Pass Durant the Ball!

I've seen Texas play at least 10 times this year and about fives times in the past two weeks. And the same problem keeps coming up in each and every game: Texas doesn't pass the ball to the best freshman I've ever seen. It's absurd, it's ridiculous, it's the college hoops equivalent to Nixon wiretapping a presidential opponent that he was beating by 40 points in the polls.

I know Durant still winds up taking a ton of shots, but when you watch the game, you can't help but be struck by how dumb this team is. They run almost no plays for the best player in the country. They let A.J. Abrams bomb away with impunity. They allow D.J. Augustin to dribble for 25 seconds at a time and then heave fadeaways. I'm telling you, this is Crazy Town. And all of this ignorning takes a massive toll on Durant, who always seems to look worse as the game goes on. In fact, while I don't have the stats to back this up, I would say that his stats during the first 10 minutes of the second half are by far his worst splits. Because this is the time of the game where all the other greedy bastards in burnt orange start jacking up shots. So when Durant finally gets a touch, he is getting frustrated and he can almost feel the expectations of the entire crowd pressing down on him. He knows he must score and be aggressive for his team to win, so after he runs up and down the court seven straight times without a look (while blocking shots and rebounding like a madman all the while), he is getting pretty antsy. That is when he tries to do too much and throws up those hideous airballs or falls down like a colt that can't run quite yet.

If Texas would just run a freaking offense and make sure to get Durant a touch, he wouldn't feel that way. The offense would run through him and he could concentrate on making reads and taking what is there. The Longhorns could isolate him on the block and work off the double-teams that are sure to come. They could get him in the high post ala Dirk Nowitzki. They could even just hand him the ball and get out of the way, which is pretty much the Cavs' whole offense when the fourth quarter rolls around. There are a million ways to get him the ball and keep him from pressing and feeling pressure to do something magical every time he touches it.

The whole thing is such a shame, becuase Rick Barnes is wasting the greatest talent some of us have ever seen in the college game. He's allowing this incredible player to get worn down, frustrated, and exploited during virtually every game he plays. It is downright tragic. And I promise you that this is going to end badly. There is no way that the team I saw blow a 32-10 lead to Kansas today can beat North Carolina. And frankly, I'm not even sure they can get that far.

Maybe in some weird act of Texas state pride, the Mavericks can lone Avery Johnson to the Horns for the next three weeks. It's not like Dallas needs him - it doesn't seem that they can be defeated even if they started up a "coach the team for the day" fan contest.

Beware of the Ducks

Ever since Syracuse pulled off arguably the most improbable title run of the past 20 years (only Arizona in 1997 was more surprising to me) in 2003, I've been on the lookout for teams that fit the Cuse mold. The next year I saw Georgia Tech look a lot like Syracuse when they got off to a fast start, struggled in the middle of the conference season, closed strong, and landed a #3 seed. I decided to pick them to reach the Final Four and they wound up doing me one better and going to the title game before losing to the UConn juggernaut. 2005 lacked an appropriate team (Arizona was the closest as a #3 seed, but didn't have the required ebb and flow), but last year I was all over the Gators when they started fast and finished strong and landed a #3 seed. While many were picking Florida to flame out in round two, I had them going deep. As we all know, they won the whole thing.

Needless to say, I've spent the whole year keeping close tabs on teams that might join this list of #3 seeds. Arizona, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Alabama, and Oregon all got off to the kinds of starts and had the sort of midseason struggles that would fit the pattern, but I had to wait and see which team closed strong. Obviously, that question has been answered (decisively). Now the Ducks are looking like a very dangerous team in this tournament. Like the previous three Cuse Teams (Syracuse was first, so they get to be the namesake), Oregon got off to a hot start, faded, and then rallied. They also have an established star as well as a rising star. And they are a matchup nightmare, in this case because of their four-guard lineup and ridiculous team speed. All their key players can handle the ball, shoot, run the floor, and play the sort of attacking defense that masks some of their size issues. If the Ducks had a few more able bodies coming off the bench, I might pick them to win it all. Seriously. As it stands, I feel like they are going to reach the Elite Eight and if they weren't headed for a showdown with Florida (the worst possible matchup for them), I'd take them even further.

(By the way, as much as I love Tajuan "The Next Earl Boykins" Porter and was awed by Bryce Taylor's 11-for-11 performance in the Pac-10 title game, my favorite Duck is Aaron Brooks. He is fast, skilled, gutsy - everything you want from a senior point guard. It is a travesty the way he has been ignored by various postseason awards. He should absolutely be a first-team All-American over Arron Afflalo of UCLA. Watch them play - it isn't even close.)

Anyway, if history is any sort of guide, Oregon is a team to watch. Check out the similarities (finishing records obviously do not include the NCAA Tournament):

2003 - Syracuse
11-1 start in non-conference
Rough 5-3 stretch (looked worse than the numbers) in middle of Big East season
8-1 to finish (lost in Big East semis)
#3 seed
(Extreme) Rising star - Carmelo Anthony
Established star- Hakim Warrick
X-Factor - Gerry McNamara's threes
Preparation Nightmare - the 2-3 zone
Result - National Title

2004 - Georgia Tech
12-0 start
7-8 stretch in ACC play
4-1 to finish (including reaching ACC title game)
#3 seed
Rising star - Luke Shenscher (sort of)
Established Star - Jarret Jack
X-Factor - Will Bynum being a matchup nightmare and posting big scoring totals
Preparation Nightmare - The high post offense with Shenscher
Result - National Title Game Appearance

2006 - Florida
17-0 start
5-6 stretch in SEC play
5-0 finish (including SEC title)
#3 seed
Rising star - Joakim Noah
Established star - Corey Brewer (had a big freshman season)
X-Factor - Shooting of Lee Humphrey and Taurean Green
Preparation Nightmare - Big guys leading the fast break, matchup zone
Result - National Title

2007 - Oregon
18-1 start
3-6 stretch in Pac-10 play
6-0 finish (including Pac-10 title)
Rising star - Tajuan Porter
Established star - Aaron Brooks
X-Factor - Mismatches created by Bryce Taylor and Malik Hairston at the "forward" positions
Preparation Nightmare - The small ball lineup that creates matchup problems all over the court
Result - ?

Another Round of “Championship Blueprint”

Get ready for a blitz of columns. March Madness is just a few days away and the old laptop is about to get a workout. There will be picks, analysis, guest Insiders, commentary, rants (most of them aimed at the selection committee), raves, recaps, and plenty of opinion. Yes indeed, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. And to be honest, March Madness is really the last sporting event left that I can still muster up the energy to write a lot about. Every other aspect of sports is oversaturated with opinion and drama and hype, and the joy has been sucked right out of it. But with the NCAA Tournament, there is a purity to the action and things move so fast that it is impossible for the media to outshine the games themselves. And I love that.

Anyway. To get things started, we will revisit a successful column idea from last year (successful in that it didn’t produce much hate mail) in which we use past champions to find a blueprint for success, and then identify the best match in this year’s field. The trick worked pretty well for the 2006 tourney as Florida – the team that fit the 2003 Syracuse mold – went on to win it all. Not many people believed in the Gators last year, but the system saw through all the hyperbole and expert opinions and locked on to Florida as one of the top threats to win the title. So we’re doing it again. The one thing missing last year was a way to sort the best matches from the shaky comparisons, so this time around we are using a Match Score to see which teams most strongly resemble old title winners. And we are doing it before the pairings are announced, so as to avoid being swayed by matchups or anything like that. Off we go.

Year: 2000
Champion: Michigan State
Winning Traits: Leadership, Coaching, Experience, Defense, Perimeter Stars, Point Guard Play

The Spartans of 2000 were led by a trio of perimeter players from Flint, Michigan that featured fiery point guard Mateen Cleaves (who went on to become the best male cheerleader in the NBA), defensive stopper Charlie Bell, and primary scorer Morris Peterson. After coming up short in the 1999 Final Four (losing in the semis to Duke), the senior-laden roster rolled through the tournament behind defense, rebounding, and clutch shooting from behind the arc, not to mention the coaching of Tom Izzo. Therefore, to find a team in the mold of the 2000 MSU Spartans, we are looking for a squad with a tenacious defense, a lightening rod point guard, strong perimeter play, experience, and terrific coaching.

Best Candidate for 2007: Texas A&M (Match Score of 8.4 out of 10).
The Aggies aren’t a perfect match, because they do not have a ton of postseason experience, but they did get their feet wet last year with an upset over fifth-seeded Syracuse and a heartbreaking 88-87 loss to LSU in the second round. But everything else is there. Acie Law has the look of a transcendent point guard that can carry a team to a title (he’s got Marcus Williams’ hands blended with Cleaves’ head), Billy Gillespie is a rising star in the coaching ranks, Josh Carter is a perimeter scorer in the Mo Pete mold (52% from three), and the Aggies thrive on playing defense and controlling the pace of the game. They have that grit and toughness that the Spartans featured back in 2000 and as long as A&M can get a decent draw in the Dance and stay out of foul trouble (no easy task), I think they are a threat to win it all.


Year: 2001
Champion: Duke
Winning Traits: Star Player Leadership, High-Powered Offense, Aura

The Blue Devils are always well coached, always play hard, and always get a ton of cheap calls (sorry, couldn’t resist). What really set the 2001 team apart was the fact that they absolutely lit up the scoreboard night in and night out. Jay Williams was the offensive star, Shane Battier was the senior leader and All-American, Carlos Boozer operated in the post, and Mike Dunleavy and Nate James fired from the wings. This team was so good that even Chris Duhon was considered a threat from deep as a freshman sixth man. A quote in a 2001 Tourney preview read, “Sixth man Chris Duhon can shoot from anywhere.” I think in the six years since – three at Duke, three with the Chicago Bulls – it has been proven without a doubt that this is no longer true. Such is the perceived power of an offense putting up over 90 points per game.

Best Candidate for 2007: North Carolina (Match Score 7.9).

The Tar Heels don’t quite have a Shane Battier on the roster, but I guess Tyler Hansborough qualifies as a star player with leadership skills. (Of course, this is just what Josh McRoberts told me.) The rest of the squad compares favorably as UNC scores 88.1 points per game (second in the nation) and has an aura about them that they will run you out of the gym at any time. Like the Devils, North Carolina just has more firepower than most teams. Brandon Wright is just as effective in the paint as Boozer was, Wayne Ellington is probably better than Chris Duhon at that time, Reyshawn Terry fills the Dunleavy role, and I think that there is even more depth on this Tar Heel rosters. That said, their match score suffers because they just don’t have the leadership of that Duke squad. Star point guard Ty Lawson is sick, but isn’t as experienced as Jay Williams was, and Hansborough just doesn’t bring the defense of Battier Still, they are the closest proximity, given that the other high-powered offenses belong to VMI, Eastern Washington (although Rodney Stuckey is sick), and Cal State Fullerton.

(Runner up here is Ohio State. While they don’t score at quite the pace of the Heels, they also have an aura of invincibility, tons of talent, and a driving force in Greg Oden. They get a match score of 7.4.)


Year: 2002
Champion: Maryland
Winning Traits: Singular Star, Inside Scoring, Experience, Coach who is emotional leader

The 2002 Terps were one of my favorite title teams of recent years. They had Juan Dixon taking his game to the next level, Lonny Baxter and Chris Wilcox scoring in the post, Steve Blake running the show, and Byron Mouton keeping everything together. Plus, they had the “win it for Gary Williams” and “avenge last year’s collapse against Duke” storylines going for them. They started four seniors, had a chip on their shoulder, and rode an incredible stretch by Dixon all the way to a title. Does anyone have that look to them this year?

Best Candidate for 2007: Wisconsin (Match Score of 7.0).

The Wisconsin Badgers are a solid match on this one. It all starts with Alando Tucker, who was Durant’s chief rival for national player of the year honors until the award became a runaway. The senior forward drives the Badgers, scoring 20 points a game and has the Juan Dixon, “top off his career with a great tourney run” look to him. Plus, he’s joined by senior Kammron Taylor and junior Michael Flowers to give Wisconsin a very experienced core group. When you throw in the fact that they got blown out by Arizona in the first round last year, note how hard they play, how good Bo Ryan is on the bench, and consider that they are in line for a great seed, the Badgers are looking an awful lot like the ’02 Terrapins. If they had an emerging interior stud like Wilcox to help with the scoring (or even a healthy Brian Butch), they would rate much higher.

(Runner up in this category: Nevada. They are experienced and talented and led by Nick Fazekas, who is averaging almost 21 and 12 a game. The Wolfpack gets a match score of 7.4. Second runner up is Texas, who gets a score of 7.1.)


Year: 2003 and 2006
Champion: Syracuse and Florida
Winning Traits: Hot Start, Crappy Middle, Strong Finish, Emerging Star, Tough to Scout

Syracuse was an unusual champion. They started the 2002-2003 going 13-0 against a weak non-conference slate, before dropping off during Big East play. They were looking like a 4-to-6 seed until they finished hot and landed a 3 seed. All of a sudden, they drew a few good matchups, found their rhythm, and rode Carmelo Anthony all the way to a title. Frankly, I still can’t believe it happened. The very next year, Georgia Tech jumped out to a 12-0 start, struggled in conference play, then reached the ACC title game and nabbed a three seed. I immediately picked them to go to the Final Four on the strength of the “Cuse Corollary,” and won all my pools when they reached the title game. In 2005 I looked hard for a three seed that fit the mold, but couldn’t find anyone (In hindsight, Arizona would have been the only decent option). Last year I went with Florida and it worked like a charm. The Gators started the season 17-0 then went 7-6 over the remainder of the regular season, causing their stock to drop among bracket fanatics. They were considered a disappointment and were looking like a 5 seed when they suddenly gelled and rolled through the SEC Tournament. They wound up looking a whole lot like that ’03 Syracuse team, with a tough game plan to scout, the bookend hot stretches, and the emergence of Joakim Noah. What about this year?

Best Candidate for 2007: Oregon (Match Score 7.7)

Oregon started the year 18-1 before losing six of their next nine and looking like old news. However, they posted impressive wins over Washington State and Washington and won their final three games to build some momentum for the tourney. Then, in the Pac-10 tournament, they obliterated everyone in sight, shooting like 95% from three (okay, that is an exaggeration). Aaron Brooks is a fabulous player (should have been an All-American over Afflalo - that was a joke), Tajuan Porter is turning into a beast (fulfilling the "emerging younster" requirement), and they have skilled X-Factor players in Bryce Taylor (32 points without missing a single shot against USC yesterday) and Malik Hairston. The Ducks are now in line for a three or four seed and are in position to make a deep run with one of the most athletic lineups in the country.


Year: 2004
Champion: UConn
Winning Traits: Size, Experience, Skill, Leadership, Purpose, Being Better Than Everyone Else

This one is going to be pretty quick. The 2004 Huskies were one of the most dominant teams in recent memory. So good, in fact, that even with Emeka Okafor suffering through intense back pain, they still rolled to the title.

Best Candidate for 2007: Florida (Match Score 7.8).

The Gators are the only team that can make this claim. UCLA is good, but not head and shoulders above everyone else (although they do have a ton of experience and, I think, an upgrade at point guard from Jordan Farmar to Darren Collison). Ohio State looks disjointed at times and rarely pummels people. And we’ve already tabbed Wisconsin and North Carolina. Florida has a ton of experience, a distinct style of play, and star power. That said, I pushed their score down just a little bit for a few reasons. First, it is hard to repeat in this day and age. Second, just because they won it all last year and have the same team doesn’t mean they are automatically unassailable. Billy Donavon (or Billy Dunavon, according to Billy Packer) himself said last year that if they replayed the 2006 tournament, a different team would probably have won it all. Plus, the field is far stronger this year than last. I think the Gators are still the best team in the country and they have more purpose and intensity than UConn did last year, but they aren’t a juggernaut like the 2004 Huskies.

(I’m going with Georgetown as my runner up in this category. They are the sleeping giant of this field (no Roy Hibbert pun intended). I give them a 7.3.)

Year: 2005
Champion: North Carolina
Winning Traits: Talent, Redemption, Go-To Player, Athleticism

The Tar Heels were the top overall seed in 2005 and saw four players go in the first round of the NBA draft, so you could make a case that they were just “better than everyone else” like UConn was the year before. However, it never felt like that during the journey. They barely escaped Villanova in the Sweet 16 and had to scratch and claw their way to Roy Williams’ first title. Nevertheless, pure talent was a big factor, there is no doubt about that. They also were on a mission to get Roy a title and to validate the hype that had surrounded both the McCants-Williams and May-Felton recruiting classes. They were balanced, athletic, and had Sean May in the post. Needless to say, this is a good blueprint to emulate, if you can pull it off.

Best Candidate for 2007: Kansas (Match Score 8.5).

This whole college season started for me at Allen Fieldhouse where I witnessed a Kansas loss to Oral Roberts. I was thrilled to see an upset, but remained impressed with Kansas’ roster. They have strength inside, talent on the perimeter, and plenty of athleticism that will allow them to force turnovers and shut teams down for long periods of time. They also fit the redemption bill as they look to bounce back from consecutive first round losses (to Bucknell in 2005 and Bradley in 2006). They might also finally have a go-to player in Brandon Rush, who has been elevating his game in recent weeks. They have the do-everything guy in Julian Wright (a much better version of Jawad Williams), the lightening fast point guard in emerging freshman Sherron Collins (helping Russell Robinson fill the Raymond Felton role), and the freshman scoring star in Darrell Arthur (ala Marvin Williams). They even have a streaky scoring guard in Mario Chalmers, who gives them some of the same things Rashard McCants provided the Heels. There is also the weird Roy Williams connection to Kansas and the way Bill Self needs to silence the critics. The only missing piece is that Sean May player – a guy that can provide the big points when they are most needed. I think Rush can be that guy. He’s the key.

Here is the total list of my contenders, based on the Match Score index:

1. Kansas (8.5)
2. Texas A&M (8.4)
3. North Carolina (7.9)
4. Florida (7.8)
5. Oregon (7.7)
6. Ohio State (7.4)
(tie) Nevada (7.4)
8. Georgetown (7.3)
9. Texas (7.1)
10. Wisconsin (7.0)

We'll see what the brackets come up with, but know that I'll be making my picks off of this list.

The Tourney Beat: Cuse-Huskies

I'm doubling up here because while Syracuse was the victor (78-65) and the team going to the tournament, UConn had the most intruiging player in this game.

Syracuse had a typical game for them where their big men were mired in foul trouble, Eric Devendorf made a bunch of great players a few terrible ones, and Demetris Nichols drained threes from all over the court. Even with Nichols' scoring and the vaunted 2-3 zone, the Orange aren't going to do a whole lot in the Dance this year. Especially if they keep sporting those hideous uniforms.

Moving on ... no one will talk about it for at least five months, but UConn's Jerome Dyson is going to be legit. He has a phenomonal shooting stroke and seemed to get better in every game this season. I fully expect him to be the next great UConn player and a candidate for Big East Player of the Year honors. He's legit.

Looking forward to seeing what West Virginia can do with the pressure on, facing an underrated Providence team.

The Tourney Beat: Villanova

With plans to TiVo about 47 conference tournament games in the next five days and then zip through them in 40 minutes each, I've been trying to decide the best way to absorb what I'm watching and then organize my thoughts. Using the blog is an obvious solution, so every time I see something compelling, I will file a "tourney beat" entry.

The first one is for Villanova, who beat DePaul this morning to kick off the Big East Tournament (always my favorite conference tourney). The Wildcats are considered to be safely in the field of 65, but I wanted to get a good look at them to see if they had some staying power. The verdict: probably not.

Positives - Scottie Reynolds clearly has the ultimate green light from Jay Wright, which makes Nova dangerous. He's very quick, has good ball skills (Reynolds throws a fantastic one-handed bounce pass, with either hand), and possesses a pretty jump shot with almost unlimited range. He is the type of lead guard that could go for 35 in a game and carry his team to a win. The Wildcats are also tough defensively and well coached, so they should be able to avoid blowout losses. Perhaps most importantly, they finally have former high school phenom Curtis "ACL" Sumpter healthy. The fifth-year senior is a good rebounder and a very efficient scorer and looks like he could be particularly effective running the high screen and roll with Reynolds. Nova is also one of the best free throw shooting teams I've seen in a while.

Negatives - This team has no depth and no balance. With 12 minutes to go in the game, Reynolds and Sumpter had taken all but three field goal attempts. This is the definition of a two-man team. There's no bench, no offensive punch, no reinforcements whatsoever. And even worse is the fact that both of Nova's big guns have question marks. Reynolds is a freshman with a tendency to play on extreme ends of the spectrum - either he is out of control or he is too passive. His talent is amazing and I could see him scoring 30, but in the process committing key turnovers and shooting a low percentage. As for Sumpter, he is very prone to foul trouble. Without both of these guys on the floor and playing great, the Cats can't win.

Conclusion - Unfortunately, Villanova’s positives are the type that allow them to beat virtually anyone in any given game while the negatives are the type that prevent them from stringing many wins together. In other words, Villanova might make for a scary opponent, but it seems impossible that they could win multiple games in this tournament, let alone three or four in a row.

The Lost Money All-Stars

the 2006 Draft was, by all accounts, a weak draft. The lack of breakout performances (only Brandon Roy and Andrea Bargnani have been truly impressive, although guys like Rajon Rondo, Rudy Gay, Paul Milsap, and LaMarcus Aldridge have shown a lot of potential) confirms this assessment. And then there is the 2007 Draft, which has been projected to be the strongest since the 2003 class (LeBron, Wade, Melo, Bosh, et all) for several years now.

So why in the world would top prospects have stayed in school last year? There was a dearth of quality picks and the hype was there - it was basically bird in hand. Yet a host of players pulled a Matt Leinart and decided that being the BMOC was worth sticking around for another year. And like Leinart, a whole bunch of these guys are going to take a hit in their draft status and subsequent paychecks. Here is the Lost Cash all-star squad:

PG - Ronald Steele. Last year Steele was right there with guys like Jordan Farmar and Kyle Lowery (both went in the first round) and now he's falling off of draft boards faster than his Alabama team has fallen out of the NCAA Tournament picture. Last year was a decent point guard class which might have played a factor in his decision to return to 'Bama, but it seems he made a terrible choice. Luckily he can do it all over again and take his chances in 2008.
SG - Brandon Rush. His stock wasn't really that high last year, but his failure to grow as a player is going to doom him. Rush is one of those guys that should have gone pro as early as possible when his potential made teams scared to pass on him and before the holes in his game were exposed.
C - Joakim Noah. So far the damage doesn't look too severe, as most project him to be the number three pick in the draft. But that is still down from the #1 pick which he probably would have been last year, and honestly, I think his stock could drop some more by the time he gets worked out by individual teams. By the way, this guy has been front and center for over a year now, so why can't anyone say his name correctly? I was quite sure that that it was simply pronounced Jo-kim, but now I'm not even sure anymore. Wilbon calls him Yo-kim, Gus Johnson today called him Jo-quim, I've heard Yo-quim, Joy-kim. I mean, how is it possible that we don't have this figured out? It is kind of like how Dirk Nowitski was still being called No-wit-ski even though it was evident that No-vit-ski was the correct way. This never ceases to amaze me.
SF - Corey Brewer. Whatever Noah winds up losing will be nothing compared to his Florida teammate. It was widely reported that Brewer needed the financial security as his dad has diabetes and was working multiple jobs to pay the bills. Yet he got sucked into returning to school and went from a probable lottery pick to a late first rounder. I felt bad for Brewer last year and now I feel worse.
PF - Josh McRoberts. It seems pretty certain that McRoberts would have been taken #7 by the Hawks last year - if not higher - and now he will be lucky to be a lottery pick. He hasn't looked good at all this year for Duke.

Not one of these guys is a senior, so if all else fails, they can return to school again and take another shot at the process. But it seems that they all passed up a golden opportunity last year, when their stock was at an all-time high.

I'm guessing that this will never be part of the stay in school campaign.

With the Clock Winding Down ...

Your college basketball team is down by two with 16 seconds left. You have the ball with a chance to tie or win. Which player would you most want to have taking that shot?

If you've been watching a lot of college hoops this year (hopefully you have, because the game is as good as it has been in years), then your answer is probably either Kevin Durant or Acie Law. These two Lonestar State studs seem to be at the head of the class when it comes to making big baskets (with apologies to Alando Tucker of Wisconsin, Drew Neitzel of Michigan State, and Aaron Brooks of Oregon). Law is one of those guys that just wills in the ball in the basket and plays with ice water in his veins, while Durant is a once-in-a-generation talent that can get any shot at any time. They are 1A and 1B on any list I would make regarding last second shots.

That's why the difference between Texas A&M and Texas is so striking. The former goes to Law every single time they need a big play, without fail. The latter seems to be selecting that day's go-to guy by drawing names out of a hat.

Watching Texas play wild, thrilling games against A&M and Kansas last week, I was struck by several things: the brilliance of D.J. Augustine, the quiet emergence of Damion James, the inept coaching of Rick Barnes, and, of course, the freak of nature that is Kevin Durant. However, the thing that stood out the most is the way the Longhornes handle late-game situations, which is to say, not very well.

Texas has absolutely no plan of attack for getting points in the late moments of games. I counted six shots that would have either tied the game or given the Longhorns the lead in those two games and Durant didn't take a single one of them. Not only that, he never even touched the ball. D.J. Augustine jacked up a few (including the one that made it about 18 inches before Julian Wright nearly ate it), but the main culprit is A.J. Abrams. The sophomore Mos Def lookalike has deep range and can make shots, but every time he fires one up, it is a lost opportunity for a superior talent. I don't know how Texas has come to believe that Abrams is the go-to guy late in the game (or, more importantly, how he came to believe that), but they need to reverse their thinking. Because unlike Michigan State and Oregon and (obviously) Texas A&M, the Longhorns aren't letting their best player take the biggest shots.

Texas is 6-3 in games decided by four points or less, but unless they start going through Durant at the end of games, they won't be replicating that success in the Big Dance.

CSI: Thomas Mack Center

I haven't done much blogging lately (mainly because the "blogosphere" has become an increasingly cynical and, frankly, embarrassing place to do business), but tonight's Rookie Challenge forced my hand. There is a mystery to be solved.

No, not the mystery of the Rookie's complete lack of effort.

Not the mystery of David Lee coming off the bench for a sub-.500 team in New York despite the fact that he is a freakish talent. People mistakenly think he's a "hustle player," but the truth is this guy is incredibly skilled and I firmly believe he will average 20 and 12 for a season within the next three years. And it wasn't just the Rookie Challenge performance that convinced me of this; Lee has been great all season. Of course, going 14-for-14 from the field and finishing with 30 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks doesn't hurt. When you can outperform the likes of Ray Felton and Deron Williams when they are having great games, you know you are doing something right.

Not the mystery of Monte Ellis' apparent 60-inch vertical leap.

Not the mystery of the dunk contest, which is featuring such a crappy field (including Nate "The Human Rain Delay" Robinson and two power forwards) that people are already giving Gerald Green the award by virtue of him being the only guy that even remotely resembles a dunk contest participant. Meanwhile, we have the likes of Ellis and Lee and Danny Granger and Rudy Gay throwing down massive dunks during game action. Good work on that one, NBA.

Not even the mystery of how a player - Chris Paul - was able to collect nine steals in a game where no one was trying on defense (he almost had a pretty incredible triple double with 16 points, 17 assists, and the nine steals).

No, the mystery here is this: what in the world was that cacophony of sound that ran through the whole broadcast? I know that there were tons of kids in attendance, but this didn't sound like kids at a game or even at a rock concert. It sounded like kids on a two-hour roller coaster ride. Or kids being hung over a balcony. I'm telling you, this was incredible. Just high-pitched wails that NEVER let up. In fact, they only subsided after great plays, which makes no sense at all.

If we could get the CSI guys down to the Thomas Mack Center to solve this mystery, that would be great.

No More Nate

Lost in the controversy of last year's dunk contest was the fact that by virtue of winning, Nate Robinson would automatically be invited back to defend his crown. And sure enough, it was announced that he would be in the dunk contest in Vegas on All-Star weekend. Terrific.

It is hard to believe I feel so negatively toward the former Washington Huskies little man, but he has gone from a player that appeared to have endless stamina and tons of heart to one of the most annoying characters in the league in just a few years time. His repeated attempts to perform that criss-cross dunk last year was borderline sociopathic behavior and I still contend that he was the worst actor in the recent Nuggets-Knicks brawl that cost Melo all those games. Not only that, but he has one of the worst assist rates in the league ... even though he is a backup point guard and stands 5'9".

Now we have to watch him try the same dunk 50 times again.

Let's just hope that they've either changed the scoring rules or that the judges aren't idiots this year.

Eastern Conference All-Star Picks

You can find the picks for the West in the next post down.

Starters (as voted):

G Gilbert Arenas
G Dwyane Wade
C Shaquille O'Neal
F LeBron James
F Chris Bosh

The big stories here are Arenas passing Vince Carter for a spot and Chris Bosh vaulting past Jermaine O'Neal to reach his first All-Star game. Of course, this just makes some of the choices for reserves tougher, because Arenas and Bosh were automatic. Carter and O'Neal? Still compelling, but they aren't no-brainers. Shaq making it is obviously a joke, but whatever. It wouldn't be an All-Star game without Shaq doing a pregame dance and trying to play point guard at some point.

Here are my picks for the reserves:

G Jason Kidd. I'm not a huge J-Kidd fan, but he has been at his best lately. 15 and 9 is impressive enough, but he's also hauling in 8.3 boards per game. As a point guard! That is Oscar, Magic, Fat Lever territory.
G Chauncey Billups. Vince has better numbers, but Billups is my choice as the second guard in the East. He is still draining big shots and keeping the Pistons in the thick of things despite so many of his teammates sucking (Rip Hamilton excepted).
C Dwight Howard. I'm afraid that no matter how well Emeka Okafor plays, he will never be as good as the man taken ahead of him in the 2004 NBA Draft. Okafor is blocking more shots, but Howard has him in pretty much every other category. Plus, his team is winning.
F Caron Butler. The Wizards are winning and it is in large part due to the play of Butler. He is the only player in the NBA averaging 20 points, 8 boards, and 2 steals a game. Plus, he has terrific shooting percentages and dishes our four assists per.
F Jermaine O'Neal. His huge block totals and double-double averages fend off a bad FG% and the fact that the Pacers suck.
G Joe Johnson. Johnson has cooled off and his assists are down, but the injury to Redd and my inability to put two Nets guards on the team gets him in the door.
C Emeka Okafor. It comes down to Emeka and Vince, and for me, Okafor is the most worthy. But it's a close call.

Apologies to: Redd and Carter.

Western Conference All-Star Picks

Now that the results of the fan voting have been announced and the starters are set, I can make my All-Star picks.

Here are the starters:

G Tracy McGrady
G Kobe Bryant
C Yao Ming
F Kevin Garnett
F Tim Duncan

Obviously, Steve Nash should be a starting guard and Dirk should be starting over Duncan, but this is largely a solid group. Even Yao is okay despite his missed games. He was playing great.

Here would be my backups, with a quick note about each player:

G Steve Nash. Duh. It has taken a long time, but I now convinced that he's the best basketball player on earth.
G Allen Iverson. I know that he's only been in the West for a short period of time and that his inclusion will result in a deserving player like Deron Williams staying home, but those are the breaks.
C Amare Stoudemire. Okur has been underrated and Camby is having a really good year defensively, but Amare's impact on the Suns can't be measured by his 19 and 9. He's looked awesome lately.
F Dirk Nowitzki. He just keeps getting better and better. Before we know it, he's going to rank among the best forwards of all time.
F Shawn Marion. It is hard to put three guys from same team on the All-Star squad, but there is simply no way to leave Marion off the list. I still have my doubts about his ability to come through in the playoffs, but this isn't the playoffs.
F Carlos Boozer. The Jazz have been terrific and while Deron Williams looks like the leader of the team, Boozer has been the go-to guy. 22 and 12 gives him the nod over Josh Howard.
F Carmelo Anthony. The brawl and missed games may keep him out and if Howard makes it, I am fine with that, but Melo is going for 31.6 a night. Hard to ignore that.

Special apologies to:

Deron Williams. Ray Allen has great numbers, but Williams would be my next choice at guard.
Josh Howard. Zach Randolph and Elton Brand are tough leaves, but it is really hard to leave Howard off the squad.
Marcus Camby. Can't have three centers or three Nuggets, so Camby gets the boot.

Race for #1

I can't recall a conference race in the NBA ever being really, really exciting, the way a pennant race is in baseball (or at least, used to be before the advent of the Wild Card system). But we have a truly special showdown looming between the Suns and the Mavericks. Both teams playing insane basketball (Phoenix is 31-2 over their last 33 and Dallas is 35-5 since their 0-4 start) and right now, the Suns have a one game advantage in the all-important loss column. Throw out their 1-5 and 0-4 starts and the Suns and Mavs are winning at clips of 92% and 88%, respectively. Over a full season, those winning percentages would give them both the NBA record for wins in a season. That is pretty impressive. Each squad feels like the time to win it all is now, with Dallas coming so close last year and the Suns facing some salary cap issues in the coming offseason. The urgency is evident in the fabulous play of each team.

However, the race between these two teams is more important than the number of wins they rack up. Because as always, the West is loaded. Phoenix and Dallas may be the class of the NBA, but that doesn't mean they are automatically going to meet in the Western Conference Finals, with the winner taking home the NBA title. There are dangerous teams aplenty in the West, from the Phil and Kobe Lakers to the new-look Nuggets, to the sleeper special Houston Rockets. Not to mention the Spurs, who have great coaching, quality players, and the best refs in the league. (Oh wait, those aren't San Antonio's own referees?)

No matter what seed you have out West, the road will be difficult. But it is shaping up to be a much tougher trip for the #2 seed.

Consider the way things would break down if the season ended today (these days, it seems like all I do on this blog is post the Western Conference playoff seeds):

1) Phoenix
2) Dallas
3) San Antonio
4) Utah
5) LA Lakers
6) Houston
7) Denver
8) LA Clippers

First of all, did anyone even notice that the Clips moved into the playoff hunt? I didn't. Poor KG.

But getting back to the point, look at how well that would line up for the Suns. They would get the Clippers (who they now own) or T-Wolves in round one, thus avoiding truly dangerous teams in Houston or Denver. In round two they would get the winner of Utah (inferior team) or the Lakers (probably can't run with Phoenix this year). And they wouldn't have to play Dallas until the conference finals.

As for the Mavs, they would have to defeat a loaded Denver team that may very well be meshing at that time. Then they would get the winner of the Rockets-Spurs, which suggests a bloodbath either way. And if they were to survive all that, they would have to try to keep up with the Suns, on the road.

While I do think the Lakers are a wild card in the playoffs this year because of Phil's coaching and Kobe's singular greatness (and newfound leadership ability), I would still rate Houston and Denver as more frightening opponents for a single series. That means that if the season ended today, four of the five most dangerous teams would all be on the same side of the bracket:

3) San Antonio
6) Houston

7) Denver
2) Dallas

That, my friends, is a gauntlet.

Which means that the Suns' 15-game winning streak isn't just a nice story. It is a necessity.

And it should make for a fantastic second half as these two dynamos try to keep pace with each other.

NFC Playoff Thoughts

Over in the NFC, things were awfully exciting as both games ended with a score of 27-24. Anytime you get close contests with lots of points on the board, you can’t really complain. Here are some thoughts on the divisional games as well as a prediction for Sunday.

Chicago 27 Seattle 24 (OT). Even though I am living in Chicago right now, I was pulling for Seattle to win this game. I felt bad for the Seahawks all year, as they were constantly decimated by injuries yet never could seem to catch a break from anyone. People acted like they somehow choked this year or something, when in reality they suffered injuries to their starting quarterback, running back, receiver, and almost the entire offensive line and entire secondary.

Yet they still made the playoffs and found a way to advance in the Wild Card round, which, to me, was pretty impressive. And they absolutely outplayed the Bears on Sunday, only to come up a little short.

If I had to fault Seattle for one thing, it would be that stupid angled running play they employ in short yardage situations. I don’t know if it is supposed to be a trap or something, but it never works. By running at a sharp angle, they are giving up leverage and allowing blitzing linebackers to come through and annihilate the running back. They did it against Dallas and lost eight yards one a first-and-goal from the one yard line and then they did it four more times against Chicago and lost yardage every time. If you are going to run, slam it up the middle or toss it outside. Don’t go halfway between the two.


New Orleans 27 Philadelphia 24. Once again, the first thing that comes to mind is play-calling on the part of the losing team. In every game, the loser was victimized by poor playcalling. The Ravens didn’t run the ball nearly enough, the Chargers got too tight late in the game and forgot about LT (especially in the passing game), and the Seahawks insisted on repeatedly trying a terrible running play … that had been a disaster the week before. As for the Eagles, they failed to treat their last possession like it was all “four down territory.” They threw the ball down the field on third-and-ten rather than shave up some yards to make fourth down more manageable. Then, to make matters worse, they actually punted the ball away. Why did Andy Reid do that? Your whole season is on the line, you are trailing, and you know that the opposition (who has run for almost 200 yards at the point) needs only one first down to end the game. Yet out comes the punting team. Just an amazing decision.

On the plus side, we got to see some vintage Reggie Bush. No, not the fumble that almost cost the Saints the game, I’m talking about everything else before that. He took a viscous hit right at the outset, but managed to shake it off and have a really nice game. He had a breathtaking 20-yard run early, a powerful draw play a few moments later, and then the ridiculous touchdown run.

Of course, Bush was only the second best Saints running back in the game. The honor of best goes to Deuce McAllister, who ran all over the Eagles for 143 yards and scored two touchdowns.

The only thing I didn’t like about this game from the Saints standpoint is that they were just a little too excited when they won, like that was their Super Bowl. Of course, the Bears managed to top them on that front, so I guess nobody is at a “just happy to be here” disadvantage.

Saints at Bears. I would like nothing better than to see the Saints go to the Super Bowl and then win it by upsetting either the Patriots or the Colts. And since I picked them to win it all, you would think I could stay the course. However, I had them beating Dallas and the Ravens, because I liked the matchups. I like these matchups less. The Bears feel due for some big plays on defense and I think Urlacher will leave his imprint in the running game. On offense, I think Grossman now has confidence after narrowly avoiding that early interception (when Jordan Babineaux inexplicably missed the ball) and then going over the top to Berrian for a long touchdown.

Deep down I think the Bears will probably win, but I will stick with my original pick out of loyalty.

The Pick: Saints 24 Bears 21.

AFC Playoff Thoughts

I've been meaning to post some thoughts on the divisional round of the playoffs as well as my predictions for the title round, but have been hypnotized by Bravo's Top Chef. So you have my apologies.

Indianapolis 15 Baltimore 6. Even though this game was the least exciting and had by far the fewest points tallied of any of the divisional round games, it might have had the most interesting subplots. The Colts bailed out on the city of Baltimore back in the early 80's, only to be replaced by the Browns-turned-Ravens, who - led by Art Model - snuck out of Cleveland under the cloak of darkness nearly a decade ago. In addition to this intriguing bit of history there was the unstoppable force of Indy's offense going up against the immovable object of B-More's defense.

Then the game started, the Ravens defense prevailed (Manning had yet another terrible playoff game), and yet Baltimore still lost the game. How?

- For starters, Steve McNair came through with a classic Veteran Mistake when he threw a horrific interception at the Colts' goal line, which took points off the board and halted Baltimore's momentum when they finally had something going. Not only that, but then the vaunted defense failed to pin Indy deep, instead allowing the Colts to go marching back down the field.

- The Ravens were also victimized by bad luck, when two interceptions were tipped away by Ray Lewis.

- They got hosed by the officials, who blew the play dead when they incorrectly thought Ed Reed (who was by far the best player on the field) went out of bounds before lateraling the ball to Chris McAllister. The officials also made a terrible holding call on Jonathan Ogden and missed a blatant unnecessary roughing call on Cato June.

- Baltimore really missed B.J. Sams' return abilities on special teams.

- But mainly, they shot themselves in the foot with bad playcalling. Despite facing a run defense that many have called one of the worst in NFL history, the Ravens only ran the ball five times out of 22 second half plays. It wasn't until the 3:15 mark of the third quarter that Jamal Lewis got his first carry of the second half (after nine passing plays and a fullback dive) and for the game he got just 13 totes. How is this possible? Not only did Lewis look better than he has at any time since he had his soul taken in prison, but the Colts are porous against the run! Here is the problem with exploiting a bad run defense: it only works if you actually run the ball.

Give the Colts credit for being able to move the ball on the ground when they had to – especially on the last drive with Rhodes - and for getting the job done on defense, but don't mistake this victory for any kind of dominance. In fact, that is the irony here. The Colts are now playing at home in the AFC title game and will probably win the Super Bowl, but they are only this far because the first two teams they played just absolutely gagged. The Chiefs should have given them a run for their money and Baltimore absolutely should have won the game. Amazing.

New England 24 San Diego 21. In my playoff "guesses" I forecasted matchup and result, because I just couldn't picture the Chargers beating the Patriots. It turned out that was correct, but for the life of me, I still don't know how this happened. My dad suspects that Belichek has some sort of voodoo doll that he employs on the sidelines. I keep flashing back to the movie The Last Boyscout and wondering about a point shaving scandal. I mean seriously, how in the hell did this happen? The Chargers were bigger, faster, stronger, and better all game long. They had the unstoppable Tomlinson, Rivers was handling the situation well, and Brady was taking a giant dump on the field. But then the dust cleared and the Pats were doing the Merriman Lights Out dance and celebrating yet another huge postseason win.

I'm still in shock, as you can probably tell from this scattered recap. The hardest thing here is to assign blame. I guess you can blame Marty since he has a track record and a few key mistakes can be traced back to him. Eric Parker fumbling that punt should never have happened, because once he dropped three passes and showed that he was the leader in the clubhouse for the Worst Hands Award, he never should have been back there. Florence getting the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on fourth down has to go back to the coach, at least on some level. The conservative playcalling after the game was tied, that definitely falls on Marty. But a guy intercepts a fourth down pass and then fumbles it? How can you anticipate or prevent something like that?

I couldn't feel any worse for the Chargers at this point, I don't think.

Patriots at Colts

I personally don't think either team deserves to be in this game. The Colts have had two opponents just roll over and give them the path to the Super Bowl, while the Patriots' victory called to mind the putt at the end of Happy Gilmore. And I don't know about anyone else, but I am sick and tired of the Colts and Pats. It is worse than Sox-Yanks, I think. Blah.

That said, I think this is now the Colts year. They've absorbed two more classic Manning playoff games in which he has thrown five picks and played with the world's tightest sphincter. Now they get a home game to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl as at least a seven-point favorite. Unless the Patriots can find a fountain of youth for Corey Dillon and/or get Laurence Maroney to run like he did before be bruised his ribs (or somehow acquire Maurice Jones-Drew and disguise him as Kevin Faulk), they won't be able to exploit this run defense. And they certainly don't have the receivers on offense or the corners on defense to win a shootout. Unless, of course, Manning actually poops his pants on the field. Then all bets are off.

The pick: Indy 27 New England 17.

Rockets-Lakers Not Going to Happen

I keep reading about how the Rockets and Lakers are headed for an epic first round clash in the NBA Playoffs. Umm ... what? Yes, they are currently the #4 and #5 teams in the Western Conference Standings and yes, it seems unlikely that they will catch the Suns/Mavs/Spurs trio for a higher seed.

However, just because the NBA changed the rule that required division winners to be slotted in seeds 1-3 doesn't mean that winning the division no longer matters. The three division winners still get top four seeds, which means that the Northwest Division winner will be in the mix. If the playoffs started today it would like look this:

1) Dallas
2) Phoenix
3) San Antonio
4) Utah
5) Lakers
6) Houston
7) Minnesota
8) Denver

Not only does this list tell me that KG is a freaking hero and that the Clippers should be ashamed, it seems to obviously tell us that the Rockets and Lakers won't be playing each other this year. In fact, the only way they could meet in the first round would for the following things to happen:

- A team from the Northwest (Utah, Minnesota, or Denver) would have to get insanely hot and crack the top three in the West.

- One of the current top teams would have to tank, not just below the Northwest winner, but below both the Lakers and the Rockets.

As best I can tell, the only chance of this happening is if the Suns or Spurs tank to the #6 spot in the West, so that the standings would then look like this:

1) Dallas
2) Phoenix (or San Antonio)
3) Utah
4) Lakers
5) Rockets
6) San Antonio (or Phoenix)

Does that seem at all likely? Of course not.

The most likley scenario is that the Lakers and Rockets remains where they are now. And that would mean that not only is a first round matchup out of the question, but that they could not meet in the playoffs until the Western Conference Finals.

In other words, there is almost no chance that the Lakers and Rockets will meet in the playoffs this year, in any round, under any circumstances.

But by all means, let's keep talking about how such a series would go.

Idiots.

The Khoub Report: Vol. 4

I was lucky enough to watch the Nuggets-Rockets tonight in what can only be described as the most enjoyable terrible game I've ever seen. Despite horrific bricks being launched from all directions, we still were treated to the following: a great effort from Iverson, signs that the Steve Blake trade is going to be a good move, 24 rebounds from Marcus Camby, a bizarre phone interview with Carmelo Anthony, high comedy from the Bill Walton and Jon Barry duo (Barry is getting better with each passing game), and a big night from Shane Battier. Plus multiple finger wags from Mutombo. Of course, none of that really matters. This is the Khoub Report. So how did our boy do?

The answer to that depends on whether you are talking about offense or defense. You see, Yakhouba was a regular Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde in this one, playing 37 minutes of tenacious defense on Tracy McGrady while also launching a horrific series of ill-advised shots on the offensive end. Honestly, it was bizarre. His D was Bruce Bowen-esque, right down to the 5-for-17 shooting from McGrady, the slight bumps and borderline muggings, and the disgusted reaction on T-Mac's face. It was a virtuoso defensive performance. But on the other hand, he had such a bizarre and often atrocious offensive game that he became the running joke of the broadcast. Despite canning a three with the clock winding down in both the first and second quarters and with the shot clock running down in the third, Khoub finished 3-for-12 from behind the three-point line. 12 attempts! He had an airball, a missed attempt at a game-tying three, and multiple instances in which his shot selection could only be described as terrible. He also had a five minute stretch in which he stepped out of bounds, travelled, and threw a pass off the backboard. It was tough to watch. The good news is that both J.R. Smith (4-for-17) and Leinus Kleiza (0-5, 5 fouls in 25 minutes) were far, far worse.

Giving him a grade is almost impossible, but I'm going to try.

The Line:
37 minutes
13 points
5-14 FG
3-12 3PT FG
4 turnovers
2 blocks

The Grade(s):
Offense (not counting the final five seconds of each quarter): D-
Offense (last five seconds of each quarter): A
Defense: A-
Overall: B-

NFL Playoff Guesses

I tried to shrug off any accountability when it came to making my picks for the baseball playoffs, which was a good plan since I had the Dodgers and Twins squaring off in the Fall Classic. Solid picks right there. And the whole "these are just guesses because the playoffs are too hard to predict" disclaimer seemed to work, because the number of "you suck, you are an idiot" emails was surprisingly low.

Anyway, I'm going that route again. The NFL playoffs are a complete and total crapshoot, as proven by the sixth-seeded Steelers last year. Given that truth, I am going to lay out my "guesses" for the playoffs. Here goes nothing.

NFC

Wild Card Round
PHILLY 27 New York 24 - I don't see how the Eagles can be favored by 7 in this one, but I also don't see how the Giants can switch gears to try to win, when they've been playing like they were trying to lose for two months. I like Philly's defense better (especially the reenergized Brian Dawkins), I think Brian Westbrook is the best offensive player in this game, and I saw Invincible on an airplane recently and that gave me some positive vibes about the Eagles in general. But if I was a gambling man, I would absolutely be taking the Giants and the points.

Dallas 28 SEATTLE 21 - I've seen the last four Seahawks games from start to finish and I'm here to tell you that Seattle sucks (and this is from a Washington native and a guy that picked Seattle to win the Super Bowl this year). The line has been a disaster all year, Alexander is hitting the hole like he's running barefoot on hot coals (the tippy-toe steps, not the urgency), and Hasselbeck is dinged up and missing his best wide receiver (although DJ Hackett is doing an admirable job in Darrell Jackson's absence). Meanwhile, the Cowboys look like the classic possum team that fades down the stretch only to turn it on for the postseason. Like the Cardinals in baseball. Bastards.

Divisional Round
Dallas 31 CHICAGO 24 - This may look surprising, but note a few things: 1) Chicago crapped the bad at home last year as well (against Steve Smith and Carolina), and 2) the Bears have routinely been giving up tons of yards and points ever since Mike Brown and Tommie Harris went down with injuries. The Harris injury was especially costly, because without him, the Bears can't get a pass rush without blitzing. If Dallas keeps Devin Hester from scoring on kick returns, I think they simply have a better team.

NEW ORLEANS 34 Philly 31 - Yes, I think it is going to be a high-scoring postseason, at least in the NFC. When teams aren't that good, the deficiency tends to be on defense, which is the case with many of these squads. The Saints are pretty weak all over on D, Dallas can't stop the deep pass, Seattle has approximately one healthy player in the secondary, the Bears have been ravaged by injuries and are getting by on rep alone, and the Giants and Eagles have been mediocre all year. Who is going to stop anyone? And since the Saints have the best offense in the conference, I think they advance courtesy of shootouts.

Conference Championship
NEW ORLEANS 31 Dallas 21 - The Saints have already defeated the Cowboys (and it was in Dallas), so why go against them here? It doesn't seem like anyone is giving the new America's Team a chance to win the NFC, which confuses me. This race is wide open and all New Orleans has to do is win two games. (When all else fails, go with a team that is required to win fewer games.)

AFC

Wild Card Round
INDY 31 Kansas City 17 - I know the Colts can't stop the run, but I think the story is being blown out of proportion. Some of the guys over at Rotowire (where I cover the abysmal Raiders) have dug up some impressive research that seems to prove that yards per pass attempt is the most critical stat in the NFL. And last time I checked, the Colts were pretty good at that and the Chiefs weren't. (And in case you want to point to last year as proof to the contrary, I urge you to check the stats, where you will see that the Steelers marched to the Super Bowl by completing long pass plays, not by running the ball. They were improbably successful on third-and-long in particular, which kind of proves that Cower unleashed the long passing game not by design but by accident.) So even though KC has LJ, they aren't going to beat Indy in the dome.

NEW ENGLAND 24 Jets 10 - I think the Pats are going to get some revenge here. Maroney is finally healthy, Dillon is running hard in his role, and Reche Caldwell has shockingly emerged to give Brady a decent #1 option in the passing game.

Divisional Round
New England 21 SAN DIEGO 17 - Look, I love the Chargers. In fact, if you go back to my NFL preview column for Whatif, you will see that I actually picked them to win the AFC before the season started. I'm not sure about this, but I might be the only person on planet earth that did that (of course, I also picked the Jets to win three games, so I'm not going to get too excited). That said, they are going to be getting a tough matchup here. The Pats looked good against the Titans and Belichek has a habit of making life miserable for young quarterbacks. I see the Patriots loading up on LT, confusing Rivers, and scheming for Merriman ... and pulling off the upset.

BALTIMORE 24 Indy 21 - I kind of feel like this is the Colts year to break through and win it all, if only because this is the year no one expects them to (note: this was the same logic I employed in picking the Cardinals to win their series with the Padres and they went on to win the World Series, so maybe I should take that into consideration ... nah). That said, I think the Ravens defense is too tough and with home field advantage, the Ravens should be able to get the job done.

(By the way, I don't remember ever taking more heat for a preseason pick than I did when I tabbed the Ravens to win the AFC North. Funny, I haven't heard from those readers in a while. And yes, this is going down as my most reflective, bitter, and horn-tooting blog post of all time. So bet it.)

Conference Championship

BALTIMORE 17 New England 13 - The Patriots are going to be a tough out, just as they were last year when a bogus pass interference call was the only thing between them and a possible fourth title in five years. But I think the Ravens will do the job, especially since Kyle Boller has looked good in relief duty this year and gives them insurance for the inevitable Steve McNair injury. Who would have thought that Kyle Boller would ever be an asset? In January, at that.

Super Bowl
New Orleans 24 Baltimore 20 - Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but I believe the Saints can win it all. They have multiple game-breaking players on offense, an explosive return game, and - most importantly - the right matchups if things go this way. Philly, Dallas, and B-More? They can beat those teams. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find an offense better suited to beating the Ravens. With their rhythm passing game led by Drew Brees, New Orleans can get the ball out quickly and force B-More's aging secondary to make tackles. As good as those guys are, I'm not sure that bringing down players like Reggie Bush and Marques Colston in the open field is their specialty.

So there you have it. If I get one game right, I'll be happy.

Raiders Must Take Quinn

I know there is plenty of time for NFL Draft conjecture, but now that we know Oakland has the top pick in the 2007 Draft, let me just say that Oakland absolutely has to take Brady Quinn.

They passed on Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler last year because they supposedly had quarterbacks for the present (Aaron Brooks) and the future (Andrew Walter). The guy they took instead – safety Michael Huff - had an up-and-down season (at best) and while he might wind up being worth the #7 pick, I don't see how Oakland can remain convinced that they are set at the quarterback position. Even an organization as out of touch as the Raiders has to realize they need a new signal caller.

Brooks is clearly done as an NFL quarterback, but it was the play of Walter in 2006 that made for the bigger story. While it is true that the former Sun Devil played for a very bad coach, had an offensive coordinator fresh off a Bed And Breakfast stint, was armed with a #1 wide receiver that rarely tried, and dropped back behind the worst offensive line in football, that still doesn't excuse just how awful he was. Walter completed 53.3% of his passes, threw 13 picks with just three touchdowns, and compiled a horrific 55.8 QB rating. Plus, he mouthed off a couple of times and showed very few leadership qualities. Oh yeah, and he was also injury prone. Pretty solid all the way around.

Fortunately for the Raiders, Quinn looks like the real deal. Unfortunately for the Raiders, Quinn's biggest weakness is the pass rush. When he has time to throw he can dice up any defense, but when the rush is on (see: the UCLA and Michigan games), he has a rough go of it. This means that if Oakland is to draft Quinn, they will need to spend the rest of their offseason fixing that miserable o-line. They need a new ... well, pretty much everything, including left tackle (Robert Gallery isn’t very good, folks).

In fact, the offensive line is so bad that the Raiders may be tempted to go that way on draft day, especially with Wisconsin's Joe Thomas available. To me this, would be a mistake, as would the selection of Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson, because while you need to give a quarterback blocking and a guy to throw to (and with Moss on his way out, Johnson could slide right in), you need the quarterback first and foremost.

And the Raiders definitely don't have that.

Get Joe Smith a Security Detail

We need to make sure Kevin Garnett doesn't kill Joe Smith in the coming weeks and months. No, seriously.

Could any one player in the NBA hate another player as much as KG probably hates Smith right now? Obviously, this has nothing to do with Smith himself, I'm sure he's a charming man. However, the facts paint an ugly picture:

Fact #1: Joe Smith was highly overrated coming out of college, going #1 overall despite possessing a limited game.

Fact #2: Smith was frequently referred to as a "bust" during his first three years, spent with Golden State and Philly. Over that period of time he averaged 16.2 points and 7.8 boards while shooting a paltry 45%. Those are Nenad Krstic numbers ... except my boy Nenad shoots a much higher percentage.

Fact #3: For what could best be described as an average power forward, Kevin McHale broke a whole bunch of NBA rules in an attempt to sign Joe Smith under market value in exchange for a wink-wink future deal. The NBA found out about it after the fact, stepped in and voided the contract, and Smith signed with the Pistons.

Fact #4: Somehow, Smith found his way back to the Wolves, so that KG and everyone else had to look at him on the bench while they suffered without any draft picks. The five-year ban finally ended and they took Randy Foye last year.

Fact #5: Scratch that, this one isn't a fact. Hold on.

Rumor #1: It appears that the Wolves were unable to get Iverson because they didn't have a 2007 draft pick to include in the package. This pick was lost when McHale traded Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric, which is a bad enough trade even before you factor in the knowledge that the Wolves were the ones giving up a first round pick to sweeten the deal. Holy hell.

Fact #5: The Wolves don't have a 2007 draft pick because they used it to acquire Marko Jaric. (I had to type it again just to be sure it was real.) So even though the Smith Incident didn't cost them the '07 pick, it symbolizes the whole situation.

Fact #6: Joe Smith is involved in the deal that does net Iverson for the Nuggets. KG has to sit by while his team does nothing, has no draft picks, and the guy that screwed up a half a decade for his Wolves is sent to Philly in exchange for the very player that Garnett desperately wants to be his teammate.

Could this be any more painful for KG? Could there be more irony? How does Kevin McHale still have a job?

Joe Smith better hope that KG doesn't piece all this together.

Poor KG: Winners and Losers of the AI Trade

I am going to write about this in more detail in a column for Whatif, but here are my quick winners and losers from the AI trade that went down today.

Winners:

Denver. It is going to require an adjustment period, but if Melo can move past this sucker punch incident, I think this will work. There are more than enough shots to go around in Denver and while Iverson would do well to be a little bit more of the dazzling passer he was in the Denver All-Star Game (I think that was '05), he doesn't have to alter his game that much. It's really about Melo, which is nothing new.

Andre Igoudala. There are more shots and touches to be had in Philly now and he's got a decent point guard (read: not Kevin Ollie) to get him the rock. Of course, as long as Webber (the true source of all Philly's problems, from salary to shot selection) is around, Iggy's growth will continue to be stunted to a certain degree.

The West. The rich get richer.

The Nets. The Celtics are idiots, which means that atrocious Atlantic is still up for grabs which means New Jersey can keep skating by.


Losers:

Philly. They lost a long time ago. But they just topped it off with this half-assed trade. People are going to believe this is a decent deal because there are plenty of catch phrases that GM's love to throw out there like "expiring contracts" and "draft picks." However, Billy King wound up with a crappy deal here: a worthless expiring contract (Smith's $7 million will come off the books in year where the Sixers are still like $15 million over the cap), two crapshoot picks (even in a deep draft, picks in the 20's are a toss-up), and a journeyman pointguard with his own bad contract (Andre Miller and his three years/$27 million). Not sure what there is to get excited about here. That little grab bag in exchange for a once-in-a-generation player? Yikes.

The East. And the poor get poorer.

Boston. See above.

The Clippers. I still can't believe the Clippers wouldn't trade Livingston (the verdict is still out on him, by the way) when they had the chance to become a legit title contender overnight. Weird.

Kevin Garnett. Just when we thought there was a chance ...

Earl Boykins. Sorry, little man, your days of jacking up almost a shot a minute are over.

Khoub Report, Vol. 3

This special edition of the Khoub Report is here to announce that Yakhouba Diawara gets an A+ for tonight's 123-100 victory over the Knicks for being one of the seven Nuggets that was NOT ejected in that brawl. Good times.

The Line:
11 minutes
2-for-2 from the field
6 points (on two 3's)
2 assists
1 rebound
0 ejections
Grade: A+

By the way, lost in the brawl news are two interesting stories:

1. Stephon Marbury went 13-for-24 from the floor and finished with 31 points and 8 dimes to have his first good game of the season. Supposedly Walt Frazier was going to offer up some help to get Marbury out of his funk. So did he? If so, boy was that fast. If not, should he still help him? So many questions.

2. The Nuggets finally showed some common sense and started Nene at power forward. Granted, he got in early foul trouble and only wound up playing 17 minutes, but if you are going to try to pawn off an overpriced, injury-prone big man, you might want to showcase him a little bit. Denver has been running that guy out there for tiny chunks of time and the results haven't been pretty. If they expect the Blazers to take him off their hands as part of an Iverson deal, they need to start him, let him work up a sweat, and hope that he can show something. Tonight was a step in the right direction.

Josh Smith: A True Enigma

While watching the Bulls-Hawks tonight, I was struck by how terrible Josh Smith's body language is when he's on the court. He jogs in transition, has his arms at his sides most of the time, and generally seems like he could care less what is happening. Yet he was easily the most disruptive player on the court (including Ben Wallace). After one half of play he only had a steal on the books, but he altered countless shots and deflected at least four passes. In one sequence, he caused a bad miss, tipped a rebound to a teammate, and then (after said teammate lost the ball), deflected a pass and prevented a fastbreak basket. It was unreal.

For the season, Smith is fifth in the NBA with 2.4 blocks per game, while also collecting 1.4 steals per. His total of 3.8 "measureable defensive plays" per night is tied for first in the league with Shawn Marion.

The question is: how can a guy that looks so apathetic make so many defensive plays? Chalk it up to his unbelievable combination of athleticism and instincts.

Greg Oden: Why the Lefty FT's?

I tuned in to Ohio State-Cinci today to get another look at the Hoff Bros. (my brother Drew and I) pick to win it all, and was treated to the usual slashing from Michael Conley Jr., shooting from Ron Lewis, and all-around sensational play from the underrated Daquan Cook. And of course, dominant play in the paint from Greg Oden.

One thing left me puzzled though: why is Oden still shooting free throws with his left hand? I admit it makes for a fun story. I mean, we can take a trip down memory lane and remember Bo Kimble's tribute in the 1990 NCAA Tourney. We can talk about how Oden is shooting better with his off hand than Shaq does with his strong one. It speaks to Oden's work ethic and skill level and blah, blah, blah. But why is he doing it?

He throws outlet passes with his right hand. He blocks shots with his right hand. And he throws down monstrous, thunderous dunks with his right hand. All of those things would seem to be more taxing than shooting a free throw. Is it the bending of the wrist on a 15-foot shot that presents a problem? Is it because there is time to think on a free throw as opposed to just reacting and playing through pain with the rest of the stuff? Consider me curious. It's great that everyone under the sun is mentioning that this is happening, but just once I'd like to hear why.

AI to the Wolves?

The Allen Iverson Saga burst onto the scene like a tornado. It was nothing but clear skies on the NBA landscape and then all of a sudden we had a funnel cloud picking up houses and uprooting trees. In the span of just 48 hours, AI went from being the only guy on the Sixers actually trying in a game against the Bulls (man, I'm glad I didn't attend that blowout) to being pretty much done in Philly. It's crazy. Philly had a chance to move him all summer and Billy King blew it and now they are handling this so, so poorly. They are faking an injury so he doesn't get hurt and damage his trade value, insulting him by sending him home and not allowing him to attend the game, and then showing their hand by telling everyone he's on the way out (they can thank their chairman and his sideline interview during the game tonight for that). They will be lucky to get a starter and a draft pick at this rate.

Of course, all of this begs the question: where will Iverson be headed? The Celtics were the big rumor over the summer and with their plethora of young players like Gerald Green and Al Jefferson, they might be able to swing something. AI would be a decent fit in Denver, where the up and down style would enable him to get plenty of shots alongside Melo. The Clippers make a whole lot of sense, although their best bargaining chip (Corey Maggette) plays the same position as Andre Igoudala. However, the team that looks like the best fit is the T-Wolves. They have a lot of pieces and movable parts (not for a fair trade, certainly, but then again the Sixers are kind of screwed, so that might not matter), and more importantly, Minnesota is home to the one superstar that would be a perfect fit with Iverson: Kevin Garnett. I wrote about this last spring in a column about pairing up ringless NBA stars, but Iverson's willingness and ability to take and make big shots is a perfect match with KG's unselfishness. I'm not sure the Wolves would have anything else going for them in the starting lineup, but it would be a lot of fun to watch those two guys play together. They've both been surrounded by dog crap for a decade, so this would be nice to see.

If this happens, by the way, the Bulls will have missed their window to acquire KG. I'm not sure what Paxson was waiting for, but it looks like Minny might be doing the reverse of what we all expected. Instead of doing KG a favor and sending him out to a contender, they are trying to bring in a big gun and fix things in the North Star state. So if the trade goes down, it is sorry, Bulls fans. And sorry, Lakers fans too.

By the way, Arenas just banked in a three to end the half of the Philly-Washington game, which gives him two straight 35-foot buzzer beaters to end quarters. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before. I'm also not sure I've ever seen a guy shoot such deep jacks so effortlessly. We all remember the 35-foot jumper he made with ease against Cleveland in the playoffs last year and it seems that was no fluke. The guy puts up bombs like they are free throws.

UPDATE: Jim Grey just came on the air and said that his report earlier (saying that Iverson was looking forward to a trade to Minny) was worthless because the guy on the phone that he thought was AI was "an imposter." This, to me, is hilarious. Nice scoop, Jim Grey.

I Guess Market Dominance Isn't Enough

ESPN strikes again. I detailed my disgust for the World Wide Leader in a recent post, but I feel compelled to bring the topic up again in light of a recent controversy surrounding ESPN writer Scoop Jackson.

In case you haven't heard by now, Jackson wrote a column about being the new NBA basketball. A few people linked to it and sent it to me, some with comments saying it was funny, others that it was abhorrent. Since it was an ESPN column, I ignored it and continued my boycott of all ESPN.com content. At the time, I had no idea what was actually in the column, but the idea of a basketball telling his own story in the first person felt strangely familiar.

Want to know why? Because someone already came up with it, that's why. The terrific NBA blog YAY Sports already wrote that story. In fact, they have developed quite a back story for what has become an actual copyrighted character by the name of Orange Roundie.

On the YAY blog, the concept is well-down and evokes some laughs and no doubt Scoop Jackson thought the same thing, because he straight up jacked it and used it for a Page 2 column (insert your "scooped the idea" joke here). Not only that, but he also used the name "Orange Roundie" in the story, which is at the very least highly unethical and quite possibly a form of copyright infringement. In doing so, he basically admitted to stealing the entire concept, because how could he mention that a website had named it "Orange Roundie" and then expect us to believe that he somehow gleaned the nickname without seeing the context in which it was used? That would be like me writing a movie about a demented cab driver named Travis Bickle, saying I got the name from "a movie," and then trying to convince you that I didn't steal Taxi Driver. Okay, that was probably a bad example, but you get the idea. The use of the name is bad, but even worse is that it tips off the fact that he used the whole bag of goodies.

You can read about all this over at YAY, but to make matters worse, Jackson told Deadspin to convey a message to YAY that goes something along the lines of "Tell those guys that I'm sorry, but hey, at least I mentioned those little bloggers in my column." Like he's handing out crumbs from on high. Really? Scoop Jackson is going to make someone's year by including them in one of his rambling bits or prose? I think not.

Anyway, what really bothers me here is that this seems to be the kind of thing that would happen at ESPN more than anywhere else. The network and website believe themselves to be above all else in sports media and this entitlement leads to bizarre situations and a skewed view of how things are supposed to work. There is a Mafia-like regime in place that stomps out even the slightest criticism from within (see: the Jason Whitlock situation), that makes arbitrary decisions about what type of conduct is allowed (see: the treatment of Harold Reynolds versus that of Michael Irvin), and that projects an attitude of superiority that makes the likes of Microsoft seem like nothing more than a meek manufacturer of computer products. So a writer stealing an idea from a "lowly blog," using it as his own, and then hiding behind ESPN's shield of protection is in keeping with the general feel of the website.

Thus, the boycott continues. And this post is an effort to spread the word. Scoop Jackson is a condescending hack who steals other people's ideas and then posts them on a website that believes itself to be superior to anything and everything else in sports media. Pass it along.

Play the Young Guys

NFL coaches are a frustrating bunch. They are generally way too conservative and avoid risk at all cost, to the point where they are punting from the opponents' 35-yard line down by a touchdown late in the game (Bears at Patriots). Not enough teams throw on first down, prevent defenses don't prevent anything but your chances of winning the game (credit that little turn of phrase to my Dad), and if I see one more draw play on 3rd-and-14 I am going to puke.

That said, there is one stodgy trend among NFL coaches that bothers more than all the others combined: the refusal to hand the keys to the running game to young, superior backs. I don't know if it is loyalty, fear, ignorance, or stupidity, but all around the league, we are seeing young running backs explode onto the scene, only to be kept on the sidelines in favor of lesser players. Here is a quick glance at some guys that should be getting 20+ carries a game and are instead in (at best) time share situations:

Joseph Addai - The rookie out of LSU is the captain of this team. He's received only 22 more carries than Dominic Rhodes, yet Addai has a whopping 324 more yards and three more touchdowns than the Colts' veteran. Is Dungy trying to save Addai's legs? The guy's 23 years old! Addai has only had 20 or more carries in a game twice and in those two contests, he totaled 44 carries for 255 yards and five scores.

Marion Barber - Another "backup" that has clearly taken over as the preferred back in a time share, which frankly, isn't enough. It is nice that Barber is finally getting more carries than Julius Jones, but he should be getting neary all of the touches. Jones is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this season, including a miserable 3.2 per over the last seven games. Meanwhile, Barber is picking up 5.2 yards every tote and has scored 11 touchdowns. Sure, he's not that fast, but he obviously doesn't need to be. When you consider that a large percentage of Barber's runs come in the red zone, that average is even more impressive.

DeAngelo Williams - We all saw what this rookie could do on Monday night when he racked up 175 total yards and a touchdown. Oh wait, nevermind, I guess we didn't all see that, because John Fox has indicated that DeShaun Foster (another member of the 3.9 Per Carry club) will be the starter and split carries if he's healthy on Sunday against the Giants. Genius. Did Fox coach that entire game with a blindfold on? Doesn't he have access to game film?

Jerious Norwood - I think this is a situation in which Jim Mora Jr. just can't bring himself to punk Warrick Dunn and replace him with Norwood. It is the only explanation. Norwood is fresher, faster, more explosive, stronger, and - at this point - simply better than Dunn. The rookie out of Mississippi State unleashed a jaw-dropping 63-touchdown run against the Redskins on Sunday is now averaging a whopping 6.7 yards per carry (easily tops in the NFL among running backs). Not only that, but he leads the NFL in fourth quarter rushing with 367 yards in the final stanza of games. I guess this makes sense, because he only gets to carry the ball in the fourth quarter. Imagine what he could do with some touches during the first three.

You could probably stretch and make cases for Maurice Jones-Drew and Brandon Jacobs as well, but Tiki Barber and Fred Taylor are actually playing pretty well, so we'll let Coughlin and Del Rio off the hook.

The Khoub Report, Vol. 2

It is inexcusable how long it has taken to post the second Koub Report, but I'm here to rectify things. In case you didn't read the first one and don't want to click on the link (hey, I don't blame you - the whole world is one big link now and sometimes it just gets tiring), this is - as far as I know - the only blog in existence that devotes ongoing posts to Denver's Yakhouba Diawara.

Ostensibly, this running post is about giving Khoub some love because his time at Pepperdine overlapped with mine. On a deeper level though, the Insider Blog is celebrating the bizarre turn of events that led a WCC power forward that couldn't defend a chair and went 0-for-17 in his final college game to cracking the Denver Nuggets' rotation as a defensive stopper and three-point shooter. I'm still not sure how this is possible. That said, Khoub is a great guy, so I'm eager to throw a little attention his way.

The good news is that Khoub has recently been providing both of the aforementioned services - defense and threes - on a regular basis. Part of the reason I hadn't posted a Khoub report since his first game was that he was playing kind of poorly (although the real reason is that my apartment building is archaic and cheap and refuses to pay for the wiring necessary for Comcast to provide me with League Pass, so I never see any Nuggets games). Fortunately, that has changed.

In Denver's first seven games, Khoub went 0-for-8 from three and scored just eight points while racking up two DNP's and playing just 11 seconds in another contest. Then he hit three big triples against the Raptors and seemed to find the range a little bit. In the last nine games he is 14-for-38 from downtown (a respectable 37%) with 10 steals and 70 points. He's still not getting big minutes backing up J.R. Smith and Melo, but when he does get in the game, he's making an impact.

Grade (for the past nine games): B+