These Refs Suck

I figured I would put it in simple terms. Is anyone else getting tired of the officials dictating the games? Enough already. Today in the first regional final, Ohio State was given the game on a silver platter when the officials decided to suddenly call two different games - one for each end of the floor. The worst part is that once again, the egregious officiating will go overlooked by the mainstream media, because it came in the middle of the second half rather than right at the end of the game. Sportswriters are pretty obvious creatures, so unless a ref blows the final call of the game, they won't pick up on it. But go back and watch this thing on your TiVo's. This was a back-and-forth game until about nine minutes left in the contest. It was at this point that the refs suddenly started calling every little touch foul on Memphis (including a truly terrible call on Joey Dorsey on a rebound) while swallowing their whistles at the other end as Memphis players were being knocked down and hacked with nary a call. All you can ever really ask for is consistency from the refs (if your expectations are higher than that, you are in for many disappointments), but in this game they didn't even come close. It was literally as if they had two different crews at each end of the court. I don't blame Coach Cal for looking forlorn late in the game - they were going 5-on-8 out there.

And as always, the imprint made on the game by the refs takes away from the players. Conley was amazing, Oden showed a real spark, and both Butler and Lewis hit ridiculous threes. But it is hard to appreciate that when one team is allowed to foul as a means of playing defense and the other is not. I am so sick of this.

(By the way, how was Chris Douglas-Roberts foul on Oden today an intentional, while Oden's foul against Xavier was not? That was the play that took Ohio State from a 60-59 deficit to a 62-60 lead and turned the game around. Pretty ironic, no?)

Underdogs Outlined in Chalk

Like my ESPN-esque, pun-tastic headline? It's only fitting to use something cheesy and generic for this post, since it will become a generic story real quick. That said, it is worth mentioning that this tournament is going chalk in a way that I can't recall ever seeing. Oregon is the only team in the Elite Eight that isn't a 1 or 2 seed, and they are a 3 and were considered to be better than Wisconsin by most people anyway. It seems that no matter how far down a top seed gets, they find a way to win. Ohio State and North Carolina were down by huge scores, Georgetown needed a miracle shot (and no call) to advance, and Kansas and Florida nearly narrowly survived against mid majors. This might be the most truly mad tournament of all. And while none of the top seeds have any easy game this weekend, it seems possible that all of them could advance to the Final Four for the first time in the 64-team era. And this just one year after George Mason was dancing. Madness indeed!

(This message has been brought to you by Tajuan Porter is Sick and Associates.)

Thanks, Guys (You Too, Refs)

Someone get Tyler Hansbrough a box of stationary because he's got a lot of thank you notes to write. Completely outclassed by freshman Taj Gibson on Friday night, Hansbrough lived to play another day only because his teammates bailed him out and the refs protected him like he was that pregnant girl in Children of Men. The series of foul calls on Gibson early in the second half were an absolute joke and they completely altered the game. You can say the USC was worn down or the UNC turned it on or that Brandon Wright was a beast, and all those things are true. But the biggest reason North Carolina came from 16 down to beat the Trojans is that Gibson had to go to the bench with four fouls midway through the second half. Period. End of story.

Not only is this the reason I hate the five-foul limit in college hoops, but it was also a prime example of the refs dominating the game below the radar. Because Gibson's fourth foul wasn't a terrible call, nobody really noticed how bad USC got screwed. You have to go back to the previous call to get the full effect, as Gibson was whistled for #3 on a total phantom foul. It was a situation in which Hansborough was looking as clumsy as ever and the refs bailed him out. If this sounds familiar it is because it happened about 4,000 times this year. I've never seen a college player with such mediocre skills get protected like this. Well, except for half the guys that played for Duke in the last 25 years, but other than that ...

Anyway, it was a shame. I would have liked to have seen what the Heels could have done against USC's full compliment of players, rather than a bunch of stiffs in the post and then a version of Gibson that was a passive shell of his former self. No wonder they had like 25 second chance points down the stretch.

(By the way, it seems that Tim Floyd's frustrations from today's PTI interview carried over to the game as he effectively ended the contest with a hilarious notecard tossing incident that resulted in a technical foul and one of Billy Packer's patented tongue lashings. High comedy.)

(Last thing: I know it seems odd to discuss the zebras and not mention Jeff Green's Traveling Willbury's move, but my belief is that he was hammered on that play anyway. Yes, he traveled, but he also should have been shooting free throws. So it's a draw.)

Butler-Florida: In the Year 2000

Given that there were 422,119 stories about UCLA's Ben Howland and Pitt's Jamie Dixon this week (capped off with a truly horrific basketball game between the two teams), I was surprised that more people weren't tackling the Butler-Florida angle. Specifically that the two teams played an epic contest back in "the year 2000" (you have to say it like the old Conan O'Brien sketch to get the proper effect).

Consider the following:

- It was a classic 5-12 matchup in a year in which all the five seeds won (the first time that had happened in over a decade and the last time it happened until this year).

- Butler nearly had a victory against a more talented Florida team.

- Mike Miller hit a buzzer beater to lift the Gators to victory; a shot that was arguably the most memorable in school history, up to and including last year's title run.

- Florida used that win to propel themselves on a fabulous tourney run that included an upset of top-seeded Duke in the regional semis and an appearance in the national title game.

If you ask me, that makes the 2000 Florida-Butler matchup arguably one of the five best and most important first round games of the last decade. And here they are playing each other again, under similar circumstances (the perceived talent disparity, the chance for Butler to preempt a deep Florida run), and nobody even mentions it! Sometimes I just don't quite understand the sports media.

Kansas' Fate: In the Hands of Zebras

This will be a rare quick post. I just wanted to go on record as saying that Kansas' Final Four and title hopes rest squarely in the hands of the three officials. Who these men are appears to be a state secret, as I can't find the information anywhere on the World Wide Web (please get on that, Al Gore). But whoever it is, they control the outcome of the game. That is because UCLA plays a simple style of basketball: absolutely foul as much as the refs will allow. Southern Illinois employs the same strategy and were able to play like a squad full of hockey goons on Thursday night. If the SEC crew from that game is back on Saturday, the Jayhawks are probably done. You see, when a skilled team is allowed to move and cut and shoot and, you know, PLAY basketball, they usually prevail. But when the hacks they are playing against get away with damn near assault and battery on the court, then all bets are off. I don't even really like Kansas that much, but I'm sick and tired of seeing lesser teams prevail just because they turn the game into a rugby match. So we should probably all be hoping that we get some decent refs for tomorrow's game. At least, that's what Kansas should be hoping.

Gotta Love Memphis

Normally when one of my tourney favorites is dispatched, I find myself hating the team that eliminated them. But when Texas A&M (my title game pick and home to tourney favorite Acie Law) lost a heartbreaker to Memphis last night, I found myself strangely happy for the Tigers. Some theories on how this could happen:

1. Residual from last year's tourney when I had Memphis going to the Final Four and rooted passionately for them to beat UCLA in the regional final.

2. Respect for the way they handled their business in front of a frothing, partisan crowd in San Antonio. That was like playing a road game in the Pit back in the late 90's.

3. Admiration for the way that Antonio Anderson shook off a 1-4 day at the line (and the knowledge that he was a 64% shooter) to calmly drain a pair of free throws to win the game.

4. The knowledge that in 48 hours, the Tigers would be playing the insanely lucky Ohio State Buckeyes. Kind of a "hey, I'm going to be rooting for them in two days anyway" argument.

5. The fact that they run the Vance Walberg AASAA (attack, attack, skip pass, attack, attack) offense. Walberg is the current coach at my alma mater Pepperdine University, so there is a bonus point right there. But more than that, this is exciting basketball. It's not "foul as often as possible because the refs can't call them all," which is the popular strategy being employed by UCLA, Pitt, Wisconsin, Miami of Ohio, Southern Illinois (the refs allowed the Salukis to turn that Kansas game into a schoolyard brawl - that was NOT basketball), and others. Texas A&M was one of the few "defensive" clubs that actually played honest defense, which is why I liked them so much. But the brand of ball Memphis plays is thrilling. And while they are a shooter or two short on the perimeter, they run, they finish, they try wild forays into the lane. It's good stuff. A Memphis-Tennessee game would have blown the lid off of the gym. Alas (see #4).

6. Mid-Major power. I loved UNLV back in the day and I love Memphis now for the way they shed any labels that experts try to put on them because of conference affiliation. When are we finally going to learn that while conference affiliation may play a role in preparation (quality of the competition), it has nothing to do with the talent level of the team. This was a big, fat "suck it" to the power conferences, and especially to the Big East (the conference that decimated Conference USA).

7. The anticipation of things to come. As noted in my previous post, I think Derrick Rose is going to be something special next year and that Memphis will have a shot at going undefeated. So jumping on the bandwagon now makes a lot of sense.

All that to say: Memphis, I forgive you for beating my Aggies, and you have my full support going forward.

Go Tigers.

Ohio State: Team of Destiny or Team Destined to Lose?

Warning: This is going to be a long blog post.

Over at WIS I examined Oregon’s first round escape against Miami of Ohio in light of recent trends. Here on the blog (why on the blog? Because I am driving my editors crazy with the overload of March Madness columns) we are going to look at second round nail biters and what they mean to a team going forward. Once again, the question is this: is a close win more likely to propel a top team to a title run, or reveal them as flawed and doomed?

It seems appropriate to shift this analysis to second round games involving higher seeded teams (top seeds are narrowed from 1-5 seeds to 1-4 seeds) because this has already been the Year of the Favorites in the NCAA Tournament. When VCU was vanquished by Pitt in an overtime thriller and Winthrop was pummeled by Oregon, the last of the Cinderellas were gone … and the tournament was only 96 hours old.

That said, the arguments for parity in college hoops really didn’t take too much of a hit. Other than Kansas, all the top seeds had a difficult time advancing past the second round and popular Final Four picks like Georgetown, Texas A&M, and UCLA all survived harrowing contests over the weekend. Heck, you could have swapped the seeds for Wisconsin and UNLV and no one would have known the difference. Just because the favorites often survived doesn’t mean the games – and the teams – weren’t close.

No greater example of that can be found than the Ohio State-Xavier game. The Buckeyes were outplayed by the Musketeers and only won after receiving the Golden Sombrero of College Basketball Luck: Bad Call, Missed Free Throw, Bad Coaching, and Miracle Three. Without that exact sequence (all in 10 seconds), Ohio State is done.

No sooner had the final horn sounded when approximately 7,422 sportswriters were all online, arguing that Ohio State’s scare was the best thing that could have happened to them. True statement? As with Oregon and first round scares, we are going to take a look at the close second round games involving top seeds this decade. Using the five points or less (or overtime) as the measure for a close game and looking at 1-4 seeds, we can look to 17 such games played over the past seven seasons.

Sweet 16 Losers

As with first round teams, top seeds that squeak out second round games often go down in flames the very next time out; in this case, the loss comes in the Sweet 16 round. Of the 17 teams that survived close second round contests, eight of them lost in the regional semis.

2000 - (1) Duke edged (8) Kansas in round two before losing to (5) Florida
2000 - (4) Syracuse beat (5) Kentucky before getting drilled by (1) MSU
2000 - (4) Tennessee defeated (5) UConn and then lost to (8) North Carolina
2000 - (4) LSU snuck past (5) Texas before being crushed by (8) Wisconsin
2001 - (3) Ole Miss defeated (6) Notre Dame and then lost to (2) Arizona
2002 - (4) Kentucky edged (12) Tulsa and then was bounced by (5) Maryland
2004 - (3) Pittsburgh beat (6) Wisconsin before losing to (2) Oklahoma State
2004 - (3) Texas defeated (6) UNC and then lost to (7) Xavier

The list above shows that just under half the second round survivors were immediately knocked off in the Sweet 16, but the other nine were able to advance. So far, this gives Ohio State just over a 50% chance of getting past Tennessee. But what about the rest of the tournament?

Ability to Advance

In the column about Oregon, we saw that a top seed that survives a first round scare and then wins in the Sweet 16 tends to go all the way to the Final Four. Granted, only five of the 27 qualifying teams even made it past the Sweet 16, but all five of those advanced out of the region. The opposite effect seems to occur with teams surviving second round scares.

Of the nine teams in this decade that snuck by in round two and then won against in the Sweet 16, only three of them managed to win the regional final. They are:

2004 - (3) Georgia Tech (title game)
2006 - (2) UCLA (title game)
2006 - (4) LSU (final four)

As for the six teams that reached the Elite Eight, only to lose, the list reads like this:

2002 - (2) UConn and (2) Oregon
2003 - (1) Arizona
2004 - (1) St. Joes’s
2006 - (1) Villanova and (1) UConn

These two lists tell a pretty interesting story. For starters, we arrive at an interesting breakdown when looking at various seeds. Here are some key records:

Sweet 16 Games
(1) 4-1
(2) 3-0
(3) 1-3
(4) 1-4

Elite Eight Games
(1) 0-4
(2) 1-2
(3) 1-0
(4) 1-0

Here, as with the research in the Oregon column, we see that the higher seeds tend to fare better in the Sweet 16. However, beyond that, seeding doesn’t seem to help at all, and if anything, lower seeded teams tend to do better. The lone 3 and 4 seeds both gained more momentum as the tournament unfolded, while the top seeds couldn’t get it revved up. This seems to indicate that the 1 seeds that barely survive in the early rounds are unlikely to get things figured out as they go along. Given this information, recent history suggests that Ohio State, as a top seed, has an 80% chance of defeating Tennessee, but almost no shot of beating the winner of the A&M/Memphis game.

Quality of Opponents

It is also helpful to look at the quality of the teams these survivors are facing as opponents. Since we are assuming probable success for Ohio State in the next round, let’s look at the Elite Eight winners and losers and see who they had to play.

Winners:
2004 - (3) Georgia Tech over (4) Kansas
2006 - (2) UCLA over (1) Memphis
2006 - (4) LSU over (2) Texas

Losers:
2002 - (2) UConn lost to (1) Maryland
2002 - (2) Oregon lost to (1) Kansas
2003 - (1) Arizona lost to (2) Kansas
2004 - (1) St. Joes’s lost to (2) Oklahoma State
2006 - (1) Villanova lost to (3) Florida
2006 - (1) UConn lost to (11) George Mason

Until last year, the Elite Eight losers were being defeated by the highest possible seed they could face in that game, but then Nova and UConn both went down to lower seeds. Meanwhile, among winners, only Georgia Tech got to play against a lower seed than expected. On average, winners have defeated a seed of 2.33, while losers have been defeated by a seed of 3.33. Even if you took out the George Mason game, the 1.80 seed average faced by the previous five losers still doesn’t indicate that big of a difference in the level of competition, This is particularly true when you note that all three of the winning teams also beat the highest possible seed in the Sweet 16 round.

Impact on Top Seeds

Since the level of seeding doesn’t seem to matter much – and since Ohio State will be playing either a 2 or 3 seed anyway – we have no choice but to rely on the raw data above: that 1 seeds typically don’t recover from a shaky early round game. When you consider that no top seed has had a win of less than five points in this decade, the above data represents all of the “close” wins on the first weekend. One, Duke in 2000, lost in the Sweet 16, and the other four all lost in the Elite Eight.

In fact, even if you go back further to include a larger sample size, top seeds don’t fare much better. Only one top seed from the last 20 years has won a close game during the opening two rounds and gone on to win it all – UCLA in 1995. It was that game, featuring the famous Tyus Edney shot, that I believe causes people to buy in to the mythology that “a bunch” of number one seeds have survived an early scare only to go on to a title. Going back to 1986, we find 12 additional top seeds that survived such a scare; 10 teams had their brush with disaster in the second round, one in the first, and one (Michigan State in 1990) in both. Of those 12, only UCLA won it all, while Michigan (1993) and Kentucky (1997) reached the title game and UMass (1996) and North Carolina (1998) reached the Final Four. Three teams lost in the Elite Eight and four lost in the Sweet 16.

Therefore, folding in the last 20 years, here is how top seeds have fared after dodging a close one during the opening weekend:

Sweet 16
12-5

Elite Eight
5-7

Final Four
3-2

Title Game
1-2

Even if we give Ohio State the benefit of the doubt by going back further in history, they still seem to face difficult odds. While they have a 71% chance of winning their next game, the Buckeyes historically have only a 29% chance of reaching the Final Four, and a 6% chance of winning it all. And considering that this decade features more parity than ever before, you have to believe that the more recent trends (80%/0%/0%) will hold even stronger, which means that Ohio State's odds are probably 75%, 20%, and 5%, or something along those lines. You will note that the Buckeyes' odds of winning based on this analysis are actually lower than the odds of them winning based simply on the number of teams remaining. As one of four left in the South region they have a 25% chance of reaching the Final Four and as one of 16 in the field, they have just over a 6% shot of winning it all.

Ohio State’s lucky win over Xavier might have seemed like destiny and brought back memories of UCLA in 1995, but according to the record books, the Bruins are the only top seed that Ohio State is going to want to compare themselves too. It is far more likely that the Buckeyes will wind up like one of the other 16 on that list and come up short of a national title.

Based on the research, a narrow win in an early round is not a stroke of good fortune on the paved path to a title, but rather the first glimpse of fatal flaws soon to be exposed.

Of course, that shouldn’t stop Ohio State from trying. After all, there is a second time for everything.

Tourney Challenge Update: Through Two Rounds

Another tourney challenge, another beating on the way for yours truly. Despite assembling a bracket through careful calculations (primarly seeding trends and point differentials), I opted to use my "gut instinct" picks to compete against my brother Drew. Big mistake. Through two rounds he is already putting great distance between us, leading 183 to 158.

There is a lot to dislike about my bracket, but I will focus on Gonzaga, Nevada, and Illinois. I thought the Zags were going to return to their double-digit seed glory of yesteryear, but unfortunately, as Rick Patino would say, "Matt Santangelo was not walking through that door!" The Zags played horrendous basketball against Indiana (who then played horrendous basketball against UCLA) and my big Elite Eight upset pick was toast. I also overestimated Nick Fazekas' ability to not be a big wuss, so my Nevada-over-Memphis pick backfired. Finally, my 5-12 analysis tool assured me that Illinois was a lock against Virginia Tech, but apparently the tool only works for the first 35 minutes of games. The Hokies did indeed suck, but Illinois found a way to blow a 12-point lead (in a game with barely 100 total points!) in the final moments. Just brutal.

Of course, it isn't all roses for Drew either. He had North Carolina going out early and Texas going to the Elite Eight, so the top half of his East region is decimated. Since I knew Rick Barnes would crush the Horns, I still have UNC alive, which could help me gain ground if they can knock off USC. Other than that, he is looking pretty good. Since we both have Georgetown, Oregon, and Kansas in the final four, my only hope is that Texas A&M comes out of the South. Should be interesting.

"The Next George Mason?" Don't Bother Looking

It seems people are spending an inordinate amount of time looking for another double-digit seed to go to the Final Four, as if Mason's improbabe run last year was the start of some sort of trend. This is lunacy. It was a once in a generation experience and we shouldn't be sullying it by assuming it can be replicated. As my man G.O.B. from Arrested Development used to say, "Come on!"

(Man do I miss that show.)

Anyway, my suggestion is to scale things back a bit and start looking for the next Bradley instead. The Braves made a huge splash in last year's tourney by advancing to the Sweet 16 and ruining the seasons of Kansas, Pitt, and Golden State (who fell hook, line, and sinker for Patrick O'Bryant) in the process. Folks are keying in on teams like Winthrop because they have some Mason, deep-tourney-run qualities, but this is fool's gold. Taking WInthrop to the Elite Eight ignores the fact that they are looking at first and second round matchups with Notre Dame and Oregon, respectively. Those two teams just happen to be two of the best shooting and scoring squads in the country. You like Winthrop to beat both of them? Hey, more power to you.

You are far better off looking for an 11-14 seed in a bracket with some overachieving teams that can be beat as long as the underdog just plays well, or some overrated teams that have no real advantage despite their higher seed. Based on these factors, I am intruiged by Davidson (but am picking Maryland), like the chances of either Wright State or VCU coming out of that Duke/Pitt debacle in Buffalo (but am avoiding it, since I don't know which underdog to back), and also think Long Beach State has the chance to win a couple of games.

However, my pick for "The Next Bradley" is Oral Roberts. I went to Allen Fieldhouse earlier this year and watched this team beat down Kansas and I remember taking note of what a great tournament team they would be. They have a star interior player in Caleb Green that can carry teams several rounds. He can score, pass, get to the line, you name it. Plus, while Oral Roberts' guards are a bit streaky and careless with the ball, they have a lot of team speed and some guys with serious stones. Ken Tutt, in particular (I like to call him King Tutt) is the type of guy that can shake off a 1-for-12 game to make a tying three as time expires.

Not only do I like what ORU is bringing to the table, but I also like where they are seeded. No disrespect to Singing Tony Bennett and his Washington State Cougars, but I watched this team play four games in the past two weeks and they are NOT a three seed. In fact, if you switched their jerseys, people wouldn't be able to tell which team was the 3 and which was the 14. I'm not saying WSU is a mortal lock to lose, just that if they don't play really well, they probably will. And if Oral Roberts gets by WSU they will face either an overrated Vandy team or an undisciplined George Washington squad. Either matchup looks pretty ideal for the Golden Eagles.

But that's just me. If you like VCU or Stanford or even Winthrop, I can see that. Just make sure you are looking for good, old fashioned Sweet 16 Cinderellas, rather than a one-in-a-lifetime underdog.

All-Tournament Team (First Two Rounds)

PG - Marcus Williams, UConn. You don't normally see guys from top-seeded teams truly shine in the first rounds, but UConn was in a couple of dog fights (pun totally intended), and if it weren't for Williams, they might be the answer to a pretty rough trivia question. As it stands, Williams averaged 20.5 points, 8 assists, almost 4 boards, a block, and a steal per game, while dropping 5 threes, shooting 62% from the floor, and hitting 10-of-11 free throws.

SG - Brandon Roy, University of Washington. Not only did Roy carry UW back to the Sweet 16, not only is he going to be the best NBA shooting guard to come out of college since Dwayne Wade, Roy also averaged 24.5 points, 5 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals, and a block, while shooting 53% from the floor and 81% from the line. (Apologies to Allan Ray, who bounced back from a gruesome eye injury to score 44 points and hit nine threes in the first two games.)

SF - Joakim Noah, Florida. I know that he doesn't play small forward (an equally deserving Corey Brewer mans this post), but his play on the wing was incredible against UW-Milwaukee. Besides, I needed to get Craig Smith on this team as well. As for Noah, he has been everything I hoped for and more. He has the second highest assist total in the entire Minneapolis regional (13, one behind Mustafa Shakur) and is creating matchup nightmares for Gator opponents. Not only that, but he is a stat sheet stuffer extraordinaire. He's shooting 58% from the floor and 78% from the line (despite shooting from the wrong side of his head) while averaging 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 4.5 blocks, and 2.5 steals. Those are Andrei Kirilenko numbers.

PF - Craig Smith, Boston College. He's going for 23.5 and 14.5 a game despite wearing two defenders as a second uniform. Not only that, but he made the two biggest free throws of the tournament to get BC by Pacific.

C - Sheldon Williams, Duke. I like Roy Hibbert (who my dad compared to a 6'5" third grader) and Bradley's Patrick O'Bryant as much as the next guy, but Williams' numbers speak for themselves. 25 points, 16 boards, and 5.5 blocks a game on 59% shooting from the field and 82% from the line. Wow. So what if he fouls on every play?

Top Seeds Look to Make This the Craziest March Yet

By all accounts, this has been a fantastic NCAA Tournament. After two rounds we have the Missouri Valley Conference staking its claim as a national power, the Pac-10 salvaging an off year, and two double-digit seeds reaching the Sweet 16. It all fits with the concept that this is the most "wide open field yet."

In fact, the prevailing feeling about this year's field is that anything can happen. You hear coaches talking about parity and experts saying that anyone can win it and after a while, you become convinced that this is the year that a team will come out of nowhere to cut down the nets. While this could certainly happen, the truth is that the giants are still lurking. UConn, the heavy favorite, has played poorly but remains in the field. Duke seems to be growing stronger every game. Memphis is wowing with its athleticism and depth, quickly turning into the kind of bully that UNLV was in the early 1990's (meaning: coming out of a middling conference, flying under the radar, and then blowing people away). Texas is still around. So is UCLA. The truth is that the Final Four will probably feature three of those five teams, in addition to the survivor of the Nova-BC-Florida-Georgetown bloodbath in the Minneapolis region.

The fact that some sense of order will probably be restored this coming weekend got me thinking about the possibility of all number one seeds reaching the Final Four. Wouldn't that be the ultimate irony? 2006 seems to be the pinnacle of parity in college hoops, and this tournament is being hailed as the most wide open ever. So wouldn't it be the craziest development yet if, after all of the upsets and buzzer beaters, this thing went chalk into the Indy?

For more, click on the link.

Major Statement by MVC

Unless you have been trapped under a rock for the past 48 hours or just don't like sports, you probably know that the Missouri Valley Conference has validated the selection of four of its teams for berths in the NCAA Tournament. You know that despite having only one higher seed, the MVC placed two teams in the Sweet 16, went 4-2 over the first two rounds of the tournament, and made CBS' bullying, badgering lead analyst Billy Packer eat his words.

Click on "Major Statement by MVC" link on the right side of the page for the rest of the article. You can also access this piece by viewing it on Blog Critic.

Officials: Please Take Charge

The offensive foul calls in the NCAA Tournament have reached a ridiculous level. Any contact is now a charge. Players are flopping, arriving late, sliding under airborne players, turning sideways ... all offensive fouls. I am still for whistling a guy when he goes out of control or runs over a stationary player or even tries to get away with a push-off. But this is ridiculous. Not only is it very damaging to the style and flow of the game (seriously, just watch how many charge calls there are), it has also made games a three-point shooting contest, because the incentive to drive has been all but eliminated. Threes are already worth more and are ridiculously easy to shoot (move the line back!), so why risk a turnover by going in the lane, where any contact is going to go for an offensive foul? Not to mention the fact that the refs/rules are creating an incentive for players to slide under guys when they have already left the ground (see: the horrendous charging call on Corey Brewer of Florida yesterday, which resulted in a turnover and a concussion for the Gators swingman), which is going to get some people very badly injured. This is out of hand and somebody needs to step in and right the ship before it ruins the game, or worse, ends someone's career.

Day Two Recap

Yesterday's gimmick seemed to work pretty well, so we'll do that again. Here are the 16 games, ranked in order of MY preference, with an accompanying sentence of insight (I use that word loosely).

1. Northwestern State with the win of the opening round, coming back from a 17-point deficit with 8:30 to go and winning on a fadeway heave from three as time expired.

2. North Carolina should thank their lucky stars for two things: A) The fact that they have Tyler Hansbrough (24 points, 9 boards), who carried them to victory, and B) The fact that Murray State lost its leading scorer eight minutes into the game, because without those two facts, it is the Racers moving on.

3. I've become a Bradley believer as the tenacious Braves outlast a very good Kansas team in a game that became a contest of which team could just avoid turning it over and at least take a field goal attemept.

4. UConn nearly suffered the worst defeat in the history of college basketball, but in the end, they managed to turn that into a positive, as there is no zero chance that they will be caught flat-footed in round two on Sunday.

5. Ohio State dodges a huge upset as Davidson did everything but get a good game from its leading scorer, Brendan Winters (5-16 from the field) in a 70-62 loss.

6. Ronnie Brewer's stat line was okay (14-5-5 with 2 steals), but he did not do enough to prevent Bucknell from riding incredible three-point shooting (11-21) to their second straight opening round win.

7. Georgetown advances by beating Northern Iowa, but more importantly, produced one of the best gambling moments of the tournament when Ashanti Cook threw down an unnecessary dunk with 2 seconds left to cover the spread.

8. Memphis shoots 62% and knocks down 11 threes on their way to 94 points in an impressive offensive display against an underrated Oral Roberts team.

9. Arizona pulls off one of the biggest shockers of the tournament so far in that they hung 94 points (on 59% shooting) against the supposedly tough Wisconsin defense.

10. Penn gets the "good try" award for making Texas play their style of game and staying within striking distance throughout, but in the end, LaMarcus Aldridge made a big statement by scoring 19 points and carrying the Longhorns to victory.

11. The George Mason win over Michigan State was a pretty good game, but it was too depressing for me personally to put any higher than this (RIP former Director of CTU George Mason).

12. West Virginia makes a big statement by running their offense with ease (11 threes) against a very tough Salukis defense.

13. A rough game between NC State and Cal was decided by which team finally made a big shot, something Cameron Bennerman did twice in the final minute for a 58-52 win.

14. Pittsburgh joins Arizona as a "statement team" from Friday: the Panthers shot a school-record 67% from the field and saw big man Aaron Gray go 6-for-6 from the field on his way to 17 points, 13 boards, 4 blocks, and a probable first round selection in the NBA Draft.

15. Kentucky is going to need to play a lot better than they did in a 69-64 win over UAB to have any chance against a UConn that now looks destined to go on a torrid run through the Washington bracket.

16. Villanova wins an ugly - no, hideous - game against 16th-seeded Monmouth, but can take heart in the fantastic shooting of Allan Ray, who seems to have recovered fully from having his eye nearly removed from its socket.

Bracket Challenge Update

Over at Whatif, we are running "The Great Tournament Challenge," a showdown between WIS legend Elliot Schwartz and me that uses an intricate scoring system and features copious amounts of meat for the winner.

After Round One, E has a rather large lead over yours truly, totalling 103 points to my 80. Elliot correctly picked 23 of 32 first round games and went 3-for-4 on the crucial 8/9 matchup, outscoring me 25-8 on that particular game alone. I only got 20 of 32 (my worst first round in recent memory) and went 1-for-4 on the critical 8/9 part of the bracket.

Not only that, but he also has a slight edge going forward. E has 14 of his 16 "Sweet Sixteen" teams left in the running, having lost only Iowa and Seton Hall (yikes) up to this point. I have already lost Kansas, Marquette, and Michigan State, leaving me with 13 teams elgible to advance beyond round two. Beyond that, we both lost one Elite Eight squad, as E's Iowa team suffered that crazy defeat to Northwestern State while my MSU Spartans crapped the bed against George Mason. I can't figure out how a team that went to the Final Four failed to defeat one man. Granted, this is the guy that saved LA when he flew the bomb into the Mojave during season two of "24," but still. Safe to say that the Big 10 gets the Big Loser award for Friday.

Day One Recap

With a glorious Thursday in the books it is time to take a quick look at the day's action. Feel free to drop any thoughts about the tourney, your own brackets, Billy Packer rants, or anything else you feel like mentioning.

I'm ranking the contests in order of how fun they were to watch and how good of a game it was, and offering one sentence on each game. Speed round!

1. Boston College got screwed by the tournament with a four seed, a 10 a.m. start time, and a trip to Salt Lake City, but they overcame all that and a tough Pacific team as they rode some clutch free throws by Craig Smith and a huge three from Jared Dudley to the type of victory that so often seems to be the precurser to a Final Four run.

2. The sensational play of Indiana point guard Earl Calloway (8-9 from the field, 18 points, 4 boards, 3 assists, and 6 steals) led a remarkable comeback by the Hoosiers, who managed to beat a San Diego State team that thoroughly outplayed them all night.

3. Nobody was happier than me to see GW get a victory despite having to play a valiant UNC-W team in what amounted to a road game, albeit a thrilling one.

4. Marquette looked like a team poised for a big tournament run, but despite a great performance from frosh point guard Dominic James, they are one-and-done thanks to downright absurd shooting from the Crimson Tide of Alabama, who were led by Jean Felix with an incredible 8 threes.

5. Oklahoma sucks (aplogies to Terrell Everett), so it was good to see the gritty UW-M Panthers do their thing behind Joah Tucker (24 points) and Boo Davis (26 and 6 with 3 steals) to the tune of an 82-74 "upset" victory that was anything but.

6. The crazy Chris Lofton turnaround J (ala MJ in the 2003 NBA All-Star Game) spares Tennessee from going down as the worst 2 seed of all time, as they barely beat a Winthrop team that shot 39% from the floor and 59% from the line.

7. LSU could be a force in this tournament as they played terrible basketball and still dominated a tough Iona team behind 22, 13 and 6 blocks from "Big Baby" Davis.

8. There must be some kind of power in the name Laws as Texas A&M's Acie Laws drew upon the power of past namesakes (I'm referring to little known Andre Laws of San Diego, who had some of the biggest shots I've ever seen during the 2003 West Coast Conference Tournament - an abscure reference, I know, but there is a great story attached to it) to post 23 points, 7 boards, and 5 dimes in leading the Aggies to the "uspet" over a tired and ragged Syracuse team.

9. Gonzaga should have lost once again but not for an extremely gutsy and weird (slamming the ball against his forehead over and over) performance by Adam Morrison, who dropped 35 while leading the Zags to a come-from-behind over an Xavier team that honestly felt like the better sqaud in this one.

10. I feel VERY good about calling Brandon Roy this year's Dwayne Wade as he sliced up the supposedly dangerous Aggies of Utah State by going 11-for-19 from the field on his way to 28 points with 5 dimes and 3 steals.

11. I also feel VERY good about calling Joakim Noah the next Antonio McDyess as he went out and blew minds by nearing a triple double (would have had it in a closer game) with 16 points, 8 boards, 7 assists, 5 blocks, and 3 steals ... get him on my fantasy team!

12. I think it is safe to say that Nevada needed more balance (not to mention defense) when you consider that they got 34 points from Marcelus Kemp (on 14-20 shooting) and another 24 from Nick Fazekas yet still got throttled by a Montana team that hung 87 points on 58% shooting.

13. Wichita State was so much better than Seton Hall that it almost became comical, and ultimately, led to only one thought ... suck it, Billy Packer!

14. The Illinois-Air Force game was so excruciating to watch (and I was stuck with it since I like in Chicago right now and my building can't support the Comcast On Demand tourney package - a rant for another day) that I watched NBA basketball and The OC instead (during March Madness!).

15. Duke won as expected but looked pretty brutal.

16. UCLA killed Belmont in the game that won the elusive "most boring game of the day" title.

There you have it. Let's all get a good night sleep and be back for another strong day tomorrow.

On the Eve of the Tourney

I feel like a little kid getting ready for Christmas morning. There is nothing like the first day of the NCAA Tournament. Nothing. In honor of this exciting time, I am handing out some special awards. These are for individual players to watch out for over the next few days:

The "Julius Hodge" Award - Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas. The Hodge Award goes to the veteran player on a mediocre team that is most likely to dominate an early round game despite having no jump shot whatsoever. Hodge carried NC State to the Elite Eight last year and willed his team to a win over UConn while leaving his mark on the tournament. I don't see Arkansas going that far, but I think they will beat Bucknell and give Memphis a great run behind Brewer.

The "Chris Thomas" Award - Dominic James, Marquette. A few years back, Notre Dame's Chris Thomas came out of nowhere as a freshman to set the tournament field on fire. Last year, Daniel Gibson of Texas and Kyle Lowrey of 'Nova did the same thing, but Lowrey got the hardware since his team went further. As you might guess, this award goes to the frosh point guard that lights up the field. This year I've got Dominic James of Marquette. The Golden Eagles are poised to make a surprise run in this tournament, and if they do, it will be behind this explosive guard.

The "Antonio McDyess" Award - Joakim Noah, Florida. This goes to the underclassman forward that goes from "potential lottery pick" to "top five pick" in a week. McDyess took the tournament by storm back in his day and I expect Noah to have a similar ascension this time around.

The "Mateen Cleaves" Award - Darius Washington, Memphis. This goes to the point guard most likely to channel emotion into leading his talented team on a deep run. Give me the guy that is still fueled by the memory of two missed free throws in the C-USA title game a year ago. Plus, Washington has the skill to back up the fire.

The "Dwayne Wade" Award - Brandon Roy, Washington. To the player most likely to throw up a triple-double while leading his team to an upset win. If the Huskies can get past Utah State, I could see Roy pulling a D-Wade and hanging some huge numbers on Illinois in the second round. (By the way, I've also got Roy as the guy that everyone wishes they had drafted in the 2006 NBA Draft, ala Wade.)

Feel free to post your own awards and get ready for some madness.

A New Form of March Madness?

Every year the brackets are announced for the NCAA Tournament, and every year the selections are met with criticism, second guessing, insults, and jabs. This year though, things are going to the crazy next level. Billy Packer and Jim Nantz openly ripped committee chairman Craig Littlefield by throwing around ridiculous statements. Packer (quite possibly the most negative human being on the face of the earth) went so far as to say that he hadn't seen anyone from the Missouri Valley Conference play that year, but that he knew they were inferior to teams from the ACC. He also used horribly flawed logic like, "By putting four MVC teams and four ACC teams in the field, the committee is saying that the two leagues are equal." Um ... no. Considering the MVC got seeds of 7, 11, 12, and 13, and the ACC got seeds of 1, 3, 4, and 7, it is safe to say that no, the committee did not say the two leagues were equal. In fact, for all the "mid major loving" that the committee is being accused of, they really didn't do mid major teams any favors. They might have put them in the tourney, but they put them in positions to fail. Now it is: pull upsets or be accused of blowing your chance. Nice.

The fact is, the committee really did do a poor job with this field. The inclusion of Air Force was a joke. Leaving of Missouri State is inexcusable. And the seedings, my word, the seedings. Cal goes from the bubble to 7. Indiana somehow gets a 6. Tennessee loses four of six and lands a 2 seed. Gonzaga goes 27-3 and falls behind said Tennessee team for a 3. Southern Illinois gets shafted with an 11 seed, which in turn screws over West Virginia, who shouldn't have to play a team that good in the first round. Pacific got a 13 seed despite being arguably the fourth best team in the West (behind UCLA, Gonzaga, and UW), while Montana got a 12. How is that in the realm of possibility? Anyway, this is the place to break it all down. How did the committee do? Who is the bigger villain now, the committee or the CBS jackals who attacked them on the air? Hurry and get your thoughts in, because in three days, no one will care anymore. Once the ball goes up on Thursday morning, thoughts of omissions and seedings and Littlefield-Packer duels will be nothing but a forgotten subplot.

Shooting Counts

Hassan Adams soars into the
first round of the NBA Draft

Back before the tournament started I told my brother, Drew, that I was taking Duke to the Final Four because they had the best shooter in the field in J.J. Redick. My thinking was that you just can't put a price tag (don't worry, I'm not dredging up the "Town Hall" on whether college athletes should be paid) on being able to hit jump shots. And the theory has played out ... just not really with Duke. Redick and the Blue Devils will have their chance, but for now, the long ball has been kind to others in the field, including the winners from tonight’s games.

- West Virginia has used their sophisticated offense and backdoor cutting to set up open looks, and it's been the shooting of guys like Gansey, Salley, and Pittsnoggle (my favorite name to say) that has carried them to the Elite Eight.

- Illinois "gets it done" (a nod to the insane Digger Phelps) with defense and passing, but none of that works of guys like Brown and Williams and Head don't knock down shots. Their ability to stretch the defense and hit threes is what makes them great.

- Louisville, my pick to represent the left side of the bracket in the title game, is shooting epitomized. If they ever go ice cold, they are probably done. But when you've got three guys that are all capable of dropping 5-7 threes and going for over 20 any given night, that's the kind of team that is hard to stop. And tonight against Washington, Garcia and Tai-Kwon-Dean both hit five triples.

- Finally, Arizona advanced purely because of shooting. Salim hit the game-winner and the equally important three a few minutes earlier (when Bobbit moronically tried to pick his pocket) and he and Hassan Adams combined to shoot 15-23 from the field. On that topic, Adams probably did more for his NBA prospects in that game than any player has in one tournament game in recent history. Maybe D-Wade against Kentucky a few years ago. Adams has always been criticized as being a guy that can't take his game to the perimeter, but now that Lute Olson is letting him fire from deep, he's showing he has the whole package. He can lock people up, take it to the rim, sky for rebounds, and now drill jumpers. To me, he looks just as good as Igoudala.

That's Why You Don't Call Timeout (Day Four Recap)

Hodge knew what
to do with it

All weekend I've been railing about the new trend in college hoops: coaches calling timeout and micro-managing the game. Today we saw Herb Sendek let his guys play on, and the result was a fantastic game-winning three-point conversion by star senior Julius Hodge. Not only were the Wolfpack able to create an advantage by keeping the pace of the game intact, they also got UConn in matchup problems. Rudy Gay was clearly not ready to handle a guy like Hodge (although he was unlucky getting tripped like that), and Jim Calhoun certainly didn't want Charlie Villanueva guarding ANYONE out there (impartial analyst Gus Johnson went so far as to apologetically call him a liability). If NC State calls timeout, it gives the Huskies a chance to get Josh Boone back in the game, and viola! that shot gets cleaned right off the glass and we go to overtime. Great work by Sendek.

Here are other thoughts on the day:

- Sendek's great coaching stole the show from Calhoun, who showed his skill in the most challenging of times. He did a great job with offense-for-defense and he did it early. He wasn't afraid to go to the bench for guys like Ed Nelson. He kept his team attacking and going to the basket. Great job of coaching - too bad no one will remember it since they lost.

- Billy Packer continues to be one of the most vile men in the world. Well, at least in the broadcasting industry. He just can't keep his big mouth shut. Last year it was an open war with St. Joe's. This year he was openly rooting for Duke. There's no other way to put it. He was pleading with the officials for calls, making excuses for the Blue Devils, and carrying on as if he was the AD of the university. It was loud, it was blatant, and it was the ultimate example of unprofessional behavior.

- Louisville looked mighty impressive. I told you that was just a 2-7 game in disguise. Please, please, let CBS show the Louisville-Washington game this Thursday. If I get fed another crappy game because a Big 10 team is playing, I might puke.

- Isn't it weird that last year's Wisconsin team was considerably better than this year's team ... yet they are already a round further this time around? Crazy game.

- Mmmm ... Mamba's.

- Digger's matching tie/highlighter shtick needs to stop immediately.

- Has anyone seen a single minute of a Villanova game?

- Oklahoma State vs. Southern Illinois is the best game that everyone will forget about. The Cowboys had to dig down deep and get a career game from McFarlin (31 points) to get past the gritty Salukis. Great job by both of those teams.

- Have to mention North Carolina (the only team to absolutely roll through the first two rounds), so how about Marvin Williams going for 20 and 15 off the bench? Ladies and gents, there's your #1 pick in the 2006 NBA draft.

See you on Thursday.