A Recent History of Predictions

Everyone makes predications these days. But how many ever recount the hits and misses? Bringing up great picks from the past makes you look like a douche and nobody likes to revisit their moronic predictions, so it all just gets buried. However, with the NBA playoffs coming up and a riveting, electric "Sports Bar Preview" on the way from Jack and me, it seemed like a good time to link to some past predictions. I'm posting the good, the bad, and the mixed. Feel free to check them out or not, but at least you can get an idea. Also, be sure to read every word of every column so you can get all the sweet jokes.

Good Predications:

April 28, 2005 - Accurately predicted that Larry Brown would screw over every team in his path. Not that it was hard to know that.

June 30, 2005 - I only hyped this Carlos Beltran performance because of fantasy implications, but it does seem to mark the turning point for his time as a Met. (Check for the angry comments, they are hilarious. You think those guys are still railing about Beltran being a waste of money?)

July 1, 2005 - Correctly tabbed the Astros to surge down the stretch. They wound up in the World Series, so that one feels pretty good.

August 1, 2005 - Hey, got some MVP picks correct. With two months to go, that isn't a huge accomplishment, but when you see some of my baseball picks over the past two years, you will understand that I am taking every victory I can.

January 27, 2006 - I feel good that while Chaz Barkley and Marc Stein (among others) where crushing the Heat, I was hyping their chances for a deep postseason run. (If only I would have remembered that when it came time to make my playoff picks four months later.)

February 1, 2006 - Got myself turned around on the whole Nash: MVP thing just in the nick of time. I am also proud of this column because I believe it is the first and only time in sports media history where someone admitted they were wrong about something.

March 8, 2006 - In one of my prouder moments, a Championship Blueprint model predicted the completely unheralded Florida Gators as a "best bet" to win it all. I just wish I had used my own research when I filled out my brackets.

March 13, 2006 - As predicted, the decision to kill off Tony Almeida has led to the rapid downfall of 24. My only non-sports post was actually right. Maybe I should stick to TV shows.

May 23, 2006 - Long before Joey Crawford tried to fight Tim Duncan, I was railing about NBA refs inserting themselves into the game. This is also the theme of a screenplay that I am writing (with my brother Drew and buddy Juice) and that should be playing in a theatre near you in the summer of 2018. So look forward to that.

June 28, 2006 - We were all over Portland's great draft last year, as well as the Battier trade. Although there are a few shaky comments in here as well (like, "Prediction: Memphis will not be swept in the playoffs next year," except that I meant they would win a postseason game, not be the worst team in the NBA).

June 30, 2006 - I feel good about getting out in front of the Justin Morneau for MVP bandwagon ... even if I didn't mention him at all at the beginning of the year (see the section titled "bad predications" below).

October 4, 2006 - I feel like I got on the Frank Gore Train nice and early. And he certainly passed this test with flying colors.

January 17, 2007 - I got this one right, but just barely. I never imagined that the Lakers could stumble so badly that the #8 seed would be in play on the final day of the season.

January 27, 2007 - Not that it was hard, but I accurately predicted that Nate Robinson would ruin the dunk contest again, which he did by sucking the excitement out of the gym and keeping Dwight Howard out of the second round.

March 12, 2007 - Sure enough, there was no George Mason in this year's tourney field. Not even close. (Although I was way off on Oral Roberts being the best Sweet 16 sleeper.)



Bad Predictions:

April 17, 2005 - My NBA playoff pick of Miami over Phoenix wasn't great, but at least they both played in the conference finals. Given some of my other picks over the last few years, that is pretty good.

August 8, 2005 - I predicted that Donyell Marshall, Stro Swift, and Shareef Abdul-Rahim would be key free agent signings. Sweet fancy Moses.

September 28, 2005 - Cardinals over Angels in the 2005 Playoffs? Yikes. I blame this run of horrible ideas on a particularly traumatic summer employment experience.

October 20, 2005 - Given a chance to redeem myself with a World Series pick I took the Astros in 7 over the White Sox. What happened? Chicago swept Houston. You can't do it much worse than that. I can still picture Juan Uribe diving into the stands for sensational catches and it makes me feel sick.

January 6, 2006 - Check it out, I predicted that the Colts would beat the Bears in the Super Bowl. The only problem? It was one year too early, just like with the Cardinals. So twice in the span of six months, I predicted the winner of a major pro sport ... but in the wrong year. So close, yet so far away.

April 4, 2006 - A detailed and intricate explanation of how Kobe Bryant could win the 2006 MVP award. He didn't come close, although I am still convinced that the theory was sound.

April 6, 2006 - A detailed examination of the AL MVP Award, which cultivated a list of six candidates, none of whom were Justin Morneau, eventual winner.

April 14, 2006 - Some woeful baseball picks. Honestly, these are probably my worst set of picks on record.

October 3, 2006 - The only thing worse than my preseason baseball picks were my playoff picks. I got one series correct, which seems impossible, really. Nice work by me.

January 5, 2007 - My NFL Playoff picks weren't very good. I had New England and New Orleans playing in the conference title games, so that was good, but everything else was pretty bad.

March 22, 2007 - My "stat guy" analysis took a hit here, as Ohio State defied history and reached the title game after a close second round win. (I was also wrong on the flip side, as the research showed that Oregon would win multiple games if it beat UNLV in the Sweet 16. Double whoops.)


The Mixed Bag:

November 2, 2005 - Pitting Detroit and San Antonio in the Finals is admirable, even if I had the wrong winner in my 2005-06 NBA Preview. Also correctly picked Paul as ROY and a few stat leaders. But enough misfires (both picks and jokes) that it goes in the "mixed bag" category.

February 13, 2006 - Yes, Edge wound up in Arizona, but no, he wasn't any good and neither were they.

March 15, 2006 - Roy and Noah were good calls, but Darius Washington as the Next Mateen Cleaves couldn't have been a bigger disaster.

April 20, 2006 - Picked the Pistons to beat the Mavs in the Finals last year (wrong East team pulling the upset). Make sure to scroll down to read Jack's hilarious take on the "fall down seven times, get up eight" D Wade commercial.

June 28, 2006 - Here I railed about the Gators going back to school, accurately predicting a "Leinart-like fall" for Noah. However, the rest of the post is horrendous. I predicted that Horford would fall out of the lottery, Brewer would go in the 20's, and that the Gators were "highly unlikely" to repeat. Sweet work all around.

August 24, 2006 - Got most of the postseason teams right, but shanked the actual playoff picks in this 2006 NFL preview column.

October 13, 2006 - Pretty good effort here by Jack to pick the NBA teams set to make the biggest leap for the 2006-07 season, but the fact that he included the Celtics takes him down a notch. Also, negative points for never posting his "droppers" part of the column.

October 21, 2006 - I suggested going for "tainted players" in fantasy basketball drafts and the results were only okay. Marbury (round 4) was okay, Ginobili (5) turned out pretty good, Tinsley (9) was alright, and Randolph (7) and Chandler (8) were beasts, but Larry Hughes (6), Marvin Williams (10), Mike Dunleavy (11), and Damon Stoudemire (12) were all terrible.

Serving Notice

One of the things I love about the last day of the regular season is that a few young guns get their first chance at significant minutes and serve notice that they have some serious talent. A couple of guys that stood out today and might make some noise down the road:

- Amir Johnson, Detroit. The former high school prep from L.A. lasted until the second round of the 2005 Draft and spent most of the last two years bouncing back and forth between Detroit and the D League, but in the last three or four games he has displayed some real ability. Tonight he had a Josh Smith type line with 20 points, 12 boards, 4 blocks, and 3 steals in 37 minutes off the bench. Between Johnson and Maxiell, the Pistons have some emerging young frontline players that will need minutes. Webber will probably be gone (New York?), so that opens up 48 minutes, but they still have Sheed, McDyess, and the artist formerly known as Nazr on the roster.

- Rajon Rondo, Boston. Rondo has been doing good things for the C's for months now, but he really played a terrific game tonight in the 91-89 loss to the Pistons. He missed only four shots and committed just one turnover on his way to 19-9-4 with a whopping six steals. Rondo also had a 7-steal game recently and is averaging 2.4 thefts per game as a starter (25 games), which would be good for the lead league over a full season.

- Walter Herrmann, Charlotte. The Fabio look-a-like has been balling for the past month and finished it off with 22 points and four threes in the finale. The 'Cats might need to find a place for him next year as he can stretch defenses and put the ball in the basket. Plus, if I have this right, Herr is German term for a man (like calling someone "mister"), so his name is either Walter Mister-Man or Walter Man-Mann. Which is awesome.

- Luke Jackson, Toronto. This isn't so much of a "serving notice" situation, as it is a "holy crap, Luke Jackson isn't playing in Europe!" situation. The former Duck and wasted Cleveland lottery pick got a surprise start at small forward for the Raps today and threw up 30 on 12-for-16 shooting. What?

- Randy Foye, Minnesota. They say that NBA players often take the biggest leap forward in their second year (which may explain the lack of support for a Deron Williams "Most Improved Player" award), and if that is the case, Foye got a jump start on the process by going for 26-8-6 on 10-for-15 shooting with 3 steals in his best game of the season. Luckily, Foye's good play at the end of the year didn't keep the Wolves from tanking their way into the bottom 10, which allows them to keep their pick (finishing out of the top 10 sends the pick to the Clippers).

Get The Tarps Out!

Just a week after King Felix flirted with a no-hitter in Boston, Chicago's Mark Buerhle has tossed a no-no against the Texas Rangers. Buerhle had a horrendous second half last year and started 2007 off by taking a line drive to the forearm, so needless to say, this is a bit of a surprise.

I'm not sure what the White Sox to do reward this sort of thing, but the least they can do for Buerhle is let him resume his favorite baseball activity: using the tarp as a slip and slide during rain delays. Do the right thing, Kenny Williams.

Chicago Bulls: Whoops

With the #2 seed and a clear path to the Eastern Conference Finals in their grasp, the Chicago Bulls walked onto the Continental Airlines Arena floor and took a big dump. One bricked jump shot after another allowed a Nets team with a struggling Richard Jefferson, a crosseyed Jason Kidd (1-8 from the floor), and a fourth quarter offense running through Josh Boone of all people to cruise to a 106-97 victory. Now the Bulls are the fifth seed in the East and will have to go through the Heat just to get to the second round. Then they would face the Pistons. Good luck with that.

As for the Nets, I admit they looked pretty good tonight and could give the Raptors (and eventually the Cavs) a real fight in the playoffs. Everyone will focus on the "Vince Carter against his old team" subplot, but that ignores the fact that the Raps are a true threat in the East and it would be a shame to see them go out in the first round. However, despite Jason Kidd playing well lately, Carter filling up the box score, and Bostan Nachbar bombing threes, I don't think the Nets have enough to beat Toronto. The Raptors have a ton of depth, they get Bargnani back, and they will have the best player on the floor in Chris Bosh. In fact, how Mikki Moore does guarding Bosh will probably decide the series. If he can bother him, the Nets could be a tough out. But if Moore is in constant foul trouble and those Boone cameos become 25 minutes of action, you can pencil Toronto into the second round.

The Most Interesting Guy in the Playoffs

Despite a fairly laconic regular season in which the NBA was completely trumped by college hoops, the playoffs present the possibility for real excitement. The Suns finally have their full arsenal and will try to win a title playing fast and loose. The Mavs are on a mission after the collapse in last year's Finals. The Spurs and Pistons are lurking as the annual "good but boring teams that nobody wants to see in June." The Bulls are trying to win the East without a low post scorer. LeBron and the Cavs look to redeem a tough year. D-Wade is playing hurt. And the West might feature the best 6-8 seeds in playoff history. A lot to get excited about.

However, I am most fascinated by one guy: Tracy McGrady. There are a lot of reasons for this. For starters, he's probably the most underrated and overlooked superstar in the NBA. This is somewhat understandable, considering his ongoing back troubles and lack of postseason success, but it is also perplexing. The lack of success in L.A. the last few seasons hasn't prevented an ongoing fascination with Kobe. LeBron doesn't suffer a press blackout when the Cavs have a mediocre season. I suppose it all stems from the "it feels great to make it to the second round" comment back in the 2003 Playoffs. Ever since that moment, T-Mac has been the media's favorite "he can't win the big one" whipping boy.

Another interesting element of the T-Mac story is how good he was this year while flying completely under the radar. His shooting percentages weren't anything to rave about, but he really blossomed as an all around player. He was routinely getting 8 and 9 assists a night down the stretch, saving his scoring for games the Rockets really needed it, and evolving into a really good defensive player. With his back feeling better, McGrady morphed from an inconsistent scorer into one of the most versatile players in the NBA. Yet because of the other storylines in the West, nobody seemed to notice.

Finally, McGrady fascinates me because I know he's just a big playoff series away from climbing back into the uber spotlight. I know this, because it very nearly happened once already. Two years ago his Rockets played a really weird series against the Mavs when the road teams won the first six games of the series before Dallas finally rolled to a home win in Game 7. Houston didn't have enough perimeter speed to get the job done that year, but it is also true that nobody quite realized at the time how good the Mavs were. They nearly beat Phoenix in the second round and then became a juggernaut last year. Meanwhile, Houston suffered a spate of injuries in 2005-06 and couldn't get it going. For all those reasons, people seem to have forgotten about McGrady's fantastic series. He was doing everything. Even Charles Barkley - who has always been hard on T-Mac - was raving about him. He was right there, about to summit the hoops world. (This was also the year that he he scored 13 points in 33 seconds to beat the Spurs - one of my favorite NBA moments of the decade.) But Houston wasn't quite good enough to get to the second round, then came the injuries, and everything else, and now T-Mac is buried. He doesn't even make most all-NBA second teams, which is downright crazy.

That is why I think he's the most interesting figure in the playoffs. With a convincing win over Utah in round one and an epic battle with the Mavs in the semis, the Rockets and McGrady could regain control of the spotlight, and I think the rest of the NBA might remember just how good this guy is. We will see his incredible ability to get to the rim and finish, the remarkable way he gets off any shot he wants (rivaled only by Kobe), and his fine-tuned passing and defensive skills. I expect a few triple-doubles, a game-winning shot or two, and at least seven Rockets victories. Then, finally, Tracy McGrady will get his due.

A Great (G)Nashing of Teeth

As I expected, my recent column touting Steve Nash for MVP inspired a lot of email responses. The feelings about my choice seem to be 50/50, with half agreeing that Nash is the choice and the other half seeking my banishment to the ends of the earth for being an idiot.

The funny thing about the anti-Nash feedback is that very few of the emails touted someone else (a few pushed hard for Dirk, a few others named X-Factor players), instead focusing on why Nash should not win the award. This isn't surprising, because we are a pretty negative culture these days and it is far easier to pick people apart then build them up, but I admit I was a little startled by how many people seem seriously angry about the possibility of Nash winning a third MVP. For those arguments that hinge on the mere fact that he shouldn't be a three-time winner, I simply direct them to my column, where I already address this point.

However, I will tackle the other primary argument, which was that Nash doesn't deserve the award because he's a defensive liability. First of all, this is ironic, because I wrote a rather aggressive (and in hindsight, stupid) column back in the spring of 2005 relying on the same point to prove why Nash should not win the MVP that year. I believe I was wrong then to fixate on his defensive shortcomings and I believe it is wrong to do so now.

Right off the top, let me say that Nash is a much improved defensive player. He's not a gifted on-the-ball defender, but he gives a strong effort and is a very heady player. He knows how to help down in the post, get over screens, and deny passing lanes. Not only that, but he seems to take at least two charging fouls a game; plays that give his team the ball and also inspire his teammates. And while he is still a player that opposing teams can attack, it seems that very few point guards are capable of doing it to any real effect. Baron Davis is probably the best at it in the league, as he has size and strength to go with quickness and good ball skills. Everyone else just seems to bog down the offense as they run isolation plays at Nash to the detriment of their game plan. Other than Davis, Devin Harris, and Tony Parker (hit or miss), I don't remember any Western Conference points doing much damage against Nash. (Note: Deron Williams and Allen Iverson are both playoff guards that have the ability to score on Nash, but he never has to guard either of them, instead matching up with Utah's 2-guard of the moment and Steve Blake.) And needless to say, he got it all back and then some on the other end.

Not only is he a better defensive player than people give him credit for, it is also hardly a relevant point to the debate this year. Unless you are going to give the award to Tim Duncan or maybe Tracy McGrady, there isn't a two-way stud playing for a good defensive team in the mix. Kobe can get stops when he puts his mind to it and Bosh is a decent defensive player, but the Lakers and Raptors are two of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Cavs are pretty solid on D, but LeBron is still playing good defense only in spurts and while he gets in passing lanes and blocks some shots, he still has too many lapses. So again, among legit candidates, only Duncan and McGrady are doing anything special on the defensive end of the floor. If you want to give the MVP to one of them, I can live with that. There is a bit of history on Duncan's side, as I mentioned in the column, since Nash (last year) and Jordan (in 1988) both won the MVP playing for a #3 seed. However, a McGrady win would be unprecendented in the post-ABA era, as no team has ever produced an MVP without finishing in the top three in its conference.

The real problem I have with this whole Nash/defense argument is that it is being used to disqualify him in favor of Dirk. What? I know Nowitzki has improved on defense - along with his Dallas team - but lets not mistake him for a stopper. Josh Howard takes the best opposing forwards, Devin Harris prevents dribble penetration, and Desagna Diop and Erick Dampier protect the rim. Dirk is just out there, trying not to get torched. I love Nowitzki, but get real, people. Whatever defensive deficiencies Nash might have, they aren't any worse than those of Nowitzki. You just notice them more often because Nash guards the point guard and the point guard always has the ball.

So that is my response to all the emailers who played the "defense" card. Nash is better than you think. He is better than he was two years ago. And he's just as good as Dirk. So unless you want to give it to Duncan or T-Mac, there is no case to be made here.

Big Game for Golden State

I am very intrigued by the Golden State Warriors and their hunt for a playoff spot. They've won 14 of their last 19 games, are playing great basketball, and seem to be gaining momentum as a popular upset pick for the first round ... if they get in.

Getting into the playoffs is no sure thing for G-State, as they lead the Clippers by only one game and would lose a tiebreaker should both teams finish 41-41. The Clippers host a depleted New Orleans team, while Golden State has to go on the road to Portland. While the Blazers are ravaged by injuries and certainly not scaring anybody, I tip my cap to them for playing hard to the finish. Brandon Roy was still playing through tendonitis as of a week ago, and their furious comeback attempt against Houston a few days ago was nothing short of inspiring in this age of tanking. So while the Warriors look good for a W on paper, there is no sure thing when you play on the road against a team that refuses to quit. (By the way, one person who I know is rooting for a G-State loss is my buddy Jack, who is about to become an attorney in San Francisco and is seeing his dreams of getting Warriors season tickets on the cheap being dashed by this late playoff run. I'll be rooting for the Portland upset, Jack.)

Perhaps even more interesting than just watching to see if the Warriors make the playoffs is finding out who they will play. Many fans and critics have latched on to G-State's 6-1 record against Dallas over the last 7 meetings and decided that a 1-8 Dallas-Golden State matchup has the makings of a huge upset, ala Nuggets-Sonics in the 1994 Playoffs. I don't doubt that the Warriors could play Dallas tough, but beat them? I doubt it. The Mavs are so focused and have so many weapons that I just can't imagine them losing a first round series. However, I do think the Warriors could give Phoenix a lot of trouble. Golden State is one of the few teams in the league with enough speed, athleticism, and talent on the perimeter to challenge the Suns, both in terms of pace and output. Now that Jason Richardson is healthy and spreading the floor, the Warriors are capable of 45-point quarters at any time. Throw in the fact that they can use Baron Davis to attack Nash on both ends of the court and I think this could be a long series for Phoenix. It is surprising that no one has mentioned this, because if the Warriors win tonight and the Lakers lose to the Kings, it would be Golden State with the #7 seed. Keep your eye on those games out west tonight.

Juniors and Seniors

If you've been following the recent Greg Oden stuff, then you know we are getting mixed messages about his Draft status. You also know that Mike Conley's dad is planning to rep both his son as well as Oden, should the two Buckeyes enter the draft. You may have also noticed the strange coincidence that both Oden and Conley are Juniors. Not their year in school, obviously, but their given names. Mike Conley Jr. and Greg Oden Jr. Nobody calls Oden "Greg Oden Jr." though. Or, at least, I hadn't heard it. Maybe it is because his dad isn't a famous triple jumper. I have no idea. But it sure makes for confusing reading, especially when Oden Sr. is now in the mix, being the guy that first reported that his son was going pro. Now you have Greg Oden Sr. reporting that Greg Oden Jr. is going to join Mike Conley Jr. in the draft, where they will both be represented by Mike Conley Sr. Whew. Of course, now Conley Sr. is reporting that Oden Sr. has it wrong and that Oden Jr. is still unsure about what he will do. Madness!

As for me, I am personally hoping that both Conley and Oden stay in school at least two more years, so that we might get the following report:

"Today it was reported by Greg Oden Senior that his son, Ohio State junior Greg Oden Junior, will join junior teammate Mike Conley Junior in declaring for the NBA Draft. They eventually plan to use Mike Conley Senior as their agent, but won't do so right away, ensuring that either Junior can return for his senior season."

I would really enjoy that.

The "Best Player/Best Team" Fallacy

In the previous post, in which I annoint Nash as my choice for MVP, I mentioned what I believe to be the fallacy that the award must go to the Best Player on the Best Team. I understand where this type of logic comes from, as the NBA MVP is very much an award predicated on team success. I discuss this in the upcoming Nash MVP column, but 16 of the past 26 MVPs have gone to a player from the best team in the entire league. However, with information like this it is never clear whether the effect is causal or corollary. Is the award given to a BP/BT guy 62% of the time because that is our definition of an MVP, or does it happen because an MVP is often going to help his team to the league's best record? There is no way to know for sure. However, one thing I do know for sure is that the award has gone to a player from the league's #2 team eight times, leaving only 1988 Jordan (his Bulls were #3 in the Eastand #7 overall) and 2005 Nash (the Suns were #3 in the West and #4 overall) as recipients that weren't from one of the top two teams. Given those trends, it seems that we can indeed safely say that the award will usually go to a player from one of the top two teams. That is certainly an established track record.

However, that is entirely different from just finding the best team in the standings, indentifying the "best" player from that team, and handing him the trophy. With two teams in the mix, it allows for a better analysis of true value. This year I feel that Nash was more valuable to the Suns than Dirk was to the Mavs. Reasonable minds can disagree on this, but to automatically pick Dirk ignores a great debate and analytical process. And it is clear that such a debate has been engaged in the past, rather than go the automatic christening route. Here are some recent MVP winners that came from the #2 (or lower) teams, coupled with the likely winner had we just gone with a simple "best player, best team" examination:

2006 - Nash (#3 in West, #4 overall); Chauncey Billups (#1 overall)
2004 - Kevin Garnett (#1 in West, #2 overall); Jermaine O'Neal (#1 overall)
2002 - Tim Duncan (#2 in West, #2 overall); Chris Webber (#1 overall)
2001 - Allen Iverson (#2 in East, #2 overall); Tim Duncan (#1 overall)

You can go back further and find more examples, but that gives you an idea. Duncan would have come out Even Steven under this system, but Iverson, KG, and Nash would have lost MVPs, while Webber, Jermaine O'Neal, and Billups would be holding some hardware. Seems kind of crazy, no? Especially when you consider that only Duncan in 2001 even finished second in the voting. Billups was fifth, O'Neal third, and Webber seventh (he kind of got shafted, in hindsight).

It seems obvious from those examples that using a restricted method of analysis that limits your choice to only the #1 team in the NBA would result in some wayward MVP votes. Even though Dirk is a worthy MVP candidate this year, I hope no one uses such a reductive method to cast their vote in this race.

NBA Awards: MVP

My choice is Little Stevie Nash. To me, he defines the phrase "most valuable player" in today's NBA. The way the game is going, there is nothing more important than having a point guard that can dicate tempo, control the game, and make the guys around him better. There is a reason we bemoan his Canadian citizenship in regard to the Olympics: we know that with Nash running the team, we would win. So forget about the fallacy that the MVP must come from the best team in the league and stop worrying about Nash winning three in a row. If anything, it is imperative that he does win three in a row, because it says everything important about the state of the NBA. It underscores the rule changes and the style changes that now dictate the game and it proves that there is nothing quite so valuable as a gifted point guard who knows how to maximize the talents of everyone around him. Nash is having the best year of his career for a team about to set a franchise record for wins and that has nearly 180 wins over three seasons. He led the league in assists, is in the top 25 in scoring, leads the league in true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage, and paces guards in three-point percentage and field goal percentage. What's not to like? To me, this is the easiest MVP race in years.

For more on Nash, click on the hyperlink above to open the whole page. Posted as the first "Comment" is my complete column on why Nash should win the MVP. It was originally posted over at home base, but was taken down because of some technical difficulties. So it will be stored here for the time being.)

NBA Awards: Defensive Player of the Year

Defensive player of the year is a tough one, because it requires both nuanced observation as well as big-picture thinking. To say that most media hacks lack one or both of these skills would be an understatement. Some, like Charles Barkley, get it. He named Tim Duncan as his DPOY the other night, and that is a choice I can get behind. Duncan is a fundamentally sound defender that handles his man while also playing great team defense (as his 2.4 blocks can attest). He also gets away with a lot of fouls, which helps. Most importantly, those individual and team defensive skills are in aid of a terrific Spurs defense. You have to factor in the impact an individual's play has on the group. You just have to. That is why Josh Smith (weakside shot-blocker extraordinaire), Marcus Camby, and Ron Artest are out of the question. I mean, have you seen those teams play defense? For me, the choice comes down to the five best "scoring differential" teams in the NBA: the Mavs, Suns, Spurs, Rockets, and Bulls. Of those five teams, I then looked at field goal percentage defense and not surprisingly, found that the Rockets, Spurs, and Bulls were the top three in the league in that category. So that takes Raja Bell, Shawn Marion, Josh Howard, and Devin Harris (tremendously underrated defender) out of the equation and leaves - in my mind - Bruce Bowen, Tim Duncan, Ben Wallace, and Shane Battier.

Of those four players, I am ruling out Bowen first, because he not only seems a step slow this year, but most reasonable minds can agree that Duncan was the anchor of that defense. Next I am pulling Wallace, because the Bulls seemed to be just as effective on D when Big Ben was out of the lineup. And let's be honest, he didn't have a great year. Hinrich or Deng may well have been the DPOY on that team. So that leaves Duncan and Battier. You can make a great case for either guy. The case for Duncan is outlined above, but as for Battier, he is one of the most versatile guys in the league. He guards Dirk Nowitzki, then he guards Kobe Bryant. He can play anywhere from shooting guard to power forward because he is able to stretch defenses on offense, yes, but mainly because he is strong enough, smart enough, and quick enough to handle virtually any style of opponent. Battier also was able to anchor a Rockets defense through the losses of both T-Mac and Yao, who only played together 40 times this year.

Battier meets both of my criteria listed above. He does all "the little things" that people don't notice, and he does it for the team with the best field goal percentage defense in the league. For that, he's my defensive player of the year in an extremely close call.

NBA Awards: Rookie of the Year

Everyone keeps saying, this is an easy one: Brandon Roy. And then they move on. They are right that it is easy, but skipping over it ignores just how good this guy is. His 16/4/4 is certainly good, but a closer look shows that as he's gotten healthier, he's become a beast. His scoring average has gone up every month, and over his past 20 games he's been a 20/5/5 player shooting close to 50%. Roy isn't just the best of a shaky class of rookies, he's a stud.

NBA Awards: 6th Man

Manu Ginobili was very effective coming off the bench for the Spurs this year, but this award has been Leandro Barbosa's for months. The Brazillian Blur is going for 18 a night while shooting almost 48% (including 43% from three), with 4 assists, and under 2 turnovers a game. Almost everything he does for Phoenix is positive. Plus, I once boasted of Barbosa's future in the NBA to a couple of buddies who then watched him stink during a game in his rookie year and constantly berated me about it. This will provide yet another link for me to send their way as payback.

NBA Awards: Most Improved

This might be the toughest award to pick this year because of the emergence of so many young players. Monta Ellis, David Lee, Al Jefferson, Kevin Martin, Josh Smith, Andres Biedrins, and Deron Williams are just a few of the players that made huge strides this year. The other thing that makes this award tough is since it is measuring improvement, it isn't clear whether a full season is mandatory (Lee), or how important team success is. I liked what Kenny Smith said on TNT the other night, that teams in contention provided better candidates because every game had something on the line. That said, I think you can also look to the first half of the season, when everyone had something to play for, to kind of get at the same thing. Al Jefferson was my choice initially, but he fits neither of these methods of analysis, since he only started becoming a low post monster after the Celtics were already toast. I'm ruling out Lee, Ellis, and Biedrins because their improvement was really about opportunity. Kevin Martin gets the boot because he was a stud in last year's playoffs. And Josh Smith had already shown flashes as well. That leaves Williams, who I think is being overlooked because he was nearly an All-Star. But since when do we cap the Most Improved award? Last year Williams was a step slow on defense and looked confused on offense as Utah got crushed for taking him over Chris Paul. Now he's #2 in the NBA in assists and looking every bit like a franchise point guard. In my opinion, nobody improved more than Deron Williams.

NBA Awards: Gilbert Arenas Award

This is a new award I'm handing out to the player who makes a huge leap forward during his second year after being an overlooked second round pick, then overlooked rookie. Gilbert only played in 47 games during his rookie year for Golden State and then broke out to the tune of 18 and 6 and a massive contract to play in Washington. Ironically, G-State is home to this year's winner as well, as Monta Ellis thrived under Don Nelson in his second season. After playing in just 47 games last year, Ellis has emerged as a rising star, leading the team in scoring at 16.7 per, while adding over 4 assists and almost 2 steals a game. He also put on a spectacular show during the Rookie-Sophomore game during All-Star Weekend. Hopefully for Warriors fans he doesn't follow in Arenas' footsteps by signing a contract with a new team.

NBA Awards: Biggest Bust

In a year filled with tanking and suspect injuries, you could probably list about 126 busts. However, I am burdened with the task of choosing one (a burden I gave myself), so I will do just that. With apologies to the atrocious Andrei Kirilenko, I am giving this award to Brad Miller of the Sacramento Kings. A fringe playoff team heading into the season, the Kings were looking forward to a full year from Ron Artest and the continued improvement of Kevin Martin. They got both of those (mostly, in the case of Artest), but got a big bag of poop from returning stars Mike Bibby and Brad Miller. Bibby had a terrible year, but he looked awesome compared to Miller. In his first three seasons in Sacto, Miller averaged almost 15 points, 9 boards, and 4.5 assists a game while shooting over 50%. This year? 9/6/3.6 and 44% shooting. Friends, those are Channing Frye numbers.

Actually, that might be an insult to Frye.

NBA Awards: Comeback Player of the Year

I don't even think the NBA has this as an award, but that is stupid, so I'm including it. Besides, next up is "Biggest Bust" and then "The Gilbert Arenas Award," so I'm clearly not following any protocol here (kind of like Jack Bauer in Day Four of 24, back when the show used to be good). Anyway, this is an easy one. While guys like Boozer and Zach Randolph made nice comebacks this year, the hardware has to go to Amare Stoudemire. As recently as the preaseason, it looked as if he couldn't run and might never return to anything resembling his pre-surgery form. A few weeks later he was flying around, dunking, blocking shots, and generally playing like a beast. He's nothing short of a miracle of modern science.

NBA Awards: Coach of the Year

This seems like a good place to start. By all accounts, it is a four-horse race between Avery Johnson, Jerry Sloan, Sam Mitchell, and Jeff Van Gundy. However, picking between these guys is proving to be a difficult task. I think the best thing you can do is come up with a method and then just apply it, without worrying so much about the results. What methodology will I use? I certainly won't be following the path of ESPN's Marc Stein who (and I'm not kidding you about this) opted for Sloan because he "didn't even have Utah as a playoff team" in his predictions. Oh, so your predictions are so good that anyone who surpasses them must be a miracle worker? You have to be kidding me. By that token, Mike D'Antoni wins my vote, because I thought it would be hard to incorporate Amare and that the Clippers would win the division. Does the fact that Phoenix won while the Clippers sucked mean that D'Antoni is the coach of the year? Or does it mean that I was an idiot and made a stupid prediction? I'm going to guess the latter, but then again, I lack the all-seeing genius of Marc Stein.

As for MY methodology, I am going with the "change out" test. With a different coach, would the teams have performed the same? It is hard to imagine that the Mavs would be this good without Avery, but I also believe that they could have a robot coach and still win 65 games with that roster. Sorry, Avery. The Raptors are in the same boat. It seems like Bosh's development and the work of GM Bryan Colangelo are more resonsible than any coaching genius on Mitchell's part for the Raps' turnaround. And I think Van Gundy has been holding Houston back for the past three years, so I'm not about to start giving him any credit. That leaves Sloan, which makes sense to me. He found a way to use Okur and Boozer together (even though neither of them block shots), he masked the complete and total lack of a shooting guard all year, and - perhaps most importantly - he got through to Deron Williams and turned him into an All-Star level point guard. Unlike Stein I DID have Utah winning their division, but luckily for Sloan, I won't hold that against him.

The 40 Club

As of this morning, the Lakers, Clippers, and Warriors all have 40 losses with five days remaining in the regular season. Two playoff spots are up for grabs, which means that there are at least three teams that aren't tanking or resting players down the stretch. What else does it mean?

- It means that the Mavs are watching this whole situation very carefully. They have lost five straight games to the Warriors and seem to struggle with various matchups and G-State's style of play. There is also the Nellie Factor, which seems to turn Avery and Co. from a group of cold-blooded killers into a squad of head cases. How ironic would it be if Nellie thwarted the greatest season in Dallas franchise history with the biggest first round upset since Nuggets-over-Sonics (maybe ever)? Luckily for Dallas, the deck is stacked against the Warriors, as they own none of the tiebreakers.

- It means that the current playoff system might take another shot from critics. The Lakers hold all the tiebreakers here, so unless they lose (they play Sacramento and Seattle, both of whom gave up a long time ago) AND both the Clippers and Warriors win out, they are going to make the playoffs despite their best efforts to choke the season away. However, between the Warriors and Clippers, the tiebreaker is very interesting and seemingly not at all fair. If those two teams tie (they are both 39-40), the spot goes to the Clippers by virtue of a better record within the division. Of course, this makes no sense as division play should have nothing to do with conference playoff spots. This is going to come to light, because the Warriors have a far better record agianst Western Conference teams. By pretty much any method of analysis, conference record is the better tiebreaker. So nice job again, NBA. Throw this in with the Bulls/Cavs situation (where the #3 team in the East is going to get dropped to the #5 seed and a matchup with Miami), and it is obvious that the bandaid solution to the Mavs-Spurs series from last year isn't doing much good at all. There is absolutely no reason to factor in the divisions any longer. Give the divisions winners a banner to hang in the arena, but otherwise just put the top eight teams in from each conference. They all play each other four times anyway. (As for cross-pollinating the field with the top 16 throughout the NBA, this I don't like so much because there are imbalanced schedules and travel issues to worry about.)

- It means that the Suns are going to have a tough series on their hands. Phoenix is still playing hard and digging deep for the #2 seed (and home court advantage in a potential clash with the Spurs in the second round), but they won't get off easy in the first round of the playoffs. About two weeks ago it looked like they were going to get a Nuggets team that they could handle pretty easily, but now things are murky. The Lakers played Phoenix very tough last year (3-1 lead in the series) and believe they can beat the Suns (in fact, I think they tried to tank a little to avoid the Spurs, but now they can't seem to stop the bleeding). The Clippers are getting healthy and playing well for the first time all season as Maggette is taking over, Brand is finding a second wind, and the Hart/60% Sam Cassell point guard combo seems to be working. The Clips will be able to harrass Nash with Hart, Ross, and Mobley just as they did with Livingston and Ross in last year's series. As for the Warriors, they are 12-5 over the last 17 (with two of those losses coming against San Antonio) and are playing great. They also manhandled Phoenix for three quarters (before nearly choking the game away) a few weeks ago in the Bay. With Jason Richardson and Baron Davis finally getting healthy and joining Monta Ellis and Stephon Jackson, G-State is really the only team in the league with as much speed and talent on the perimeter as the Suns. Throw in guys like Biedrins, Pietrus, and Barnes and they have plenty of athleticism to match up. So no matter what, the Suns face trouble. They are either going to get a nemesis in the Lakers, a rejuvinated preseason favorite in the Clippers, or a red hot Warriors squad.

- It means the Nuggets are screwed. I know their hot streak has everyone excited, but I'm here to tell you that they are done. They were sitting pretty good in the #7 spot until they decided to start winning as the Lakers began losing. While Phoenix would have rather played Denver in the first round than the other three possibilities, the reverse is also true. Denver would have had a much better shot against the Suns than the Spurs. The reason is simple: officiating. I've never seen a team get screwed more than the Nuggets this season. Every whistle seems to go the other way. Couple that with San Antonio's Svengali-like ability to get nearly every call and this series is over before it starts. Just wait; there will be three or four close games in this series that look like possible Nuggets wins until a series of horrible calls hands the game to the Spurs. I'm already depressed just thinking about it.

Anyway, keep an eye out on these three teams as they joust down the stretch. The Lakers clearly have the advantage with 40 wins to go with those 40 losses (as mentioned above, the Clippers and Warriors both have 39 wins), plus they play two terrible teams AND have the tiebreakers. Hard to see them missing the playoffs. The Clippers also have a tiebreaker over G-State, but they have a slightly harder schedule, getting a game against Phoenix.

Personally, while I don't particularly like any of these teams, I just hope that the Warriors make it. They have always had terrible luck (like the unlucky break of having Chris Mullin as a GM) and loyal fans, so it would be nice to see them get in. Plus, they are actually playing well. Neither the Clippers or Lakers "deserve it," so I don't care which L.A. teams limps into the postseason.

Tanking vs. Resting

The last three weeks of the NBA season have been a total disgrace. Everywhere you look stars are sitting out with fake injuries as teams are tanking for lottery position. Fantasy leagues are being shredded, the integrity of the draft process is under fire, and all of David Stern's dress codes and age limits look rather ridiculous when teams are basically allowed to go out and lose on purpose.

However, there remains a big difference between losing on purpose and inadvertently losing because you are resting guys for the playoffs. I keep reading things that suggest that the Pistons and Mavs are "tanking" in the same way that the Celtics and Bucks are tanking, just because they are resting guys. Not only is this an absurd thing to say, it also fails to understand the primary problem with what Milwaukee, Boston, and others are doing.

It comes down to providing a service for paying customers. That's the bottom line. People are paying a lot of money to go watch NBA games and when they show up to the arena, they are getting a watered down version filled with bench warmers and D-Leaguers. How can you justify to a Milwaukee fan that you are rolling out a starting lineup featuring Earl Boykins, Lynn Greer, Ruben Patterson, Charlie Bell, and Dan Gadzuric? I mean, that is embarrassing.

A Pistons fan isn't going to complain about seeing Detroit go to an "exhibition season rotation" now that they've clinched the top seed in the East. The reason for this is simple: they get to watch their team in the playoffs. No Detroit fan wants to see a starter risk injury or get beat down with more wear and tear when they have the postseason gauntlet to journey through over the next 2-to-7 months (approximately how long the NBA playoffs seem to last). In fact, most Pistons fans want to see what Jason Maxiell can do with more minutes. They would love to see Carlos Delfino gain some confidence. They are no doubt curious to find out exactly what they have in young Will Blalock.

In other words, the top teams who are locked into playoff seeding actually have an obligation to their fans to do everything possible to prepare for the playoffs, and that usually means getting the unproven guys minutes while resting the studs. To suggest that resting players for the playoffs is the same thing as tanking for ping pong balls (or tanking to keep a pick, like the Hawks are shamefully doing) is just ridiculous.

The Lesson: Don't Try to Impress Your Wife

When I read that Johnny Damon had thrown on 15 pounds of muscle to "impress his wife," I figured he'd hit about 10 more home runs this year, so I took him a few rounds too early in about four fantasy baseball drafts. What happens? He pulls up lame on Opening Day with a right calf strain that immediately had me thinking about star-crossed wide receiver David Boston and the fact that skinny human legs aren't meant to carry around massive torsos at high speeds. And now Damon is probably headed for the DL. Great.

There is some good news though, because according to Damon, his calves are "still sexy." So that is a relief.

The Huggins Problem

Bob Huggins is going to West Virginia, which means we have a very interesting situation on our hands. Rarely have such high levels recruits openly selected a school just for the coach, so we all know that Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are going to want to transfer. However, Kansas State is taking a hard line and saying they won't release anyone front letters of intent (abusing yet another terrible NCAA rule). So what is going to happen now that the NBA farm system that was being cultivated in Manhattan, Kansas is finished before it ever got started? Will KSU cave and let Beasley and Walker follow Huggins to West Virginia? Will they go play overseas? Stay and play for the Wildcats? This is going to get very interesting.

Good and Bad for the Blazers

With the Blazers it always seems like a good news/bad news situation. Or just a bad news situation. Right now it is the former. On the good side of the ledger is the fact that Brandon Roy is an absolute stud and gets better seemingly every night. On the bad side is the recent news that Lamarcus Aldridge might have a heart condition. Two awesome rookies mined from the same weak draft class - one piece of good news, one piece of bad.

The same is true of the upcoming NBA Draft. Currently projected to land the 7th pick, Portland had some great news in the fact that Corey Brewer is an absolutely perfect fit for their current roster. Then they got some bad news when Brewer decided to make the Final Four his personal coming out party. Now there is a real chance that Brewer could go somewhere between picks 3-and-6 and leave the Blazers holding the bag. And while there are certainly consolation prizes to be had in such a deep draft, there isn't another player after Oden/Durant that could help Portland with what seems to be an inevitable run at the playoffs next year as much as Brewer. If Aldridge is healthy and allowed to bloom next to Randolph, and if Roy continues to evolve, Portland will be a sleeper in the West. However, they are still one piece away - a swingman who can defend, attack off the dribble, and hit outside shots. In other words, Corey Brewer. Guys like Brandan Wright, Al Horford, and Yi Jianlian are all potential stars, but they would be buried behind the Blazers' front court depth.

Perhaps if Jeff Green declares for the draft, that news would push things back over to the good news side of the ledger, as Portland coujld be relatively confident that either Green or Brewer would make it to them at #7.

Of course, they will have to get my non-tanking, hard-nose favorite player Brandon Roy to stop carrying them to victory, lest they fall any further down the draft lottery.

Better Get This Done

As long as the Insider column has a pulse, I should probably get some MLB picks out there. That way, as always, I can point to them should they turn out to be correct. This is going to be quick and completely lack effort. You've been warned.

American League

West
1. Anaheim
2. Oakland
3. Texas
4. Seattle
Bonus: Mike Hargrove will be the first manager fired in the bigs this year

Central
1. Cleveland
2. Minnesota (wild card)
3. Detroit
4. Chicago
5. Kansas City
Bonus: The White Sox, once rich with starters, will have to deal for an extra arm or two

East
1. Boston
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Baltimore
5. Tampa Bay
Bonus: One of Tampa Bay's crazy outfielders will get suspended for at least five games

MVP: Grady Sizemore
Cy Young: Johan Santana
Rookie of the Year: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Breakout Star: Nick Markaksis
Bust: Gary Sheffield
Manager of the Year: Eric Wedge

Playoffs
Minnesota over Boston in 6
Cleveland over Anaheim in 5
Cleveland over Minnesota in 6

National League

West
1. Los Angeles
2. San Francisco
3. San Diego
4. Arizona
5. Colorado
Bonus: Bonds hits 33 home runs and then his head pops right off his neck

Central
1. Chicago
2. St. Louis
3. Houston
4. Milwaukee
5. Pittsburgh
Bonus: Ted "My GM signed me while having an angioplasty" Lilly wins 18 games

East
1. New York
2. Philadelphia (wild card)
3. Atlanta
4. Florida
5. Washington
Bonus: Miguel Cabrera retakes the lead from David Wright in the "Best Young NL 3B" race

MVP: Jose Reyes
Cy Young: Cole Hamels
Rookie of the Year: Homer Bailey
Breakout Star: Rickie Weeks
Bust: Carlos Lee
Manager of the Year: Lou Pinella

Playoffs
New York over Chicago in 7
Philadelphia over Los Angeles in 5
New York over Philadelphia in 6

World Series
New York over Cleveland in 6
MVP: Carlos Delgado

These Refs Suck

I figured I would put it in simple terms. Is anyone else getting tired of the officials dictating the games? Enough already. Today in the first regional final, Ohio State was given the game on a silver platter when the officials decided to suddenly call two different games - one for each end of the floor. The worst part is that once again, the egregious officiating will go overlooked by the mainstream media, because it came in the middle of the second half rather than right at the end of the game. Sportswriters are pretty obvious creatures, so unless a ref blows the final call of the game, they won't pick up on it. But go back and watch this thing on your TiVo's. This was a back-and-forth game until about nine minutes left in the contest. It was at this point that the refs suddenly started calling every little touch foul on Memphis (including a truly terrible call on Joey Dorsey on a rebound) while swallowing their whistles at the other end as Memphis players were being knocked down and hacked with nary a call. All you can ever really ask for is consistency from the refs (if your expectations are higher than that, you are in for many disappointments), but in this game they didn't even come close. It was literally as if they had two different crews at each end of the court. I don't blame Coach Cal for looking forlorn late in the game - they were going 5-on-8 out there.

And as always, the imprint made on the game by the refs takes away from the players. Conley was amazing, Oden showed a real spark, and both Butler and Lewis hit ridiculous threes. But it is hard to appreciate that when one team is allowed to foul as a means of playing defense and the other is not. I am so sick of this.

(By the way, how was Chris Douglas-Roberts foul on Oden today an intentional, while Oden's foul against Xavier was not? That was the play that took Ohio State from a 60-59 deficit to a 62-60 lead and turned the game around. Pretty ironic, no?)

Underdogs Outlined in Chalk

Like my ESPN-esque, pun-tastic headline? It's only fitting to use something cheesy and generic for this post, since it will become a generic story real quick. That said, it is worth mentioning that this tournament is going chalk in a way that I can't recall ever seeing. Oregon is the only team in the Elite Eight that isn't a 1 or 2 seed, and they are a 3 and were considered to be better than Wisconsin by most people anyway. It seems that no matter how far down a top seed gets, they find a way to win. Ohio State and North Carolina were down by huge scores, Georgetown needed a miracle shot (and no call) to advance, and Kansas and Florida nearly narrowly survived against mid majors. This might be the most truly mad tournament of all. And while none of the top seeds have any easy game this weekend, it seems possible that all of them could advance to the Final Four for the first time in the 64-team era. And this just one year after George Mason was dancing. Madness indeed!

(This message has been brought to you by Tajuan Porter is Sick and Associates.)

Thanks, Guys (You Too, Refs)

Someone get Tyler Hansbrough a box of stationary because he's got a lot of thank you notes to write. Completely outclassed by freshman Taj Gibson on Friday night, Hansbrough lived to play another day only because his teammates bailed him out and the refs protected him like he was that pregnant girl in Children of Men. The series of foul calls on Gibson early in the second half were an absolute joke and they completely altered the game. You can say the USC was worn down or the UNC turned it on or that Brandon Wright was a beast, and all those things are true. But the biggest reason North Carolina came from 16 down to beat the Trojans is that Gibson had to go to the bench with four fouls midway through the second half. Period. End of story.

Not only is this the reason I hate the five-foul limit in college hoops, but it was also a prime example of the refs dominating the game below the radar. Because Gibson's fourth foul wasn't a terrible call, nobody really noticed how bad USC got screwed. You have to go back to the previous call to get the full effect, as Gibson was whistled for #3 on a total phantom foul. It was a situation in which Hansborough was looking as clumsy as ever and the refs bailed him out. If this sounds familiar it is because it happened about 4,000 times this year. I've never seen a college player with such mediocre skills get protected like this. Well, except for half the guys that played for Duke in the last 25 years, but other than that ...

Anyway, it was a shame. I would have liked to have seen what the Heels could have done against USC's full compliment of players, rather than a bunch of stiffs in the post and then a version of Gibson that was a passive shell of his former self. No wonder they had like 25 second chance points down the stretch.

(By the way, it seems that Tim Floyd's frustrations from today's PTI interview carried over to the game as he effectively ended the contest with a hilarious notecard tossing incident that resulted in a technical foul and one of Billy Packer's patented tongue lashings. High comedy.)

(Last thing: I know it seems odd to discuss the zebras and not mention Jeff Green's Traveling Willbury's move, but my belief is that he was hammered on that play anyway. Yes, he traveled, but he also should have been shooting free throws. So it's a draw.)

Butler-Florida: In the Year 2000

Given that there were 422,119 stories about UCLA's Ben Howland and Pitt's Jamie Dixon this week (capped off with a truly horrific basketball game between the two teams), I was surprised that more people weren't tackling the Butler-Florida angle. Specifically that the two teams played an epic contest back in "the year 2000" (you have to say it like the old Conan O'Brien sketch to get the proper effect).

Consider the following:

- It was a classic 5-12 matchup in a year in which all the five seeds won (the first time that had happened in over a decade and the last time it happened until this year).

- Butler nearly had a victory against a more talented Florida team.

- Mike Miller hit a buzzer beater to lift the Gators to victory; a shot that was arguably the most memorable in school history, up to and including last year's title run.

- Florida used that win to propel themselves on a fabulous tourney run that included an upset of top-seeded Duke in the regional semis and an appearance in the national title game.

If you ask me, that makes the 2000 Florida-Butler matchup arguably one of the five best and most important first round games of the last decade. And here they are playing each other again, under similar circumstances (the perceived talent disparity, the chance for Butler to preempt a deep Florida run), and nobody even mentions it! Sometimes I just don't quite understand the sports media.

Kansas' Fate: In the Hands of Zebras

This will be a rare quick post. I just wanted to go on record as saying that Kansas' Final Four and title hopes rest squarely in the hands of the three officials. Who these men are appears to be a state secret, as I can't find the information anywhere on the World Wide Web (please get on that, Al Gore). But whoever it is, they control the outcome of the game. That is because UCLA plays a simple style of basketball: absolutely foul as much as the refs will allow. Southern Illinois employs the same strategy and were able to play like a squad full of hockey goons on Thursday night. If the SEC crew from that game is back on Saturday, the Jayhawks are probably done. You see, when a skilled team is allowed to move and cut and shoot and, you know, PLAY basketball, they usually prevail. But when the hacks they are playing against get away with damn near assault and battery on the court, then all bets are off. I don't even really like Kansas that much, but I'm sick and tired of seeing lesser teams prevail just because they turn the game into a rugby match. So we should probably all be hoping that we get some decent refs for tomorrow's game. At least, that's what Kansas should be hoping.

Tim Floyd Hearts OJ Mayo: A PTI Thriller

Not only did Mike Tirico fill in admirably today on Pardon The Interruption (normally PTI is unwatchable if either Tony or Wilbon are missing), but we had some hot interview action with USC's Tim Floyd. It seemed a little odd that Floyd would submit to an interview on the day of a regional semifinal, but about halfway through the "five good minutes," it became clear why he would do so: my man had a bone to pick.

On Wednesday, Tony and Wilbon discussed the latest OJ Mayo "controversy" which occurred when Mayo threw the ball to himself off the backboard, dunked it, and then unleashed a jai alai-esque ball toss into the stands. He was then ejected, but still managed to parade around for a few minutes, soaking up the adoration of the crowd. Oh yeah, and he went for 41-11-10 as his Huntington HS team won its third straight state title, clinched the mythical national title, and finished the year 41-1. But I digress. Anyway, Wilbon in particular was all over Mayo for his behavior and Floyd for recruiting him (particularly the part about Mayo not giving out his cell phone number). I thought it was a little harsh, especially when you consider how incredibly aggressive the media has been in painting Mayo as an uber villain (the infamous referee head butt was nothing but a hilarious and shameful acting job on the part of the ref - a guy who should absolutely be mocked at the same level as that weeping judge from the Howard K. Stern hearings). That said, we all know that Wilbon is a sports moralist and a bit old school and to be honest, I almost always agree with him.

One person who didn't agree with him on this one? Tim Floyd. The former laughingstock of the NBA (what is it with USC being able to turn crappy pro coaches into college geniuses? First Pete Carroll and now Floyd) was all kinds of fired up today. He tolerated questions about North Carolina with a modicum of charm, praised his players, and even gave a nod to Henry Bibby. But the minute that Mayo came up, he turned into a cold-blooded killer. He ripped Wilbon even though he wasn't even there. He argued with Tony. He got up on his soapbox and rambled about four minutes past the interview cutoff point. It was remarkable.

And what struck me about the whole thing is that he really meant it. This wasn't just a guy trying to set the record straight or looking to put a positive spin on things; Floyd was honestly pissed off. He clearly sees Mayo as a kid that has been victimized by the adults in his life and vilified by the hypocritical media and he was out to defend him. He barely knows the guy, yet he displayed the kind of righteous anger that would normally be reserved for a fifth year senior or a blood relative.

The whole thing was so abnormal (PTI interviews are normally pithy, humorous and certainly never double the allotted time) that it left me reeling. Is Tony secretly seething inside? Is Wilbon now on a warpath? Is Tirico looking to get away from the set as quickly as possible? Finally, is OJ Mayo actually one of the "good guys"? I have many questions and I can't wait to get the answers.

Great stuff.

Gotta Love Memphis

Normally when one of my tourney favorites is dispatched, I find myself hating the team that eliminated them. But when Texas A&M (my title game pick and home to tourney favorite Acie Law) lost a heartbreaker to Memphis last night, I found myself strangely happy for the Tigers. Some theories on how this could happen:

1. Residual from last year's tourney when I had Memphis going to the Final Four and rooted passionately for them to beat UCLA in the regional final.

2. Respect for the way they handled their business in front of a frothing, partisan crowd in San Antonio. That was like playing a road game in the Pit back in the late 90's.

3. Admiration for the way that Antonio Anderson shook off a 1-4 day at the line (and the knowledge that he was a 64% shooter) to calmly drain a pair of free throws to win the game.

4. The knowledge that in 48 hours, the Tigers would be playing the insanely lucky Ohio State Buckeyes. Kind of a "hey, I'm going to be rooting for them in two days anyway" argument.

5. The fact that they run the Vance Walberg AASAA (attack, attack, skip pass, attack, attack) offense. Walberg is the current coach at my alma mater Pepperdine University, so there is a bonus point right there. But more than that, this is exciting basketball. It's not "foul as often as possible because the refs can't call them all," which is the popular strategy being employed by UCLA, Pitt, Wisconsin, Miami of Ohio, Southern Illinois (the refs allowed the Salukis to turn that Kansas game into a schoolyard brawl - that was NOT basketball), and others. Texas A&M was one of the few "defensive" clubs that actually played honest defense, which is why I liked them so much. But the brand of ball Memphis plays is thrilling. And while they are a shooter or two short on the perimeter, they run, they finish, they try wild forays into the lane. It's good stuff. A Memphis-Tennessee game would have blown the lid off of the gym. Alas (see #4).

6. Mid-Major power. I loved UNLV back in the day and I love Memphis now for the way they shed any labels that experts try to put on them because of conference affiliation. When are we finally going to learn that while conference affiliation may play a role in preparation (quality of the competition), it has nothing to do with the talent level of the team. This was a big, fat "suck it" to the power conferences, and especially to the Big East (the conference that decimated Conference USA).

7. The anticipation of things to come. As noted in my previous post, I think Derrick Rose is going to be something special next year and that Memphis will have a shot at going undefeated. So jumping on the bandwagon now makes a lot of sense.

All that to say: Memphis, I forgive you for beating my Aggies, and you have my full support going forward.

Go Tigers.

2007-08 Top 25

Is it ridiculous to pick a college hoops top 25 for next season while this one is going on? Yes. But since I know that Dickie V is going to be screaming out his pick for next year the moment the nets are cut, I figured I should get out in front of this. Plus, it is low risk/high reward. If my picks are way off, I just leave the post buried. But if they are right on? Well, then I can trot this thing out over and over. Hey, at least I'm honest.

The hardest thing about picking this sort of thing is knowing who is coming back and who isn't. I've made some guesses and assumptions when needed, but I'm focusing on teams who will be good either way. And even though Oden and Durant both sound like kids who want to stay in college (and really who doesn't want to stay in college after a fun freshman year?), I believe they will both wind up in the league.

1. Kansas Julian Wright is probably gone and Brandon Rush might follow him out the door, but a team with Mario Chalmers, Sherron Collins, Darrell Arthur, and Sasha Kahn is still a terrific core. Not only that, but Rush might need to stay to boost his draft stock and Wright has said he wants to stay a third year and get his degree. Either way, KU is going to be loaded.

2. Memphis I know this seems a little crazy, but I honestly think Memphis can make a run at going undefeated next year. With most of their best players returning and the addition of absolute stud point guard Derrick Rose, the Tigers could resemble the old UNLV teams that used to rank #1 coming out of the Big West.

3. North Carolina If everyone was coming back, I would probably put them at #2, right behind Kansas. But Hansborough might be gone and Brandon Wright is sure to be in the rookie-sophomore game a year from now. That said, Lawson will probably be back (unless he keeps playing like he has been in the tourney - he might play his way right out of Chapel Hill) and Wayne Ellington could emerge as a monster scorer next year.

4. USC I know O.J. Mayo is equal parts crazy prima donna and media punching bag, but right now he plans on playing his freshman year in L.A. And the guy is sick, make no mistake. Plus, while Nick Young is probably a lottery pick, Tim Floyd is getting back Gabe Pruitt, Taj Gibson, and a host of solid role players. The Trojans are suddenly quite good at basketball. Other than brief flares during the Harold Minor and Sam Clancy eras, this is the first time SC has been a basketball power since Paul Westphal played there.

5. Kansas State From left out to top five? Believe it. Not only do the Wildcats have the right coach in Huggins, but he also has a host of freakish athletes committed to playing for him. This team will be incredibly talented next year, led by possible 2008 #1 pick Michael Beasely and sophomore swingman Bill Walker (who looked great in his six games before hurting his knee).

6. UCLA I hate their style of play, but the Bruins are going to be good for quite a while, especially with Darren Collison coming back and stud power forward Kevin Love coming in. If nothing else, the battle for LA is going to be intense.

7. Indiana Kelvin Sampson should have his program in full swing next year and D.J. White will have matured a bit. However, the real reason I have the Hoosiers this high is because they have frosh Eric Gordon coming in next year. He's not the NBA prospect that some other high school stars are (a Ben Gordon-esque 6'2" combo guard, so kind of a tweener right now), but this guy was born to play college basketball. He is going to be AWESOME.

8. Louisville Between many Big East powers looking at a down year and the Cardinals coming of age this winter, I think Louisville stands to be the class of the conference next year. Edgar Sosa will only learn from the tough finish to his amazing game (seriously, the guy was 22-for-22 on field goals and free throws before missing three straight shots. 22-for-22!) and Derrick Caracter should be a legit post option by next year, with Palacios rebounding like a madman.

9. Georgia Tech They probably won't make this big of a leap next year, but if Young and Crittenton come back, I expect the Jackets to take a huge step forward. They should challenge UNC for the ACC crown.

10. Mississippi State There is room for a new top team in the SEC with Florida going into reloading mode. Most probably have Tennessee filling this spot, but if you saw the Bulldogs play in the NIT, you know what I'm talking about. They are going to be good. Jamont Gordon is a legit All-American candidate.

The Next 15:
11. Arizona (I know they looked like crap this year and that I've loaded this list with Pac-10 teams, but Zona will have Budinger, Jordan Hill, and Marcus Williams coming back, with new stud point guard Jerryd Bayless at the controls)
12. UConn (they are closer than people think)
13. Ohio State (no Oden, but plenty of talent coming back)
14. Maryland
15. Virginia Commonwealth (no, seriously),
16. Florida (I know they can reload, but top 10 is asking a bit much)
17. Tennessee
18. Duke
19. Georgetown (Green and maybe Hibbert are gone, but Summers is back)
20. Washington (the Huskies are going to grow up fast next year)
21. Nevada (the Pack still has Sessions and Kemp)
22. Pittsburgh
23. Michigan State
24. Oregon (Porter, Taylor, and Hairston are back, but the loss of Brooks is huge)
25(tie). Arkansas and Texas

Ohio State: Team of Destiny or Team Destined to Lose?

Warning: This is going to be a long blog post.

Over at WIS I examined Oregon’s first round escape against Miami of Ohio in light of recent trends. Here on the blog (why on the blog? Because I am driving my editors crazy with the overload of March Madness columns) we are going to look at second round nail biters and what they mean to a team going forward. Once again, the question is this: is a close win more likely to propel a top team to a title run, or reveal them as flawed and doomed?

It seems appropriate to shift this analysis to second round games involving higher seeded teams (top seeds are narrowed from 1-5 seeds to 1-4 seeds) because this has already been the Year of the Favorites in the NCAA Tournament. When VCU was vanquished by Pitt in an overtime thriller and Winthrop was pummeled by Oregon, the last of the Cinderellas were gone … and the tournament was only 96 hours old.

That said, the arguments for parity in college hoops really didn’t take too much of a hit. Other than Kansas, all the top seeds had a difficult time advancing past the second round and popular Final Four picks like Georgetown, Texas A&M, and UCLA all survived harrowing contests over the weekend. Heck, you could have swapped the seeds for Wisconsin and UNLV and no one would have known the difference. Just because the favorites often survived doesn’t mean the games – and the teams – weren’t close.

No greater example of that can be found than the Ohio State-Xavier game. The Buckeyes were outplayed by the Musketeers and only won after receiving the Golden Sombrero of College Basketball Luck: Bad Call, Missed Free Throw, Bad Coaching, and Miracle Three. Without that exact sequence (all in 10 seconds), Ohio State is done.

No sooner had the final horn sounded when approximately 7,422 sportswriters were all online, arguing that Ohio State’s scare was the best thing that could have happened to them. True statement? As with Oregon and first round scares, we are going to take a look at the close second round games involving top seeds this decade. Using the five points or less (or overtime) as the measure for a close game and looking at 1-4 seeds, we can look to 17 such games played over the past seven seasons.

Sweet 16 Losers

As with first round teams, top seeds that squeak out second round games often go down in flames the very next time out; in this case, the loss comes in the Sweet 16 round. Of the 17 teams that survived close second round contests, eight of them lost in the regional semis.

2000 - (1) Duke edged (8) Kansas in round two before losing to (5) Florida
2000 - (4) Syracuse beat (5) Kentucky before getting drilled by (1) MSU
2000 - (4) Tennessee defeated (5) UConn and then lost to (8) North Carolina
2000 - (4) LSU snuck past (5) Texas before being crushed by (8) Wisconsin
2001 - (3) Ole Miss defeated (6) Notre Dame and then lost to (2) Arizona
2002 - (4) Kentucky edged (12) Tulsa and then was bounced by (5) Maryland
2004 - (3) Pittsburgh beat (6) Wisconsin before losing to (2) Oklahoma State
2004 - (3) Texas defeated (6) UNC and then lost to (7) Xavier

The list above shows that just under half the second round survivors were immediately knocked off in the Sweet 16, but the other nine were able to advance. So far, this gives Ohio State just over a 50% chance of getting past Tennessee. But what about the rest of the tournament?

Ability to Advance

In the column about Oregon, we saw that a top seed that survives a first round scare and then wins in the Sweet 16 tends to go all the way to the Final Four. Granted, only five of the 27 qualifying teams even made it past the Sweet 16, but all five of those advanced out of the region. The opposite effect seems to occur with teams surviving second round scares.

Of the nine teams in this decade that snuck by in round two and then won against in the Sweet 16, only three of them managed to win the regional final. They are:

2004 - (3) Georgia Tech (title game)
2006 - (2) UCLA (title game)
2006 - (4) LSU (final four)

As for the six teams that reached the Elite Eight, only to lose, the list reads like this:

2002 - (2) UConn and (2) Oregon
2003 - (1) Arizona
2004 - (1) St. Joes’s
2006 - (1) Villanova and (1) UConn

These two lists tell a pretty interesting story. For starters, we arrive at an interesting breakdown when looking at various seeds. Here are some key records:

Sweet 16 Games
(1) 4-1
(2) 3-0
(3) 1-3
(4) 1-4

Elite Eight Games
(1) 0-4
(2) 1-2
(3) 1-0
(4) 1-0

Here, as with the research in the Oregon column, we see that the higher seeds tend to fare better in the Sweet 16. However, beyond that, seeding doesn’t seem to help at all, and if anything, lower seeded teams tend to do better. The lone 3 and 4 seeds both gained more momentum as the tournament unfolded, while the top seeds couldn’t get it revved up. This seems to indicate that the 1 seeds that barely survive in the early rounds are unlikely to get things figured out as they go along. Given this information, recent history suggests that Ohio State, as a top seed, has an 80% chance of defeating Tennessee, but almost no shot of beating the winner of the A&M/Memphis game.

Quality of Opponents

It is also helpful to look at the quality of the teams these survivors are facing as opponents. Since we are assuming probable success for Ohio State in the next round, let’s look at the Elite Eight winners and losers and see who they had to play.

Winners:
2004 - (3) Georgia Tech over (4) Kansas
2006 - (2) UCLA over (1) Memphis
2006 - (4) LSU over (2) Texas

Losers:
2002 - (2) UConn lost to (1) Maryland
2002 - (2) Oregon lost to (1) Kansas
2003 - (1) Arizona lost to (2) Kansas
2004 - (1) St. Joes’s lost to (2) Oklahoma State
2006 - (1) Villanova lost to (3) Florida
2006 - (1) UConn lost to (11) George Mason

Until last year, the Elite Eight losers were being defeated by the highest possible seed they could face in that game, but then Nova and UConn both went down to lower seeds. Meanwhile, among winners, only Georgia Tech got to play against a lower seed than expected. On average, winners have defeated a seed of 2.33, while losers have been defeated by a seed of 3.33. Even if you took out the George Mason game, the 1.80 seed average faced by the previous five losers still doesn’t indicate that big of a difference in the level of competition, This is particularly true when you note that all three of the winning teams also beat the highest possible seed in the Sweet 16 round.

Impact on Top Seeds

Since the level of seeding doesn’t seem to matter much – and since Ohio State will be playing either a 2 or 3 seed anyway – we have no choice but to rely on the raw data above: that 1 seeds typically don’t recover from a shaky early round game. When you consider that no top seed has had a win of less than five points in this decade, the above data represents all of the “close” wins on the first weekend. One, Duke in 2000, lost in the Sweet 16, and the other four all lost in the Elite Eight.

In fact, even if you go back further to include a larger sample size, top seeds don’t fare much better. Only one top seed from the last 20 years has won a close game during the opening two rounds and gone on to win it all – UCLA in 1995. It was that game, featuring the famous Tyus Edney shot, that I believe causes people to buy in to the mythology that “a bunch” of number one seeds have survived an early scare only to go on to a title. Going back to 1986, we find 12 additional top seeds that survived such a scare; 10 teams had their brush with disaster in the second round, one in the first, and one (Michigan State in 1990) in both. Of those 12, only UCLA won it all, while Michigan (1993) and Kentucky (1997) reached the title game and UMass (1996) and North Carolina (1998) reached the Final Four. Three teams lost in the Elite Eight and four lost in the Sweet 16.

Therefore, folding in the last 20 years, here is how top seeds have fared after dodging a close one during the opening weekend:

Sweet 16
12-5

Elite Eight
5-7

Final Four
3-2

Title Game
1-2

Even if we give Ohio State the benefit of the doubt by going back further in history, they still seem to face difficult odds. While they have a 71% chance of winning their next game, the Buckeyes historically have only a 29% chance of reaching the Final Four, and a 6% chance of winning it all. And considering that this decade features more parity than ever before, you have to believe that the more recent trends (80%/0%/0%) will hold even stronger, which means that Ohio State's odds are probably 75%, 20%, and 5%, or something along those lines. You will note that the Buckeyes' odds of winning based on this analysis are actually lower than the odds of them winning based simply on the number of teams remaining. As one of four left in the South region they have a 25% chance of reaching the Final Four and as one of 16 in the field, they have just over a 6% shot of winning it all.

Ohio State’s lucky win over Xavier might have seemed like destiny and brought back memories of UCLA in 1995, but according to the record books, the Bruins are the only top seed that Ohio State is going to want to compare themselves too. It is far more likely that the Buckeyes will wind up like one of the other 16 on that list and come up short of a national title.

Based on the research, a narrow win in an early round is not a stroke of good fortune on the paved path to a title, but rather the first glimpse of fatal flaws soon to be exposed.

Of course, that shouldn’t stop Ohio State from trying. After all, there is a second time for everything.

Tourney Challenge Update: Through Two Rounds

Another tourney challenge, another beating on the way for yours truly. Despite assembling a bracket through careful calculations (primarly seeding trends and point differentials), I opted to use my "gut instinct" picks to compete against my brother Drew. Big mistake. Through two rounds he is already putting great distance between us, leading 183 to 158.

There is a lot to dislike about my bracket, but I will focus on Gonzaga, Nevada, and Illinois. I thought the Zags were going to return to their double-digit seed glory of yesteryear, but unfortunately, as Rick Patino would say, "Matt Santangelo was not walking through that door!" The Zags played horrendous basketball against Indiana (who then played horrendous basketball against UCLA) and my big Elite Eight upset pick was toast. I also overestimated Nick Fazekas' ability to not be a big wuss, so my Nevada-over-Memphis pick backfired. Finally, my 5-12 analysis tool assured me that Illinois was a lock against Virginia Tech, but apparently the tool only works for the first 35 minutes of games. The Hokies did indeed suck, but Illinois found a way to blow a 12-point lead (in a game with barely 100 total points!) in the final moments. Just brutal.

Of course, it isn't all roses for Drew either. He had North Carolina going out early and Texas going to the Elite Eight, so the top half of his East region is decimated. Since I knew Rick Barnes would crush the Horns, I still have UNC alive, which could help me gain ground if they can knock off USC. Other than that, he is looking pretty good. Since we both have Georgetown, Oregon, and Kansas in the final four, my only hope is that Texas A&M comes out of the South. Should be interesting.

"The Next George Mason?" Don't Bother Looking

It seems people are spending an inordinate amount of time looking for another double-digit seed to go to the Final Four, as if Mason's improbabe run last year was the start of some sort of trend. This is lunacy. It was a once in a generation experience and we shouldn't be sullying it by assuming it can be replicated. As my man G.O.B. from Arrested Development used to say, "Come on!"

(Man do I miss that show.)

Anyway, my suggestion is to scale things back a bit and start looking for the next Bradley instead. The Braves made a huge splash in last year's tourney by advancing to the Sweet 16 and ruining the seasons of Kansas, Pitt, and Golden State (who fell hook, line, and sinker for Patrick O'Bryant) in the process. Folks are keying in on teams like Winthrop because they have some Mason, deep-tourney-run qualities, but this is fool's gold. Taking WInthrop to the Elite Eight ignores the fact that they are looking at first and second round matchups with Notre Dame and Oregon, respectively. Those two teams just happen to be two of the best shooting and scoring squads in the country. You like Winthrop to beat both of them? Hey, more power to you.

You are far better off looking for an 11-14 seed in a bracket with some overachieving teams that can be beat as long as the underdog just plays well, or some overrated teams that have no real advantage despite their higher seed. Based on these factors, I am intruiged by Davidson (but am picking Maryland), like the chances of either Wright State or VCU coming out of that Duke/Pitt debacle in Buffalo (but am avoiding it, since I don't know which underdog to back), and also think Long Beach State has the chance to win a couple of games.

However, my pick for "The Next Bradley" is Oral Roberts. I went to Allen Fieldhouse earlier this year and watched this team beat down Kansas and I remember taking note of what a great tournament team they would be. They have a star interior player in Caleb Green that can carry teams several rounds. He can score, pass, get to the line, you name it. Plus, while Oral Roberts' guards are a bit streaky and careless with the ball, they have a lot of team speed and some guys with serious stones. Ken Tutt, in particular (I like to call him King Tutt) is the type of guy that can shake off a 1-for-12 game to make a tying three as time expires.

Not only do I like what ORU is bringing to the table, but I also like where they are seeded. No disrespect to Singing Tony Bennett and his Washington State Cougars, but I watched this team play four games in the past two weeks and they are NOT a three seed. In fact, if you switched their jerseys, people wouldn't be able to tell which team was the 3 and which was the 14. I'm not saying WSU is a mortal lock to lose, just that if they don't play really well, they probably will. And if Oral Roberts gets by WSU they will face either an overrated Vandy team or an undisciplined George Washington squad. Either matchup looks pretty ideal for the Golden Eagles.

But that's just me. If you like VCU or Stanford or even Winthrop, I can see that. Just make sure you are looking for good, old fashioned Sweet 16 Cinderellas, rather than a one-in-a-lifetime underdog.