Immediate Draft Thoughts

Never go to bed on an empty stomach. Never let the sun set on an argument. Never wait until the next day to post some thoughts on the NBA Draft.

Words to live by.

Anyway, here are some quick hits from my favorite sports day of the year.

1. Kevin Pritchard Owns the NBA Draft. One year after getting pretty much all the good players in the 2006 Draft, the Blazers' GM once again dominated the event. He resisted the Siren Song of Kevin Durant in order to pick the artist that will eventually be known as Four-Time Finals MVP Greg Oden at #1. This was significant not only because Oden is going to be the Next Gen Tim Duncan in terms of interior dominance, but because it gave Portland maximum flexibility to shape the rest of the roster. This was evident when the Blazers peddled Zach Randolph in the middle of the first round in exchange for Channing Frye and Steve Francis' skeleton. On paper, this seemed a bit puzzling, as you would imagine there being a better market for a 24-10 guy that can crush on the low block. But apparently the Bulls aren't biting and the Mavs don't want to overpay for a guy they would bring off the bench. And bringing Rasheed Wallace back to town? Forget it. So the Randolph market wasn't that great, which makes sense when you remember that his high school coach once said something along the lines of: every day that I read the paper and see that Zach didn't die or wasn't involved in a death is a good day. I guess a few GM's heard that one as well.

Anyway. The other part of the deal that seems bad at first blush is that Frye is really a slightly lesser version of LaMarcus Aldridge. And Steve Francis blows. So where is the value? The value is that they can buy out Francis and get a bit of short term savings and some huge long term cap relief when Stevie Franchise (now THAT has become a hilarious nickname) comes off the books in 2009. I sincerely doubt he will ever step foot in the Rose Garden's home locker room. As for Frye, he may or may not have a home in the rotation or even in a Frankensteinish three-bigs front court with two gazelle-like 6'11 guys flanking Oden. Doesn't matter. Because Frye has value around the league and can be packaged with other assets to bring in the 3 that the Blazers need. My hunch is that they bring Steve Blake back to run the point, put Roy, Udoka, Aldridge, and Oden in the starting lineup, let Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez, Demetris Nichols (for his shooting), Josh McRoberts, and Joel Przybilla come off the bench, and then use Frye and Martell Webster to unload Darius Miles and bring a legit small forward back in return. That's just my hunch.

Speaking of Nichols and McRoberts, the rest of the night was superb for Portland. They got a top-20 player in McRoberts with pick #37 (classic case of an overexposed Duke guy dropping too far - he's no Carlos Boozer and I actually don't think he's all that great, but he will make people pay for this), the shooter they desperately needed with pick #53, and somehow managed to add Taurean Green, Petteri Koponen (who I felt like I knew, thanks to Henry Abbots' work over at True Hoop), AND Rudi Feranandez ... all for a handful of cash. Are you serious? They have so many assets and parts and guys stashed overseas (Koponen and Fernandez join Brit Joel Freeland across the pond) that it is a little ridiculous. In three years, they are going to have a lineup of:

PG - Sergio Rodrigeuz (next Tony Parker)
SG - Brandon Roy
SF - Ime Udoka (next Bruce Bowen, except not dirty)
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge
C - Greg Oden
6th - Rudy Fernandez (next Ginobili)

Throw in tough-minded coach Nate McMillan and savvy GM Pritchard and you can see why the Blazers are shaping up to be the next San Antonio. And that doesn't even consider all the moves they might make, from trades, to free agent signings, to draft picks.

Okay, I'd better move on to point #2.

2. Celtics Do Well. I don't care what Stephen A. Smith or Mark Jackson say, Boston did a great job tonight. In fact, I'm still incredibly confused by the lashing they gave the C's on national television. Am I missing something? Do they think that Boston traded the rights to Durant rather than Jeff Green? I mean, I'm a Jeff Green fan, but it's not like he's a mortal lock to the make the Hall of Fame or anything. And to get rid of Wally Z in the process? Did Delonte West become the Bionic Man in the past month? Seriously, I am perplexed. If I'm not mistaken, Boston was able to free up the point guard spot for Rajon Rondo, keep Paul Pierce happy, add Big Baby to the middle, draft Gabe Pruitt for backcourt depth, and pick up Ray Freaking Allen. And that's not a great night? I know Allen is almost 32, but last time I checked, 32 wasn't the new 40. Steve Nash won his second MVP at age 32 and was even better last season at 33. Plus, Allen is a jump shooter, which means he will probably hold up better than most shooting guards as he gets older. The guy has at least three great seasons left in him. And with Rondo, Allen, Pierce, and Jefferson, the Celtics become an immediate contender in the East. PLUS, they didn't have to include Theo Ratliff's expiring contract in the deal, which gives them a fantastic trade chip for the summer of even next year's deadline. I give them an A+ on the night, yet the ESPN guys were just killing them. Strange. Then again, the ESPN guys were calling Portland the biggest losers of the draft last year and we all know how that turned out.

3. Could Phoenix Be Any Cheaper? This is getting ridiculous. If my man Sarver can't afford to pay rookies, he might want to sell the club. For the second year in a row, Phoenix sold a first round pick to Portland for straight cash money. The Blazers must be in heaven. Find a Spanish player you like? Buy him from the Suns! Steve Nash probably feels like choking someone right now. Quick, get KG to the desert before they both go insane. (Note: I did like both the Tucker and Strawberry picks. Those guys are immediate upgrades over James Jones and Marcus Banks.)

4. Houston, You Have a Problem. Cheesy pun alert! But seriously, what were the Rockets doing? They might need a power forward more than any team in the last decade, they were on the board with several intriguing (if not totally safe) prospects sitting there in Big Baby, McRoberts, and Nick Fazekas. Instead, they took Aaron Brooks, who I like, but becomes their fourth undersized guard, joining Rafer Alston, Luther Head, and the recently acquired Mike James. Did they forget that they JUST traded Juwan Howard for James? Were the Houston execs reenacting scenes from Scarface by snorting mounds of coke before their pick? I want an explanation or a trade or something that justifies this. And then to compound the lunacy, they took some Australian guard just one pick before nemesis Utah grabbed super sleeper Herbert Hill. I give Houston an F- for this draft.

5. Other "F-" Performances.. The Lakers, for taking a point guard who isn't ready (Javaris Crittenton) one year after taking a point guard who wasn't ready. Milwaukee, for taking a guy who doesn't even want to set foot in your city and might set off a diplomatic showdown that has the makings of 24: Day Seven. And, of course, Philadelphia. Although, technically, the late Byers pick probably bumps them to more like a D+, I am still putting them in this group. Leave it to Billy King to have THREE picks in the first round of one of the deepest drafts in years and come away with zero starters. Al Thornton was available and ready to start right away; King passed. Julian Wright was a steal at #12; King passed. Instead, he went with project Thaddeus Young, who simply isn't going to be as good as either of those guys. Then, so worried was he that Miami might take Jason Smith (yeah, right), he doled out some cash to swap picks. Which means that they gave up Igoudala's running mate for the next decade in Daequan Cook AND a bag of money in order to take a power forward who doesn't rebound. Oh yeah, and their biggest need was rebounding. Stellar work, Billy King, as always.

6. "A" Performances. I don't want to focus entirely on the negatives, so I'll mention the teams that cleaned up as well. Obviously, Portland headlines this group. And I've got Boston in there as well. Seattle gets an A for taking Durant, bringing in Green, bringing Lewis back into play, and completely remaking the roster in one night. They are seriously going to be fun to watch. (And I LOVE that Carl Landry pick.) Washington gets at least an A- for nabbing their new shooting guard, Nick Young (pack your bags, Deshawn Stevenson), at #16 and then adding a Kirilenko/Gerald Wallace/Josh Smith type of forward in Dominic McGuire at #47. I'm not saying McGuire will become a starter or even an immediate rotation player, but I think the offchance that his freakish skill set could transform the Washington defense makes it a great pick. Finally, Atlanta gets an A for not blowing the draft and for taking two guys - Al Horford and Acie Law - who should step in at the 5 and 1, join Joe Johnson, Smith, and Childress/Marvin Williams/Shelden Williams (take your pick) and form a decent starting lineup next year.

I also give the Warriors an A, because they accomplished so much and did it under the radar. They moved Jason Richardson, who is a very good player and appeared to be a "true Warrior" this spring, but who also has a heafty contract and a history of injury problems. That was a true "sell high" move right out of the fantasy hoops playbook. It also means they can play Monta Ellis at the 2 and Stephen Jackson at the 3 with #18 pick Belinelli (who is going to be really good) and possibly Matt Barnes in that mix. And in the frontcourt they now go Harrington, Biedrins, and Brandan Wright. For Wright, this is a dream come true. Nellie knows how to bring young bigs along, the uptempo style will make his transition (pun intended) easier, and he won't have the pressure of playing for UNC Overlord Michael Jordan. I expect Wright to be a steal and for the first time, I actually think G-State can build on the exciting spring. Speaking of the Warriors ...

7. Yi Trade in Order? First, this Yi fellow seems to be a bit of a d-bag if you ask me. Either that, or his agent is secretly Scott Boras deciding to get into hoops and hide behind a Chinese syndicate. Furthermore, don't be surprised if you come back from a bathroom break tomorrow, refresh your web browser, and see that the Bucks and Warriors have made a deal. I have the sneaking suspicion that Larry Harris took Yi at #6 with the knowledge that the #8 pick was for sale (from Charlotte), that the Warriors REALLY wanted Yi, and that G-State might be willing to part with some goodies to make it happen. My hunch is that Harris set this whole thing in motion and informed the Warriors that Yi could be had for Wright Plus. What "Plus" is I have no idea, because Monta Ellis would seem to be off the table in light of the J-Rich trade, but you never know. Maybe a future pick? The premium probably won't be high, but it will be enough to make it worth Harris' time to bother with Yi, rather than just take Wright at #6. But my gut feeling is that Wright is the guy Milwaukee wanted all along and that they will wind up with him soon, along with something else fairly nice.

8. Bulls Do The Best They Can. I'll never forgive Chicago for sitting on that Pau Gasol trade. I've been over this a million times, but it still makes no sense. They basically gave Tyson Chandler away, never used P.J. Brown's oh-so-valuable expiring contract, and hoped that someone would come their way dirt cheap or via the draft once the summer rolled around. Whoops. The #9 pick wasn't going to yield the lowpost scorer they need and it doesn't appear they can make the numbers work for any of the bigs like KG or Jermaine O'Neal. So now they are stuck adding a no-offense big man to a team full of no-offense big men. And this just one year after trading a polished post scorer in LaMarcus Aldridge on the day of the draft. John Paxson must hate lowpost scoring. All of that said, I actually really liked the Noah pick. After all of the backlash, I'm starting to think he could really be an important cog on a title team someday and I think his passing ability will be really valuable in creating open shots for his Bulls teammates. Plus, they really lucked out getting Aaron Gray deep in the draft. He's not all that great, but my bet is that he winds up having just as good of a career as Spencer Hawes. Heck, he immediately becomes the best post option on the Bulls team.

9. Utah Does it Again. Once again, Kevin O'Connor has nabbed a legit rotation guy deep in the second round. Herbert Hill should slide in right next to Paul Millsap as a "surprising" contributor next year. Not only that, but the Jazz nailed their first round pick as well, scooping up the pure-shooting Morris Almond, who would immediately step in as the starting shooting guard if Jerry Sloan didn't hate rookies so much.

10. Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell Are Stoked. I was curious to see how the Pistons would draft this year. They had retread guys (Flip Murray and Lindsay Hunter) providing depth in the backcourt, with young guns bolstering the frontcourt (I'm not counting Antonio McDyess since he's a free agent, nor am I counting Nazr Mohammed, because I think he might have vanished). I wondered if the Pistons would draft help in both areas or if they would show confidence in the young bigs and draft all perimeter players. The answer was loud and clear. Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo went in the first round and the dude from DePaul went late, giving Detroit three young guards to add to the mix. Throw in Alex Acker, who is busy crushing overseas, and the Pistons should be set on the perimeter. Well, provided Billups re-signs, of course.

The Draft (Advisory) Board

Now that most of the boxes are unpacked and we almost have Internet access, it seems like a fine time to start getting up some posts. Oh yeah, and my favorite day of the year, the NBA Draft is just 48 hours away.

To kick things off, I decided to do a mock lottery, except that rather than predict what teams are going to do, I'm going to opine about what they should do. I might take a shot at a mock draft on Thursday, but honestly, how do I know what teams are thinking?

So here is my advisory mock draft:

1. Seattle (from Portland) - Greg Oden. Of the two Northwest teams, Seattle is the one with the clearest need. The Blazers could always use a potentially dominant center, but they also have a current and glaring need at the 3 and no doubt a desire to avoid passing on the Next Jordan ... after they passed on the actual Jordan. The answer to this problem is a swap of the picks. Portland could demand a point guard back, a future pick, pretty much whatever they want. I've always preferred Rashard Lewis as the target, but if they make the move to land Durant, Lewis becomes overkill on the wing. I'll go with Seattle's first round pick in 2008.

(Note: If Portland can get Lewis for Randolph, this trade never happens, they happily take Oden at #1 and roll out a Jack, Roy, Lewis, Aldridge, Randolph, Oden nucleus next year while entertaining offers for Zebo.)

2. Portland (from Seattle) - Kevin Durant. I think deep down they want Durant and if that is the case, they should just take him. But, as mentioned above, they should exact a high price from the Sonics in the process. I still think Oden is the guy for Portland, if only because I think the Bulls would eventually come around on a Nocioni/Gordon for Randolph trade, which would give Portland a nucleus of Jack, Roy, Gordon, Udoka, Nocioni, Aldridge, and Oden. Not bad.

3. Atlanta - Al Horford. After all his mistakes, Billy Knight has been handed the chance to make it all right. He has a no-brainer on the board at 3 and a plethora of point guard options at 11. If he can't execute this draft, he needs to be fired on the spot. As in, before he leaves the building. Horford isn't getting the pub of Oden, Durant, or even Yi, but he is going to be a beast of an NBA player. I don't think his situation is unlike that of Chris Bosh and D-Wade in 2003, during the LeBron/Melo (and, ahem, Darko) draft.

4. Memphis - Joakim Noah. Everyone is talking about Memphis like they are the dregs of the NBA, jsut because they packed it in after Gasol's injury last year and decided to tank. This team is actually pretty good. They obviously miss Shane Battier, but I think Rudy Gay is going to ease that pain considerably this year. I expect Gay to make a huge leap during Year Two. They also have Mike Miller on the other wing and the totally underrated Gasol in the post. Noah is a perfect fit as an active frontcourt player than can guard centers and keep Pau free to roam. I'm sure Conley is tempting here, but they absolutely need to give Kyle Lowery a chance before drafting another Point Guard of the Future.

5. Phoenix (from Boston) - Corey Brewer. I suggested this over a month ago, but I have a feeling Shawn Marion is going to Boston in exchange for Brewer and the eventually expiring contract of Theo Ratliff. The Suns are bummed they missed getting a pick in the 4-6 range, they are desperate to cut salary, and they need to break up this Amare-Marion stalemate. I really don't think they are getting KG for Marion, so they might as well move the Matrix elsewhere. And while he's threatened not to re-sign in Boston, he won't have a choice once he realizes it will take a $5-million pay cut to opt out in 2008. Plus, I think he will rather enjoy playing between Pierce and Jefferson in the downtrodden East. As for the Suns, Brewer steps right into the starting lineup, improves the defense, and gives them a big upgrade over Marion regarding corner three balls.

6. Milwaukee - Mike Conley. Mo Williams is off and running and about to be the 2007-08 version of Mike James, so the Bucks will need a point guard. And preferably a guy that will actually look to pass the ball to Michael Redd. Conley is the guy. Easy pick.

(Note: if the Bucks like Law, they could try to trade down and take him instead. They could probably get Childress and #11 from Atlanta or Maggette and the #14 from the Clippers. Either deal would give them a win-now rookie point guard and solve their small forward problem at the same time. Plus, it would allow Atlanta or L.A. to get Conley. Win-win!)

7. Minnesota - Yi Jianlin. I'm expecting a whopper of a KG trade, but I don't know where and I don't know to whom. My Phoenix-Boston swap above probably restricts the Wolves' ability to deal Garnett, but then again, maybe not, considering KG won't go to Boston and Minny wants Amare for him. Regardless of where KG goes, I think the Wolves will go very young and stockpile talent. That means that Yi at #7 becomes a fantastic pick, from both a basketball and marketing perspective.

8. Philadelphia (from Charlotte) - Branden Wright. The Bobcats are a bit rudderless right now (see: taking Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy last year just because Roy didn't work out for them) and are probably better served dropping down a bit and getting two legit players (with less attention paid to position) than screwing up a shot at keying in on one impact player. The Sixers are a great trade partner because Philly has picks at 12, 21, and 30. It would probably take the former combo to get #8, but 12/30 might do it as well. Either way, this is Philly's golden opportunity to get a frontcourt scorer to go with Igoudala. Wright is slipping on draft boards, but I insist we are looking at the next Chris Bosh. By the summer of 2009, Wright will have joined the likes of Paul Pierce and Caron Butler of absolute studs that slipped for no good reason at all.

9. Chicago - Spencer Hawes. The Bulls would be crazy not to take Wright if he's there (Chad Ford's latest Mock had them passing on him for being too similar to Tyrus Thomas, which is maybe the oddest statement he's ever made, since they are nothing alike), but on my board, he's gone. And the Bulls are also crazy not to snatch up Zach Randolph (who might be the single most ideal person in the NBA to line up next to Ben Wallace, for myriad reasons I won't explain right now), but since they seem unlikely to do so - and probably can't get Gasol or KG now - they are stuck bringing in lowpost scoring via the draft. And that means Hawes, who just isn't going to be that good. Ugh. (Right now, nobody is more disappointed than John Paxson that Roy Hibbert went back to school.)

10. Sacramento - Jeff Green. Artest is supposedly very excited about Reggie Theus and is now BFF's with Mike Bibby after a year of feuding, but I think the Kings should still move him. Maybe they could send him to the Lakers if Kobe is traded. Jerry Buss always wants to have a show in town and perhaps Ron Ron would buy him a year or two. Either way, the Kings need to turn the page. But with Bibby and Miller going nowhere because of albatross contracts, they can't go real young. That makes Green the ideal pick. He's ready to play now, will be a Webber/Divac type passer from the midpost, and really compliments Kevin Martin on the wing.

11. Atlanta - Acie Law. No-brainer. The Hawks could probably dangle Marvin Williams or Josh Childress and move up to #6 to get Conley, but why? Law is ready to lead a team starting yesterday and is just what this moribund franchise needs. Law, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, one of the Williams, and Horford ... that's a decent lineup! In Atlanta! This 3/11 combo is a godsend. When it comes to Law, Atlanta needs to ignore shuttle times and vertical leaps and confidently take the Next Cassell and then try to move someone from the Marvin Williams/Josh Childress/Sheldon Williams group for a veteran big.

12. Charlotte (from Philadelphia) - Nick Young. Still plenty of talent for the 'Cats to select from here at 12. Depending on what their plans are with Gerald Wallace, they could go for a small forward in Al Thorton, Julian Wright, or Thaddeus Young. That said, I think they need to FINALLY draft a shooting guard (enough with playing Ray Felton there).

13. New Orleans - Julian Wright. Young would actually be perfect here as well, but he's gone. Meanwhile, Wright is an absolute steal this late. He's basically a more athletic version of Andrei Kirilenko without the giant mood swings. And for those that would argue Wright plays the same position as Peja, I mean, come on. So there's overlap for all 19 of Peja's games next year, no biggie.

14. L.A. Clippers - Al Thornton. Not only is Thornton good value at 14 and a guy that can step in and play right away, but he also gives the Clippers the flexibility to finally move Corey Maggette. If Portland takes Oden, the Blazers might make a great trade partner, as they are said to be shopping Jarrett Jack. Jack would solve a lot of problems for the Clippers (since he's basically a talented version of Jason Hart, who did a nice job for them) and Maggette would step right in at the 3 in P-Town.

(With each pick, I'm more convinced Portland should take Oden. There are so many opportunities to fill that need at the 3. Maggette is out there, Lewis might be available in a sign-and-trade, and as we've seen, Nocioni is a possibility, and there are a ton of big time 3's in this draft if the Blazers can steal a pick in the 10-15 range. I'm not going to go back and redo the top of this draft, but I officially think they should take Oden and then use Jack, Randolph, and their four second round picks to land a small forward.)

Two bonus picks:

15. Detroit - Thaddeus Young. Everyone is saying Rodney Stuckey because he's the type of combo guard Dumars loves, but those people are forgetting that the Pistons already have that exact player under contract. Alex Acker is tearing up the EuroLeague with Olympiacos in Greece and could be brought back at any time. So I don't think the Pistons should reach for a guy just like that when they can snag the ridiculously talented Young. They might also want to consider Crittendon if they think Billups would really leave town.

16. Washington - Shaun Williams. No one knows where Williams will go and no one knows what the Wizards are going to do, so this seems like a perfect match. He's an immediate upgrade over Etan Thomas and could really transform the Wizards' interior D.

NBA Draft Preview

So, I know Adam's pretty busy moving in, so I'll get things started with just over 48 hours until the Draft. I think this year's draft is exciting, as always, but beyond the top two choices, there seems to be a lot of unsurety (is that a word) regarding who goes where, and who will develop. There are question marks, as always, but the trend seems to have moved away from jumping at raw Euros, and GMs seem to be looking more for college winners (it's about time) and some good raw athletes. Indeed, as you'll undoubtedly notice in my preview below, most of the top prospects share a common trait: they're all very athletic. It's a new, fast-paced NBA, and teams are looking for players that will fit into that model. So here are some of the top prospects, tossed into categories where I feel they're appropriate. I'm hoping to put up a couple more categories later today or tomorrow, so check back again soon.


Seven Impact Players for Next Year

Greg Oden-There’s not a whole lot I need to say about Oden that hasn’t been said already. He’s a beast defensively; he’ll provide good help-side defense, along with altering and blocking plenty of shots. He runs the court well, and with his (supposedly) healthy wrist, he can supplement his dunks with range out to about 15 feet. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll help right away. Blahblahblah, you’ve already heard all this. He’ll be an immediate presence on D and the boards.

Kevin Durant-Similar to Oden, pretty much everything’s been said on Durant. He can score in a number of different ways, and is offensive arsenal is quite impressive. He’s also an underrated rebounder, and is athletic enough to be a good defender. I expect he’ll average about 18 ppg this season.

Corey Brewer-I love this kid’s game. He put on a show in this year’s NCAA tournament. He’s extremely athletic and has long length (great fake term). He’ll be a lock-down defender, and his rangy arms will allow him to get plenty of steals. He also has decent ball-handling skills, and is a good shooter.

Jeff Green-I want to like his game more than I do. He does everything well, though nothing spectacular. He’s 6’10” but athletic enough to cover most small forwards. He’ll be a solid NBA player right away, but never a star. In my mind, kind of a slightly poorer man's Brewer, so I'm a bit surprised that recent mock drafts have him going ahead of Brewer. Could this be a "Joey Graham before Danny Granger" type of scenario?

Acie Law-Law may not be the most athletic point guard in the draft, but this guy is just plain a winner. Everyone who saw his incredible performance against Texas this past season was awed by his will to put his team on his back will it to victory (or at least another overtime). He gets to the hoop well, and knows how to run an offense. He’ll be a solid floor leader for a long time.

Al Horford and Joakim Noah-I tabbed both members of the Florida frontcourt together. Horford is definitely a better NBA prospect, because he combines a prototypical power forward body with athleticism. He’ll bang down low, can rebound, score in the post, and passes well. He’s not a star, but he’ll be a very good player for many years. As for Noah, his offensive game is much rawer than Horford’s, but he’s very athletic, and as we’ve all heard countless times, a great motor. He’ll never be able to put the ball on the floor or hit a jumper consistently, but he’ll get plenty of rebounds and hustle points, and provide defense and energy.


Five Future Impact Players

Brandan Wright-Wright is extremely athletic and has all the tools to be a potential star in the NBA. It seems like every year, there’s a player like this at or near the top of the draft (Rudy Gay, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, etc.). He runs the court well and has a good offensive game near the basket. If he can add some strength, and maintain focus (there are questions about his intensity), he has All-Star potential.

Yi Jianlian-As an athletic 7-foot foreigner, there are some that think he’s the next Dirk Nowitzki. Other comparisons have been to Toni Kukoc (though Yi is more athletic) and Tim Thomas (hopefully Yi cares more about defense). I haven’t seen enough of him against real competition to weigh in, but he certainly has the tools to be a good player. He can score from the outside, but needs to add strength to become a better interior player. However, he’s a hard worker, and with his athleticism, he can develop defensively. Regardless, it’s hard to tell how far along he is in his development, since he’s anywhere from 19 to 22 years old, depending on which version of his birth certificate you believe (I'm going with 22).

Mike Conley-He’s drawn comparisons to both Chris Paul and Deron Williams because of his pure point guard skills. Personally, I think a better comparison is to Isiah Thomas because of his ability to spend the majority of a game effortlessly distributing the ball to get his teammates good looks, and then take over and score down the stretch when his team needs him. Obviously, he’s not going to be the all-world point that Isiah was, but he’s a prototypical point guard who doesn’t turn the ball over and makes the players around him better, and he has potential to be an All-Star once he gets the NBA game down.

Julian Wright-I’m always partial to Chicago guys, but “the other Wright” has great athleticism (notice a trend here?) and an NBA body. He’s a great on-the-ball defender, is quick, and passes well. He plays with a lot of energy, and once he develops a better jumper, he’ll be a very good all-around player.

Nick Young-This guy actually already has all the tools (explosiveness, ability to run the court and get to the hoop, jumper, ballhandling skills) to be a good swingman soon. However, he lacks intensity and work ethic, and may need a year or two to learn that in the NBA, you can’t get by on pure ability alone.


Six Potential Sleepers

Alando Tucker-After getting “Player of the Year” consideration for the first half of this past college season, Tucker has really fallen off the radar. This is largely due to the fact that NBA scouts wonder what position he can play. However, Tucker is athletic, strong, and confident. He knows how to score, and while he’ll be a bit undersized at the 3, he’s just plain a good basketball player, and he’ll be a solid rotation player for whoever is smart enough to take him in the second round.

Jared Dudley-Similar to Tucker, Dudley was a top college player who has scouts worried about his status as a “tweener.” Also like Tucker, Dudley is strong and plays hard, and will be a decent role player in the NBA.

JamesOn Curry-Curry is great at getting to the hoop, can hit the NBA 3, and is a good passer. Unfortunately, he’s a bit skinny and small for an NBA 2. Nonetheless, he’ll be able to provide good scoring off the bench, and is athletic enough to be a halfway decent defender, if someone can motivate him to care.

Josh McRoberts-I know it sounds silly to put this former McDonald’s All-American and supposed top-five pick in the “sleeper” category, but his stock has dropped so much he may be in danger of falling out of the first round. Yes, we learned that McRoberts doesn’t yet have the ability to be a star player, and he certainly couldn’t carry Duke this past season, but he’s very athletic and agile for a big man, and quite skilled, too. He can score down low along with range out to about 18 feet, and is a good passer and rebounder. Somebody will get a steal in him late in the first round, as long as he can motivate himself to play.

Chris Richard-The forgotten man from the Florida frontcourt, I was impressed with what I saw from Richard in the tournament. While perhaps a bit undersized, he’s strong and tough, and he’ll be an able and willing bruiser in the league.

Curtis Sumpter-He was supposed to be a first-round talent, until torn ACLs made scouts question his ability to ever play pro ball. However, he’s battled back, made himself into a decent 3, and can still score and rebound. With his knees, he’s a risk, but somebody who takes a flier on him as a free-agent signee may end up with a huge steal.

Hiatus

I apologize for the extended absence, but was moving across the country and have had neither time nor Internet access. As it is, I'm typing this standing up, with "borrowed" broadband, while keeping one eye out the window for the moving truck. By Friday I should be rolling with some Draft coverage.

In the meantime, bullet point thoughts on the NBA (since I'm considering making this an NBA only blog - more on that later):

- Kobe Bryant is crazy.

- Are the playoffs over?

- I actually really liked the Mike James trade for the Rockets. Juwan Howard isn't any good and is the type of guy that always seems to demand 25 crappy minutes of PT. Now Houston can aggressively pursue a power forward with their exception (I suggested Mikki Moore about a month back) and they will be far more athletic next season. James was great in his first stint in Houston a few years back and is a perfect combo guard to add speed and playmaking to the Rockets backcourt. I know this trade was pretty minor, but I think it will wind up being a big deal.

- Interesting hire by the Kings. Reggie Theus never really impressed me with having a sharp basketball mind back when he would do Pepperdine games for Fox Sports West, but as we all know, being a good broadcaster and being a good coach are usually not related at all (see: Rivers, Doc).

I will be back with more later, but I need to post this before I lose my wireless signal.

See Below

My only comment after Game One of Cavs-Spurs is "see below." The Cavs need to play Gibson and keep Hughes on the bench. End of story. John Hollinger spent 1,500 words over on ESPN basically saying "let Boobie spin." It is too obvious to break down all over again.

So, see below.

Let Boobie Spin

I've received quite a few emails of the APB variety, wondering where I've been lately (okay, one email). I figure if the NBA can take a four-day vacation in June, so can I. Actually, that's not the real reason. The real reason is a combination of life events that are chewing up all available hours.

However, I did want to drop in on the eve of the NBA Finals long enough to post two things I got right. If you think it is lame to brag about topics of this manner, I can respect that, but I'm doing it anyway. I get so few things right that I'm going to take this opportunity to bask.

1. Cavs in the Finals. I picked them to win it all at the beginning of the regular season (note also that I tabbed Dirk as the MVP for the sole reason that the Mavs would win the most games - now that is kind of eerie), and then put them in the Finals in my playoff predictions. So I'm feeling good about that. Now if only I hadn't tabbed the Rockets to beat the Spurs in the WCF and then win it all ...

2. Daniel Gibson being sweet. In fairness, at one point I said he should be in the D-League, but for the most part, I've been singing his praises ... even if the main reason is that he's NOT Larry Hughes.

Speaking of Gibson, this whole "Boobie" nickname is uprorious. Apparently his mom gave him the nickname when he was a kid and would go home crying after getting beat up. (Although that still doesn't make much sense to me. Is a boobie someone who cries? Was she trying to say boo-boo, like he had a wound? I'm confused.) Regardless of HOW he got the name, it lends itself to some great comedy.

In fact, when I asked my brother where the nickname came from, he replied, "Maybe his teammates think he looks like Boobie Miles." I came back with a hopeful, "Really?" To which he replied, "I sure hope so."

That doesn't seem to be the case, but it didn't stop us from laughing for a very long time. Why? Because we've long used the line, "If you wanna win, let Boobie spin" as an intro for any cocky act of athleticism. Namely, during a scramble golf tournament during which we treated our teammates to a "If you wanna win, let Boobie spin" boast right before each shot.

Where does it come from? The answer is the movie Friday Night Lights, where the horribly injured star running back Boobie Miles begs to get back in the game by telling this very thing to his coach. He lays it out there: if you want to win, put me in the game.

Of course, Boobie does go in the game and then suffers a career-ending injury. So, admittedly, you have to kind of overlook the events in the movie to truly enjoy how funny the line can sound.

Or maybe it isn't funny and we are just insane. Totally possible. But it doesn't change the fact that this random movie quote has suddenly become appropriate for the NBA Finals. Because if the Cavs want to win, they need to let Boobie spin.

Gibson needs to attack the rim and get to the line. He needs to use his speed and confidence to square off with Tony Parker (Larry Hughes - even healthy - will be even more worthless against the Spurs, unless the Cavs go to a three-guard set and he somehow learns to play basketball). He needs to pump in threes. In short, he needs to be everything he was in Games Three through Six against Detroit.

If Boobie spins, the Cavs have a chance.

Screw it, I'm taking them. Cavs in Seven.

Epic LeBron

So, LeBron goes 48-9-7 tonight, scores the last 25 Cavs points (and 29 of final 30), and etches his name in the history books. It was a performance that demands gushing blog posts, hyperbole, and even a few Wooden-turned-Walton quotes (like "doing your best when your best is needed!").

Unfortunately, I was on a flight to Denver and missed the game, so will have to hold off on comments until I get back on Sunday and watch it on TiVo. Fortunately the very nice Marriott I am staying at has free Internet access, so I'm able to at least post about how I'm not going to post.

I can tell you what publicity hound is smarting right now though. Here's a hint: he has worn two different numbers the past two years and has a propensity to talk out of both sides of his mouth.

Who would have thought that something on the basketball court would rise above the Kobe and NBA Draft chatter?

Oh, and how are all the LeBron Bashers (numbering in the thousands just last week) doing right about now? Crickets.

(Last thing: I think the Suns just assured themselves a title in the Nash era today by inking Steve Kerr as their new GM. He will make the moves to get this done and it will keep D'Antoni from trading all of their draft picks to sign someone like Marcus Banks again.)

Kobe Talk

What a strange couple of days. Kobe has demanded a trade, posted something on his website disclaiming this, then went on the air and demanded a trade (telling Stephen A. Scream, err, Smith that there was no way out), then posted something on his website that was a lot like a goodbye letter, and then went on Dan Patrick's show and said that bringing in Jerry West would help a lot.

Strange stuff. And let me first say that I have no sympathy for Kobe, which I wrote about right after the Suns series.

That aside, there are a lot of things to consider. I am going to start with the most prominent question in my inbox which is "oh please tell me that Portland won't trade for him" and move through some other thoughts. As usual, this will come in the form of a list, that way I'm not held to any standards of coherence.

1. The Blazers won't trade for Kobe.

Is it weird that I'm starting off talking about the Blazers? Maybe, but Portland is the center of the action right now. They have the top pick, they have trade pieces, and they are setting up to be the Next Gen Spurs. And Blazers fans are terrified that the whole thing might be ruined by Kobe Bryant.

They need not fear. The Blazers aren't going to bring in someone disruptive to the culture of the team, they aren't going to bring in a guy who wants/needs to win now when the rest of the roster is on a different time line, and they aren't going to trade the #1 pick, which is probably what would be required (although they shouldn't trade Roy either). Meanwhile, as my buddy Josh Stump points out, the Lakers are just as unlikely to move Bryant within the division or the conference, so this seems to have 0% chance of happening. Rest easy, Portland.


2. Perhaps no one will trade for Kobe.

I got the sense even before the Patrick interview that despite what feels like the End of Days right now, this could blow over and Kobe will wind up staying in L.A. I'm not sure there is a good trade match out there and while he is burning bridges like crazy, I think he's just blowing off steam.

Also, I've got a crazy conspiracy theory that might explain why this is happening (and why there seem to be so many zigs and zags). What if Stern put Buss and Bryant up to this, WWE-style? Interest in the playoffs is flagging, the Draft lottery spurned the Celtics and left all the joy in the Northwest which doesn't help the NBA as much, and the weakest free agent class in recent memory is about to roll off the assembly line, complete with a rapidly depreciating Chauncey Billups at the top of the list. In fact, the ongoing NBA story this summer is set to be "Stern is screwing up his league" or some such angle that connects the dots of the the brutal officiating, the incessant flopping, and the atrocious Amare/Diaw suspensions. He knows he's blowing it by focusing all his energies on overseas expansion and marketing and that he's alienated the U.S. fan base. He may not care THAT much, but if there is a quick fix, he will go for it. This is the same guy that jump started NBA coverage last October by introducing a new, crappy ball for no reason at all. So what if he put the Lakers up to this? This will be THE story until it is resolved and since the media can always be blamed, all parties have an out should they "miraculously" find common ground. I know it is unlikely and that Bryant sounds legitimately angry and ready to burn as many bridges as possible, but I don't want to rule out the possibility that this whole thing is rigged to keep the attention on the NBA while deflecting from all of the league's ineptness. Think about it: all summer we can talk about this, wonder where he might be traded, and then - oh wow! - he's still a Laker and nobody spent months talking about much Stern sucks. (Note: I'm not suggesting that Stern wants Kobe traded, but that he wants this to be the story of the summer with a happy ending.)

3. Teams That Should Trade for Kobe

Utah - Many have already disagreed with this in email, IM, and cell phone conversation, but I believe the Jazz should dangle AK-47, some young guys (Brewer, Millsap), and a future first rounder and hope to get lucky. Williams, Bryant, and Boozer would probably win a title within the next three years. I know Kobe doesn't appear to be a Sloan guy, but both are competitive to the point of being alienating so I actually think it could work. Bryant in Salt Lake City doesn't strike me as a match made in heaven, but whatever. KG lives in Malibu five months out of the year, so team locale is overrated. And lets not paint the Jazz fans as holier than thou, considering they tried to brain Steve Javie the other night. I think they can live with an accused rapist.

New Jersey - The Nets should absolutely try to work out a sign-and-trade with Vince and tack on Kristic and a pick. They might pull off a miracle if the Lakers get desperate and go the "sell tickets" route and Kobe might be intrigued by the prospect of playing with Kidd and moving to Brooklyn.

(My man Stump adds: "True. Maybe the Lakers are that stupid/desperate and they bring out Vince and Kobe gets his wish to play with Kid and the two of them run around high fiving each other in excitement until they realize that none of the rest of the players on their team would start for UNC next year. NJ gets to move to Brooklyn with full houses every night to watch Jay Z playing grab ass with Kobe before the Nets get run out of the building game after game.")

Boston - The Celtics should offer Pierce and all of their overrated young players not named Al Jefferson and see if they can pull something off. I doubt it, but you never know. With Big Al and the #5 pick, Kobe might think he can lead Boston back to respectability in a weaker conference. He's probably wrong, but it would be fun to see him fail. Plus, going from the Lakers to the Celtics would be worse than Finley choosing to play in San Antonio or Johnny Damon going from the Sox to the Yanks. It would reveal him to be a mercenary of Roger Clemens proportions.

Phoenix - If Phoenix can get the Lakers to swallow Marion/Diaw/picks,
they have to do it. If that doesn't work, they can offer Marion/Barbosa/picks and probably get it done. This might be the best offer L.A. gets now that they have the proverbial gun to their head and a weak bargaining position. The Suns with Nash, Bell, Bryant, Amare, Diaw/Barbosa and Whoever would be pretty much unstoppable. Unless Kobe shoots them out of games or he fights to the death with Raja Bell, either of which is entirely possible.

4. Teams that should NOT try to get him.

Portland - Obviously.

Denver - The fans might revolt; plus, how exactly would Iverson and Kobe coexist? (Stump adds: This may send the wrong message to the fans. "If you can't convict 'em, join 'em" isn't much of a slogan for an NBA franchise.")

Washington - I'd take the younger and more likable Arenas any day.

Houston - I know Kobe is more durable and a better "closer" than T-Mac, but McGrady is finally understanding how to lead, how to win, and how to make people better. With a better coach for the Rockets in place and the possibility of some new blood, they have to let T-Mac keep growing with this team. To swap him out for Bryant would be a big mistake and the surest way to stunt Yao's progress forever.

Dallas - The Mavs need to add a small piece or two, not blow up the team. (Although I'm kind of changing my opinion on this.)

Chicago - The Bulls need to save their ammo for a lowpost scorer, which I've been pleading for all year. They need Gasol or KG or even Zach Randolph more than Kobe. Plus, can you imagine him in a Bulls uniform? As if he hasn't been trying to be Jordan hard enough already. I might
vomit.

Cavs Even Series

I'm sure many will disagree with this for a variety of reasons (including, but not limited to: beauty being in the eye of the beholder, the taint of it being a Leastern Conference game, and the general malaise that has stricken the NBA playoffs post-Suns), but this was actually a pretty entertaining game tonight. Not entertaining enough to write a cohesive column though, so here are 10 random thoughts:

1. Wilbon's Wrong, I'm Right. Sorry, can't resist. But not only did the Cavs NOT need Larry Hughes, I don't think they could have won the game had he played his usual minutes. People just aren't getting this (except for the guys at Yay Sports of course), but Hughes is AWFUL. He's been getting all the credit for Billups' struggles, but as I pointed out in a previous post, there are a lot of factors at work and they don't start or finish with anything specific to Larry Hughes. Without him in the game the Cavs had better shooting, better ballhandling, better help defense, and more basketball intelligence. I routinely crush Mike Brown here, but the Scarecrow (because he doesn't have a brain, but might be in the process of getting one) did the right thing by giving Hughes the final hook after that 8-0 burst to start the second half. That saved Cleveland.

2. Kenny Got His Wish. I promise this won't be all about big media types, but Kenny Smith hit the nail on the head after Game Three when he said that the next step for Daniel Gibson was to add penetration to this game. Gibson did just that, attacking the rim, getting to the line, and becoming more of a playmaker. Speaking of Gibson ...

3. Gibson Steps Up. It shouldn't be terribly surprising that Gibson is coming up big. He's a much better basketball player than Larry Hughes and is playing next to LeBron James, so with minutes will come numbers. Plus, he was once the #1 guy on Chad Ford's prospect board (before he had a rough junior year at Texas) so there is obvious talent here. Sure, he was a second round pick, but so was Gilbert Arenas. So was Monta Ellis. Plenty of talented guys go in the second round. He's a good player. I wish people would stop acting shocked that he's playing well like it is Rudy on the hardcourt.

(Speaking of, I love Marv Albert's surprise that Gibson went 12-for-12 from the line. While it was certainly a particularly good night for Gibson, you can't go off of his 72% mark for the season, because he was getting sporadic attempts. It is why you don't see a lot of pinch hitters slapping up a .360 in baseball. You need more looks to achieve a higher percentage. The best example of this was Lee Humphrey for Florida in the 2006 Tourney. Billy Packer couldn't begin to understand how a Sixty Two Percent Shooter! could knock down a bunch of free throws, completely ignoring the fact that Humphrey had only taken like 26 free throws all season. I guess the lesson is that small sample sizes are not to be trusted.)

4. Does Sheed Have a Gut? I'm sorry, but I'm watching Inside the NBA right now and they just showed Wallace whipping his jersey into some poor dude's face. Lost in the comedy was the fact that Sheed had a little gut hanging over his waistband. I have to admit, this shocks me.

(Along those lines, did you see Maxiell giving Billups a prolonged, sensual massage before the start of the third quarter? What was that all about? It looked like the rubdown that Xerxes gave to Leonidas in the middle of 300.)

5. Kerr Gets Excited. My favorite sequence of this game came when LeBron went behind-the-back to Donyell Marshall for a potential and-one. This play was followed by a great camera shot of Geraldo Rivera going bonkers in the stands. And to top it all off, Steve Kerr then said, "Geraldo loves it!" before cackling like an evil genius. Forget Geraldo, I loved it.

6. Scarecrow Stays with Gooden. Big moment for Mike Brown early in the fourth quarter. Drew Gooden had a Vintage Gooden series in which he fumbled a pass, tried to pivot like eight times, and then tossed up an airball hookshot. Frustrated by his poor play, he tried to chop Sheed's head off on the other end and picked up a tech. Pretty terrible work by Gooden, but not the end of the world either. All he did was give up an extra free throw. But normally, Brown would pull Gooden for that, acting like his power forward had just robbed a bank or something. Tonight Brown left him in and Gooden came through with multiple big shots and boards.

(Another live look-in on TNT's coverage. Sager is trying to grill Billups a little bit, but the only problem is that Chauncey looks completely unperturbed while Sager is beat red and sweating like Johnny Drama going to the Valley for the Aquaman premier. It reminds me of the scene in Seinfeld in which Newman is trying to investigate Jerry for mail fraud, but it is Newman dripping with sweat. "Pretty hot under these lights, eh Seinfeld? Pretty ... (gasping) hot!" And yes, I realize it took two TV show references to convey the point.)

7. Pavlovic Does Best Horry Impersonation. One of the key plays in the game came when the Pistons back-tapped a rebound on the offensive end, yet it was Pavlovic hauling in the long rebound and taking it the length of the court for a hoop. Question: what in the hell was he doing back there? His team is playing defense, battling for the board, and he's on the other side of halfcourt? How does that work? It was a lot like when Robert Horry made his famous shot against the Kings because he was standing 25 feet away from the basket watching his teammates scrap for the rebound. Kind of funny.

8. Gotta Love LeBron. There was once again a lot to get excited about in regard to LeBron's play. The "suck it" he gave to Hamilton on his last two free throws was big and the fadeaway late was insane, but once again, it was a simple pass that impressed me the most. And it didn't even lead to a made basket. At one point, the Cavs were up six, the crowd was surging, and LeBron was turning the corner into the lane. Nearly every other player (except for Steve Nash and Jason Kidd, probably) would have tried to finish at the rim to put a bow on the affair. But James saw a wide open Z and didn't hesitate for a minute, whipping him a perfect pass for an open shot. Big Z shanked the shot, but I just loved the thought process. It doesn't seem to matter if it is for a game-winning shot, a "pile on" moment, or whatever, LeBron is looking to make the right play every time. Passing is hardwired into his DNA and it is great to see. I just really, really hope that the impatient and hypocritical sports media will let this guy develop as he's meant to.

9. The Refs. I can't very well discuss the refs in every game and then fail to discuss them here. There was the usual smattering of missed and blown calls, but two plays stood out. The first was early in the fourth when James drove the lane, got the ball stuck on his hip, and was somehow bailed out when a foul was called on McDyess. Is there such thing as a makeup call two games after the fact? The other was that scrum at midcourt, where Gibson appeared to body check somebody and Eric Snow appeared to trip over a line, yet it was Snow going to the line for two free throws. The officials mostly stayed out of the way in this one, but those were a couple of suspect calls and they both really hurt Detroit.

10. Classic Sheed. As a Blazers fan, I know all the signs when Sheed is melting down and he put them all together in one rapid sequence late in the fourth. There was the headband toss, the T, the four straight borderline illegal picks, and then the horrific airball three ... all in 25 seconds of game time. Sheed is hilarious. The amazing part is that he didn't get thrown out.

The Bob Woodward of Flopping

You've got to check these columns out.

In this day and age, it is all about specialization. We see it in everything from law firms to foreign outsourcing, so why not in sports journalism/blogging? There is so much content out there that perhaps the best way to up the quality quotient is to search for specialization. Anyway, Dennis Hans isn't necessarily doing that (he writes on all things hoops as well as other, more sophisticated topics), but maybe he should. Because nobody is breaking down flopping in the NBA like Dennis. He's been analyzing block/charge calls and the way they have changed (and are going to get someone killed) for years and he's added another great piece over at HoopsHype.

Check it out:

Varejao is Blanche DuBois Defender of the Year

And to show he's not "bashing international hoopsters":

This is America's Fault

Larry Hughes Out

I have to take a moment and disagree with Michael Wilbon of PTI (who is great, by the way). Today on the air he said that he thought what was once a winnable series for Cleveland has been lost due to the fact that Larry Hughes is out of the lineup.

Now, before I ask my next question, I will note that the one thing Hughes does well is press up on Chauncey Billups from end to end. So if Billups breaks out and has a big game tonight (which is absolutely due for, regardless of who is guarding him), Wilbon and others might turn out to be "right."

But that said, has my man been watching the games? I know he's only on location for the Western Conference Finals, but I presume he's still tuning in to the Cavs-Pistons series. If he has, then he should be seeing what I'm seeing: Larry Hughes setting basketball back a couple of decades. I've crushed Hughes in this space and am honestly starting to feel bad about it, but his absence can only be a positive for Cleveland. Daniel Gibson is outplaying him (badly) and even Damon Jones is a better guy to have on the court if only because he can do Larry Hughes' job (stand on the wing and pop jumpers) better than Hughes can, plus he brings the added benefit of not trying to do too much. Hughes kills Cleveland because he thinks he's better than he is. This is the trait of all complimentary players that bring down franchises. The role players who simply suck and stay out of the way never actually lose games, but the sidekicks who think they have great skill wind up taking 20 shots or committing 8 turnovers because they keep doing things they shouldn't be doing and monopolizing the ball. (See: AJ Abrams of the University of Texas last year.)

Anyway. I expect the Pistons to play well tonight, actually, and win the game. But it will have nothing to do with Hughes being out of the lineup. If anything, the Cavs have a much better chance now. MUCH better.

(Update: Well, so much for that. Hughes is out there playing. And Steve Kerr is raving about Hughes' defense on Billups, which is just more reductionist analysis of the situation, as Gibson has been just as good on Chauncey. Billups' struggles are a little bit about pace (he's going faster than he would like), a little bit about strategy (hugging him the length of the floor), and A LOT about Billups just playing like dog crap. I am quite sure he would tell you the same thing. Mr. Big Shot needs to get it cranked up. After all, it is May AND time for a new contract.]

You Want Me To Write About This?

I've been getting a lot of email wondering why I didn't break down Game Three of Spurs-Jazz and since I want to cut those emails off at the pass after Game Four, let me just put it in simple terms: I like basketball, not Greco-Roman wrestling.

The Spurs-Jazz series might as well be played in the Octagon, because this is more mixed martial arts than hoops. Both teams are fouling the living hell out of each other on nearly every play. As Bill Walton has often vented, "Why even have a rulebook?"

Tonight was the worst I've ever seen as guys were getting knocked over like bowling pins with no calls. This went on for both teams until the fourth quarter when the officiating crew suddenly decided to start calling fouls on Utah. I know I have a rep for hating on the Spurs, but if someone wants to honestly tell me that the 25-2 fourth quarter free throw advantage was fair, please feel free to do so. As far as I could tell, it was a joke. Totally aribitrary, like flipping a switch. At BEST, it was guess work.

Anyway, here are the handful of thoughts I can muster: Deron Williams is a beast, Mehmet Okur needs a game face, Kirilenko threw about five passes that were so bad that they qualified as "Larry Hughes-esque," the first tech on Fisher was so bad it was actually hilarious, Manu Ginobili made some big plays, Fabricio Oberto (of all people) might have won the game for the Spurs, the Jazz have been reduced to a two-man team (do Utah fans still think I am "way off" for suggesting they trade AK-47 for Ray Allen?), Mike Breen needs to get off his high horse (it is sad when Mark Jackson has to check him a half-dozen times a game), and watching Manu and Fisher flail at each other is like seeing the Ali-Frazier bout for the sport of flopping.

Bring on the NBA Draft and - gulp - the Eastern Conference at this point. The Western Confernce Finals just suck. Bottom line. Sorry.

(And for the record, with or without Javie's hideous officiating crew, the Spurs would have won the game for the simple reason they didn't have Kirilenko winging the ball into the stands over and over.)

Oden or Durant: Depends on Rashard Lewis?

Despite the fact that LeBron is quitely breathing some life back into the NBA Playoffs and the U.S. Open is coming up in June, the "Oden or Durant?" question just became the most riveting sports angle for the next month. I've enjoyed reading all the comments weighing in on the subject, but there is an X Factor that is laregely being missed in all this and his name is Rashard Lewis.

Most accounts say that Lewis' feelings for Nate McMillan range somewhere between "upmost respect" and "huge man crush." If Seattle is going to get value for him in a sign-and-trade, it would most likely be with Portland. So it would seem that both the Sonics and Blazers have an incentive to get these pieces sorted out properly. Since it is Portland with the #1 pick, they have the upperhand, but I think Seattle will be willing to pay the price to get this ironed out. And to me, "ironed out" means that one team winds up with Oden/Lewis and the other with Randolph/Durant. The pairings of Oden/Randolph or Lewis/Durant don't make nearly as much sense, especially if the former is in Portland (where MY man crush LaMarcus Aldridge roams the paint) and the latter is in Seattle where Ray Allen is already hoisting oh so many threes. It would behoove both teams to sort this out and create the most ideal pairings.

So ...

If it is to be Oden and Lewis in Portland, that means the Blazers can engineer a sign-and-trade that nets them Lewis in exchange for Randolph. It gives Portland a pure center to pair with a pure power forward (I don't share the growing concern that Oden will get in LaMarcus' way or stunt his growth - he is far less likely to do so than Randolph and the best case scenario has these two emerging as a Next Gen Duncan/Robinson) and Roy and Lewis on the wings. For now, Jack can handle the point guard duties until Sergio is ready or they find somebody else or bring back Steve Blake or make a move for Conley or whatever. Meanwhile, the Sonics feel great about getting Durant, move him right in as a better, more versatile, and more tenacious version of Lewis (one of the great draft steals of all time, by the way), and then get something instead of nothing in the form of a premium lowpost scorer.

On the other hand, if it is going to be Durant and Randolph in Portland (and there are certainly strong cases to be made for that duo, along with Aldridge, Roy, etc.), that means Oden is going to Seattle and that the Sonics would be likely to pony up the cash to keep Lewis and certainly Rashard would be more likely to stay if he knew Oden would be roaming the paint. But if you are Portland, there is no need to simply take Durant #1 when you know how much Seattle would love to have Oden. Certainly, the Blazers can exact a handsome reward for simply swapping picks and getting the guy they really want. I'm not sure who Nate would want to reel back in from his old roster, but if it is Ridnour, Watson, Collison, Wilcox, or whoever, I'm sure Portland could have its choice, meaning they could keep Randolph for one more year (or shop him to a team like the Bulls or Mavs), take the guy they want in eventual Uber Star Durant, AND snag a few more assets in the process. Call it the Ridnour Tax for swapping picks.

I just find it so interesting that the two Northwest teams already have the McMillan connection, were already going to be talking trade in regard to Lewis and Randolph, and now have strangely interchangable picks atop an unbelievable draft. The I-5 corridor is about to get pretty busy. It is definitely advantage Pritchard and Portland, but whatever price Seattle has to pay, they are likely to do it because they will come out ahead as well.

Fascinating stuff, I think. And all the more reason why we can't really analyze who the top pick should be without considering the Lewis Factor.

Checking In: Baseball Picks

In the ongoing quest for accountability (totally lacking in today's world of sports media), I'm checking in on my baseball picks. Once the NBA Playoffs wrap, I will go over those picks as well (I'm guessing that won't go well, since I picked the Rockets to win it all).

---

American League

West - Anaheim
Central - Cleveland
East - Boston
WC - Minnesota

Comments: All the division winner picks are right so far, but it is Detroit and not Minny that is leading the WC chase. Still, I am feeling very good about this set of picks.

MVP: Grady Sizemore
Cy Young: Johan Santana
Rookie of the Year: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Breakout Star: Nick Markaksis
Bust: Gary Sheffield
Manager of the Year: Eric Wedge

Comments: This is not so good. Dice K is probably leading the ROY chase and I'm sure Wedge is looking good, but that is all I have going for me. Sizemore isn't playing poorly as he is over .400 in OBP and is fourth in MLB in steals (16-for-17) and fifth in runs (40) while also providing some pop (8 HR, 24 RBI) at the top of the order, but he is WAY behind Guerrero, Ordonez, A-Rod, and Big Papi. Not to mention some of his teammates. Santana has never been an early starter and I wish his 5-4 record was better, but he's not looking too shabby. His 3.09/1.06 ratios look good and with Beckett on the DL and Lackey's WHIP inflated, it leaves only Danny Haren positioned well in front of him. As for breakout and bust, I was way off. Sheff has been pretty mediocre (.247/.804) but there are guys going worse. Markaksis though has been brutal, while B.J. Upton is running away with the "breakout player" distinction.

National League

West - Los Angeles
Central - Chicago
East - New York
WC - Philadelphia

Comments: Not as good as the AL picks, but not bad, thanks to Philly's recent hot streak. The Dodgers and Mets are winning their divisions, but the Brewers and Padres have the other two spots. Luckily, Milwaukee is coming back to the pack and the Cubs are only five out (and Soriano has yet to heat up), while Philly is just three back in the WC chase. These could be better, but a week ago it was a lot worse when it looked like the Brew Crew and Bravos were going to be world beaters.

MVP: Jose Reyes
Cy Young: Cole Hamels
Rookie of the Year: Homer Bailey
Breakout Star: Rickie Weeks
Bust: Carlos Lee
Manager of the Year: Lou Pinella

Comments: Yikes. Reyes is right in the mix for MVP (even with his recent slump, he's still be my choice today) and Hamels has a shot (improved to 7-1 today, but is way behind Jake Peavy and others), but the others are pretty bad picks. Weeks is still mediocre and adding insult to injury is that either of two teammates - Prince Fielder and JJ Hardy - would have made GREAT picks. Lee has been quite solid for Houston. Pinella is going to need to do a whole lot of work. And Bailey has yet to make a big league appearance this year.

LeBron Critics (and Pistons), Thwarted

Everyone will have to take a day off from beating on LeBron, because you can't quibble with 32-9-9, highlight reel plays, leadership, and the game-winning shot.

Here are other thoughts from the Cavs' 88-82 win in Game Three (sorry about missing Game Three of the Western Conference Finals, but I'm having a hard time remembering that it is happening).

Scarecrow Gets a Brain

I'm not exactly taking back any previous comments about Mike Brown, but at least he figured out tonight that Larry Hughes + Big Minutes = Loss. Playing Hughes sparingly and opting for Daniel Gibson saved Cleveland today. It seems so painfully obvious that Gibson is the better player. He's faster, is a better shooter, plays far better defense, and has more stones. I've said this about a dozen times already, but Hughes looks like a gifted wide receiver that got called out of the stands to play hoops. He can run and jump and has nice hands, but no feel at all for the game. He made three of the worst passes I've ever seen today (an alley-oop attempt for LeBron that nearly broke the backboard, a bounce pass off Z's feet, and a backdoor pass to James that hit him in the ankles) and all three were the product of having no "feel." Plus he can't shoot, doesn't understand the pick-and-roll, never knows when to attack and when to pass, and isn't much of a ballhandler. Throw in the fact that he thinks he is good (and therefore does a whole lot of ill-advised stuff) and he just kills Cleveland. Meanwhile, Gibson isn't just replacement value, but is actually becoming a good player. So good for Mike Brown for finally getting it. Whether it was Hughes' foot injury, a demand from James, or Brown just making the realization on his own, this was a huge development.

Billups the Anti Jerome James

Chauncey made a few shots late, but otherwise had yet another horrific game. His timing is not good as he's about to become a big free agent. I mean, he got benched in the second quarter for Flip Murray. Wow. His price tag is going down faster than my boy Zach Braff's after The Ex opened to $1.4 million last weekend.

Kerr Commits Larceny

How did Doug Collins feel tonight when Kerr stole his favorite bit of analysis? In case you missed it, Kerr attributed LeBron's improved mid-range shooting to "getting an early dunk on the break" which can "make those jumpers come easier." Anyone who watches a lot of hoops on TNT knows this is Collins' jam. He loves to talk about shooters getting to the line and getting dunks to open up the jumper. When Kerr broke this down it was followed by dead silence. No doubt that was stunned, confused silence on Doug's part.

LeBron Goes Off

Duh. You don't need me to point this out. But he really was amazing. Hit some crazy jumpers, dunked on people, made all the right decisions, pushed the ball, attacked the glass, continued to play overlooked defense, and really lead his team. My favorite moment is after he made a ridiculous step-back three, sprinted to the bench on the ensuing Detroit timeout, headed over to get his high gives, and then suddenly turned away to meet Daniel Gibson. I have no idea what he said, but it looked like he was pumping the rookie up, telling him what a great defensive play he had made, and giving Gibson all kinds of confidence. Great stuff. Also, I love that even when LeBron is making shots, getting to the rim, and having his way, he still makes the pass when it is open. He will make the skip pace to a shooter, the no-look to a cutter, or even the simple pseudo handoff to a pick-and-pop target. He's not at all interested in stepping outside what he feels is the right play and I love him for that. When you have teammates this crappy and are still willing to be team-first, that is great for basketball. Someday he is going to have good teammates and we are going to see some magic. Or some Magic. Either way, lets praise this guy for building good habits instead of slipping into the trap that ensnared T-Mac early in his career and gets Kobe into trouble from time to time.

Flip Saunders ... Fire Your Barber

Why on earth is Flip rocking that curly mullet? Normally I would let him off the hook because it is hard to see the back of one's own head, but he can see this on film. What is he thinking?

LeBron Should Put the Onus on the Refs ... Oh Wait, Nevermind

Just got done watching another horrific Eastern Conference Finals matchup. I only have three thoughts, then it is back to mastering the world of private equity and venture capital (don't ask).

1. If you were one of the 432,000 people criticizing LeBron for not "putting the onus on the officials" in Game One, please step forward now. What, no one will admit it? That's what I figured. It's so great in this day and age. Say something on air and it is forgotten a few hours later. Post something on the Internet and it gets buried the next day. I heard so much garbage about how LeBron should have tried to finish that drive the other day - ignoring the fact that he had yet to earn a single trip to the foul line in that game - and now I promise that no one will admit they were saying that. Why? Because tonight LeBron "put the onus on the officials," got fouled twice by Rip Hamilton, and did not receive a call. Game over. I love Inside the NBA, but the ringleaders of the "put the onus" crew didn't say a single word about it tonight. Solid work, everyone.

2. Mike Brown might be the worst coach in the NBA. He inexplicably forced the ball to Z for the first five minutes of the third quarter, depsite the fact that Ilgauskus looked like Cosmo Kramer in the "Butter Shave" episode of Seinfeld. He couldn't have reeled in a pass if he was Spider Man. Yet there were the Cavs, isolating Z on the block and throwing it to him again and again and again. And poof, a 12-point lead was a one-point defecit. Great job. Not only that, but Brown's rotations were a mess, his decision to hold for the last shot in regulation was a disaster, and his insistence on featuring Larry Hughes AT ALL is puzzling, to say the least. Speaking of ...

3. I know I've hit on this a few times, but Larry Hughes is just awful. He sat for almost 12 minutes straight as Daniel Gibson completely outplayed him (even Damon Jones showed him up) and then managed to get Brown's attention, show him that blackmail material again, and get back on the court. Where he promptly turned it over three straight times, failed to make a single positive play in the final six minutes, and missed an open seven-footer to win the game. I'm not trying to pick on Hughes, because he seems like a nice enough guy, but I just don't think he knows how to play basketball. He's athletic and all, but his feel for the game is nonexistant. Gibson isn't even very good and he's only a rookie, but he is SO much better than Hughes.

(Sorry there aren't any comments on the Pistons, but what am I supposed to say? They scored one field goal in the final five minutes, had Billups and Sheed sleepwalk through the first three quarters, and only stayed in the game because Jason Maxiell isn't too cool for school out there. Forgive me for not being terribly impressed. This is one of those games where someone lost it, rather than someone winning it. So the focus is on the losing team. But that said, I can't wait for some Pistons-Spurs Part II in the Finals! Ugh. The movers are coming to take my TV on June 6 and you know what? Good riddance. What a total, absolute, unmitigated disaster these playoffs are turning out to be. Get ready for a lot more Draft chatter on this space.)

Celtic Salvage Operation

What do you do when a dream turns into a nightmare with the bounce of a ping-pong ball? Irrational or not, all of Boston thought they were getting a top two pick and riding off into the sunset. (In fact, it seems that to a man, Boston fans were somehow convinced that they would nab exactly the #2 pick and that it would be Kevin Durant; it was kind of weird how specific it all got.)

Now? They are sitting on a #5 pick that feels like purgatory. Not only is it a letdown, but it doesn't really match value with need in this case. Either Brandan Wright or Al Horford should be there at 5, but those guys play the same position as their best young player, Al Jefferson. Corey Brewer might be around, but plays the same position (pretty much) as Paul Pierce. Yi Jianlin is intriguing, but mainly because he's a mortal lock to be the worst All-Star starter in NBA history next season thanks to China's domination of the fan vote (credit my buddy Josh Stump for leading the way on that observation). Plus, even if he does wind up being good, he's a few years away. Doc Rivers and Danny Ainge absolutely will not be around to experience a "good Yi season," that is for sure. So what on earth should they do?

I will tell you: find the one team in the NBA that thinks the #5 pick is fabulous. This requires a few things. First, that team must have a certain perspective; one that never at any time thought Oden or Durant was a possible outcome. Second, that team must be desperate to move established players for cheap rookies, purely for luxury tax purposes. Third, that team must have a good player they are willing to trade, maybe even for slightly bizarre reasons.

In case you haven't figured it out by now, that team is the Phoenix Suns.

Think about it. Phoenix is obsessed with getting under the luxury tax. There have been reports all season that it is an either/or Armageddon situation with Marion and Amare. And they were making all kinds of plans regarding a potential pick in the 4-7 range, because that is where the Atlanta trade would have landed them. They are probably in love with a guy like Wright and are currently plotting how to get him. They are probably trolling for a way to trade Marion without inciting the entire fan base. The Celtics, in possession of the #5 pick, some young, cheap assets, and a big contract set to expire in 2008, can swoop in and give Phoenix the perfect out.

Here is one way the deal could go down:

Phoenix Gives Up: Shawn Marion, Marcus Banks, and the #29 pick

Boston Gives Up: the #5 pick, Theo Ratliff's expiring $12 million contract (in 2008), Delonte West, Kendrick Perkins, and their first round pick in 2008

[Update: I'm starting to think Boston could get this done without giving up the future first rounder. So feel free to consider it with or without the 2008 pick.]

I know this looks less-than-awesome for Phoenix on paper, but consider everything that it accomplishes. First, it alleviates this supposed logjam with Marion and Amare. If you believe the reports, these guys struggle to coexist, plus they both make a ton of money on a team that has an owner unwilling to pay the tax. Someone has to go, either this year or next. Maybe Phoenix can get a better player for Marion, but it is hard to see them gaining more depth, youth, and financial flexibility. The #5 pick could net them a very exciting young big man, as mentioned above. I happen to believe that Wright and Horford are going to be sweet NBA players and remember, those guys (or Yi or Noah or whoever) presented a very exciting "best case scenario" about 12 hours ago for Phoenix. The Suns also get their precious luxury tax relief 12 months from now. Their financial situation wouldn't change much next year, because in order to trade Marion under the cap rules, they have to bring pretty much equal salary back over. But Ratliff is coming off the books at the end of next season and would bring them well under the luxury tax threshold.

The Ratliff contract does even more than save Robert Sarver money though. It also allows Phoenix to draft a foreign player at #24 and then stash him overseas until the finances allow them to bring him back over. (By the way, let me pause here and say how much I hate the luxury tax. It penalizes a team for getting good players who eventually demand larger paychecks. I hate it with a passion that is a little frightening.) PLUS, it would make Phoenix a big-time player at the trade deadline next year. If Sarver had a change of heart next winter and decided a title would be worth the extra dollars, he could turn Ratliff's contract and his fistful of draft picks into a legit stud at the deadline.

Phoenix would also get some nice pieces back from Boston. Delonte West could spell Steve Nash, hit mid-range jumpers, and play tough defense off the bench, all for just over a million dollars a year. Kendrick Perkins could give them frontcourt depth and some Diop-like defense on Duncan, for the price tag of $4 million per (when his extension kicks in next year). Basically, they would be swapping the worthless Marcus Banks for the potentially valuable Perkins (as a sort of transaction tax on Boston). Plus, they would have Atlanta's and Boston's first round picks next year, which could conservatively project to a top-10 and a top-20.

The net result for Phoenix is that they would have Nash, Amare, Raja Bell, and Barbosa as the core of the team, with Boris Diaw, Kurt Thomas, Brandan Wright (or whoever they take at #5), Delonte West, and Kendrick Perkins rounding out the nine-man rotation. That is still a really great team, with far more depth, versatility, and roster flexibility. (Not to mention a team set up to receive an influx of up to four first rounders - their own, Boston's, Atlanta's, and the foreign guy at #24 this year - at a time whey they can finally dole out some paychecks.)

As for Boston, they would have to bring Marcus Banks back, but that is required to make the deal work. But the Celtics would gain a star in Marion that would help them win right now and allow them to roll out a pretty nice starting lineup of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Ryan Gomes, Shawn Marion, and Al Jefferson. You'd have to think that Pierce/Marion/Jefferson would be the best trio in the East. Plus, Boson would be trimming down the rotation, which is a must with Doc Rivers on the bench, AND they would still have the #29 and #32 picks with which to work in a very deep draft (how about Morris Almond and Sean Williams?).

This feels like a no-brainer for Boston and normally, they would never be able to pull off this kind of trade for an all-league type player. But it seems like Phoenix has a perfect storm situation that would actually make this a good deal for them, rather than the mediocre-to-crappy deal it would normally be.

If nothing else, Danny Ainge needs to get on the phone and give it a shot. Danny and Doc didn't get bailed out by the ping-pong balls, but maybe if they play their cards right, they can dig themselves out of this mess.

More Blazers

Three more thoughts on a night that Blazers fans may very well recall as one of the top two in franchise history (along with the 1977 title) when it is all said and done.

1. Boston Hates Portland. Could one team be any more bitter about another team right now? (Well, except for maybe the Suns and the Spurs.) Last year Portland swindled the Celtics by trading Bassy Telfair and a washed up Theo Ratliff for the #7 pick and a washed up Raef LaFrentz. It basically wound up being Telfair for Roy, which might turn out to be one of those trades that ends up on a "Top 10 Most Lopsided Trades" list someday. Now a year later the Blazers have snuck in and grabbed the top two pick that Celtics fans felt was rightfully theirs (although I'm not quite sure why). Those are a couple of beat downs, right there.

2. Stashing Some Good Luck. Nobody remembers this now, but Portland had the worst record last year and lost out on the top overall pick, sliding to #4. And they sure picked a good year to do it! The only guy who seemed to be a lock to be a good-to-great pro player was Roy and they got him with that acquired pick (via a trade with Minnesota). And the guy they nabbed at #4, LaMarcus Aldridge, has a decent shot to be the best player from the 2006 Draft. So I'd say it worked out pretty well. And a year later, they got the opposite result, nabbing the top pick in one of the most crucial drafts in recent memory. Really, they didn't get lucky this year, they got lucky that they were unlucky last year and now everything is balancing out. Or something like that.

3. Pritchard is the Man. Like most NBA fans, GM Bashing is a favorite hobby of mine. That said, there are a few guys that I love as general managers. Bryan Colangelo is obviously quite good. RC Buford has been great in San Antonio. Rod Thorn of the Nets is pretty solid. And I have a growing man crush on what Kevin O'Connor is doing in Utah. Kevin Pritchard definitely needs to be added to that list. By all accounts, he was the crafty wizard that orchestrated Portland's draft day domination last year, which - in light of the GM performances by John Nash and Bob Whitsitt before him - came as such a shock that the ESPN studio guys ripped the Blazers purely out of habit the night of the draft, before coming to their senses (or just being proven wrong, I'm not sure which). Not only that, but I read an interesting interview Pritchard gave to the Draft Express guys, and I loved the fact that he isn't trying to downplay this situation. The guy is embracing the moment and the challenge, and as a fan, that is all you can ask for. I'll leave you with this quote, which he offered when asked to put the pick in perspective:

Huge. Unbelievably huge. Franchise making. I don't know how to make it any bigger than that. That's pretty big, huh? Bigger than the Rose garden, bigger than our organization, bigger than the city of Portland. The whole state and the whole area revolve on the Portland trailblazers. As we go, so does the whole city so to speak. This has a chance to really change our organization and the city. Rip city again, here we come.

Lottery Madness!

I have to say, that lottery lived up to the hype. Even with some wooden personalities on hand, a butcher MC job by Mark Jones (including his interview with "Brenden Roy"), and a very short running time, the Draft Lottery special managed to pack a punch. This is because the events that transpired were INSANE.

Here are the highlights:

1. Blazers Get Top Pick. Duh. The Blazers have been doing an amazing job of revamping this team, they fleeced everyone last year, and now they have the top pick with which to work. The assumption is Oden, but Durant would be a perfect fit at the 3. Portland has Roy, Aldridge, and Randolph right now and slotting in Durant would make them an immediate threat to win the division. There has also been some talk that they might move the pick, but that is lunacy. Portland would be better off trading Zach Randolph to a team like Chicago or Dallas, in exchange for something of need or perhaps future picks. I suggested this in a previous post, but a Ben Gordon/Andres Nocioni for Zach Randolph trade would seemingly help both Chicago and Portland. The Blazers with Roy at the point, Gordon at the 2, Nocioni at the 3, Aldridge at the 4, and Oden at the 5 would be a ridiculous squad. Cap friendly, young, skilled, defensively sound (Gordon could guard point guards, Roy could guard 2's), and with great character and work ethic. No matter how you slice it, this was a magical night for the Blazers.

(And I really can't do it justice, but this has been building. The Roy/Aldridge draft last year dramatically altered the course of this franchise. They also saw Randolph come back from microfracture surgery and play well, experienced a great story in Ime Udoku, and then watched their young guys grow up down the stretch last year. Blazers fans were VERY excited for next season. And now this. Portland is back on the NBA scene in a big way and the excitement is palpable; I can feel it coming through my inbox. Plus, it works out nice for me that this is my hometown team. The only bit of bad news for Blazers fans is that any sort of sign-and-trade with Rashard Lewis is probably off the table now that the Sonics got the #2 pick, unless Portland can entice them with Randolph.)

[Update: just talked shop with some big Blazers fans and they all feel that the Sonics getting the #2 was actually great luck. Now Seattle can replace Lewis with Durant at the 3 and move Rashard in a sign and trade, maybe for Randolph. It seems plausible that Portland could roll into camp with Jack, Roy, Lewis, Aldridge, and Oden as their starting lineup. Wow.]

2. Suns Get Shut Out. Lost in the drama surrounding the top pick was Phoenix missing out on the most valuable #4 pick in years. The Suns needed the Hawks to stay out of the top three in order to get a shot at Al Horford or Corey Brewer. Now they have to be content with their pair of late first rounders. Safe to say it has been a tough week for Phoenix.

3. Hawks Roller Coaster. Wild night for Atlanta. They go in assuming they are going to lose their pick, then suddenly see Nique standing up in the top three. Going to commercial break, Hawks fans had to know that they had better odds than either Seattle or Portland and were no doubt thinking, "wait, we are going to get Oden or Durant!" Nope. Even when the Hawks win, they lose. (At least with the #3 and #11 they should be able to add Mike Conley Jr. and a big, or a big and Acie Law IV. So that is good news.)

4. Tankers Get No Love. Other than the Hawks, who clearly tanked down the stretch and yet still managed to sneak into the top three, the big tanking teams all got absolutely punished. The Bucks and Celtics were the most obvious of this group and found themselves in the 6 and 5 spots, respectively. I'm sure Boston fans are going ballistic tonight, considering the way they missed out on Duncan in 1997, but they sort of deserve it for openly rooting for their team to tank games. I admired Portland because they played hard to the very end, with Brandon Roy fighting through injuries to stay on the floor. As for Memphis, they did a more subtle form of tanking, but did it much earlier when they fired Fratello, put in Tony Barone, and basically ran pickup basketball the rest of the year. I don't feel bad at all for the teams that tanked to improve draft position, only to find themselves out of the top three.

5. Seattle Basketball Might Be Saved. What a moment for Seattle fans. Just when it looked like all hope would be lost, they landed a top 2 pick and might have a shot at salvaging this whole thing. The interesting thing is that Portland could probably do just as well to draft Durant, but Seattle desperately needs Oden. Adding KD to Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis is a bit of overkill, whereas Oden would anchor an offense-first team. I wonder if the two Northwest teams might talk trade over the next coupe of weeks. Portland could probably exact a significant payment from Seattle in order to swap picks.

2007-08 Rockets = 2003-04 Pistons?

I'm still kind of shocked that Jeff Van Gundy got fired. Am I alone on this?

The guy took a team with just a handful of good players, no team speed, no power forward, no health, and that played in a brutal conference and got them 50 wins. Yes, they lost in the playoffs, but the Jazz went out in the second round and proved they were no slouch.

I'm sorry, but that is a rough draw.

And the whole thing really reminds of when Joe Dumars and the Pistons gave Rick Carlisle the axe, despite the fact that he lead Detroit to the conference finals in 2003. Then, like now, it was a matter of preference more than performance. The Pistons saw Larry Brown available, thought he was the guy to make all their dreams come true, and then promptly won the NBA title. Of course, that was due in large part to the acquisition of Rasheed Wallace.

Van Gundy and Carlisle are actually pretty similar, with the exception of follicular endowment and previous coaching experience, given their "young genius" starts and defensive mindsets. But their commonalities aren't really the interesting thing here. I'm more interested in what will happen to the Rockets.

Is it possible that Houston could let a Coach of the Year candidate go and then vault to a title? To do so, they will need to bring in a playmaker on the perimeter and a more athletic power forward, but if the Pistons can serve as a proxy, merely changing coaches might help.

In fact, it is the guy Houston is changing to that gives me a weird sense of confidence. I say "weird" because Rick Adelman has never struck me as a real "get us over the top" kind of coach. But nobody really saw Larry Brown as that kind of guy either. Remember, that was Brown's first (and only) title. Like Brown, Adelman was a tough-minded guard as a player, always seems to improve the teams he coaches, and employs a system that he has confidence in.

More than anything, Adelman gives Houston a new look. It seems ownership wanted him so that he would speed up the pace, but it also seems possible that he can discover new tricks for old dogs. For some reason, I have a good feeling about this.

It probably wasn't fair to Van Gundy (actually I know it wasn't fair to Van Gundy), just like it wasn't fair to Carlisle when the Pistons ran him off, but considering how well this worked for Detroit four years ago, the Rockets almost had to make this move.

Now all Houston needs to do is acquire a star power forward at the trade deadline next season.