The Playoffs Are Here

Every year, for as long as I've been banging out columns and blogs on the Interwebs, I've posted my NBA playoff picks. Prognostication, it turns out, has not been my strong suit. Let's run down the messy list:

2002 - Kings over Pacers (Actual: Lakers over Nets)
2003 - Mavericks over 76ers (Actual: Spurs over Nets)
2004 - Kings over Pacers (Actual: Pistons over Lakers)
2005 - Heat over Suns (Actual: Spurs over Pistons)
2006 - Pistons over Mavs (Actual: Heat over Mavs)
2007 - Rockets over Cavs (Actual: Spurs over Cavs)

If you are keeping track, that makes me 0-6 since I started writing these things down. Even worse, I've only correctly picked two of the 12 teams that have even reached the Finals, let alone won it. At least the Mavs and Cavs were in the last two years - maybe I'm warming up.

Normally, this kind of track record would make me think twice before posting any future picks. However, this is not a normal situation. You see, I am in possession of a complex secret formula that helped me win my NCAA office pools and identify Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, Davidson, and UCLA as the best teams in the tournament (in that order). Try arguing with those results.

So this year I am going with my formula and the list it spits out. Of course, because I like to indulge the worst elements of my nature, I am still going to add some "gut feeling" to the write-up part of things. In effect, I am going to argue for and against my own system.

Here is my Power 16, in reverse order:

16. Cleveland. The Cavs project as the worst team in the field, although Washington and Atlanta certainly give them a run for their money. I expect this fact to result in a "thrilling" series with the Wizards.

I Concur - Cleveland is a putrid team. The midseason trade to bring Ben Wallace's exoskeleton to town is the new Mistake by the Lake. A few key guys haven't been able to stay healthy. No one other than LeBron is all that good at basketball. The bottom line is that this is not the same team that went to the Finals a year ago, nor is this the same horrible Eastern Conference. Lost in the excitement of the Wild West is that the Leastern Conference has turned into the Big Three with a trio of very formidable squads sitting atop total squalor.

I Disagree - Any team with LeBron has to be better than this, right?


15. Washington. The Wizards are probably better than the matrix projects because they are now healthier than they've been all year. It's okay though, because the matrix still has them getting past Cleveland and then losing to Boston, so I wouldn't change anything.

I Concur - They are still trying to work in Gilbert off the bench, so there could be some alpha male issues down the stretch. Not to intentionally agree with Charles Barkley, but they've also been running their mouths a bit too much. So despite their talent, the availability of three elite scorers, and an improved defense, the sum might not be as good as the individual parts.

I Disagree - This is probably more like the fourth best team in the East, not the seventh. But who's counting?


14. Atlanta. The Hawks better prepare for another round of "they should reseed the whole league for the playoffs!" stories.

I Concur - I think a coaching change is in order in The A, because they have too many pieces to settle for below-.500 results.

I Disagree - If anything, I don't agree that they are better than anyone in the playoffs.


13. Philadelphia. A few weeks ago the Sixers were soaring and looked like they might get the fifth seed and a date with Cleveland. Unfortunately, they did not.

I Concur - They are better than these other weak sisters, but still light years behind Detroit, their first round opponent. They can be dangerous in bursts because of their attacking defense, but even Flip Saunders can adjust for that in a seven-game series.

I Disagree - I think Philly is better than Toronto but no one else that is ahead of them. (Note: not only am I quite happy with the results so far, but the matrix spit out the bottom five teams in the East as the bottom five teams in the entire playoffs. No surprise there - all the power is concentrated at the top.)


12. Toronto. The Raptors are a mess. They are starting the wrong point guard, they don't have a small forward, their coach is kind of brainless, and Rasho Nesterovic is suddenly their second best scoring option.

I Concur - They have some playoff experience from a year ago, Chris Bosh is terrific, and Jose Calderon can take over in "winning time," but Toronto is an otherwise rudderless ship. As I mentioned in a previous post, I think this is going to be a brief T.J. Ford Showcase and little else.

I Disagree - They should probably be behind the Sixers. And the Wizards.


11. San Antonio. Pretty low, huh?

I Concur - The Spurs are older, they have dealt with more injuries, and the West is loaded with far more challengers than a year ago. They seem to be at least one player away from a title and they got a tough draw in the first round by landing Phoenix, who is both a superior team and currently constructed just for this occasion.

I Disagree - San Antonio is both the ultimate Vampire Team and the squad most likely to get the benefit of the whistles (due to my "systematic desensitization" theory that I will likely be posting in the coming days, either here or over at HoopsAddict). They feature great ball movement. They are getting Brent Barry back in the nick of time. Plus, did I mention they are like vampires?


10. Houston. Houston is likely going to get the pity vote this year because they lost Yao. They should get the pity vote because they drew Utah in the first round.

I Concur - Houston probably isn't actually better than San Antonio, but otherwise, this seems like the right spot for them. They can play some ridiculous defense and spread the floor, but don't have the lowpost scoring or deep shooting to beat the elite teams in the West. And the Rafer Alston injury just kills them.

I Disagree - This one looks about right as well. Nothing about Houston screams "No, no, they are totally going to beat Utah!"


9. Denver. The Nuggets barely got in, but project as a dangerous playoff team. Had they avoided one of two bad losses late (to Seattle and to Sacramento), they could have snagged the seventh seed and had a very realistic shot of knocking off both New Orleans and the Phoenix/San Antonio winner.

I Concur - Denver creates enough havoc on the defensive end and plays fast enough that they are actually effective at forcing turnovers and misses. Their poor defense is a bit of a myth. Plus, Allen Iverson is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career, Marcus Camby is actually playing better defense this year than last season (when he won the defensive player of the year award), Kenyon Martin and Eduardo Najera are providing solid minutes at the 4, and J.R. Smith is becoming a force of nature from deep off the bench. This team is better than the squad that played the Spurs oh-so-close last year in the first round.

I Disagree - Carmelo Anthony lacks focus now more than ever (and not just the DUI, but also his increasing dependence on bad jumpers), George Karl is half checked out, and Anthony Carter still plays big minutes at point guard. Read that last part again.


8. New Orleans. A month ago I was ready to take the Hornets to the Finals. The matrix advises a different course of action.

I Concur - The lack of playoff experience is overrated. The "weak bench" is overstated (especially now that they have Bonzi Wells and can get quality minutes from Julian Wright). The home crowd disadvantage is patently untrue. Plus, they have the rightful MVP and most unstoppable point guard in the game in Chris Paul and one of the more reliable post scorers in David West.

I Disagree - The Hornets have some issues. Tyson Chandler has really blossomed but if he gets in foul trouble, I don't see how New Orleans can win that particular game. This is because Hilton Armstrong might be the worst rotation player in the postseason. He's truly terrible. Plus, they are over reliant on the pick-and-roll, making them much easier to gameplan for in a long series. I could see New Orleans jumping out 2-0 on Dallas and looking fantastic in the process and then losing four of five.


7. Dallas. They will be in a dogfight with New Orleans and they have a ton of baggage hanging around their necks. Avery might be coaching for his job. Jason Kidd is trying to fend off the Ghost of Devin Harris Future and figure out what in the hell happened to that glowing rep he was strutting around with for Team USA last summer. Dirk is hell bent on redemption (not a bad thing).

I Concur - Dallas is a real snake in the grass. Could they be the best seventh seed of all time? They are adequate defensively and have a great weapon to throw at David West in Brandon Bass. They are hungry. They have Dirk. And, most of all, their actual strength is far greater than their perceived strength thanks to a flurry of close and/or fluke losses suffered against good teams right after the Kidd trade.

I Disagree - They are going to miss Diop in the paint. They have no one to guard Paul and will have to resort to defense-stretching gimmicks to slow him down. Avery gets to cute for his own good when left to gameplan for a seven-game series. They have more pressure to win than any team other than Phoenix.


6. Phoenix. The Suns went from a mirage-like best in the west to talk of the town to dead in the water to suddenly potent, all in the span of like two months. Wild year in the Valley of the Sun.

I Concur - Phoenix certainly seems good enough to compete for a title and to warrant this spot. They have one of the three best scoring weapons in the game in Amare Stoudemire, leadership from Shaq and Nash, weapons off the bench, and underrated defensive flexibility thanks to Bell's toughness and Grant Hill's smarts.

I Disagree - The Suns just can't get a call or a fair shake when they need it most. See: Spurs, San Antonio and Stern, David. Why should things change now?


5. Detroit. The Pistons are once again rolling into the playoffs with a healthy starting unit and a solid bench that Flip Saunders may or may not choose to acknowledge.

I Concur - Detroit is tested, rested, and ready. No one wants to see this team right now.

I Disagree - I actually thought they would land higher and my gut is telling me that Orlando has no chance of beating them. That said, there are reasons to doubt the Pistons. They still haven't shown they can elevate in the postseason under Flip. The bench is untested (and, as mentioned above, may very well wind up largely unused). Rip doesn't look like Rip. McDyess is going to get eaten alive by Dwight Howard. So maybe they aren't a mortal lock to reach their sixth straight Eastern Conference Finals.


4. Los Angeles. The Lakers are loaded now, loaded for the future, in possession of one of the top five players in the game (and a guy made even better by the fact that 95% of the league's players are scared of him), and coached by possibly the greatest coaching mind in NBA history. Safe to say they are going to be a "tough out" for a few years. That said, they suffered a huge blow when the Jazz tanked at San Antonio Wednesday night, because now they have to play the second-best team in the entire NBA in the Western Conference semis.

I Concur - L.A. has a deep bench, a skilled low post scorer in Gasol, the world's greatest fouler (Derek Fisher) to put on Allen Iverson and other top guards, and, of course, Kobe Bryant.

I Disagree - Their interior defense is soft and their shot selection is putrid. If you ask me, these are fatal flaws unless suddenly and dramatically rectified.


3. Orlando. Never saw this one coming.

I Concur - It is hard to concur with them being the third best team in the entire league and/or ranking ahead of Detroit. That said, they have a built-in advantage on the boards because of Dwight Howard. They suddenly have a closer in Hedo Turkoglu. They can spread the floor and drain threes, which is almost an NCAA tourney-like equalizer. And they have a very competent coach. Oh, and one other thing. They've don't get tripped up by the Barbosa Factor. The Barbosa Factor refers to last year's playoffs, when the Phoenix Suns suffered mightily from the fact that Leandro Barbosa (and Boris Diaw) had never played substantial minutes against the Spurs in a playoff series. The Suns missed San Antonio in 2006 and Barbosa barely played in 2005, so last year's clash was his first. It showed. The NBA, perhaps more than any other professional sport, has a "trial by fire" quality to its playoff system. And while the general concept of "playoff experience" is overrated, there is nothing overrated about going up against the biggest, baddest bully on the block and learning from the experience. The Magic faced Detroit (the bully on their side of the bracket and, really, the biggest bully in the East) last year and actually played them pretty competitively in the first round of the playoffs. Plus, the immortal Keyon Dooling had a chance to get Chauncey Billups and the rest of the Pistons out of his system back in 2005, when he pretty much single-handedly lost the Eastern Conference Finals for the Miami Heat. Now, Dooling is (shockingly) Orlando's best backcourt defender and he should be up to the challenge of defending Billups. Crazy world.

I Disagree - Their point guard play is terrible, Howard doesn't always assert himself, and they are way too reliant on the long ball.


2. Utah. The secret is sort of out already, but Utah looms large in the West.

I Concur - They have an awesome inside-outside combo with Boozer and Williams. Okur is rounding into shape at the right time. Brewer is sneaky good. Korver spreads the floor and hits killer free throws. They have some great role players. And their home court advantage (both the crowd and the officiating) is enormous. In fact, while much has been made of Utah's home/road splits in a negative light, I don't think enough has been made of the positive implications that has for their chances. Think about it. They were 37-4 at home, which is a winning percentage of over 90%. On the road they were 17-24, for a winning percentage of just over 41%. Not to state the obvious, but 90 is a lot closer to 100 than 41 is to zero. In other words, isn't it far more likely that Utah will win all of its home games in a given series than it is that they will lose all of their road games? Which scenario would you rather bank on?

- A team with a 41% chance of winning road games going 0-4 on the road
- A team with a 90% chance of winning home games going 2-1 at home
- A team with a 90% chance of winning home games going 3-0 at home and with a 41% chance of winning road games going at least 1-3 on the road

Me, I'm taking the third option because it hews closest to the established percentages. Going 100% at home (+10%) and 25% or 50% on the road (-16%/+9%) seems more in keeping than going 67% at home (-23%) or 0% on th road (-41%). Sorry to throw all those numbers at you, but sometimes you have to swap in math for common sense.

I Disagree - Utah isn't all that good defensively and they have a walking landmine in Kirilenko and his fragile ego. But those are the only real chinks in the armor.


1. Boston. They have been the best team all season, so this comes as no surprise.

I Concur - They have the best leader in the game, the best defense, the best assistant coach, veteran players, and a really solid bench. They have home court advantage throughout the playoffs.

I Disagree - They could have problems with the Barbosa Factor if they play Detroit and they have stars with some mental hurdles to clear. Those psychological elements, coupled with Rondo's youth (and Cassell's age), give me pause. But not enough pause to disagree with my baby.


So there you have it. The interesting thing about this list is that the playoff pairings produce some really close matchups according to this ranking system. Cleveland and Washington square off in a battle of the bottom. New Orleans and Dallas are almost too close to call. Detroit-Orlando and Utah-Los Angeles loom as massive second round collisions. Using the disparity in the rankings (and in the secret, underlying data) to aid in predicting how close each series will be, here are my projected results:

Western Conference
First Round
(1)[4] Los Angeles over (8)[9] Denver in 6
(4)[2] Utah over (5)[10] Houston in 5
(7)[7] Dallas over (2)[8] New Orleans in 7
(6)[6] Phoenix over (3)[11] San Antonio in 5
Semis
(4)[2] Utah over (1)[4] Los Angeles in 6
(6)[6] Phoenix over (7)[7] Dallas in 7
Conference Finals
(4)[2] Utah over (6)[6] Phoenix in 6

Eastern Conference
First Round
(1)[1] Boston over (8)[14] Atlanta in 4
(5)[15] Washington over (4)[16] Cleveland in 7
(2)[5] Detroit over (7)[13] Philadelphia in 5
(3)[3] Orlando over (6)[12] Toronto in 5
Semis
(1)[1] Boston over (5)[15] Washington in 4
(3)[3] Orlando over (2)[5] Detroit in 7
Conference Finals
(1)[1] Boston over (3)[3] Orlando in 7

NBA Finals
(1)[1] Boston over (4)[2] Utah in 7