookies to starters (50+ starts, 30+ mpg) in their second year. That list includes Deron Williams, Monta Ellis (if he counts as a PG), Jarrett Jack, Baron Davis, Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Gilbert Arenas, and Luke Ridnour. As Tony Kornheiser would say, "That's it, that's the list!"

The problem with such a small test group is that it doesn't really account for the myriad ways a rookie point guard can come to take over a team in year two. Rondo's situation is that he's a talented player who is in a "last man standing" scenario following a massive trade. Is there a situation like that represented by this group of players? I'm not sure there is. That said, this group of players came to starting roles in a variety of ways that range from overwhelming talent demanding playing time to "someone has to play" situations. I don't want to read too much into the uniqueness of the circumstances, but it also can't be ignored. More on this later.

General Trend

The initial bit of good news for Celtics fans? Nearly every guy on this list made huge strides from Year One to Year Two. Almost across the board, these players made big jumps in key statistical areas. And it wasn't just the kind of statistical improvement that comes from extra playing time either, because I focused the analysis on "Per 40 Minute" stats. Even eliminating minutes as a changing variable, almost every guy got better in almost every area.

One thing that stood out to me is that every player on the list lowered his fouls per 40 minutes, which indicates a much better feel for the pace of the game and an awareness of Tim Donaghy's presence on the court. Okay, cheap joke, but I really do think it speaks volumes about the way these guards adjusted to the NBA game.

In addition, all but one player on the list saw his turnovers per 40 go up. While that might seem like a bad stat, I suggest the opposite. I've always thought people get too carried away with turnovers, because a high number can indicate aggressiveness and a willingness to push the envelope in addition to just sloppy play. Steve Nash and Jason Kidd often have unbelievable games filled with turnovers. Like many basketball stats, turnovers only mean something if accompanied by context.

All told, the "per 40" numbers of these eight players showed a trend to improve scoring, improve playmaking, and - perhaps even more importantly - improve feel for the game and aggressiveness.

This is all good news for Rondo, but I felt that the list was still too general, mainly because Rondo is 21 and will turn 22 in February of the 2007-08 season. That puts him on the younger side of the ledger, which I believe is relevant because the younger guys typically made bigger strides and in fact all of them "improved" by any definition of the word. The results of the "23 and over" crowd were a bit more mixed, which is in keeping with the philosophy held by many that NBA teams should draft younger guys if they want to see dramatic improvement. The older you are, the closer you probably are to your ceiling, or something like that. Anyway, here are the two groups (four players in each group):

23 and Over

For the point guards that turned 23 or older during their second year (when they become the clear starter), the results are mostly positive. However, it appears that for the older players, the progress was more subtle and more in line with the skill set that has been on display ever since. Plus, the only guy that came anywhere near regression (Ridnour) is on this list.

A quick look at teach player in the 23 and Over group:

Jarrett Jack, 23 - Jack went from 4 games started to 77 and saw his minutes increase 13 per game to 33.4 in his second year with the Blazers. He became a pretty competent point guard and saw slight increases in points and assists per 40 as well as a big bump in eFG%. His boards dropped, which is actually pretty common. Not sure why, although it could be that as point guards they learn how to get back on D and get in position for outlet passes to start the offense. Or maybe they get lazy. I don't really know. In addition to improving offensively, Jack really came along as a defensive player last season. I feel like Jack represents Rondo's floor next season, which isn't bad, considering the former Yellow Jacket was better than anyone running the point for Cleveland, Orlando, Miami (Wade doesn't count), Washington (without Arenas), Houston, or the Lakers in last year's postseason.

Andre Miller, 25 - To me, Miller really represents the difference between the older and younger guards. While he definitely improved from year one to year two, most of that was just the natural byproduct of more minutes (from 25.5 to 34.7). He had a slight bump in points and assists and - like pretty much all of these guys - committed fewer fouls, all based on per 40 minute numbers. However, Miller was pretty much Miller, even as a rookie getting spot minutes. But again, he was already 25 years old when he became a starting point guard in his second year. The important takeaway here is that Miller's per 40 numbers held up when he became a starter, which is important because - like Rondo - he can't hit the broadside of a barn with his jumper. I think a lot of people are worried that Rondo will struggle to remain effective as a full time player if he's more heavily scouted and can't keep defenses honest. Miller faced similar issues and wasn't effected in the least.

Jason Terry, 23 - Perhaps it was because he came off the bench for Arizona's national title team, but for some reason the Hawks coaching staff couldn't get used to the idea of Jason Terry starting as a rookie. He only logged 27 starts (very similar to Rondo's 25) as a rookie (even though his competition was Bimbo Coles) and then jumped up to 77 in his second year. Terry actually saw a drop in assists per 40, but only because he took a massive leap in scoring. He also enjoyed a big bump in eFG%. Like Miller, Terry's second year was less about improving (although he certainly did improve) and more about establishing what type of player he would be - namely, a scoring lead guard.

Luke Ridnour, 24 - Ridnour is the most suspect player on this list. You probably already could have guessed that, because he lost his job to Earl Watson last year. But know that the numbers tell the same story. Ridnour went from 6 starts to 82 and from 16.1 minutes to 31.4 in his second year, but saw only a bump in his assists per 40 minutes, with his eFG% staying the same and his points and boards dropping. Part of Ridnour's problem is that he was so horrific on defense that he played shorter rotations than any other guard on this list, which made it harder to find a groove on offense. That shouldn't be a problem for Rondo.

Under 23

This is the group that Rondo would belong to, which bodes very well for Boston. Each guy on this list made serious progress during his second year and three of the four went from bench players to legit studs (while the other, Ellis, was named the league's Most Improved Player. Two (Baron and Deron Williams) were drafted higher than Rondo and two (Arenas and Ellis) went in the second round. One (Williams) played better than Rondo in his rookie minutes, the other three were probably slightly outperformed by the Celtic point guard. So while it seems a little crazy and maybe even irresponsible to compare Rajon Rondo to guys like Baron Davis and Gilbert Arenas, there isn't a compelling statistical reason not to compare him to those players. Here are the "under 23" players, individually:

Deron Williams, 22 - The Kingpin of this whole list and the guy that every emerging second year point guard is going to want to be. He started 47 games at 28.8 mpg as a rookie and made the jump to 80 starts and 37 mpg in year two. With his new found responsibility and the maturation of his game, Williams made a nice jump in points per 40, a huge leap in assists (almost unfathomable, actually, from 6.2 to 10.1), and a slight bump in eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which takes into account threes). As mentioned above, like everyone on the list, his fouls went down and his turnovers went up, indicating a much better presence and feel on the court. Overall, a massive improvement.

Gilbert Arenas, 21 - Arenas made 30 starts and played 24.6 minutes per game as a rookie and impressed enough to warrant 82 starts and 35 minutes a night the next season. His eFG% dropped (and has been dropping ever since), but everything else went way up - points, boards, assists, you name it. Arenas showed flashes as a rookie, but nobody saw him stepping up like he did in his second season. They should have.

Monta Ellis, 21 - Deja vu, anyone? Like Arenas, Ellis turned 21 during his second season in Oakland, when he went from 3 starts to 53 and from 18.1 minutes per to 34.3 mpg. And of course his numbers went up - doubling someone's minutes tends to do that. More importantly, Ellis' points per 40 went way up, his eFG% went way up, and he saw a significant increase in his assists per 40. Only his boards dropped. The only bad news here for Rondo fans is that Ellis really regressed in the playoffs. However, even that can be explained. Because unlike every other guy on this list, Ellis was still not supposed to be the starting point guard of his team. He was inserted into the role when Baron got hurt, so he didn't prepare the previous summer to be the starting point guard, nor did he feel the same sense of ownership and responsibility once Baron and Richardson returned. Ellis' postseason slump is more about reverting back to his rookie mindset than his rookie game. Unless the C's plan on bringing in a stud veteran point guard to unseat Rondo just before the playoffs, this shouldn't be a big fear.

Baron Davis, 22 - Speaking of Baron, he didn't get a single start during his rookie year and logged just 18 minutes a night, but started every game at a whopping 39 minutes per during his second year. Like Jason Terry, Baron both improved and also settled into his game, as his assists per 40 actually dropped, but he grabbed more boards and scored far more often. The odd thing about Baron is that while his fouls went way down (as expected), he actually committed fewer turnovers per 40. This tells me that he was both plenty aggressive and plenty sloppy as a rookie.

What It All Means

My overwhelming gut reaction after looking over this list is to run out and purchase stock in Rajon Rondo. The eight point guards that shared nearly identical circumstances all saw their numbers translate as a starter - and that is a bare minimum standard that really only pertains to Luke Ridnour. The other seven guys all improved, almost across the board. They perfected skills (scorers or playmakers), became more aggressive, and got comfortable with the pace and physicality of NBA games. Not only that, but the younger the player, the more extreme the improvement. Since he turns just 22 this year, Rondo seems to be primed for a huge breakout season. All of which means that should be more than serviceable as the pilot of Boston's title quest.

However, all of that optimism has to be tempered just a bit given the unique aspects of Rondo's situation. For starters, I'm not sure there is a guy on this list, with the possible exception of Andre Miller, that has a jump shot as mangled as Rondo's. Additionally, half of these players took over the reigns for losing teams, where expectations were low - just as the Celtics youngster was set to do before all the trading. On the flip side, Rondo is probably a superior defensive player to every guard on this list, so that helps negate the shooting concerns. And its not as if none of the aforementioned second-year point guards played for playoff teams - Baron's Hornets won a playoff series, Monta Ellis and the Warriors upset the Mavs (although, as mentioned above, he didn't really do much to aid that result), Luke Ridnour and the Sonics won the Northwest division, and Deron Williams led the Jazz to the Western Conference Finals. So it can be done.

When you add it all up, it seems that Rondo's chances for stunning success greatly outweigh the odds of colossal failure. At the very least, based on his per 40 numbers from last year, he should show improved comfort with the speed of the game, limit his foul trouble, and provide solid stats along the lines of 12 points, 7 assists, and 5 boards a game. His shooting percentage should improve either slightly or greatly (even if his form doesn't) and he will likely continue to play terrific pressure defense on the ball and in passing lanes.

I have to say, I'm down with Rondo. The C's no doubt still need a capable backup, but they can cease their search for a starter. I'd argue they've already got the guy they need to win the whole thing.

Celtics Stuff: Boiled Down

This is pathetic, but I am throwing up a quick post to put all of my scattered thoughts on this Boston stuff in one place. I've been all over the map on this topic, which I'm blaming on being out of practice because of the bar exam. So here it goes:

1. On draft day, I felt that the Ray Allen trade was a good idea, because I believed (against all odds) that Danny Ainge had a master plan to use the Ratliff contract to bring in another key piece. In fact, I gave the C's an A+ for their draft. Maybe a little too enthusiastic, but to this day I am confused why everyone flipped out.

2. In the first hours of the renewed KG rumors, I made a case for Boston doing whatever it took to get Garnett, including trading Al Jefferson. I've seen several people argue this point and take the other side, using stats to make a case for Jefferson being "nearly as good" as KG. I don't buy it. I don't doubt Al's potential, but KG is a vastly superior defender and leader and he's done it in every situation. Jefferson's only stint of elite (if we can call it that) production came when Boston had already stuck a fork in its season last year. Not exactly high stakes. (Note though that I did not advise adding Ryan Gomes to a KG deal - I think Boston is really, really going to miss him.)

(I also suggested that Boston then turn Rondo and a future pick into Jose Calderon, which was apparently the result of someone slipping PCP into my Trader Joe's burrito, as numerous Raps fans kindly pointed out. I guess Colangelo is prepared to lay out big cash for Calderon and move forward with a point guard platoon that earns north of $15 mil a year. Who knew?)

3. Once the KG deal was complete, I joined the likes of ESPN's Marc Stein in a Celtics Kool-Aid drinking contest, but with the caveat that they would need to add some cheap veterans. I didn't see this as being a tremendously difficult task, considering they had the entire $6 mil exception with guys like Brevin Knight, Ime Udoka, Matt Barnes, Ruben Patterson, James Singleton, and P.J. Brown on the market. Adding the former and the latter and one of the swingmen in the middle would have rounded out this roster nicely. Instead, they opted for Eddie House and Jackie Manuel, which I found deeply disturbing.

4. Given the news that Ainge had crapped the bed with his first post-KG moves (and, in the process, betrayed the trust that I placed in him way back on draft day), I decided to see if Boston could somehow add another piece via trade. This is the post that Henry linked too in True Hoop and it is important to note that these were last gasp ideas to salvage the mess that is the Boston roster.

5. Coming soon ... why I am a Rondo Believer.

So that's where we are at. I've gone from feeling oddly (and uniquely) optimistic about the Ray Allen trade to feeling vindicated when the KG deal went down to being completely perplexed by Boston's inability and unwillingness to finish the job. I know I've asked this before, but ... Eddie House and Jackie Manuel?

Salvage Trades

As discussed below, Boston is not using free agency wisely. There is still hope of stealing a marooned free agent on the cheap or bringing in some bodies via buyouts (Troy Hudson?), but the best shot at picking up at least one more decent player in Boston is probably with a trade. The problem? They have no contracts. They've got three guys making $55 million and that's pretty much it. Kendrick Perkins makes $4.4, but they need him to log minutes at the 5 (by the way, everyone trashes Perkins, but I think he's pretty decent - at the very least he can do what Diop does in Dallas, right?). Rondo makes over a million, but he's their point guard of the future, err, present. Then they've got a bunch of loose change. It's really amazing to look at the salaries on this roster.

The only player with a salary meaty enough to move is Brian Scalabrine, but that is only because Ainge made the moronic decision to pay the guy $3 million per. Hard to imagine anyone wanting this stiff.

That said, trying to trade Scalabrine + one is probably Boston's only hope. Here are some possible deals that could help, all of them stretches (because that is the hand Ainge and Co. just dealt themselves):

(Note: for the players I thought Boston should have targeted via free agency, see this previous post.]

1. Scalabrine ($3MM) to the Warriors for Jasikevicius ($4MM). Boston would have to add a contract - any contract - to this to get within 125% on each side, but this trade might work. Golden State has no use for the former Maryland Terrapin/Team USA destroyer so they might be willing to get rid of him and save a few bucks on Scalabrine, who could have some value in Oakland as a backup forward. This is basically a swap of crap for crap, except that Jasikevicius could really help Boston and be a nice compliment to Rondo off the bench. He's good enough that he shouldn't be doing his best Mateen Cleaves impression and waving towels on the end of the Warriors bench. If G-State doesn't want him, maybe Boston can steal him away.

(Speaking of Golden State, now that KG is no longer an option, what exactly is the master plan over there? I still contend that the Richardson-for-Wright trade was a good one, but it seemed like that was the first of a series of moves. Are they going after Yi? Are they so excited about Bellini that they are calling it a day? When will they decide between Barnes and Pietrus? I'll admit, the Warriors interest me greatly.)

2. Scalabrine and Tony Allen (total $4.9MM) to Houston for Rafer Alston and Steve Novak (total $5.2MM). The Rockets are desperately trying to get rid of Rafer Alston and will probably see any successful attempt to do so as addition by subtraction. Plus, if Houston - who has added three point guards, Luis Scola, and tons of depth in the past two months - has one remaining weak spot it is the need for an athletic wing defender. With their depth, the Rockets can afford to gamble on Allen's return to health and they can absorb Scalabrine into the bench. Meanwhile, Boston gets a more experienced - if somewhat shaky - point guard to pair with Rondo and a much better shooter to bring off the bench in Novak. The loss of Allen - if healthy - would be tough to swallow, but the last thing this Jurassic team needs is another health concern. The addition of point guard depth and shooting makes it worth. Not to mention the fact that the Manuel signing would actually make some sense without Allen on the roster.

3. Scalabrine and Leon Powe (total $3.67MM) to Memphis for Damon Stoudemire ($4.3MM). This deal actually works for both teams and fits under the cap. If Boston believes Big Baby is ready to contribute then they have no need for Powe, since both are undersized power forwards. This allows the C's to include Powe with Scalabrine in an effort to tempt Memphis into giving up Stoudemire. It shouldn't be too hard. Mighty Mouse isn't in the Grizzlies' plans anymore and having Scalabrine rot on the bench won't be any different than having Damon rot on the bench. But the addition of Powe gives Memphis one more young player to add to a growing mix that includes Conley, Lowry, Gay, and Warrick, not to mention Mike Miller and Pau Gasol. As for the Celtics, they might not be getting a world-beater in Stoudemire, but he fills in all of Rondo's problem areas with scoring and experience and could really help their second unit. Plus, since Memphis recently waived Alexander Johnson, Boston could pick him up for cheap and it would be like getting two players back in the deal.

(By the way, Boston should right this minute be offering every bench player on its roster for Kyle Lowry. I doubt Memphis will trade him, but considering they drafted Conley instead of Horford, you never know.)

[Update: Clearly the California bar exam has fried my brain as Horford went #3 to the Hawks and Conley #4 to the Grizz, making my statement above impossible and idiotic. Still, drafting Conley one year after taking Lowry doesn't exactly scream "We love Kyle!" Maybe Boston could get him. I doubt it though.]

4. Future Pick to Portland for Jarrett Jack ($1.2MM). Boston doesn't have a lot of draft picks left to trade, but I don't know what else they can offer Portland that makes sense. Jack could really help Boston's bench and doesn't seem to have a place in Portland where Blake is the PG of now and Sergio Rodriguez is the PG of tomorrow. And the Blazers have so many players on the roster I can't imagine them wanting another asset in return. Maybe this could work. Also, Boston should keep an eye out for a Darius Miles buyout. He's a lunatic but they are officially in gambling mode anyway.

None of those trades are likely to happen, nor will any of them truly solve Boston's roster problems, but they might be the best chance the Celtics have of rounding out this team and competing for a spot in the Finals.

Eddie House and Jackie Manuel?

Come on, Danny Ainge. When I went on record saying that Boston was 2-3 pieces from being the favorite in the East, I didn't mean any pieces. In fact, the list of appropriate options was included in the post and nowhere on it did the names House and Manuel appear.

Honestly, the way Boston is rounding out its roster is depressing. I know it is stupid to trust this front office with a master plan, but from the minute they mortgaged the future to acquire Ray Allen, I've assumed that there was a big picture plan of attack to use young assets and Ratliff's contract to bring in another star. And that once that star was in place, that they would go on a luxury-tax-be-damned mission to get veterans on the cheap, like the Lakers did with GP and Malone a few years ago.

Well, up until yesterday, it was all going according to plan. But then suddenly, mysteriously, Boston pulled up short before Step Three in the process. Hours after trading for the most expensive player in the NBA (and re-singing him), they decided they didn't want to get into luxury tax territory. What? I'm sorry, but that isn't an option at this point. They need to cobble contracts together and make another move for a vet. They need to spend every last cent of their exception to fill out the bench. They can't pull the reigns back now. It's insanity.

Eddie House is not the answer as a backup point guard, especially on a team with Ray Allen. Jackie Manuel couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, and even if he turns out to be a Quentin Ross type player (best case scenario), he can't log minutes at the 4, which means he is pretty much worthless (since Ray-Ray, Pierce, and Tony Allen will play all the minutes at the 2-3 spots).

The Celtics just used up some cash and some roster spots on guys who can't help them. That's the bottom line. And perhaps this can be salvaged on some level by a creative trade or a P.J. Brown signing for the minimum or even getting Matt Barnes on the cheap now that he's desperately playing agent roulette ... but we are starting to reach Hail Mary territory. Already.

I guess I should have known better than to trust Danny Ainge. Guys like Brevin Knight, James Singleton, and Ruben Patterson could have helped this team and been had for a song. Instead, he signed freaking Eddie House and Jackie Manuel. Wow.

And I'm not even a Boston fan. I can only imagine how frustrating this is them.

With the KG Trade Finalized ...

I'm very curious to see what Boston does to round out the roster. As detailed in a previous post, I felt this was a great trade for the Celtics and thought it was a no-brainer to use the Ratliff bargaining chip in conjunction with Jefferson to give themselves a shot at winning now. Allen, Pierce, and KG are all fantastic players and - even more importantly - they should mesh well together given their different strengths.

However, it will be very interesting to see where Boston goes from here. They obviously must round out the roster in advance of the 2008 trade deadline because while these guys aren't ready for retirement, they aren't young either. Boston is probably only going to get 2 or 3 years of elite level play from this trio, so they must complete the roster and aim for the Finals immediately.

I personally think Rondo will make a big step forward this year and now that the Toronto contingent has ruled out a Calderon trade, I think Boston can stand pat at starting point guard. Rondo can push pace, apply pressure on defense, and get into the lane to create for Allen on the wing. He'll be more than adequate as a 30-35 minutes a game guy. However, Boston needs more than rookie Gabe Pruitt to back him up. In fact, I would contend that Boston actually needs a veteran 20 mpg point guard that can spell Rondo early and actually replace him late to run the offense. Boston could definitely get by with a platoon featuring the young buck and an experienced vet out of the Avery Johnson mold. My buddy Josh Stump wondered in an email today whether Brevin Knight had signed with anyone and I thought that was a perfect fit for Boston. Knight is fragile and can't log huge minutes (not can he shoot at all), but he knows how to run a team and could be a perfect closer as well as a tutor to Rondo.

In fact, it is Boston's bench that concerns me. In my previous post, I discussed why the inclusion of Al Jefferson shouldn't bother Celtic fans, and I stand by all the points I made at that time. However, I will note that the proposed deal didn't include Ryan Gomes. I think his inclusion will be costly for Boston. He was a hard worker and a versatile player that really would have given this team some help as the first forward off the pine and now he's off in the land of lakes where his subtle skills will be totally wasted.

That is why I would argue that Boston needs to focus on the bench. Rondo is going to be fine as long as they bring in a vet to help him out. Perkins is going to be fine with KG there to mentor and protect him in the middle. I really think the starting lineup is set. However, they can't feel great about a second unit that features Pruitt, Tony Allen (recovering from an ACL tear), Scalabrine, Big Baby Davis, and Leon Powe. That is zero centers, zero natural point guards, zero shooters, and about 10 total years of experience. I'm actually expecting Powe to give them some punch in the middle, for Allen to make it back (he was playing great last year), and for the rookies to come along nicely. That said, they still need to add two pieces to the bench.

The first is covered above, as Boston needs to add a veteran point guard on the cheap. Again, Knight would be ideal but even a guy like Jason Hart would do. Notice I said "like" Jason Hart, because the real version already signed with Utah. Then they need to add a versatile small forward type that can guard people and allow Boston to shift Pierce down or Garnett up to go big or small. Getting some shooting from that player wouldn't hurt either. Morris Peterson would have been ideal, but he just signed with New Orleans. Perhaps James Posey? He seemed washed up last year, but as recently as the 2006 Finals, he was a beast. Ime Udoka would be a huge add, but aren't the Spurs rumored to be offering him quit a bit of cash? I'm not sure how much coin Boston could throw at him. Ruben Patterson seems like a pretty good option. Matt Barnes is appealing but probably won't want to sign for less money to come off the bench when he's got such a good thing going in Oakland.

All told, here are the players Boston might want to target to fill those two positions, with only a midlevel to split between them:

PG - Brevin Knight, Earl Boykins, Troy Hudson (ironically, as he was just bought out by the Wolves), Darrick Martin, Eddie House, Mike Wilks.

F - Ime Udoka, Ruben Patterson, Matt Barnes, James Singleton, James Posey, P.J. Brown, Devin Brown, Austin Croshere, Kelvin Cato, Jumaine Jones.

As you can see, the pickings are pretty slim. And that proves that the biggest problem with the KG trade wasn't all the guys that Boston had to give up, but the fact that they couldn't get it done until now, when all the decent free agents were already locked up to deals.

Still, hope is not lost, as there are some decent players on that list. If Ainge can get even one veteran to sign for less than $1 mil, he can spend $2.5 mil each on two other guys. It seems plausible that his $6 million midlevel could net a combination like Knight, Patterson, and P.J. Brown.

With those three players, suddenly the roster looks like this:

PG Rondo
SG R. Allen
SF Pierce
PF Garnett
C Perkins
B - Knight
B - T. Allen
B - Patterson
B - P.J. Brown
B - Powe
B - Big Baby
B - Pruitt

With Big Baby and Pruitt moved all the way down to the 11/12 spots on the depth chart, suddenly the bench doesn't seem so thin. And Knight, Allen, Patterson, and Brown would give Boston some real quality defense coming off the bench.

With a few more quality moves, Ainge can have this team positioned as the favorite in the East.

Quick Baseball Post

I know I just got done saying that this was going to become a basketball only blog in any future versions, but I have to take a moment to point out the nights where Pepperdine alums Noah Lowry and Dan Haren both get W's. Haren continued his push for the AL Cy Young (he's winning on my ballot) by improving to 13-3 with a 2.44 ERA and Lowry continued his recent hot stretch by pitching in and out of trouble in route to a 3-1 victory over the Giants that upped his record to 12-7 and lowered his ERA to 3.32.

It seems like just yesterday I was spending lazy Friday afternoons at Eddy D. Field watching Haren and Lowry lead a Pepperdine team that won 50+ games. Basketball focus or not, I'm going to give these guys some love whenever they both win on the same night.

Talking Celtics

It should have been a sleepy Monday morning in NBA land, as the Kobe stuff has totally dissipated, the ref scandal is still looming large enough to cast a pall over any actual roster moves, and the U.S. national team has closed up shop until mid August. I mean, at the end of last week, the biggest stories dealt with Juan Carlos Navarro's eventual destination and whether the Heat might want Rafer Alston. Not exactly the stuff of a PTI lead in.

But now the KG-to-Boston rumors are popping up again, which means we might be in for a fun day of refreshing web pages and reading flimsy speculation. Personally, I usually just check True Hoop 10 times a day to get the needed info (seriously, all anyone needs from ESPN to follow hoops these days is ESPN news and Henry's blog), which is how I first heard about the renewed talks and also where I learned that there is a version of the deal that doesn't involve Al Jefferson.

A few thoughts:

Ray Allen in Retrospect. First, I realize that I was in the minority in regard to the Ray Allen trade. It probably didn't make much sense to many people to mortgage the future for an aging All-Star when the roster couldn't make a run at the Finals. And certainly Danny Ainge had made enough bad moves and course corrections in the past five years to eliminate any benefit of the doubt. That said, for some reason, I was quite sure that there would be more to come from the Celtics. Even after the trade they still had future picks, some young talent (Gerald Green always seems to excite people who haven't seen him play defense), and Theo Ratliff's expiring contract. Not to mention the ultimate trade chip in Al Jefferson. So to think they were "stuck" with Pierce and Allen and a bunch of kids was ridiculous. You certainly couldn't assume that Ainge would put the whole thing together, but their dealings were clearly incomplete.

KG Rumors. Now there are reports that Boston might have a shot at KG in a variety of deals both with and without Jefferson. Obviously, Boston fans are hoping for the latter and I've even heard some C's fans say that they would rather keep Jefferson than get Garnett. Which is crazy.

Jefferson is a good young player who put up great numbers last year. I enjoyed a great deal of success in my fantasy leagues thanks to him. However, before people start saying he's better than Dwight Howard or untouchable, it is important to remember the issue of context. Jefferson had been an underachiever and a guy who couldn't quite "get it" right up until the moment that Pierce went down with an injury and Boston decided to tank the season last year. So all of a sudden Big Al is running around with a bunch of rookies and playing glorified summer league games. I'm not saying he didn't improve, but I am saying that all that improvement came in pretty carefree circumstances. It wasn't exactly Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals whenever he stepped on the floor.

Not only that, but Jefferson is a mediocre defender at best. He doesn't do a particularly good job of denying post position and he always seems a step slow with his help defense. For a team that defends the paint like they are allergic to it, Jefferson isn't exactly the guy you want anchoring the interior.

KG on the other hand has done his thing in every imaginable situation. He's come up big in the playoffs, he's played through injuries, he's dominated international play and All-Star games. There isn't a scenario out there that I could imagine throwing him for a loop. So you can actually pencil in his numbers as opposed to projecting some garbage time stats and then crossing your fingers, as you would have to do with Jefferson. Not only that, but KG answers all of Boston's questions on the defensive end. He would be a dramatic upgrade over Jefferson on that end of the floor and a guy who can help teach a player like Kendrick Perkins. Much like when Greg Maddux joins a pitching staff, you are basically getting both a player and a coach for your younger guys.

All of that explains why I think Boston should pull the trigger on a KG deal even if it includes Jefferson. I think Jefferson is becoming overvalued right now and since Boston has mortgaged their future for "right now" anyway, there is no need to cling to a young guy who might take a step backward right when you need him to become an elite post player.

If I'm the Celtics, I hang on to those future first round picks and offer up a package of Jefferson, Green, Telfair, and Ratliff's expiring deal (a package Minnesota should happily take, by the way) and move forward with the goal of winning the NBA Finals.

Eventual Celtics Roster. How would such a roster look at that point?

Well, the deal outlined above would enable Boston to retain promising young point guard Rajon Rondo, recovering stopper Tony Allen, Perkins, and capable young bigs in Leon Powe and Big Baby Davis. Having only Gabe Pruitt has a backup point guard is a problem, but every team in the East has holes. Besides, Boston can still use its midlevel to round out the roster.

(And if there is any way they could possibly do it, Boston should try to trade for Toronto backup Jose Calderon. Maybe, just maybe, the Raptors undervalue him and would give him up. Maybe.)

Here is the roster I see taking care of business in the East next year:

PG - Rajon Rondo
SG - Ray Allen
SF - Paul Pierce
PF - Kevin Garnett
C - Kendrick Perkins
B - Tony Allen
B - Ryan Gomes
B - Big Baby Davis
B - Leon Powe
B - TBD

I honestly think that team is in the NBA Finals next year.

Seriously.

Don't Call It A Comeback

Actually, okay, you can call it that.

Many (read: a handful) of you are wondering where I've been, why I haven't commented on the referee scandal, and what the future of this blog looks like. Here are answers to those three questions:

1. Where I've Been. I believe it was mentioned in previous posts, but I've been busy preparing for, taking, and recovering from the California state bar exam. I think it went well (the dreaded multiple choice leaves you with no idea whether you passed or not), but won't know until November. While preparing, I couldn't pursue my other interests and hobbies without feeling guilty, so I just studied all day long. But now it is over.

2. Why I Haven't Discussed the Referee Scandal. For starters, see above. This whole thing happened during my hiatus from blogging, which meant there was no chance I would be talking about it at length on this space. However, I probably would have passed anyway. The coverage of this was oversaturated to begin with and it all seemed too depressing to really sink my teeth into. I will say that my gut reaction when I first heard was "suck it, Stern." I'm not saying that the NBA should have prevented this or that it is David Stern's fault, but I do think he deserved to get a nice, juicy scandal dropped in his lap. He's become so drunk on power the last few years and so completely ignorant about domestic issues in his fan base that he officially reached the point where he deserved to get crapped on. If this whole scandal humbles him or forces major changes in the way the NBA is run and administered, or even provides us with a new commissioner, it will be well worth it. I know that sounds messed up, but that's just how I feel.

(As for the NBA games being rigged ... of course they are! We've all known this for years, haven't we?)

3. The Future of This Blog. Those of you who also read the columns over at WhatifSports will note that my column doesn't exist anymore. The process of leaving the site has been in the works for a while and we were communicating about the best way to end things ... and then suddenly they stopped communicating and just eliminated any trace of my existence. Yeah, weird. So the first step will probably be to change the web address of this blog, which shouldn't be a huge deal since I think I drove away all but 3 or 4 readers with the extended absence.

Beyond changing the IP address, the future of the blog is a bit up in the air. As mentioned above, I finished the bar, which means I start working at a law firm in a few weeks. No longer living the glorious life of a student means fewer hours in the day to write, which is a problem because now I have far more writing projects than I can handle. The blog might be a casualty of the new schedule. We shall see.

For now, I am going to keep throwing up some posts when the mood strikes. I'll be gone all of next week and am unlikely to post much during my first few weeks at the new job, so the next month makes for a good test run to see if the page can survive in a diminished capacity. It may require bringing in co-bloggers, or coming up with a gimmick to support a one-post-a-day kind of thing, or it may result in official retirement from the blogging game.

If the blog does survive and thrive, it will officially become an all-NBA blog, because I think the only way to post content that is in any way worth reading is to pick your favorite sport and specialize there. Over time, with enough quality insight, lucky predictions, and humor, people will eventually start clicking on the link to get your take. So even though it pains me to abandon other sports in a year where I have a legitimate shot at picking every MLB playoff team (right now the Cubs are a half-game out of first in the NL Central and the Phillies are two games back in the Wild Card - all other picks are correct), I feel there is no choice but to focus on basketball, and to use the NBA as the viewpoint for all things basketball (including the NCAA tournament).

That was probably too much information, but I'm convinced that blogs are only worthwhile these days if there is specialization and transparency. I already explained the former and this whole post explains the latter.

I'll be back soon with thoughts on the latest KG rumors.

Summer League Shockers

I'm taking a little break from studying for the California bar exam, and here is what I discovered from the first two days of the Vegas summer league:

1. Marco Belinelli is sick! The Warriors new first round pick went for 37 bones on 14-of-20 shooting in his debut. I know that summer league is a bad proxy (Skita, anyone?) for NBA success and that Belinelli joins the ranks of Keith Bogans and Ike Diogu as the all-time top single game scorers in Vegas league history, but still, 37 is 37. Plus, he looks like a perfect fit in that offense and if I remember correctly, this is how he played against Team USA in that exhibition. (Wasn't that in Vegas as well? Maybe if the Sonics move there, they should trade for this dude.) I think he's for real and will pour in about 150 threes next year. I can't wait to take him in the 11th round of my fantasy draft.

2. Memphis is going to be pretty solid. Gasol and Mike Miller are legit, Rudy Gay is showing his promise (at the expense of Yi's face), and Mike Conley appears to be the real deal. He looks a lot like Chris Paul in the way he controls tempo and plays with both hands. The Grizzlies still need help on the frontline - which is probably why they are about to slap an offer sheet in Anderson Varejao's mailbox - but I really think they can get back to .500 next year and build for the future.

3. The Blazers are stoked. This might seem like an odd opinion considering Oden's rough first game and the fact that Rudy Fernandez is considering accepting an offer in Barcelona that will keep him abroad for years, but I think yesterday was a positive day for Rip City. That is because LaMarcus Aldridge was treating the Celtics summer league team like a bunch of kids. He went for 26 and 11 on a dizzying array of post moves, turnarounds (Hakeem would be proud), and 20-foot jumpers. He also showed no signs of that Wolf-Pakistan disease or whatever it was called. Portland knows Oden will be a beast and anchor the D for years and they know they will have the perimeter talent eventually, but I think they were really crossing their fingers with Aldridge. If he's healthy and continues to develop, he could be a dominant power forward in the NBA. And that could be the difference between contender and dynasty. And yes, I'm one step closer to being named the president of the LaMarcus Aldridge Fan Club. So be it.

4. Nice, job, Billy King! King's latest first round picks - Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith - were abysmal in their summer league debuts. And it wasn't Greg Oden "a bit out of sorts, needs to find the range" abysmal, it was "wow, that guy looks like he's never played basketball" abysmal. King is the absolute, well, king of GM ineptitude.

5. A Spurs and Cavs game is still boring. 67 to 53. In a 40-minute game. Are you serious?