Friday, October 27, 2006

Fantasy Hoops: How Good is Michael Redd?

I recently got into a debate with a fellow fantasy hoops junky about the value of Michael Redd. We were on complete opposite sides of the fence regarding where he should be drafted (he thinks late third round, I felt middle of the second), and our argument seemed to reflect a general polarization on the topic. People typically either love Redd or feel he is grossly overrated.

You can find Redd safely stashed somewhere in the late 20's on most cheat sheets, but when you get into drafts or read positional rankings, you can see that people are all over the map.

I used to view him as overrated, but now think the opposite. A couple of years ago he was getting some buzz and going pretty high in drafts. His numbers for 2004-05 were fine, but didn't continue the upward trajectory from the previous years. He got the rap of being a one-dimensional player that only scores. However last year he improved almost across the board, and should be even better this year, yet the rep stays with him.

I simply don't think this is true. Check out Redd's 2005-06 numbers as they compare to those of consensus first-rounder Ray Allen:

Redd: 25.4 ppg 4.3 rpg 2.9 apg 2.0 3pg 1.2 spg 0.1 bpg .877 FT .454 FG 2.4 TO
Allen: 25.1 ppg 4.3 rpg 3.7 apg 3.5 3pg 1.3 spg 0.2 bpg .903 FT .450 FG 2.1 TO

Allen has a hefty edge in threes, which certainly accounts for much of his increased value. But other than that, Redd is virtually identical. Allen's superior free throw percentage is offset by the fact that Redd shoots far more of them (4.6 attempts per game for Allen against 7.1 per for Redd), which makes a bigger contribution to a team's overall percentage.

I'm not saying I'd rather have Michael Redd than Ray Allen. Obviously, Allen's threes make him worth it. But Redd is younger and virtually just as good, yet usually he goes at least a full round later, sometimes two rounds later. Seems to me he's one of the best values in the game.


Jeff Dritz said...

I'm with you on the value of Redd. You argue that Redd is a mid-2nd round pick, and take issue with the possibility that he may be a late-3rd rounder. However, I did take him late in the 3rd this past weekend, after you passed on him. He's just good value.

Adam Hoff said...

Good point, but I didn't want to pass on T-Mac, plus I have Redd on like four teams already and wanted to mix it up.