Connect Four

Forgive the pun, but I had to take a quick break from writing about the NBA to celebrate a breakthrough for office pools everywhere. You see, I decided to run a fairly simple matrix for this year's picks, since I hadn't seen enough hoops. I threw up my bracket in the comments section of a previous post and have been amazed to see it all come to fruition as if I had that sports almanac from Back to the Future II.

The matrix spit out the following for the best five teams in the country:

1. Kansas
2. Memphis
3. North Carolina
4. Davidson
5. UCLA

I couldn't pick Davidson, because the Wildcats were in Kansas' region, so I had no choice but to put the top seeds through. Now they are all in the Final Four.

But it goes beyond that.

24 out of 32 correct in the first round, including Davidson (over Gonzaga), Western Kentucky (over Drake), and Kansas State (over USC).

14 out of 16 correct in the second round, with misses only on Marquette (against Stanford), and Clemson (they were knocked out by Nova.

7 out of 8 correct in the Elite Eight, with the only miss coming on Louisville (against Tennessee).

And, of course, 4 out of 4 in the Final Four.

Needless to say, it is better than I normally do.

The bad news? I couldn't resist letting my own opinions and emotions get in the way. I felt that UCLA depended too much on luck so I went with Xavier (the #6 overall team). I couldn't quite pull the trigger on Davidson in one of my brackets so I put Wisconsin (#7) through to the Elite Eight. Even though Memphis was a clear favorite in the South, I hedged by bet by tabbing Texas in a few pools.

So instead of having one of the great brackets of our time, I have my usual hit-or-miss affair. Sure, it's enough to have me in the running in a few pools (the ones where I went with Memphis over Texas), but it's not the stuff of legends.

The good news? I've still got my new formula and there's always next year.

Quiet Storm

Last night was a monster session of hoops, both NBA and collegiate. I had four games locked and loaded on my double tuner, HD DVR, and so when I got home from work, I just went to town. But nothing much happened that stood out as a "big" story. Seriously, check out the slate of games:

- North Carolina walloped Washington State (much to my co-worker Pete's chagrin - keep your head up, Pete). No surprise there, considering the Heels are playing like UNLV circa 1990 right now.

- Xavier topped West Virginia in an overtime thriller. This was a great game and produced B.J. Raymond's epic OT performance and equally epic celebration, but there isn't much for me to talk about on my NBA blog (other than the fact that Xavier's Josh Duncan reminds me A LOT of Carlos Boozer).

- Louisville won easily, but I didn't get to see much of that one.

- UCLA won again despite not playing particularly well, which makes this no different from their previous 12 tournament victories from 2006-2008. (Seriously, is there any team in the history of college basketball as lucky as Ben Howland's bunch? I know that you create your own luck and that their tenacious defense is a large part of that, but that A&M game really took the cake.)

- Denver overcame a 15-point deficit to run Dallas off the floor in a key Western Conference game, which would have been noteworthy except that it is beyond obvious that Dallas should NOT HAVE RUN WITH DENVER, as pointed out in the previous post. How obtuse can a team be?

- Golden State also overcame a significant early deficit to crush Portland, and here, finally, we get some "news we can use."

That's because Matt Barnes just came back from the dead a la Tony Almeda. Barnes has been mired in the slump of all slumps for this entire season as he has struggled to deal with the death of his mother. But last night, against Portland, he looked like the Matt Barnes of old, scoring 8 points, grabbing 8 boards, and hitting a couple of big three pointers.

It wasn't a particularly massive stat line (although not at all bad, for 19 minutes of playing time), but the way he was bouncing around and shooting the ball with confidence suggests he might be back to his old self and back in Nellie's good graces.

All of which is terribly important, because a healthy and effective Barnes is the difference between the Warriors being a fun, overmatched team and a legit threat in the playoffs. He's tall enough to give them an additional post defender while retaining their ability to spread the floor on offense, and he's one of their most instinctive finishers on the fast break. Not only that, but he's one of those glue guys that seems to come up big in the biggest moments. Each of those traits will be paramount in helping G-State duplicate or top last season's success.

Everyone assumes the Warriors' ceiling is "win one series, give another team trouble" because that is what happened last year. But that thinking is flawed. The reason they couldn't win in the second round last year had more to do with playing Utah than it did with any sort of inability to pull off consecutive upsets.

If Barnes is really back, then I think the Warriors are just as dangerous as any other Western Conference contender and that their fate - like every other team - is tied to matchups (and, to their detriment, home court advantage). Heck, I might just pick them to win it all. If they make the playoffs, that is.

The Race for 8th

This from Jon Barry, in today's "Daily Dime" on ESPN: "If Dallas is out, it's Denver. I wouldn't say this is a sure thing, because as great as the Nuggets are offensively, they are equally bad defensively. Is the offense going to be enough? They've got a big game with Dallas at home Thursday. The loss of Dirk should light a fire under the Nuggets."

Barry is right about one thing - The Nuggets-Mavs game tomorrow is huge. But he's wrong - oh so wrong - about his evaluation of the Nuggets as a team.

In fact, I would go so far as to say that if the Mavericks were to believe Barry's analysis, they will surely lose to Denver. However, if they know better (and they have to, right?), they will likely win.

Confused?

That is because the majority of NBA types completely misunderstand Denver. In fact, I just had a lengthy email exchange with a buddy about this and, as with Barry's comment above, it came in the context of discussing the Mavericks and whether they could still make the playoffs without Dirk.

Here was one salvo:

"I think Dallas will be okay if they beat Denver on Thursday. Consider that their game of the year. If they lose it, I think they will lose faith in themselves without Dirk and slide to 9th. If they win, I think they could actually find a second wind and then turn to a running game the rest of the way.

It is kind of interesting, because people kill Avery for playing such a slow pace, but I don't think he has a choice most of the time. Dirk is agile for a 7-footer, but he's not fast by any stretch of the imagination. Plus, he has to stop a lot to wipe that mop of hair out of his eyes (it isn't a coincidence that his best playoff performances came with the buzz cut). I am interested to see if Avery keeps pulling back the reigns now that Dirk is out or if he lets this team get out and run. Stackhouse is still a surprisingly good transition player, Terry has always shot better running into a jumper, and we all know that Howard is a monster on the break. And they've got Jason Kidd, who - despite losing 19 steps - is still one of the best at running the fast break in NBA history. Throw in Brandon Bass and even George (he's always been surprisingly good at hitting the corner three off a secondary break) and this team has the personnel to get up and down a little bit. Without Dirk to cater to (his only big value-add on the break is as a trailing shooter, something that has become less valuable every since he decided to stop shooting threes for whatever reason), Dallas should be able to run freely and see what happens.

All of that said, I would NOT run against Denver. The Nuggets - contrary to popular belief - are actually a good defensive team and a woefully inefficient offensive team. They only give up and score a lot of points because they play at a hellacious pace. If you force them to play slow, they will get plenty of stops but usually bog down completely on offense. It is far better to try to beat the Nuggets 88-82 than 118-112. The more possessions they get and the faster they shoot, the easier it is for them to bury their bad shots and turnovers. If Dallas tries to run with Denver, they will probably get annihilated. But if they force-feed Dampier and Bass, run a deliberate offense, and make the Nuggets impatient, I think they will win easily. Detroit can run with the Nuggets and win. So can the Lakers and Warriors and Suns. But the Spurs can't (and they know it - that is why SA and Denver always play games under 100, yet the Spurs used to play over 100 against Phoenix all the time - they are the best at knowing who they can and can't run with). And the Mavs definitely can't. So they shouldn't try."

How I can see that and 90% of the people who will read this post can see that, yet Jon Barry (who I like as an announcer, by the way) can not, is utterly mind-blowing.

That aside, I can't wait to watch the game tomorrow night. It will likely feature a clash of styles between two teams that are trying to avoid missing the playoffs - unthinkable to each of them when this season started. Meanwhile the Warriors host the Blazers immediately afterward in a TNT doubleheader that actually means something. Outstanding.

Battier Better Win This Year

You might remember that my choice for Defensive Player of the Year last year was Shane Battier of the Houston Rockets. I felt that he was the primary reason that the Rockets were the league's best defensive team and one of the smartest and most versatile defensive players in the league. I could live with Tim Duncan as the choice, but was dismayed to see Marcus Camby (one of the worst pick-and-roll defenders I've seen) get the award for his blocked shot stats and Bruce Bowen take Battier's spot on the All-Defensive team because of his reputation.

This year? I'm thinking things might be different. The Rockets are once again a dominant defensive team and this time, the stars might be aligned for the former Blue Devil will the wrinkled forehead.

For starters, Bowen has lost about 14 steps and has continued to be exposed as a dirty cheap shot artist. Plus, the Spurs as a team have slipped a little defensively, so Duncan isn't really in the mix. Josh Smith blocks shots like a maniac, but he's undisciplined and doesn't have the reputation of many veterans.

That leaves only Camby. And this time, perception might work the other way. The Nuggets are actually a pretty fair defensive team, but because they play at the fastest pace in the league and therefore give up a lot of points, they've come to be known for playing poor defense. So even though Camby might actually be better this year than last year, voters might be reluctant to give it to someone from Denver. Plus, the mere fact that he won the award last year might prompt someone to spread the love.

The other major factor is that Battier finally got the national platform he needed when he hounded Kobe Bryant into 11-for-33 shooting. The "hand in the face" technique has been shown over and over in freeze frame and by now, everyone has seen and marveled at not only the intelligence (why don't more people think of this?) but also the coordination (it can't be easy to come within a few inches of someone's head time after time after time).

The hype machine is fired up now and it could be just what Battier needs to take home some overdue hardware.

Must Win For Denver?

The Nuggets, fresh of their 168-point performance against the hapless Sonics, are heading to the Motor City to play the Pistons.

Normally, this would be viewed as a difficult road game and another chance to trot out the "what if" scenarios involving Joe Dumars, Carmelo Anthony, and the 2003 NBA Draft.

But this year, the game is taking on added significance due to the fact that Denver is outside of the playoff picture. This, despite boasting one of the most dangerous lineups in the NBA and a sterling 40-26 record. But such is life in the current NBA, where David Stern cares only about overseas expansion and nothing about fairness (Exhibit A: the Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw suspensions in last year's playoffs, Exhibit B: the Seattle Supersonics, Exhibit C: the playoff format).

I will be watching this game very closely to see how the Nuggets respond. Because even more than the result, I want to see how they approach the contest. This is the type of game that the Nuggets from the first half of the season would probably have laid down for - knowing how tough it would be to win in Detroit, they might have just mailed it in and conserved their energy. But they can't do that now. Will they show and prove? Will they maintain their composure. Will they play with the confidence that they can win?

If they do all those things - win or lose - I think it bodes very well for their chances to catch the Warriors and reach the playoffs. If they don't, I think they are done.

They HAVE to bring it tonight.

Paul Fires Latest MVP Salvo

The most pertinent question at this time of year when it comes to the MVP race is not "how valuable" a player is (imagine that), but rather "have the voters already made up their minds?"

For some reason, almost without fail, the MVP award gets decided right about this time every year. This is when you get the big flurry of columns and arguments and Steven A. Smith sightings and once people start taking positions, well, good luck getting them to change their minds. At the exact time of year when NBA analysts should be expanding their minds in the interest of accuracy, they are instead narrowing their viewpoints in the interest of being right (or loudest).

Makes no sense.

For instance, if the good people who vote on this award have been paying attention for the past week, they would have to move Chris Paul up their ballots.

While Kobe was being tortured by Shane Battier (one of the best defensive efforts I've ever seen) and shooting his team out of a game in Houston and LeBron was taking and missing an ill-advised game-winner, Paul was doing the following:

- Destroying the Spurs (no seriously, DESTROYING them)

- Battling Chauncey Billups and keeping his team in a tough road game ... while playing on one leg

- Going for 37 and 13 on that same bum wheel while leading a stirring and critical fourth quarter comeback over the Bulls.

Right now Paul is the the most unstoppable penetrator in the game. He's the best ball handler. He's the most disruptive perimeter defender. He throws the best alley-oop. He's playing for the #2 team in the brutal West (tied with the Lakers). He's putting up the first 20/11 season in 15 years (he's on pace to be just the sixth player of all time to reach those numbers, joining Isiah, Magic, Big O, Tiny Archibald, and Sacramento mayoral candidate Kevin Johnson). What else is there?

Unlike most fans and media members, I'm not making up my mind until the bitter end. Kobe could lead the Lakers on a big winning streak without Gasol and LeBron could throw up a series of 40-15-15 triple doubles.

But for now, Paul has vaulted into the lead.

My ballot as of today:

1. Chris Paul
2. Kobe Bryant
3. LeBron James

[Update - Since this is an NBA blog, I don't want to crowd the main page with my tourney picks. But I do want to get them on record, especially because I just know I will wind up tinkering in my various pools and screwing it up. So proceed to the comments for my tourney picks.)

Amare for MVP?

Last night was a big one in the NBA, because it featured "The Suns." As in, the version of the Phoenix Suns that we've come to know and love over the years. Their second half against Golden State was a work of art. They got Barbosa and Amare ahead of the pack, Raja Bell was firing threes, and Nash was dazzling with his patented full-speed, pull-up three in transition. It was a sight to behold. And coming on the heels of their grind-it-out win against San Antonio on Sunday, I can tell you that the West just got even more interesting. Granted, both games were at home, but they beat a "slower" team and a "faster" team in big, nationally televised games. Dare I say the Suns are on their way?

The other thing I was struck by last night was the play of Amare Stoudemire. On one hand, he didn't do anything different from a normal Amare performance. Yet there was something revelatory about the way he played.

The weird thing about Amare is the way little things get held against him. By most accounts he is a bit of a prima donna, yet a few personality quirks wind up getting exacerbated and the perception of Amare becomes one of "Locker Room Monster." He isn't the strongest defensive player in the world, yet to hear some analysts tell it, he's out there shaving points.

The defensive thing is the most puzzling to me. For starters, he's not the only guy in purple and orange that struggles on that end of the floor. Part of that is that the Suns have assembled a team of poor to quite poor (as opposed to "strong to quite strong") defenders and Amare is one of those. But the other part is that they've never wanted to fixate on defense. They didn't want to challenge shots too closely for fear of fouling and stopping the clock. They were willing to save a little energy on D so that they could run even harder on offense. Amare was just doing what he was told, really. And because everyone railed on the Suns for their poor defense and because Amare became the poster child for said poor defense, he now has this ungodly reputation.

But is it even true?

I will grant you that Stoudemire has too major weaknesses on the defensive end of the floor. They are:

1. Staying out of foul trouble.

2. Doing his work "early." This second issue is one of the major causes of the first and the primary reason he's not an effective on-the-ball defender in the lowpost. He's either a tad lazy or a tad, um, not that bright, because he never seems to be in the right position before his guy catches the ball. Every kid who learns how to play post defense the right way (say, at Big Man Camp) knows that denying cutters and working for superior post position is a huge part of defending the paint. Amare's never quite mastered this task, preferring instead to just wait for someone to have the ball and then try to stop them. This is why skilled post players (skilled not only at shooting and dribbling, but also at positioning and using their bodies) like Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol eat him alive.

That said, he's not entirely without merit on the defensive end. He has fantastic timing as a shot blocker and despite following a "don't foul!" mandate, he still manages to swat 2.24 shots per game (6th in the league). He averages nearly as many rebounds as Kevin Garnett (in similar minutes). So he's not just taking up space out there.

Besides, since when does being an average or subpar defensive player submarine a player's entire reputation. Here is just a quick rundown of some of the NBA legends who lacked a little bit on D:

Steve Nash - Two MVP awards
Charles Barkley - MVP, member of original Dream Team
Magic Johnson - Three MVP awards, considered one of the greatest players of all time
Dirk Nowitzki - MVP award

These are just the guys that come to mind without even thinking very hard about it. It seems more than a little unfair to punish Amare for similarly being "offensively inclined."

Anyway. To get back to my initial point, Amare just seemed like he was on another level last night. With the deadly jumper that he's developed (nearly out to three point range), his body control, and explosive ability to finish at the rim, he's probably the most unstoppable frontcourt player in the game today. Seriously, when was the last time you saw somebody effectively guard him one-on-one?

And while I don't actually think Amare deserves the MVP award in a year like this - with LeBron, Paul, and Kobe playing at ridiculous levels - doesn't he deserve to be thrown into the conversation once in a while?

In addition to the visual evidence that tells me Amare is unique and unguardable, there is also ample statistical evidence to suggest that he's truly one of the four best players in the league this year. By almost any measure, he stacks up as one of the elite. He is:

- 3rd in PER (behind James and Paul)
- 2nd in the league according to Yahoo's fantasy stats
- 4th according to ESPN's fantasy player rater (doesn't include turnovers)
- 3rd in points per 48 minutes (6th overall)
- 4th in field goal percentage
- 6th in blocks per game (as mentioned above)
- 1st in efficiency rating per 48 minutes (3rd overall)

I think it's time we let Amare off the hook for past sins and acknowledge just how incredibly good this guy really is.

Now That's How You Respond to Bruce Bowen

If you've ever read this blog, you know that I think Bruce Bowen is just about the dirtiest basketball player to ever walk the earth. When he kicked Amare Stoudemire - he of the surgically repaired knee - in the Achilles last year on an open dunk, Bowen was dead to me forever. There's no coming back from that kind of evil. I don't care what you had to do to make it to the NBA, you do NOT knowingly put a guy's career and ability to walk in jeopardy.

Last night he was at it again, kicking Chris Paul twice in the chest while Paul was defenseless on the ground. Real nice. Man, that guy is a word-I-don't-want-to-put-in-print.

What I found more interesting than Bowen's cheap shot (because seriously, at this point it is almost expected) is the way the Hornets responded. At the time of the incident they held a 60-53 lead and then after it happened, went absolutely crazy down the stretch, outscoring the Spurs 40-22 the rest of the way. Chris Paul was unstoppable and David West got the better of Tim Duncan in key spots. The Hornets pretty much just bullied them from that point forward.

And you know what they say about bullying bullies. I'm surprised Bowen didn't run home crying.

Suns-Spurs In Retrospect

If you care about the NBA and had access to a television on Sunday, you likely watched the Suns hold off the Spurs and end a three-game home losing streak. It was an intense, physical contest that felt very much like a playoff game and left Phoenix fans feeling quite pleased. After all, the only thing better than ending a rough stretch is beating the Spurs, right? I mean, it's all about San Antonio!

Of course, that is the problem this year in the West. It's not all about San Antonio. Sure, the Spurs are looking like a favorite. But so are the Lakers. And the Jazz. And, heck, even the Rockets and Hornets. Who isn't a favorite in the West this year?

The Suns problem is no longer beating San Antonio. That won't be an easy task in and of itself, but with Shaq guarding Duncan and these two aging squads going after each other, it seems like the odds are about 50/50 for once. No, the problem for Phoenix is beating everyone else.

The landscape of the Western Conference has changed, folks. A year ago the only true threat to a Suns title was, in fact, the Spurs. This year, all eight playoff teams (and even one non-playoff team) can beat any other team in a series. I honestly believe that. Which means that Phoenix is going to have to fight tooth and nail just to play the Spurs (unless it is the first round).

In my opinion, the biggest problem for Phoenix - brace yourself for this - is team speed. Yes, the team famous for picking up the pace is in danger of being run out of the gym by half the teams in the West.

To better analyze the Suns' postseason chances, lets break down the Western contenders into two groups: the teams that play faster than the Suns and the teams that play slower (based on Phoenix's post-Shaq pace numbers compared to the rest of the league).

Faster
Denver
Golden State
L.A. Lakers
Utah

Slower
Houston
Dallas
New Orleans
San Antonio

Obviously, one of those teams won't make the playoffs (unless that team is the Suns themselves), but it is worthwhile to consider them all. We can start by looking at the teams in the "slower" category. From that group, I see two teams that Phoenix can handle (Dallas and Houston) and two that they might struggle against, but could still come away with a series win. Houston is obviously on fire and the loss of Yao actually makes them faster and more athletic, but I expect them to come back to earth by the postseason and the Suns actually match up pretty well. Dallas is cooked and Dampier would last about 14 minutes before fouling out against Shaq qnd Amare. The Spurs, we already discussed. Only New Orleans seems like a real problem, given the way the Hornets have handled Phoenix this year (4-0). A closer look, however, suggests that a postseason matchup might not follow the existing script. For starters, New Orleans hasn't seen the new-look Suns. I realize that probably isn't scaring anyone, but Shaq should at least slow down David West a little bit. Furthermore, New Orleans won three of those four games by less than five points (including a double overtime thriller). Finally, the Hornets are woefully short on playoff experience in a league famous for its dues-paying history. The biggest problem for Phoenix against N.O. is the Chris Paul Factor. As in: who will guard him and how will Nash keep his turnovers down against him? Call it another 50/50.

To summarize, here are the loose odds I would give Phoenix to beat those four teams:
San Antonio (50/50)
New Orleans (50/50)
Houston (75/25)
Dallas (80/20)

Not bad, all things considered. Which brings us to the far more problematic area: playing against the fast teams. I know it is hard for people to wrap their heads around this, but Phoenix isn't the thoroughbread in this race anymore. Just look at their current starting lineup from last year to this year:

PG - Nash/Nash (slower - due to his body breaking down, which is becoming painfully obvious)
SG - Bell/Bell (probably the same)
SF - James Jones/Grant Hill (slightly faster, which shows how slow James Jones was)
PF - Shawn Marion/Amare Stoudemire (slower - Amare's a gazelle, but not nearly as fast as Marion)
C - Amare/Shaq (much, much slower)

60% of the Suns lineup is slower than last year, while the 20% that has gotten faster is marginal.

This is coming at a time when the rest of the league is getting faster, particularly the teams listed in the "faster" column above. Utah's pace keeps getting quicker as Ronnie Brewer has added speed at the 2 and now teams with Williams, Boozer, an Kirilenko to provide four solid athletes in the starting lineup. The Warriors and Nuggets are blurs, as everyone knows. And the Lakers - who have always given Phoenix trouble - are now playing just as fast, in addition to playing just as well, as the Suns.

The matchups against these four teams don't bode nearly as well. Utah is a ferocious home team and the Suns have no answer for either Williams or Boozer. Remember what those two did to Alston and Yao last year? The Suns are going to have to put Amare on Boozer, which is going to result in fouls galore. The Lakers are clearly going to present a problem. They've played the Suns tough for years and now have the horse up front with Gasol (and that's without even considering Bynum) to cause real problems. I think the Suns can score big on the Lakers, but they won't be able to stop them. And in a shootout, it comes down to pace considerations and possession creation - ironically, the Lakers have out-Phoenixed Phoenix on this front. Denver probably won't make the playoffs, but they are 3-0 against the Suns and look like a mortal lock to beat them in a series. Phoenix has no answer for Melo, no answer for Iverson, and can barely even contain Kenyon Martin. Yikes. [Update: Fire the research department! Denver is 1-1 against Phoenix. I am adjusting the odds accordingly.]

Then there's the Warriors. Even last year they looked like they had passed Phoenix as Baron Davis and Jason Richardson bullied the Suns out of the building on two ocassions. Now GSW has added Version 2.0 of Monta Ellis to the equation and has no one for Shaq to guard.

Here are the odds:
Golden State (25/75)
L.A. (25/75)
Utah (40/60)
Denver (50/50)

Hopefully you are still with me here, because the good stuff is on the way. What we can gather from these two sets of odds is that the Suns might indeed have turned a corner on Sunday and that Shaq is working out ... but only in regard to the teams playing at a slow pace. They are still in big trouble against fast playoff teams from the West.

So what can they do?

Simple: put Barbosa into the starting lineup. This accomplishes a variety of things:

1. It adds speed. Duh. This is the obvious benefit, as Barbosa is Phoenix's fastest player and the one guy on the roster that is likely to have a speed advantage against his counterpart. At this point in his career, that raw speed hasn't translated into defensive prowess, but at the very least he can keep opposing guards busy chasing him around on the other end of the floor. There is real value in forcing a guy like Allen Iverson or Monta Ellis to sprint all over the court paying D. Not only that, but Barbosa gives Phoenix their best possible option to get out on the break and take advantage of Nash's incredible ability to throw long lead passes. Currently, only Amare is a true weapon on this play, as Raja runs to the three-point line (effective, but not quite as good as a layup), Grant Hill is only able to get deep enough for mid-range jumpers, and Shaq is still on the other side of the court.

2. It should help Barbosa break out of his slump. I am aware that my man Leandro is struggling right now, so it probably strikes you as strange that I would highlight him as the key guy on the Phoenix roster. But if recent history is any guide at all, nothing will help the Brazilian Blur get back on track faster than hearing his name introduced by the public address announcer. In seven games as a starter this year, Barbosa has played out of his mind, averaging 25.6 points per game on 55% shooting (including a whopping 28 threes on 50% shooting). If nothing else, putting him in the lineup for the opening tip might prompt a return to form.

3. It keeps Raja Bell rested and out of foul trouble. Many people feel that Barbosa can't start because it takes Phoenix's best defensive player off the floor. I disagree, for a couple of reasons. The first is that Bell is running out of gas. Too many nights spent guarding Kobe and Melo and McGrady are taking its toll. Plus, Bell is getting in early foul trouble because - wait for it - opposing teams also know that he's the best defender and so they attack him to get him off the floor. Waiting eight minutes to bring him in will enable them to avoid this early onslaught, keep Bell rested, and likely allow them to have their best possible defensive unit on the floor in the fourth quarter.

4. It makes it easier to go small. One of the keys to success for Phoenix is going to be their ability to play with a small lineup. Putting Barbosa at the 2, Bell at the 3, and Hill or Diaw at the 4 will help them regain some of the lost speed and allow them to get out and run more (regardless of whether Amare or Shaq is at the 5). Right now though they seem to be locked in to this trend of rotating Nash, Barbosa, and Bell in the backcourt and Hill, Diaw, Amare, and Shaq in the frontcourt. Starting Barbosa and playing him 35-40 minutes a night will force D'Antoni to rediscover the joys of playing Raja Bell at the 3 and going small more often.

Who knows, maybe this just wouldn't work, or maybe they can beat "fast" teams without making any changes. All I know is that I will be watching the nationally televised game against the Warriors this Thursday to see how the Suns fare when the pace picks up.

The Ginobili Condundrum

When I posted about the MVP race on Tuesday morning, I expected to receive a few emails. It went with the territory that Chris Paul, LeBron James, and Kevin Garnett supporters might want to mix it up a little bit and tell me how wrong I was in naming Kobe as the lead dog. So imagine my surprise when all the emails were from Spurs fans. And they weren't even about Tim Duncan!

No, the good people of San Antonio seem to believe wholeheartedly that Manu Ginobili is the most valuable player in the NBA.

Even at first blush, this is ridiculous. Duncan is still the MVP of the Spurs (he has proved that more than ever during their recent 10-game winning streak), which is pretty damaging to the claim that Ginobili is the MVP of the entire league. That said, there is no doubt in my mind that Ginobili is underrated in most NBA circles (although he sort of deserves this fate for being a gigantic flopper). John Hollinger of ESPN - through both his PER analysis and columns - has probably done the best job of pointing this out. He has Ginobili fourth in the league in PER, behind only LeBron (who is off the charts), Paul (having the best PER season by a point guard in several decades), and Amare (not exactly a defensive stopper). So you could argue that but for James and Paul having historically good seasons, Ginobili might actually top the list of most productive players in the league. Heady stuff.

The problem that my esteemed emailers are running into is one of faulty logic. Here is the thought process: "John Hollinger has proven that Ginobili is one of the very best players in the league. Manu plays for the defending champs and current top seed in the West. Therefore, he must be the most valuable player in the league."

False. This is the type of logic that can cause a student to miss points on the SAT or LSAT or GMAT, or whatever standardized test they are currently taking. This is critical reasoning 101, people!

Even if you adhere to Hollinger's PER stats with 100 percent certainty, there is still a big jump one must take to go from calling someone "best" to "most valuable," because it ignores an important variable - time. PER measures player stats on a per minute basis, which is actually very helpful in determining quality and efficiency among players with different raw numbers (effected by total minutes played). That said, there is obviously a corollary effect between how long a good player is on the court and how his team typically performs.

The problem with taking Hollinger's stats and using them as an argument for Ginobili's MVP candidacy is that it ignores this key variable. I don't blame Manu for playing fewer minutes than other elite players, nor do I necessarily think Popovich is doing something wrong with his rotations. I don't even think there is anything wrong with Hollinger's system. But you don't even see Hollinger contending that Ginobili is as valuable as LeBron, Paul, or Kobe. That's because they are on the court for different amounts of time.

Since we (okay, I) already ushered in the idea of standardized testing earlier in the post, allow me to use that as an example. (Prepare for shameless promotion of my employer.) Veritas Prep is a test preparation and admission consulting company that specializes in the GMAT. When deciding to enter a crowded market, the founders - Chad Troutwine and Markus Moberg - believed that by offering more hours of test prep, from superior instructors, they could offer an entirely new level of service. They were correct, as they have built the fastest-growing GMAT test prep company in the United States.

One of the chief selling points is that the courses are 42 hours in length. This, compared to 20-to-27 hours from most of their chief competitors. Now, it is very hard to prove cause and effect on something like this, but most studies prove that there is at least a corollary effect between the amount of time students spends preparing for a test like the GMAT and how well they will do. If all other things are equal (and I would argue that Veritas also has superior materials and instructors), then it would stand to reason that students would benefit more from the longer course. Again, if everything else was the same, there would be a larger impact purely by spending more time doing it.

If this is true in test prep, than it certainly seems true in professional basketball. Kobe Bryant and Manu Ginobili may have similar "per 40 minute" numbers (as Hollinger recently noted), but only Bryant is actually playing close to 40 minutes per game. The Lakers benefit from those fantastic statistics for over 38 minutes every contest, while the Spurs only reap the rewards of Manu's play for just 31 minutes per game. This isn't an issue? Really?

Put it another way. If a household had two wage earners that both made $100 an hour (pretty good, I know) and one worked 31 hours a week and the other worked 38, which would he the "better", or more skilled, worker? They would be equal, based on how much their performance warranted on an hourly basis. But if you were to ask which was more valuable to the household as an earner, clearly it would be the individual working 38 hours a week. That person is bringing home $700 more dollars per week and over $35,000 more dollars each year. It isn't even close.

This MVP discussion isn't close either. I'm not suggesting that Ginobili isn't great. Or that Kobe Bryant is that much better than he is. But there is no way in hell that Manu is as valuable. And don't even get me started on LeBron James or Chris Paul (both of whom are "better" than Ginobili anyway, based on Hollinger's PER system, disregarding the fact that they play nine and six more minutes every night).

Sorry, emailers.

MVP Recount

I recently threw up a post about last weekend the magical coincidence that saw the three top MVP candidates all put up amazing performances on national television. At the end, I cast my "ballot" and ranked the candidates as such:

1. Kobe Bryant
2. Chris Paul
3. LeBron James

In what is probably going to become a trend, I am being forced to reconsider on the fly. Last night, while Kobe was idle, James and Paul were going nuts. LeBron, you know all about. The crazy, effortless dunk in warmups, the 40-footer that he drained like a free throw, the seven three-point bombs, the 50-10-8 with four steals (one of three players in the last 20 years to add 10 dimes to 50 points), and the taunting of Spike Lee. It was all pretty incredible stuff. So he's the new #1 on my ballot. Forget historical trends or what place the Cavs are in, this guy is the best player in the league, having just an incredible season. For today at least, he's out in front.

As for Paul, he simply kept tormenting the Hawks, punishing them for not drafting him in 2005. He had 15 and 10 at halftime and finished with 23 points and 18 dimes as he continues to showcase why he's the next Isiah Thomas.

So here's the new ballot, with apologies to Kobe, since he didn't get to play last night:

1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kobe Bryant

(Note: Poor KG had his best game of the season and still can't crack the top three.)

M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P!

These days, you can't watch an NBA game without hearing the hometown crowd serenade its star player with the familiar M-V-P chant. Brandon Roy goes for 17 in a win over the Sonics? M-V-P! Joe Johnson gets an "and one" to cement a victory over the Bobcats? M-V-P!

Ridiculous doesn't even begin to describe the phenomenon. It's gotten as annoying as student bodies storming the court and Roger Clemens opening his mouth to speak.

That said, this weekend the M-V-P chants were flowing and, for once, they were completely justified.

If you tuned in to the NBA on ESPN this weekend, then you were treated to three amazing home performances from three of the season's top four MVP candidates. By my count, there are four primary candidates for The Most Confusing Award in Sports: Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Chris Paul (in no particular order). Typically about this time of year we start to hear endless shilling for the lead MVP candidate. This year? Crickets. My theory for the silence is that no one has any idea who to anoint as the favorite. It is literally a four-horse race and one that is too close to call.

Which is what made this weekend so spectacular. KG didn't get a national TV platform, but still went for 20 and 16 against the Hawks as Boston pushed its NBA-best record to 46-12. Garnett's infectious intensity was on full display and when he went to the line for his lone free throws he was showered with M-V-P chants. Of course he was.

But this weekend belonged to the other three lead dogs.

It kicked off on Friday night with Chris Paul taking advantage of a rare national TV appearance by putting together a masterful performance against the Jazz. He had 13 and 7 by the end of a incredible first quarter that featured a 25-1 run by the Hornets and finished with 24 points, 16 assists, and 5 steals. Plus, he got to the line for 14 free throws which gave the crowd plenty of chances to vocalize which award they think Paul should win. What made the performance so impressive was the way he went right at Deron Williams just weeks after being crushed by his Utah rival. In fact, that night in Salt Lake City was probably the biggest flaw on his MVP résumé ... until now. Paul's body control, quickness, ballhandling, and anticipation are unrivaled in the NBA and for the time being, he has left no doubt who the best point guard in the NBA is.


LeBron James warmed up for his national TV showcase by working over the T-Wolves to the tune of 30 points, 13 assists, and 8 rebounds on Friday night and then turned it up a notch on Sunday morning. Playing the Bulls in a fairly in a game made more intriguing because of the recent trade between the two teams, LeBron came flying out of the gates with a series of ridiculous shots, scored 23 first half points, and then finished things off with one of the sickest dunks I've ever seen (his head was at least six inches above the rim and he must have thrown that thing down at about 75 mph), followed by a stepback jumper to win it. He once again prove that nobody on the planet can match his combination of strength and speed, that no one should be able to lead the league in scoring and still pass the way he does, and that his fourth quarter woes are a thing of the DISTANT past. Watching LeBron these days doesn't feel like watching a basketball player - it feels like watching a superhero. The Cavs fans must have noticed this as well, because they responded in the best way they know how ... "M-V-P! M-V-P!"

Despite Paul's wizardry on the grand stage and LeBron's incredible stat (and rim) stuffing ways, Kobe Bryant probably had the best weekend in terms of MVP momentum. Despite losing to the Blazers on Friday night, Bryant took full advantage of a big matchup with Dallas on Sunday to go screaming to the front of the pack (not unlike Cole Trickle "dropping the hammer" in Days of Thunder). Bryant did all of his usual Kobe things against the Mavs - hitting jumpers from everywhere (everyone talks about Rip being the best midrange shooter in the league, but my money is on Bryant) and finishing acrobatic plays at the rim. The sheer force of his will was amazing. He scored 22 in the fourth quarter, eight more in overtime, and 52 for the game, while grabbing 11 boards. (Note: Jason Kidd may be solid defending big guards, but only if "big guards" doesn't include Kobe Bryant.) Even more impressive than those numbers was his work at the free throw line. Somehow - maybe because of the injured pinkie - he missed seven of his first 10 free throw attempts (my theory is that he was distracted by all the MVP chants!). It was downright bizarre. But in true Kobe fashion, he turned his steely resolve to sinking free throws, shaking off the 30% start to hit his last 17 free throws. Why isn't anyone talking about this?

All told, there were a lot of MVP chants coming down from the rafters of Staples, Quicken, and the New Orleans Arena this weekend.

Before I let you go, I'll go ahead and give you my vote for MVP now. If the season ended today, I would order the big four as follows:

1. Kobe Bryant. He qualifies under the Oscar-esque lifetime achievement criteria. He's the #2 scorer in the league and the most dangerous end-game finisher since Jordan (although LeBron is closing fast). His team is on top of the West. He's playing with a broken pinky. He's not as good defensively as everyone thinks (Roy abused him repeatedly on Friday, eventually forcing a switch), but is still far superior on that end to 90% of the superstars in the league. What more is he supposed to do? I've never been a huge Kobe Bryant fan and remain convinced that he's one of the most contrived people on planet earth, but no matter how you define this award - most valuable, best player, most talented, best stats - Kobe is in the mix, if not the clear favorite.

2. Chris Paul. He could go up or down depending on whether his team goes up and down. If the Hornets win the West, I'm afraid Mr. Bryant's mantle might have to remain empty. And when it comes to pure value, there might not be anybody who makes a better case than Paul. He's turned David West and Tyson Chandler into All-Star level players, is the most disruptive perimeter defender in the league (I've never seen anybody who can pick pockets like Paul), and on his way to the first 20 points/10 assists per game season in a really long time.

3. LeBron James. LeBron might have actually passed Kobe for the imaginary title of "best player in the league" now that he's playing with ferocious intensity each night, starting to impact games on the defensive end, and leading the NBA in fourth quarter points (20% more than the nearest player - Bryant). Plus, his numbers are insane and his valuable is off the charts. That said, the MVP award almost never goes to teams with middling records. In fact, a look at the entire 50-year history of the MVP Award reveals that the winner has come from the first or second best team in the league a remarkable 90 percent of the time (47 of 52 years). The only exceptions were the following:

1956 - Bob Pettit (his St. Louis Hawks finished third in a four-team conference and sixth in an eight-team NBA in the first year the MVP was awarded)

1975 - Bob McAdoo (the Buffalo Braves were third in the East and third overall)
1976 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Kareem's fourth of six trophies came in his first year with the Lakers, when they finished fourth in the West and ninth overall)

1979 - Moses Malone (his Rockets were third in the West and sixth overall)

1988 - Michael Jordan (the Bulls finished third in the East and seventh overall)

I know LeBron is having an amazing year, but Kobe had an amazing year in 2006 but was crushed in the MVP voting. James himself had an amazing season in 2007 but was thwarted by Dirk Nowitzki. Plus, LeBron is trying to buck historical trends in a year featuring plenty of more traditional candidates (KG plays on the #1 in the NBA, Kobe for the current #2 in the West and #4 overall, and Paul for the #3 in the West and #5 overall). If the Lakers or Hornets win the West, are voters really going to dig down to the #4 or #5 seed in the Least? Come on.

4. Kevin Garnett. I know it isn't his fault that he got injured (which is pretty much as rare as a lunar eclipse - coincidentally, they occurred at the same time), but the fact remains that he missed nine games (Boston went 7-2 in those contests) and his numbers are down. Stats aren't everything, but in a year like this, they put him back a few paces.

The Dawn of the Devin Harris Era

You had to know it was coming ... yes, it's a post celebrating Devin Harris' triumphant debut as a member of the New Jersey Nets.

Despite not getting the start (and how long will Lawrence Frank stubbornly keep Marcus Williams in as the starter?), Harris turned in a beauty last night. He came off the bench in a tie game and promptly rattled of a 10-1 run to close the quarter and when he left in the second, the Nets were up 15.

He scored 21 points, hit three jumpers from downtown, threw down a massive dunk in traffic, consistently split the double team, got his team playing at a fast pace, and, well, basically did all the things he's always done and received so little credit for. It was impressive enough that the Nets fans started chanting "Dev-in Har-ris!" during the last few minutes of the game. Oh, and New Jersey scored a season-high (by far) 120 points in a victory over Milwaukee.

If you are tired of hearing me rave about Devin Harris, then I have good news and bad. The bad is that I'm not going to stop. The good is that for the remainder of this post, at least, I'm going to expand those raves to his entire team. That's right, folks, I'm about to heap praise on the New Jersey Nets. Buckle your seat belts.

Actually, a better request would be to hear me out. I know the Nets have come to epitomize mediocrity in the past few years and that the mere sight of them popping up on TNT in April is enough to make a grown man cry. But if you want to get out ahead of the next hip NBA bandwagon, you might want to purchase a Dr. J throwback and a Nets hat.

Lets start with the obvious: LeBron is going to be playing in Brooklyn in 2010. Look, there's no stopping it. The Nets are going to BK and Jay-Z is going to get his hands on the best player in basketball. The Cavs are an aging team with a mediocre coach in a city known as "The Mistake by the Lake." I don't care if he's from Ohio, there's no way LBJ is staying.

Beyond that, a James' free agent signing in June of '08 means that Vince Carter, by default, is no longer there (or else they wouldn't have the cap room). So we've got addition by subtraction going as well.

Enter LeBron for Carter, merge him with the current roster, fast forward through the next two years of maturation for the young players and suddenly, you have an Eastern Conference power. Even if they don't acquire a single good rotation player from this point forward (impossible considering all the draft picks, Rod Thorn's solid track record, and the fact that players will be lining up to take a paycut in order to play with LeBron in Brooklyn), they will still have the following nine-man rotation when the 2010 season kicks off:

PG - Devin Harris, 27
SG - Richard Jefferson, 30
SF - LeBron James, 26
PF - Nenad Kristic, 27
C - DeSagana Diop, 28
B - Josh Boone, 26
B - Sean Williams, 24
B - Marcus Williams, 25
B - Mo Ager, 26

You could swap Boone and Williams for Kristic and Diop, depending on how everyone develops, but look at the ages on that roster! The average age of the top nine guys will be 27, which is the average player's prime. But at the same time, every single guy (with the possible exception of Ager) will have at least three years of legit experience. Boone can play, Sean Williams could be a stud, and nobody properly values Diop as a lowpost defender and rebounder. If Kristic can ever get back to 100%, they will have a fantastic interior foursome to go with LeBron, Jefferson, and Harris on the perimeter. And that's before the inevitable upgrades (some of them significant) that will occur with about half of the roster spots.

Mark it down now. The Nets and Blazers are going to be battling in the Finals in June of 2011. And it all started last night with the dawn of the Devin Harris Era.

You've Got to be Kidd-ing Me

Like that title? The NBA is pun-tastic!

I've been debating whether to post this (especially because my next post is going to be about how awesome Devin Harris is), because it will just lead to people calling me a Jason Kidd hater or other such nonsense. Just because I was, am, and will always be against the Harris-Kidd trade doesn't mean that I hate Jason Kidd. In fact, Kidd has been responsible for bringing me great joy in many instances. Here are just a few:

1. Watching him lead Cal to an upset over Duke in the second round of the 1993 NCAA Tournament (one of my five favorite tourney games of all time).

2. Listening to "People Wanna Know What the Kidd Did" by Kidd himself on B-Ball's Finest, a transcendent album that paired NBA ballers with rappers.

3. Seeing him breath life into Team USA last summer.

So I've got nothing against Kidd. Sure, he has more than his fair share of domestic squabbles and his free throw routine is incredibly annoying, but the good outweighs the bad, I think.

Anyway, disclaimers aside, this post isn't even really about Kidd. Nor is it about Crazy Avery Johnson. Or Harris. It's about Kevin Harlen and Doug Collins the TNT duo that single-handedly ruined last night's telecast of the Spurs and Mavs.

How did they ruin it? Simply by crediting every single good Dallas play to Kidd, even when he wasn't involved. A simple handoff from Kidd to Josh Howard was followed by a sweet, twisting layup by Howard. The call from Harlen: "Jason Kidd does it again!" Dirk gets an iso in the high post and finds a cutter (as he's done thousands of times). The call from Collins: "Jason Kidd is just so infectious. Passing has become contagious on this team." Brandon Bass pump fakes, drives, and throws down on Tim Duncan (by the way, Bass is going to be a handful for Duncan if these times meet in the postseason). The call from Harlen: "Bass with the dunk! Oh my, this team is playing at such a fast pace thanks to Kidd."

I mean, it was ridiculous. Kidd played okay in the contest, dishing out 10 assists and executing a nice steal and layup in the third quarter, but he was about the 7th most impressive player on the floor. Dirk was a beast getting to the foul line, Bass was terrific, Howard looked really good, Manu has his moments, Finley (once again) turned on the Time Machine, and Duncan was fantastic. Why are we getting so excited about Kidd?

I understand this is how the media rolls. They get all worked up whenever there is a trade or a player coming back from injury and they ascribe everything that happens to said player. But this was beyond anything I've ever seen, probably because Kidd's value has always been based, at least in part, on intangibles, which gave them liberty to credit Kidd with everything from a teammate's good pass to the consistency of the butter on the popcorn. They had no constraints.

Anyway, the whole thing made the game unbearable. And if it keeps up, then I'm skipping all Mavs games until the playoffs.

Atlanta Hawks: Going as Far as Josh Smith Can Take Them

I know it is rather uncool to discuss the back end of the Eastern Conference playoff race, but the bottom line is that if you make the postseason, anything can happen (see: Nuggets over Sonics in 1994 or Warriors over Mavericks last spring). And while the East seems to have a pretty clear hierarchy in place with Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, and (to some extent) Orlando out ahead of the pack, there are a few dangerous teams lurking in the bottom of the bracket. The Wizards could be potent if they ever get Arenas back to pair with their improved defense. The Nets are going to be more dangerous once Devin Harris gets healthy. I even like the Bulls now that they are rolling out a young lineup of Hinrich, Sefalosha, Deng, Thomas, and Noah. As long as they keep Larry Hughes off the floor, they could be a tricky 8th seed. (And believe that the Pistons don't want to see them.)

The team that really intrigues me in that also ran grouping is the Atlanta Hawks. They are playing better defense this year, they pass the ball well for a young team, and they have the speed and athleticism to get up and down the floor. They seem like the kind of squad that could give a wobbly top seed (say, Orlando) trouble in an opening round. And if they do, it will be Josh Smith leading the way.

The Hawks depend a great deal on Joe Johnson's physical playmaking ability and are deeply indebted to Al Horford for shoring up their interior defense, but if this squad is going to make the playoffs and be competitive, it will be because Smith has undergone his usual second half metamorphosis.

Put simply, Smith has crazy splits:

Pre All-Star Break
2004-05 - 8/5/2, 1.8 blocks
2005-06 - 9/6/1, 2.3 blocks
2006-07 - 15/8/3, 2.7 blocks

Post All-Star Break
2004-05 - 12/8/2, 2.2 blocks
2005-06 - 15/8/4, 3.1 blocks
2006-07 - 19/9/4, 3.1 blocks

Put another way, here were the improvements each year, from the first half to the second half:

2004-05 - 4/3/0, 0.4 blocks
2005-06 - 6/2/3, 0.8 blocks
2006-07 - 4/1/1, 0.4 blocks

I know those numbers don't look enormous, but those are significant upgrades. And while the bump in his rookie year makes sense, the other two increases can't be tied to specific career benchmarks. In fact, it is strange to see a good player go up, then down, then up, then down, then back up again. It seems to indicate that he really is a "second half player."

Of course, as soon as I decided to highlight these trends, Smith came out of the break sluggish, posting three straight subpar games. However, on Saturday night he went for 30 and 12 with a pair of blocks and steals. Was it just a particularly good game or the sign of things to come? This leads to another question: were Smith's past improvements based more on truly great second half play or was it simply because he was so inconsistent during the first half of the year?

This season, for the first time ever, Smith has been playing at a high level from opening night. In fact, his first half splits for 2007-08 present an even starker contrast to his old first half splits than do his second half numbers. Compare his first half numbers from this season to any of his prior first half splits:

2004-05 - 8/5/2, 1.8 blocks
2005-06 - 9/6/1, 2.3 blocks
2006-07 - 15/8/3, 2.7 blocks
2007-08 - 18/8/4, 3.2 blocks

Based on the previous three years, Smith could reasonably expect to boost his scoring by over 4 points a game, his rebounding by 2, and his assists by just over 1 per. He'll even block another .5 shots per contest. And if you add those increases to his current numbers, he suddenly looks like this for the second half:

2008 (projected second half) - 22/10/5, 3.7 blocks

Yikes. If he really does hike those numbers up, he becomes an absolute monster. Those are KG-in-his-MVP-year stats with even more blocks.

This is why Josh Smith is one of the true players to watch in the East. If there are real reasons for his previous improvements - increased focus, exceptional stamina that allows him to play at the same level while others wear down, film studies that iron out bad habits, coaching, and so on - then it seems entirely possible that Smith will once again see a sizable uptick in his production. If he does so, and arrives at Garnett production levels, the Hawks would have to be seen as a dangerous playoff team.

If, on the other hand, Smith has just finally rectified first half problems of the past - and is already at his 2007-08 ceiling - than there probably won't be reason to get too worked up about Atlanta (in other words, it will be like every other year).

Stay tuned.

If All Else Fails ...

Nobody is quite sure how the Shaq trade is going to work out in the Land of the Sun, but one thing is for sure ... the Diesel's presence in Phoenix is making things interesting.

After his debut against the Lakers on Wednesday, nobody could tell for sure whether he's going to be able to keep up (looks a little bleak), whether he can turn Amare Stoudemire into a solid defensive player (looks really bleak), or even whether he can make Phoenix better. But one thing is for sure, Shaq is interesting.

Whether it was diving on the floor for a loose ball or trying to pull the rim down on a dunk, he got our attention. Arriving at work the next morning (Veritas Prep, in Malibu, California - gotta represent!), it didn't matter if you were a former employee of the Detroit Pistons, a guy that only watches the Suns, or even someone who hates the NBA (we have all three), people wanted to talk about Shaq.

The co-owner of our business (as well as a successful film producer), Chad Troutwine, led a rousing discussion on the Suns-Lakers game, one that lasted quite a bit longer than our usual sidebars. And this afternoon, we're probably going to chat a little bit about the upcoming Suns-Celtics game.

So even if this thing goes south, it has people talking. That counts for something.

One Simple Trade Request

With all of the trades that have happened and the promise of more to come, it probably seems greedy to ask for yet another deal. But that's what I'm doing right now, because there is one remaining trade that would ensure even more excitement in May and June ... Mike Miller and Kyle Lowry to the Cavs.

Chad Ford mentioned this possibility in his column on possible trades today and I admit that it made my heart race a little bit.

I've long been a Mike Miller fan in spite of his poor defense and egregious hair stylings. I think he's an underrated passer and athlete and obviously a fantastic shooter, so he's got value to any team (notably Denver). But he couldn't possibly more better anywhere else than he'd be in Cleveland. Put him on the wing and let him shoot threes all day, courtesy of LeBron. It's genius!

I suspect that Miller would be the focus of such a deal, but to me, the secret weapon for the Cavs is Lowry. He's fast, tough, and tenacious and would be a massive upgrade at the point over Larry Hughes (Boobie would still get his 25-30 mpg as a combo guard) and would in fact allow Hughes to go the wing where he's had more success this year. Check out how the Cavs' lineup would look in a few months:

G - Kyle Lowry
G - Mike Miller
F - LeBron James
F - Drew Gooden
C - Big Z (giving my spell checker a rest)
6th - Larry Hughes
B - Daniel Gibson
B - Anderson Verajon
B - Sasha Pavlovic

Now that's a solid nine-man rotation. Gibson can play with Hughes and Lowry with Miller, which always gives Cleveland an attacking guard on one side of LeBron and a shooter on the other (so long as they ban Hughes from taking jumpers). Which means that the Cavs would be right back in the mix in the East and would add another contender in that depleted conference.

Anything that keeps the East more interesting and keeps LeBron in the playoffs longer counts as a good idea in my book.

Now all we need is for Memphis to do something idiotic ... which is the easy part.

All-Star Thoughts

Now that the hoopla surrounding All-Star Weekend is subsiding, it feels like a good time to post my thoughts. Why? Because I never let an NBA story die!

Actually, I've just been busy. But here were my favorite things about Saturday and Sunday. (For my thoughts on the Rookie Challenge, see the previous post.)

1. Dwight Howard gets all the love. Fame and adoration are fickle things in professional sports, here today and gone the next. Even more mysterious are the origins of certain legends. Why do some players turn into instant starts and others struggle to get the hype? In some cases, we'll never know. But will never be a problem with Dwight Howard. He's been on a steady rise in NBA circles since miseason last year when he threw down that crazy, last second alley-oop on Tim Duncan's head. He followed that seminal moment up with the "sticker dunk" and "kiss the rim dunk" at last year's dunk contest (when he was robbed by horrendous judging on the part of Michael Jordan) and then a monster second half to the season. This year he broke out with a big first month and then stayed in the news when Stan Van Gundy called him out for not rebounding ... which he followed with a 24-rebound performance in the last game before the break.

Now he's become a bonafide star, showing off his comic chops as well as his electric skill and athleticism. He stole the show during the dunk contest, displaying such grace and creativity that even Gerald Green's classic "birthday cake dunk" was relegated to second billing. Granted, Howard didn't even really dunk the ball on his "Superman dunk" (many are saying that it meets the technical definition of a dunk because it was "thrown downward into the basket" but as my buddy Stump put it, "It failed the 'I know it when I see it' test"), but his tip dunk was insane, and the behind the backboard throwdown was a nice twist on Andre Igoudala's classic (leaving his head on the other side of the backboard was pretty cool). Plus, he conducted himself in the joyful fashion of a kindergartener on recess. Then, to top it all off, he went for 16 and 9 during the game on Sunday and even threw an alley-oop to LeBron. Needless to say, he became a "star of stars" on this weekend.

2. Chris Paul is incredible. Once the East pulled away at the end of the game, it was clear that Paul wouldn't be receiving the MVP award, which is a shame because he was the most dynamic player in the contest and he nearly led an amazing comeback on his home floor. 16 and 14 is nothing to sneeze at, and that's before you consider all the steals or the crazy ballhandling stunts. The move that he made late in the third quarter, when he faked a bounce pass by spinning back into a dribble was absolutely incredible (and pretty much completely ignored by the announcing crew). The great thing about Paul is that he can play his normal style of basketball and be electric, without infringing on the "ridiculously unselfish, no blatant attempts to show anyone up" style of an All-Star game. Everything Paul does is exciting because of his speed, but ultimately pretty subtle. If you watch any Hornets game, he will do all the same things he did on Sunday: throw ridiculous passes, lull people into submission with his sick handles, drop key threes and floaters, and pick people's pockets. None of that comes off as "trying too hard" (an All-Star no-no), yet it is all entertaining AND helps his team win. Which leads us to ...

3. Brandon Roy makes a great debut. I've tabbed Roy "The Perimeter Duncan" for his cerebral, steady play, instinctual ability to lead, and preference for playing the game the right way. Therefore, I kind of assumed that he would disappear into the landscape, much like the real Duncan. I am pleased that I was so wrong. Wages of Wins had Roy as the best player on the floor on Sunday, Byron Scott played him for all the big minutes, and his line of 18-9-5 was downright sparkling. Like Paul, he played with a perfect blend of passion and unselfishness. His only downfall was when he tried to throw down on an alleyoop that was beyond his realm - a mistake he rectified late in the game when he opted to take a lob and lay it in rather than risk a miss. As always, Roy played with a poise well beyond his years.

Rookie-Sophomore Game

Another All-Star Weekend, another Rookie Challenge. I don't know how many more 35-point blowouts we have to suffer through before they blend the teams, but whatever. Tonight's game featured all the usual components of this event: terrible defense, lots of dunks, a handful of surprising performances, and a bunch of screaming kids. To the latter point, let me say that I think it is great that they let the kids come to these games, but is there something that can be done about the mics? Two years in a row now, you can't even here the announcers over the wailing coming from the crowd. It shounds like people riding on a rollercoaster or being hung off a balcony.

Anyway.

Here is a quick 1-through-18 breakdown of the players involved in this game. It isn't a list of the who played the best, but rather who made the strongest impression (although, granted, those are sort of the same things):

1. Jordan Farmar. The Sophomores "let Boobie spin" (see my Eastern Conference Finals posts from last May for more information) to the tune of 11 threes tonight, but I thought Farmar was the guy that really impressed. He went for 17 and 12 with 3 steals while shooting a terrific percentage, playing good defense (!), and running the team. All in 21 minutes.

2. Boobie Gibson. Speaking of 21 minutes, that is how long it took Gibson to drain a Challenge record 11 threes and score 33 points en route to the MVP award. I thought Farmar played even better, but man, Boobie was raining jumpers from all angles. His 5-of-6 stretch to break the game open in the first have was mighty impressive. Lost in all the hoopla was his usual fantastic body control and instintive ability to track down loose balls.

3. Rudy Gay. Gay's jump shot is one of the prettiest in the game and his athleticism is out of this world. Tonight he barely had to break a sweat on his way to 22 points on 9-of-12 shooting.

4. Al Horford. He would be even higher, but for some reason he only played 21 minutes in the contest. Horford was a beast while he was out there though, going for 19 and 7 on 8-of-10 shooting. If only Kevin Durant and Jeff Green were interested in passing, he might have had 30. Horford looked even faster and more agile than normal tonight and probably helped his Rookie of the Year campaign by outplaying Durant.

5. Brandon Roy. I'm sure Nate and the rest of the Portland staff/front office is thrilled by Roy's 25 minutes, with more to come on Sunday. While he didn't play quite as well as the guys ahead of him on this list, Roy certainly didn't disappoint. He got others involved with 7 assists and managed to score 17 points of his own while also throwing down a sick dunk early in the contest. He looked every bit like the most accomplished NBA player on the floor.

6. Sean Williams. I've seen him play a lot this year so I wasn't terribly surprised to see Williams perform well. That said, I had no idea he was that fast or could handle the ball that well. The play where he grabbed a rebound, went through his legs to gather it, travelled the length of the court, and then threw it off the glass to himself with the highlight of the night. He had 17 and 10 in just 18 minutes and looked like a tremendous prospect. Why are the Nets playing Josh Boone and Nenad Kristic over him, again?

7. Rajon Rondo. I'm a Rondo homer, but he quitely had a really nice night for the Sophs. He had six assists to go with his usual three steals and was a catalyst in turning the contest into a running game. The Rookies had 24 turnovers (against only 9 for the Sophomores), which was due in large part to Rondo's defense.

8. LaMarcus Aldridge. He spent much of the game looking a little skittish and playing a step behind, but he really found his range in the second half and used his speed and height to crash the glass and get out in transition. He went for 18 and 9 with 4 assists, 3 steals, and no turnovers while logging 34 minutes.

9. Jamario Moon. He actually defended the rim on ocassion while also attacking the basket on offense and even hitting a three. Nothing amazing, but a solid performance.

10. Kevin Durant. Durant really disappointed me. He finished with a very nice stat line of 23 points (on 10-for-19 shooting), 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals, but he also had 5 turnovers and more terrible shots than I could count. Plus, he was really the only guy on the floor that totally stopped the ball when it came to him, choosing to dribble around for upward of 10 seconds before hoisting a fadeaway off of one leg. I know he's going to be amazing at some point, but the light bulb still needs to come on for him.

11. Ronnie Brewer. He used his athleticism to make some plays on the glass and at the rim, but was mostly pretty quiet.

12. Juan Carlos Navarro. Wound up with pretty nice stats and some sweet jumpers, but literally did all his damage in the last five minues during garbage time.

13. Mike Conley. Great speed and unselfishness which led to 8 dimes, but also committed five turnovers and seemed to be a bit out of control at times.

14. Yi Jianlin. Not his kind of game at all, but that step back jumper he had was pure in the third quarter. That play alone keeps him out of the bottom four.

15. Paul Millsap. Didn't do much of anything out there but the Sophs made some big runs while he was on the court.

16. Luis Scola. Same story, different team. He didn't do much at all, but had the best +/- of anyone on the Rookies team.

17. Andrea Bargnani. I'm just not impressed by his three-point jacking ways.

18. Jeff Green. How he made this team over Al Thornton is a mystery. How he played a whopping 34 minutes is utterly perplexing, when you consider that he was probably the least effective player on the court. Even with a 7-point flurry in just under a minute, he still finished 4-of-12 against no defense with 3 turnovers and 3 fouls.

LeBron James: Potentially Loving Jerry Stackhouse

ESPN is reporting that the NBA might have reason to scrap Jerry Stackhouse from the Jason Kidd trade (which is on hold anyway thanks to Devean George) due to comments he made indicating that he was staying in Dallas. His confidence in a New Jersey buyout and return to Dallas make it pretty clear that he had conversations with Mark Cuban, which violate league rules.

If the NBA does get involved and pull Stackhouse from the deal, it will force Dallas to either go back to the drawing board and make a worse deal (likely including Keith Van Horn, which would create a luxury tax nightmare) or abandon the trade. Ironically, I believe this would be best for the Mavs, as Devin Harris is undervalued in the present and certainly going to provide more than Kidd going forward. That said, Dallas will probably find a way to cram this thing through, if only because their fans are expecting it.

But if they don't? Suddenly Kidd is back on the market, with the trade deadline looming, and tons of anger in his heart. You think New Jersey would keep him if that happened? They can't! Which means that the Cavs could be right back in the mix. Granted, Cleveland still doesn't have anything that the Nets would want, but if Rod Thorn were desperate enough, he might just go for something terrible, rather than deal with Captain Headache the rest of the season.

And if the Cavs were able to somehow come away with Jason Kidd and turn LeBron's James increasingly fierce frown upside down, they would probably have to find a way to give Jerry Stackhouse some sort of award, or at least a thank you note.