Section F Sports

Artest to Houston

2008-07-30T00:13:00.002-05:00

Well, what to make of the Artest trade? My first thought is that he's more trouble than he's worth and a known ball-stopper, so why bother?

But the more I thought about it, the more I'm convinced that Houston is the perfect place for him. Consider the following:

- Artest seems to really like Rick Adelman.
- Donte Green was literally never going to play behind Tracy McGrady
- The future first round pick will likely be mid to late 20's (teams don't even want this pick anymore because of the cap hold; they'd rather have an early second rounder to play with)
- Battier and Artest form one of the best defensive forward tandems in recent NBA history
- Artest can operate on the block, freeing Yao at the high post and T-Mac on the perimeter
- He has the kind of mixed bag persona that could ruin the Rockets ... or take to them to the next level, and at this point, you take the risk

Of course, Artest is coming off an injury -plagued season and now joins McGrady and Yao to form the most brittle trio in the league. And Houston now has three guys who play best at the same position (small forward, although all are versatile enough to fill out positions 2-through-4, certainly). But at Artest's salary and with his skill set ... why not?

Let's just hope he and Rafer Alston don't kill each other.

Bayless = Monta Ellis?

2008-07-16T23:25:00.003-05:00

So, we just had a baby girl which is very exciting, but also why the blog has dried up for the past week (and will remain so for another week, I would venture). But between changing diapers and swaddling blankets, I wanted to note that my Blazers are looking very smart indeed for their draft day moves that brought Jerryd Bayless to the Rose City. Of course, everyone pretty much assumed that anyway since Pritchard is a draft witch and I pretty much assumed it since I had Bayless #3 on my list of available prospects in this year's draft ... but it's nice to see some proof. Bayless is destroying the Vegas Summer League right now and looking like Monta Ellis with better defensive awareness and effort. He has the same limited "pure point guard" instincts, but I'm just not concerned about that with Brandon Roy (and Rudy Fernandez) on the floor. I mean, if Portland could have snagged Ellis this summer and paid up the rate of the #11 pick in the draft, how do you think the rest of the league would have felt? I suspect we might be about to find out.

The Chalmers Report, Vol. 4

2008-07-11T21:54:00.002-05:00

I don't want to break tradition here, so I'm whipping up another Chalmers Report for the final day of the Orlando Summer League.

Super Mario strugged with his shot a bit today in a 73-69 loss to the Magic, as he went just 3-for-9 and 1-for-4 from three. The said, he still got to the line with shocking ease (he shot like 60 free throws in the five games) and finished with 15 points while completely overwhelming Orlando's Cliff Hammonds on defense. Not his best game of the week, but it was still another solid performance.

Grade: B

(By the way, Courtney Lee was fantastic in this one, going for 30 and 5 and displaying a very nice midrange game. With him and Pietrus, the Magic made some dramatic and needed upgrades from Bogans, Evans, and Dooling. I stand by my prediction that they will be in the Finals next year.)

Chalmers Report, Vol. 3

2008-07-11T00:55:00.002-05:00

An interesting Chalmers Report tonight. Thursday's action featured a pretty exciting matchup between Super Mario and Russell Westbrook, who has been terrific (other than a 2-for-13 outing yesterday) in Orlando as well. The outcome was a bit of a mixed bag.

On the one hand, Chalmers played fewer minutes than in any other contest (due to the fact that the game became a blowout), but still finished with 11-4-4 on his best shooting performance to date. And the Heat destroyed the, um, No Names from OKC 101-71.

On the other hand, Westbrook really gave Chalmers trouble with his size and strength and reiterated what I've long assumed - that Mario is going to be much more effective on smaller, quicker players, where his effort and speed allows him to stay in front, while his length and quick hands force the turnovers. Like Rondo, Chalmers will probably have a hard time against the Westbrooks. But hey, that's what D Wade is for.

Besides, there is no need to dwell on the 19 points that Westbrook tallied when more praise for Chalmers was pouring in.

Lawrence Frank called him one of the three best players (if not the best) in the Orlando Summer League. Larry Bird said that he was the steal of the draft. Miami GM Randy Pfund proudly stated that they gave up a lot to get Chalmers. And Vinny Del Negro acknowledged that summer league results are hard to rely on but that Mario is one of those guys that "stick out."

As Adam Sandler once said on one of his comedy CD's, "Looking good out there. We're all looking good."

Grade: A-

Prediction: Josh Smith in L.A.

2008-07-11T00:53:00.002-05:00

Despite the fact that the Clippers are the Clippers and the Hawks have the opportunity to match any offer sheet that Josh Smih signs, I just have the sneaking suspicion that the athletic lefty is going to La-La Land. I can already imagine Baron Davis throwing him lobs.

It would certainly take the sting away from the Elton Brand defection and I have to say, at this point, the cursed Clips deserve him more than the disfunctional Hawks.

The Chalmers Report, Vol. 2

2008-07-09T23:26:00.002-05:00

Good news, Heat fans. Your team just signed Our Guy Chalmers. Terms were not disclosed, but this was as Anne as the nose on plain's face (to quote Arrested Development. The Chalmers love fest rolls on ...

As for the action on the court, Chalmers struggled a bit with his jumper (2-for-8) and his handle (7 turnovers), but still went for 23 and 6 and went a ridiculous 17-for-17 from the line.

Grade: B+

Chalmers Report, Vol. 1

2008-07-09T01:13:00.002-05:00

I'm going all in. Mario Chalmers is my new favorite player and to honor that, I'm launching the Chalmers Report, which I hope will be a regular feature on this space.

Volume 1 is devoted to Super Mario's second professional game, which took place in the Orlando Summer League earlier today. As I expressed in a previous post, I am a skeptic when it comes to summer leagues, but I still think it has some value as an additional lens through which we can view players. And the summer league lens continues to make Chalmers look good.

His Heat team went to 2-0 with a 90-81 victory over the Nets today and this time, there was no doubt about the primary factor in the win. Unlike the first contest, which saw Beasley dominate, this one was all Chalmers. In fact, Beasley was just as brutal this time as he was brilliant yesterday as he went 1-for-13 from the floor with 7 fouls and 5 turnovers. (Yikes.)

Our guy Chalmers (I'm calling him "our" guy instead of just "my" guy after the outpouring of positivity for M.C. in yesterday's comments sections), on the other hand, was terrific again, going for 19 and 9 with 3 steals. Plus, he hounded ballhandlers all over the court yet again and is looking like a holy terror in the making on the defensive end of the floor.

Grade: A

Mario Chalmers' Press Man, At Your Service

2008-07-07T21:01:00.003-05:00

Just wanted to drop a note to boast about my boy Chalmers.

Everyone is talking about the 28 that Beasley thew up today - and for good reason - but Super Mario quietly showed why I've been so excited about his pro prospects. I managed to watch a good portion of the game on TiVo and filled in any gaps with some fantastic scouting from my boy Josh Stump.

The verdict: Chalmers is going to be a huge factor for the Heat next year. He showed better playmaking skills than even I expected, his jumper still looked quiet and consistent (as always), and his D was just tremendous. He was physical and quick and doing all the Rondo kinds of things that Seattle spent the #4 pick hoping to get from Russell Westbrook. In fact, his defense was so stifling that it left everyone unsure of how to comment on Derrick Rose's performance. The Bulls' new franchise point guard had a rough outing, going just 3-for-8 with five turnovers. So ... bad showing, right? Not so fast. I think he was just having a tough time with the "straight jacket!" (Kevin Harlen voice) that Chalmers had him in. I think we have to wait and see on Rose. (And that's assuming we care at all about summer league results. See: Banks, Marcus. See: Belinelli, Marco.)

But I don't think we have to wait and see on Chalmers. He has been removed from the college courts where he served as the undersized shooting guard on a loaded Kansas team and transplanted in a bigger, faster setting, where he himself looks bigger and faster, and, well, better.

I'm very excited, to say the least.

B Diddy Runs the City

2008-07-01T20:12:00.003-05:00

Baron Davis is coming home.

The L.A. native just agreed to a five year, $65 million deal to play with the Clippers. This comes amid speculation that Elton Brand will take a slight pay cut and re-up with the Clips as well in an attempt to pull a "Mini Celtics" and take the franchise from zeroes to heroes overnight.

Will it work? That remains to be seen, but I'm not going to be among the many doubters who will point to things like a thin bench, limited leftover cap space, and a lack of winning pedigree among the star players. That's because people were saying the same exact things about Boston last year, and, as we saw in Beantown, the hunger for a title can transform a whole lot of things.

I expect L.A. to make a run at a few Posey/P.J. types such as Ruben Patterson (had a brief sting for the Clippers last year) and Alonzo Mourning. Heck, maybe they will even go after Posey and P.J. The bottom line is that the new vogue in the NBA is not to glom on to an established contender ala Michael Finley to the Spurs or Malone/Payton to the Lakers, but rather to get a bunch of vets together and go rejuvenate a dreadful franchise. So I'd be shocked - shocked - if people don't follow Baron and Brand to the Staples Center.

Throw in the fact that they have Chris Kaman at center, Al Thornton at small forward, and the Mobley/Gordon duo at shooting guard and you could argue that they have the pieces to finish in the top four in the West and then make a run at a title.

I know it seems crazy that the idea of adding one oft-injured, shot-mongering point guard would be enough to warrant title aspirations, but I'm telling you, this is the new way to go about buying up these O'Brien trophies.

New WhatifSports Column

2008-06-27T16:05:00.002-05:00

I've thrown myself headlong back into the mix over at my former home, WhatifSports.com, and will be posting blog entries for their new Playbook feature.

The first post, detailing why Carmelo Anthony is in the wrong place, at the wrong time, is up now.

Initial Draft Recap

2008-06-27T00:45:00.003-05:00

I'm sure I will have more detailed opinions in the days to come, but I wanted to be sure to slam out some initial thoughts on the 2008 NBA Draft. Considering the relative lack of strength at the top of the draft, but the depth throughout, I thought there would be several teams making great showings tonight. Instead, there were just a handful of really effective drafts and a whole lot of mysteries. Here were the highlights and lowlights:

The Big Winners

Portland - What a shocker. Kevin Pritchard is just mopping the floor with the rest of the GM's in the league. I personally was even more excited when it looked like they had Bayless and Arthur in the fold with a chance to add Chalmers and CDR as well, but then I realized that they already have too many players on the roster. A "boil down" trade was inevitable. I have no idea what to make of this Batum fellow, but the word is that he could have been a lottery pick had he avoided the cloud of medical uncertainty in the weeks leading up to the draft (I found it ironic that Portland drafted one guy with medical questions - Arthur - and then traded him for the other guy with medical questions). And as I'm fond of pointing out, there is a real lack of quality young small forwards in the NBA pipeline these days, so even if the odds are long that Batum works out and becomes a Rudy Gay type, you probably have to take that chance.

Besides, this isn't about Batum anyway, or even the 413 future picks they stockpiled. This is about landing the guy that in my mind is the third best player in this draft and the ideal running mate for Brandon Roy. Seriously, how in the world did KP land Jerryd Bayless? He has good size, can stretch the floor with his shooting, take the pressure of off Roy, guard quicker point guards, and do everything else Portland needs at the position. He gets dinged for being a combo guard, but I find that hypocritical, since people love combo guards these days. And as I've mentioned repeatedly in regard to Mario Chalmers, the Blazers don't need a pure point since Roy has so many playmaking skills. Bayless is absolutely perfect. Plus, he's just a really good player. I'm on record predicting that Bayless will join the Paul Pierce, Caron Butler, and Danny Granger group of college studs that were projected as top-five picks only to inexplicably slide down to double digits. Another fantastic draft for Portland.

Grade: A

Miami - The other team that just killed it tonight was Miami. They resisted the urge to trade the #2 pick and wound up with a 20-10 machine in Michael Beasley. He will be able to play the 4 and allow Marion to run the floor at the 3, or they can go small and play them at the 5 and 4, respectively. I could never understand the rumors suggesting that Miami wanted to avoid Beasley - the guy is 19 years old and coming off a 26 and 12 season as a college freshman. Yikes.

That said, Beasley wasn't even my favorite pick for Miami. I know this comes as no surprise to any of you, but I thought the trade for Chalmers was brilliant. I'm just absolutely sure that Chalmers is going to wind up being one of the top 10 players in this draft, so to get him for two future second rounders is insane. Not only that, but all the things I said about Super Mario being perfect for Portland apply to Miami. Just as the Blazers run their offense through Roy, the Heat obviously do the same with D Wade. Miami needs a guy who can alleviate ball pressure, hit threes, add speed to the lineup, and guard opposing point guards. Check, check, check, check. I was so dismayed for Chalmers when he slipped out of the first round and felt even worse when he wound up in Minnesota backing up OJ Mayo (you know, back when OJ Mayo was on the Wolves, for all of three hours). The Miami trade was sweet redemption. And now the Heat have 4/5 of a legit starting lineup and are right back in the mix in the East. Oh, and they also grabbed another rotation guy in the wildly underrated Darnell Jackson.

(By the way, isn't it weird that so many underrated draft steals came from Kansas, winner of the national title? You would think the exposure would send the needle the other way, but I suppose their balanced attack suppressed the stats enough to generate a bunch of great value picks. Kind of odd.)

Grade: A

Other Winners

Nets - I didn't love the Jefferson trade earlier in the day, but I thought they had a really good draft. Brook Lopez doesn't strike me as a world beater, but anyone who can go for 20 a night as a center in the Pac-10 is probably good enough to take at #10 in a draft thin on stars. The Ryan Anderson pick at #21 was puzzling considering that Darrell Arthur was on the board, but New Jersey more than made up for that when they snagged Chris Douglas-Roberts at #40. That's right, 4-0. What on earth? I've seen some slights in my day, but this was bizarre. CDR can score, defend, play multiple positions, run the break, handle the ball ... I mean, what more do teams want? I promise you that he will be better than at least 25 of the guys drafted before him.

Grade: B+ B

Rockets - Brilliant work by Houston to grab Nicolas Batum at #25, knowing that they could hold the Spurs or Blazers ransom. They wound up extracting both Darrell Arthur (only the steal of the draft) and Joey Dorsey (really the perfect guy to add to the Rockets mix) when they started with just the 25th pick in a sketchy draft. Impressive. Arthur was already a top 7-8 type player in this draft by my estimation and now I think he will be a man possessed to make the whole world pay for this weird kidney rumor that cost him a whole lot of money. The Scola-Landry duo was effective at power forward last year for Houston, but those guys better have their hard hats on if they are going to hold off the super talented and now highly motivated Arthur.

[Update: It turns out that the Rockets moved Darrell Arthur to Memphis for Donte Greene. I still liked that they manufactured the #33 pick - Dorsey, who should help - by snatching a player desired by the Blazers and Spurs at #25, but I was a much bigger fan of Arthur than Greene.]

Grade: B+

Bulls - It would have been an A had they taken CDR instead of Sonny Weems at #39 (and I even like Weems), but as it stands, they get high marks just for taking Derrick Rose, who may wind up being a transcendent player.

Grade: B+

The Mysteries

The Late Trade - I'm still trying to wrap my head around the Memphis-Minnesota trade. Let me state first that if we are confused about this one, it probably shouldn't come as any surprise. I mean, it's Kevin McHale and Chris Wallace here. And I guess that is the only explanation. Because seriously ... what the hell?

Minny had the chance to draft Love at #3 but clearly thought it was a better idea to take Mayo as a bargaining chip. But all they used that for was to bring in Mike Miller and the horrible Brian Cardinal contract. But that's beside the point - my biggest complaint with this trade for the Wolves is that they now are building their team around a below-the-rim lowpost duo of Love and Al Jefferson. They are going to give up 110 points a game.

As for the Grizzlies, they are truly hopeless. Who knows, maybe they are trying to arm themselves for a run at Beasley or another cost-cutting fiasco, but as it currently stands, they have about 19 guards on their roster. Seriously, the solution to the Conley-Lowry-Crittenden logjam at point guard is to bring in OJ Mayo (and Marco Jaric)? Nice. The good news is that they used the #28 pick to take Donte Green, who can now sit behind Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick. This team is a complete train wreck.

I know people think this was a blockbuster trade and I guess it was, but when you consider that these two squads are going to win about 35 games combined next year, I just have a hard time getting too worked up about the whole thing. In fact, I'm really just bummed that Mike Miller won't be going to a contender in exchange for cap relief and a sack of used Kleenex.

[Update: Somehow, the Arthur acquisition made things so much better for me. Now they at least have a guy to play at every position on the floor - PG Conley/Lowry, SG Mayo, SF Gay, PF Arthur, C Marc Gasol. They have still made a flurry of terrible moves, but if they can turn Conley into a legit big and let Lowry play the Chalmers/Bayless role next to a playmaking 2, they might be on to something. Perhaps a post on this is in order.]

The Bucks - So let me get this straight ... they trade for Richard Jefferson and then go ahead and take a small forward with the #8 pick? What are these people doing? There were so many guys who could help Milwaukee in this draft but instead they took a guy who has to ride pine behind RJ. Why? The good news though is that they drafted the crappy Luc Richard Mbah a Moute at #37. Oh wait, he's a small forward as well. John Hammond really is a genius.

The Bobcats - If I understand things correctly, the plan for Charlotte was to somehow land a center so they could move Okafor to the 4, Wallace to the 3, Richardson to the 2, and roll with Felton at the 1. So when Brook Lopez fell to them at #9, what did they do? Take 5' 11" DJ Augustin, of course! Then, at #20, they used Denver's pick to snag workout wonder (and certain bust) Alexis Ajinca. Bravo. They could have had Lopez and Chalmers and instead ... well, you know what they got. Of course, as a Blazer fan, I loved the Bobcats tonight. They kept snagging all the rumored guys I didn't want Portland to draft. Thanks, MJ!

The Pacers - It's like the Pacers didn't know how to take advantage of their good fortune after the Jermaine O'Neal trade. They stumbled into Bayless at #11, but quickly traded away a potential All-Star for a nice, but limited role player in Brandon Rush. This might have been okay except that Rush will hardly ever see the floor behind Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy. And then they looked the Darrell Arthur gift horse in the mouth and decided to snag the plodding Roy Hibbert instead. In a draft like this, with dozens of intriguing guys, Indiana should have been able to make a real killing. I'm not feeling it.

The Sonics - Seattle had six picks, including the #4 overall, and when they roll out their new roster next year they will probably feature just Russell Westbrook as their first guard off the bench and D.J. White as the 9th man. Not exactly a haul. I'm starting to wonder if maybe Sam Presti is a lot better at acquiring picks than he is at making them. Look, I'm not saying that the fourth spot was one I would have enjoyed, but I think you have to do better than the poor man's Mario Chalmers. (Sorry, couldn't resist.)

The Wizards - I guess Washington thinks they are closer to the promise land than the rest of us, because they found a way to turn the #18 and Bill Walker into project center JaVale McGee and some money. What's the plan here?

Random Picks I Really Liked

Marreese Speights - This was a quiet but terrific pick by the Sixers. I don't know what people were watching last year, but this guy can play. He's got great hands and can run the floor. I expect him to play right away for the Sixers.

J.J. Hickson - I have no idea why, but I have a good feeling about this one for the Cavs.

Courtney Lee - I thought the Magic did a good job of keeping their focus. With all kinds of players dropping to them it would have been easy to abandon the game plan, but they wanted Lee and they got their man. He is an immediate upgrade over Mo Evans and just has the appearance of a legit NBA player. I can't put my finger on why, but he just looks right.

Kyle Weaver - He's similar enough to Tayshaun Prince that I can see Larry Brown loving this guy and giving him run late in the season despite the fact that Weaver is A) a rookie and B) stuck behind Gerald Wallace and Jared Dudley at small forward.

Bill Walker - Boston is going to rue the day they passed on CDR at the end of the first round (for all-world knucklehead J.R. Giddens), but they helped ease the pain by stealing Walker away from Washington for a bag of cash. He has the versatility to spell Ray Allen some next year and also replace a bit of what Posey did should the latter leave via free agency.

Malik Hairston - My only worry with Hairston is that he's not terribly fast, but I guess that's okay because the Suns are trying to become as slow as humanly possible. There's nothing more depressing than what Steve Kerr is doing to that franchise, but I do think Hairston can give them what they were hoping Alando Tucker could provide last year.

The Bold Predictions

Some of these have already been hinted at if not spelled out completely, but here we go:

1. Mario Chalmers will join the likes of Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, and Carlos Boozer as a second round pick that gets paid lottery pick dollars. His skill set is so perfect for both the modern NBA and for the Heat that I can't imagine him failing. Prediction 1A: Chalmers will be a better NBA player than Russell Westbrook, who went a mere 30 picks higher.

2. Darrell Arthur and CDR will combine to score 30 ppg by their second year in the league.

3. The best forward Golden State drafted tonight will wind up being Richard Hendrix (#49 overall) and not lottery pick Anthony Randolph.

4. Jerryd Bayless will make at least two All-Star games despite playing on a loaded Portland team.

5. Courtney Lee will be the starting shooting guard for the 2009 Eastern Conference champions.

6. Michael Beasley will average at least 22 and 10 next year and win the Rookie of the Year award. (And I'm not ruling out an MVP for Wade.)

7. Malik Hairston will play more minutes for Phoenix next year than uber stiff Robin Lopez.

8. Alexis Ajinca will never play in the NBA.

9. Marreese Speights will make the All-Rookie team.

10. The Bucks will start the first-ever All Small Forward Team.

Click to read the rest

Blazers: Gunning For the Wrong Guy?

2008-06-25T17:21:00.004-05:00

I just read a report that the Blazers are trying to swap picks with the Nets in order to draft a potential franchise point guard.

This is fantastic news. I'm a big proponent of moving expendable assets - Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez (is he still considered an asset?), Channing Frye, and, yes, even Travis Outlaw - in order to boil all that quantity into higher quality. And adding a young, inexpensive point guard with tailored skills to the current nucleus is the definition of quality.

The only problem? I think they might be targeting the wrong guy.

According to the Yahoo report, Portland is making a play for Texas' D.J. Augustin. Make no mistake, I'm sure Augustin will be fine as a pro. He has an innate ability to keep his dribble alive ala Steve Nash and he plays a pretty fearless-yet-intelligent brand of basketball. He's also a potent spot-up shooter from distance. Unfortunately, that last trait is the only one likely to help the Blazers a great deal, due to the fact that Brandon Roy and even Rudy Fernandez are going to be doing so much of the playmaking for this team.

In fact, here is my personal checklist for the ideal point guard to team with Roy in the Portland backcourt:

1. Young and cheap (in other words, a rookie fits the bill perfectly)
2. Fantastic defensively (so that Roy never has to even think about guarding Chris Paul)
3. A good spot-up shooter with range
4. Strong character
5. Fast

To me, Augustin's letter grades for each checklist item look like this:

1. A
2. C-
3. B+
4. A (as far as I know)
5. B

Not the worst report card imaginable, but a little spotty.

Now compare that to fellow Big 12 guard prospect Mario Chalmers. My boy Chalmers has been shooting up draft boards everywhere but should definitely be available at #10. Here's his report card:

1. A
2. A (best defensive guard in the draft)
3. A (ridiculous 47% from three last year)
4. A
5. A

You will note that "ball handling," "leadership," and "playmaking" were not on my checklist. Some might call it cherry picking for Chalmers, but the truth is, the Blazers aren't in any great need of those traits. Again, they need a guy who can play off their current players and do a handful of things really, really well.

Chalmers strikes me as not only the most underrated player in this draft, but also an ideal fit for this group. He has the attitude, the pedigree, and some Rondo-like defensive traits that pair perfectly with his more "off the ball" style of point guard play. If the former Jayhawk has one weakness it is that he's a straight line player with a limited handle. If I'm being honest, I have to admit that he's probably not a pure point guard.

But that's the beauty of this whole thing ... the Blazers don't need a pure point guard! They just need someone who can guard pure point guards while helping to push tempo and knock down threes. That's it. Easy game.

Take Chalmers, KP. Do it!

Click to read the rest

My Favorite Prospects

2008-06-23T22:04:00.005-05:00

I usually do a more advanced NBA Draft preview, but I've been so bad at predicting the draft and am so tired of trying to come up with unique things to say about all these overanalyzed and nitpicked kids that I'm resorting to a simple list. Simple, but effective, I say!

So here are my 25 favorite players in this year's draft, complete with a comment about each guy. Sorry folks, this is the most energy I could muster, although I won't rule out a few trade ideas and Blazer-related comments in the days to come.

1. Derrick Rose, Memphis - A highly original top pick, I know, but I happen to think that Rose will be 90% as good as Deron Williams offensively and 100% as good as a young Jason Kidd defensively. No brainer for Chicago.

2. Michael Beasley, Kansas State - I'm still concerned about the Derrick Coleman comparisons, but D.C. went for 12 and 9 per game as a frosh at Syracuse and was already 23 years old when he entered the league, while Beasley is coming off 26.5 and 12.5 and is only 19. Plus, Coleman made just 16 threes in his four-year career at Syracuse while Beasley drained 36 in just one season.

3. Jerryd Bayless, Arizona - Being labled a "combo guard" used to be the kiss of death; now combo guards are starting to rule the NBA. Bayless is like Monta Ellis with better point guard skills. I know he can't fight through a screen to save his life, but I'll take my chances.

4. Joe Alexander, West Virginia - He looked great every time I saw him play last year, he is said to have plenty of room to grow as a player, and the word is that his intensity and work ethic is off the charts. Throw in the dearth of quality small forwards in the NBA right now (the most under-reported story out there) and I think he's definitely a top 6 pick in this draft.

5. Kevin Love, UCLA - This is how I know what a weak draft this is; I consider Love to be closer to the next Sean May than the next Bill Walton, yet here he is, at #5.

6. Darrell Arthur, Kansas - His numbers were suppressed in Kansas' balanced offense, but this guy has skills and room to improve.

7. Marreese Speights, Florida - I'm not sure why Speights is projected so low. He reminds me of Elton Brand and did a terrific amount of damage in relatively few minutes during his sophomore year in Gator country.

8. Mario Chalmers, Kansas - That's right. It's my boy Chalmers, at #8. Look, I'm not trying to predict the actual draft or impress anyone with how closely I can read mock draft boards. These are the guys that I think will be the best players.

9. Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis - I'm showing some real title game bias here, but CDR has all the tools and is a proven winner. He has size, athleticism, scoring ability, defensive awareness, confidence ... I have no idea how this guy could slip out of the lottery in a weak draft.

10. D.J. Augustin, Texas - The Memphis game in the Elite Eight is still all too visible in my mind's eye, but I think Augustin can be an effective NBA point guard. Maybe a rich man's version of Jameer Nelson.

11. O.J. Mayo, USC - To me, he projects pretty poorly as an offensive playmaker, but the good news is that he looks like a defensive force in the making.

12. Richard Hendrix, Alabama - The most likely winner of this draft's "Carlos Boozer Award" for the productive, visible, power conference big man that somehow gets completely ignored and taken in the second round, only to go on and have a great career.

13. Ryan Anderson, Cal - Another guy that has serious skills (deep shooting) that are in serious demand in the current NBA climate. I know Anderson wouldn't have been ideal in 1996, but guess what? It's not 1996. What team couldn't use a 6'10" forward with umlimited range on his J? Am I missing something?

14. Brook Lopez, Stanford - I think he's a stiff, but he's good enough to go #14 in this draft, so I'll end the Lopez embargo.

15. Danilo Gallinari, International - I've never seen the guy play, I know nothing about him, so I'm sticking him here. (It was either that or leave him out altogether.)

16. Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky - Lee can create his shot and then make said shot. Better than 40% of the current NBA shooting guards.

17. Russell Westbrook, UCLA - Once upon a time I was really high on Westbrook, but he suddenly has "bust" written all over him. I'm concerned.

18. DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M - Everyone seems to loathe Jordan these days, but I still remember the play I saw back in December when he ran the floor at top speed, hauled in a lob pass, and dunked it on the other side of the basket ... with authority. Considering all the hype about Andrew Bynum this year, I'm kind of shocked that teams would be so down on a big man with athleticism and unpolished skill. I mean, isn't that the Bynum blueprint?

19. Bill Walker, Kansas State - Every year in my fantasy drafts I try to snag a guy with a minor injury because I know I'm getting a steal. I think the same thing is about to happen in real life with Walker.

20. Brandon Rush, Kansas - He looks like he could be a James Posey type, and I mean that as the highest possible compliment.

21. Donte Greene, Syracuse - In fairness to Greene, I only saw him play once this year and it wasn't a very impressive performance. I might have him too low.

22. George Hill, IUPUI - He looked smooth and legit back before his injury least year and I'm hearing that he played great at the pre-draft camp. I have a hunch he will be a valuable rotation player in the NBA before too long.

23. Eric Gordon, Indiana - This is probably too low, but I just don't see what the big deal is about an undersized shooting guard with no discernable point guard abilities.

24. Kyle Weaver, Washington State - In fact, I'd probably rather have Weaver than Gordon.

25. Darnell Jackson, Kansas - He has "productive 12-year NBA career" written all over him.

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The Long Awaited Rondo Post

2008-06-23T20:08:00.004-05:00

Way back on June 18 I promised Rajon Rondo his own post after a magnificent Game Six performance in the NBA Finals. But then later that day I posted a Boston Celtics 2007-08 retrospective and it was so chalk full of Rondo that I started to worry that maybe I looked a little weird.

But, lo and behold, people seem to want the Rondo post. Unfortunately, in the time since I made my claim, the rest of the world has finally caught up to all things Rondo and recognized what an amazing game he had. So it does little good to talk about his boatload of steals, his aggressive tone-setting play, or even his refreshing post-game humility while his teammates carried on like they'd just landed on Mars. No, the focus of this post is on Rondo's future and how we can use the 2008 Finals as a yardstick.

The list of point guards under the age of 23 that started for an NBA Champion is not a long one. In fact, there are two that come to mind: Magic Johnson and Tony Parker. And while it is always nice to be mentioned in the company of the Magic Man, I think we can all agree that Parker is the more apt comparison.

So what did those 2003 NBA Finals look like for the 21 year old Parker? Like Rondo, Parker was in his second year in the league and found himself in position to lead a veteran team toward a title. The Spurs won 60 games that year and shared the best record in the NBA with the Mavericks. Tim Duncan was at the height of his powers and the Spurs featured weapons such as Stephen Jackson (who turned in one of the more underrated playoff performances of this decade), Manu Ginobil (just getting going), David Robinson (in his last season), and more. Parker was actually a star on that team, more so than Rondo, as he ranked second on the squad in minutes played (33.8 per game) and points per game (15.5). However, once the playoffs started, Parker's play got a little spotty. Like Rondo, he was incredibly effective one minute and then shaky the next. Like Rondo, he couldn't hit the broadside of a barn with his jumper. Like Rondo, he spent several key stretches of big games watching his backup (Speedy Claxton, in this case) run the team. And, like Rondo, Parker wound up making enough plays and bringing enough speed to the table to help take his team to a title.

Now? Parker is a beast. He can drill open jumpers all day and his ability to attack the rim is almost unparalleled in the NBA. He isn't and never will be the defensive terror that Rondo already is, but Parker is San Antonio's one-man fast break and does a lot of the same damage with his speed that Rajon does to Boston's opponents. So I'd say that the future bodes well for Rondo.

Of course, people rarely remember things as they were. Parker's offensive game is so lethal now that he is rarely remembered for being such a liability on that end of the court that San Antonio tried to bring Jason Kidd to town even after winning a title. No one recalls the fact that Parker shot just 40.3% from the field, 26.8% from three, and 71.3% from the line during that Finals run. (Compare that to Rondo's eerily similar 40.7%, 25.0%, and 69.1%). Or that Parker played just 13 minutes in the Game Six Western Conference Finals against Dallas (going 0-for-5) and 24 minutes in the Finals clincher against New Jersey (2-for-6). It's almost crazy how similar Parker's voyage was to Rondo's.

In fact, you could argue that Rondo actually played better than Parker. Consider:

Games Played - Parker played 24 games, Rondo 26
Minutes per game - Parker 33.5, Rondo 31.9
Points - Parker 352, Rondo 266
Assists - Parker 85, Rondo 172
Rebounds - Parker 66, Rondo 107
Steals - Parker 22, Rondo 45
Blocks - Parker 3, Rondo 8
Turnovers - Parker 47, Rondo 47

Even if you allow for Rondo's games played advantage, he still has the superior line of 10.2 ppg, 6.6 apg, 4.1 rpg, 1.7 spg, 1.8 tpg compared to Parker's 14.7/3.6/2.8/0.9/2.0.

Again, I'm not trying to denigrate Parker retroactively. Rather, my goal is to remind everyone that Parker was very much a 21 year old, second-year point guard that season. And how he's insanely good. All of which is good news for Boston fans. When you factor in that Rondo is already one of the best defensive guards in the NBA and it seems like the future is very bright indeed.

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Wish List: McGrady to Detroit

2008-06-23T18:43:00.004-05:00

I'm not a Rockets fan and I'm not from Detroit, so I probably like both Tracy McGrady and the Pistons more than I should. To me, the former has been underappreciated for his evolution as a player simply because the winning part hasn't fallen into place, while the latter has been unfairly critized for not winning more (if you told any NBA team entering the 2003 season that they could go to six straight Conference Finals, two NBA Finals, and win a ring, I'm pretty sure they would have taken it). So, of course, I think we should pair them up. Maybe McGrady gets the ever deserving Joe Dumars another ring and maybe the Pistons can be the franchise that rids McGrady's 800-pound playoff gorilla forever.

Oh, and it makes sense from a basketball standpoint as well. Consider the following deal:

Houston sends Tracy McGrady and Steve Francis to Detroit for Rip Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace.

For the Rockets, they could solve their most overlooked problem - which is that they have two small forwards in the starting lineup - by playing Hamilton at his natural 2 position and keeping Battier at the three. Meanwhile, they could add Sheed to the starting lineup at power forward and provide the perfect (and I mean perfect) compilment to Yao in the middle. Seriously, can you think of a better option than Wallace in a contract year? If any team actually needs his strange brand of intensity, it is Houston. And his inside-outside game, shot blocking, and athleticism are the exact things the Rockets need to buttress Yao with in the frontcourt. The Rockets could make a full scale assault on a title next year with Alston, Hamilton, Battier, Sheed, and Yao in the starting lineup. Seriously, that group can win the whole thing.

As for the Pistons, this is the chance to finally bring a guy who can create his own offense when things get stagnant and introduce a supremely talented passer into the mix. Detroit has featured good ball movement over their six-year run, but they've been able to get by without putting a single dominant passer on the floor. On the other hand, McGrady is arguably the most underrated passer in the league and a guy with very unique skills for his position. Plus, he's due, right?

Things aren't as simple on the Pistons side of this trade, because McGrady would join Tayshaun Prince as natural small forwards on the roster. However, since both players are so versatile, Detroit would have some options. They could go small (Billups, Stuckey, McGrady, Prince, and McDyess), big (Billups, McGrady, Prince, McDyess, and Maxiell), or make another move (Tayshaun has quite a bit of value) to fetch a big man.

Yes, yes. I like this trade. Let's make it happen, people.

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People are Coming Around on Chalmers!

2008-06-23T17:44:00.002-05:00

Over two months ago, I made my case for Mario Chalmers as a first round pick and was met with some skepticism.

Now my boy Chalmers is on fire, at least over at ESPN, as John Hollinger rates him as the third best perimeter player in the draft and Chad Ford is saying that he might even sneak into the lottery. If that happens, someone is going to look really, really smart.

Oh, and a GM will probably make out pretty well also.

A Section F Recap: Boston Celtics

2008-06-18T12:23:00.002-05:00

Sometimes it is fun to go back and review how a team came together and emerged over the course of the season and it is even better when you can get it all through one lens. In case any of you out there feel like taking that journey Section F style, here are all of my posts about Boston over the past year, with annotations. Enjoy.

June 29, 2007 - Loving the draft-day trade for Ray Allen and wondering why more people weren't in my corner. I'm sure most pundits would deny this now, but that trade got crushed. Excuse me while I pat myself on the back, toot my own horn, and gloat, all at once.

July 30, 2007 - Pushing for the KG trade, predicting almost the exact lineup they rolled out in the Finals, and even promising a Finals trip out of the deal. I was kind of on a roll last summer, I have to say.

August 1, 2007 - Looking at Boston's roster needs right after the KG deal. This is a good reminder that nobody had any confidence whatsoever in the Celtics' bench. Also, it is a good reminder that Posey was just about left for dead before coming to Boston.

August 2, 2007 - Some serious praise for Rajon Rondo. This is one of my favorite columns in the blog's history. Mainly because I love Rondo in a way that is probably unhealthy. And because I was right.

October 29, 2007 - Ignore most of my predictions, but note that I had the C's winning it all. Insert feather in cap.

November 14, 2007 - My first look at the C's in 2007-08. Let's just say I was impressed.

December 30, 2007 - I got very excited after Boston notched road wins at Utah and L.A. to close out 2007.

Jaunary 31, 2008 - More Rondo love. Get used to it.

April 18, 2008 - I guess I got tired of Boston for a few months, but when it came time to pick a champ at the beginning of the playoffs, I stuck with the Celts.

April 24, 2008 - My love for Rondo grew to the point where I was writing about him after watching Phoenix games.

May 15, 2008 - More Rondo!

The rest of the stuff comes from the Finals and can be found in the June archives.

Game Six Thoughts

2008-06-18T01:56:00.006-05:00

It's not everyday that you see an NBA team clinch a title by rolling to a 39-point blowout win. I mean, you have to have a real perfect storm of events - amazing play by the winning team and horrendous performances from the losers chief among them. A dash of indifference from the defeated head coach is helpful, as is a boisterous home crowd. All in all, it was just an absolute shellacking that the Celtics put on the Lakers in a 131-92 victory. And there was so much to discuss, so much to soak up, that I had to abandon any semblance of a theme and just bullet out all the analysis. So here goes, in order of my personal preference (because hey, that's what blogging is all about!):

1. The return of Rondo. Actually, this one needs its own post. More on this tomorrow, but I'm just so happy for my favorite Celtic. The way that Rondo shook off the injury, the struggles, and the detractors to throw up a massive 21-8-7-6 line was incredible. I sure hope that playoff fantasy leagues exist and that somebody had Rondo on his team tonight. What a box score. And the crazy thing is that the stats barely scratch the surface of Rondo's impact. It is worth noting that both Doc Rivers and Phil Jackson singled Rondo out (apropos of nothing) as the key player in the game. I'll stop there since I'll be penning a 14,000 word (estimated) Rondo post tomorrow, but for me, the little guy's magnificent return was the biggest story of this contest.

2. The love fest. Is it possible that we will wind up remembering this team more for the hilariously epic victory celebration than for the victory itself? I think these guys wrestled the title of "most excessive celebration" away from the cast of Chicago (at the 2003 Oscars). At certain points, it was downright uncomfortable. Now, I don't want to be seen as the guy raining on the parade, but you have to acknowledge that it was all a bit much. Doc Rivers and Paul Pierce were understandably emotional, given the state of all things Celtics about a year ago, but their protracted hugs, near-kisses, rib taps (Doc gave him about 45 light taps to the midsection during one embrace), and face presses were the pinnacle of comedy. Big Baby Davis was inserting himself into the middle of every celebration and picture, even cradling the trophy on several occasions. Sam Cassell looked like an extra on Friday Night Lights. Leon Powe nearly made me fall off my couch when he yelled "I got you, I got you!" to KG during one particularly rambunctious outburst. And how can we forget the two most out of control aspects of all: 1) the Gatorade pour, and 2) the Garnett interview. The former was just idiotic. I know Pierce wanted to replicate other championship moments, but I think he forgot that they play football games on a field, not a court. Who willingly dumps liquid all over a hardwood floor when there is still time left on the clock? That was just insane.

Oh wait, I forgot to reserve the word "insane" for KG. One day I will have to tell the tales of Kevin Garnett's wild week on the Pepperdine campus in Malibu during the summer of 2003, but for now, I'll say only that he showed some flashes at that time that curbed my surprise tonight when he lost all control of his emotions during the ill-fated interview with Michelle Tafoya. The interview started with a question and was followed by ... silence. No answer from Garnett for a good five seconds (although it felt like five minutes). Then he came back with something fairly indecipherable, which was followed by a blurred mixture of crying, screaming, back-arching, and a profanity-laced bellow. At this point, the good people of ABC needed to find another player to interview. Like, oh I don't know, Paul Pierce, maybe? After all, he's been the go-to interview the entire series and was set to be named the MVP of the Finals. Plus, he's the longest tenured Celtic. But no, ABC had to have the KG interview, because they thought it would be emotional. It was emotional all right. It was the most uncomfortable and awkward sports-related interview since Joe Namath tried to make his move on Suzy Kolber. After the crew decided to stay with KG, he started to rally back and credit his teammates, but quickly dissolved into a location-driven shoutout session that sounded a lot like the bridge of a bad early 90's rap song. He finished it all off by saying "I'm certified. I'm certified." Obviously, this meant that he finally had the NBA title that would validate his career, but as my wife put it, "He should have said, 'I'm certifiable.'" I've always accused Kobe Bryant of being contrived and watching too many Michael Jordan videos (mainly the Flu Game), so I would be remiss if I didn't throw out the possibility that Garnett is just a little too familiar with Jordan's crying jag following the 1991 Finals. But hey, the first cut is the deepest as Cat Stevens once sang, so I'm sure that KG had a good reason for coming completely unhinged on national television.

3. Phil embarrassing Kobe. I have to believe that Phil Jackson was absolutely loving the fact that he had the power to make Kobe play all but three minutes of the fourth quarter. There was no other reason to keep Bryant on the floor after about the five minute mark, yet there he was, running around and trying not to let the horror of being asked to play in a 39-point blowout show on his face. To his credit, Kobe kept playing and even taking a few shots (in stark contrast to the way he completely quit on his team against Phoenix in 2006), but it was obvious that he didn't want to be on the floor. And I don't think any other coach of any other star player would have kept his guy out there as long as Phil did. You can agree or disagree with my opinion on this, but the bottom line is that I don't think the old wounds have healed. Jackson is coaching this team because he gets paid a ton of money to chase a tenth ring and to help mold young people with his interesting blend of coaching and teaching. The fact that Kobe is around is probably a nuisance at best and a travesty at worst. Again, this is all conjecture. But it seemed to come through loud and clear tonight when he embarrassed his star player by making him play out the string alongside the likes of Vujacic, Farmar, Eddie House, and Big Baby.

4. Ray Allen. I spent a great deal of time detailing Ray Allen's career-defining Game Four, but it is worth noting again how huge this guy was in the NBA Finals and how amazing that fact is considering the way he started the postseason. Allen drained a Finals record 7 threes in tonight's game [atually, I think he tied the record] and a Finals record 22 threes in the series and was right there with Paul Pierce as Boston's rock. He had 26 points on 8-of-12 shooting (including 7-of-9 from deep) and added four boards and three steals in less than 32 minutes. And all this while dealing with a family crisis involving the health of his son and after being poked in the eye and missing almost a quarter of the game. I can't stress enough what a transformative series this was for Ray Allen. He's a lock now for the Hall of Fame and pretty much automatically jumps over 4-5 shooting guards on that particular all-time list. Amazing stuff.

5. Paul Pierce. The other guy - besides Allen - that did the most for his legacy (KG comes in third since he was pretty spotty during Games 2-5 ... Kobe comes in 913th), Pierce was just a fascinating guy to watch during the postseason. On the one hand, he had some of the worst offensive performances I've ever seen (Game One against Cleveland and Game Three of the Finals, when he went 2-for-14 in each with 4 and 6 points, respectively). On the other, he had two of the great postseason games in Boston history in Game Seven against Cleveland (the duel with LeBron) and Game Five of the Finals. He completely outplayed Kobe Bryant ... yet he did it while looking like he had a deadly virus the entire time. Pierce had the famous (or infamous) knee injury and subsequent return, which will be one of the most indelible memories from the 2008 Finals. He completed the transformation from "scorer" and "slight head case" to "complete player" and "team captain." His evolution defensively was mind-boggling and was capped off with one-on-one defense on both LeBron James and Kobe Bryant that rivaled any effort that has ever been made against either superstar. The guy should probably just retire right this minute, because he will never reach a higher plane as an athlete. In fact, I half expect him to finally get an MRI that reveals the fact that Pierce played the entire series on a torn MCL. Nothing is out of the question at this point.

6. P.J. Brown is no Mitch Richmond. Not sure if you remember the way Mitch Richmond glommed on to the 2000 Lakers in order to "get a ring," but I'm happy to say that P.J. Brown did no such thing. He got up off the couch and signed with Boston late in the season with the hopes that he would finally reach an NBA Finals at age 38. I'm sure he expected to play a handful of shaky minutes and try to impart some knowledge in the locker room. Instead, he wound up saving Boston's season in Game Seven of the Cleveland series, going something like 6-for-6 from the field in the fourth quarter. Plus, he played huge minutes during the Finals and helped Boston absorb everything from foul trouble to injuries to Doc Rivers' love-hate relationship with Leon Powe. Plus, he got to be part of a Celtics team that scored as many points in tonight's game as his old Heat teams used to score in a series (slight exaggeration). Good for P.J.

7. LeBron is good. Not to move too far off the main point here, but with all the references to the Cleveland series, it is worth mentioning that the Cavs could have, should have, would have won that second round series were it not for Rajon Rondo in Game Five (9-for-15 from the field, 20 points, 13 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, and a pair of massive threes in the second quarter that erased an early Cleveland lead) and the aforementioned P.J. Brown performance in Game Seven. And that's before you even mention Pierce going for 41 in the clincher. You can talk about the Hawks taking Boston to seven games, but that was kind of a fluke if you ask me. Atlanta had the perfect blend of youthful exuberance, extreme athleticism, and naively excited home crowd to give a team with expectations a lot of trouble. But when it came right down to it, Boston throttled the Hawks by 34 points in the clincher. (In fact, Boston's point differential in the series was +94.) The Detroit series can be blamed on Flip or Sheed or Billups being banged up or whatever, but the bottom line is that Boston handled the Pistons in that one. And they pretty much put it on the Lakers as well. It's crazy to say this, but the Cavs gave Boston the toughest series of anyone. And sure, I know that matchups are a big factor and that Ray Allen hit the skids at that time, but the fact remains that Cleveland came within a handful of possessions of beating the team that eventually emerged as the clear champs of the NBA. And considering how putrid most of that Cavaliers roster is, what does that say about LeBron James? More specifically, how impressive do we have to deem his 112-20-17 over the final three games (when his team scored a grand total of 255 points)? Whereas Kobe wore down over the course of the series and found the going consistently tougher against the vaunted Boston defense, King James figured things out on the fly and gained strength, shaking off a brutal start to that series to close with the aforementioned flourish. I know we are an out-of-sight, out-of-mind culture, but there is a pretty scary takeaway here and it has everything to do with the summer of 2010. If a legitimately good team clears enough cap space to take a run at LeBron, we could have a next generation version of Shaq signing with L.A.

8. Kobe's no MJ. This one is so painfully obvious that it doesn't seem to warrant inclusion, especially since all the irrational Lakers fans out there will flip out upon reading a few negative words about their hero. But there were just way too many Jordan comparisons being thrown around before the NBA Finals, and I believe that every person alive who cares about basketball and has access to a keyboard owes it to society to smash that theory to pieces. There was no basis for such a comparison before this series and there's certainly no way to make that claim now. Bryant shed the good teammate image the moment things went bad and went on a gripe session in Game Two that is quickly becoming legendary in NBA circles. He treated his coach with disrespect bordering on disdain. He failed to rise to the challenge that Paul Pierce brought to the court. He would try to deflect blame after bad passes by screaming at the intended target (it called to mind the old jokes that my Dad used to tell me after an overthrow - "Grow taller!"). Then there are the cold, hard numbers - 53-for-131 from the field (good for 40%, including just one game with over 50% shooting) and 23 turnovers. There was the 24-point lead relinquished and the 39-point waxing in the clincher. None of this suggests Jordan, unless we're talking MJ's last year with the Wizards or maybe his stint with the Birmingham Barons. So people need to stop suggesting that Kobe is in the same echelon as Jordan. Period.

(Of course, even though everyone is nodding and agreeing with this now - well, except for those Lakers crazies - the tune will change yet again if things start going well for the Lakers next year. Remember, less than a year ago Kobe was demanding a trade, throwing his franchise and teammates under the bus, and supposedly tarnishing his legacy forever. Eight months later he was the MVP and a wonderful teammate and an inspiration to impoverished nations everywhere. So I'm not holding out much hope for collective long-term memory on this one. Pencil in the Jordan comparisons for May 2009. Wait, even more likely - this August when he's D'ing up some uncoordinated Lithuanian point guard at the Beijing Games.)

9. How can Portland acquire James Posey? If there is a more ideal "last piece to the puzzle" guy in the NBA right now than James Posey, I'd like to know who it is. Twice in three years - first with Miami in 2006 and now with Boston - Posey has given a contending team the lift it needed to get over the hump. He's a physical player with a propensity for "finishing guys off after the whistle" (as Jeff Van Gundy put it). He's afraid of absolutely no one (more on this in a minute). He drills enormous threes with regularity. He's a smart player who knows how to get the ball to guys where they like it. He even has a nasty habit of delivering cheap shots in testy situations. Come to think of it, I think he took the "small forward who does all the things I just mentioned" baton from Robert Horry a few years ago and never looked back. I don't know if the edgy style of play would go over on the feel-good Blazers, but I promise you that giving Posey 25 minutes a night at the 3 would accelerate that team's timeline by at least a year. I doubt Boston will part with him, but teams everywhere should be trying to get their hands on him to get over the top. Utah, Portland, Denver, Phoenix, Cleveland, Orlando, and New Orleans are all teams that come immediately to mind.

10. The Fearless Trio. I mentioned Posey's neglect for fear above, but there is more to the story. Specifically, Posey is not afraid of Kobe Bryant, which puts him in select company. I never hear people talk about this, but one of the keys to Boston's defense on Bryant in the series is that they had three guys they could throw at Kobe who quite simply were not afraid of him. This probably sounds like common sense crossed with a bad cliché, but it is actually a very important point. I couldn't give you an exact number, but I would wager that the number of NBA players that do not fear Kobe Bryant could be counted on two hands. And maybe "fear" is too strong of a word, but the large majority of NBA players would just rather not mix it up with him. The biggest factor is that they don't want to be embarrassed. Players have a lot of pride and aren't fond of looking like a fool in front of 20,000 fans and on national television. And since Bryant is known to eschew the team game in favor of destroying an individual opponent, the threat of being exposed is very real. For all of my problems with Kobe, I readily admit that he can abuse nearly anyone in uniform. So what it takes to approach Kobe Bryant unafraid is not a specific skill set, but rather a willingness to absorb personal embarrassment if necessary, so that you can guard him as hard as possible, drive on him as hard as possible, and play him physically tough all game. Again, it sounds simple, but watch closely next year and note how many players actually do this. Hint: not many.

Anyway, here are the guys that I believe have the ability, willingness, or whatever it is that is necessary to take Kobe head on with no fear:

[Update - we're getting some great additions via email and in the comments section, so maybe we can grow this list of "players that don't fear Kobe."]
LeBron James
Shane Battier
Bruce Bowen
Tayshaun Prince
Ruben Patterson
Paul Pierce
James Posey
Ray Allen
Brandon Roy
[Raja Bell]

Honestly, I can't really think of anyone else. Bowen has lost a step and so no amount of courage can save him now. I don't even think Patterson is in the league. So that leaves seven guys - and a whopping three of them play for the Celtics. The fact that Posey, Pierce, and Allen (due to his strange feud with Bryant) could all care less about offending Kobe, raising his ire, or otherwise putting themselves in harm's way gave Boston a truly rare weapon against Bryant; the Celtics had a rotation of solid athletes willing to take the challenge. That's half the battle.

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New Post on Hoops Addict

2008-06-17T20:48:00.003-05:00

Here's the latest over on HA.

A Career-Defining Game Four

2008-06-13T01:44:00.005-05:00

Pretty vague title, no? After all, that could be referring to any number of people involved in Boston's epic comeback on Thursday night. We've got Paul Pierce, with his newfound defense, clutch sensibilities, Inglewood roots, controversial knee injury, and Boston tenure. We've got KG who plays the game with intensity bordering on madness, a love for 20-foot jumpers, and the world's biggest monkey on his back. We've got Kobe Bryant, who is in danger of seeing the dream season - an MVP, the top seed, and an improved reputation - slip away, along with his chance at a first non-Shaq title. Heck, even James Posey has some pre-cheap shot artist Robert Horry fame he can grab a hold of. To put it simply - there are an inordinate number of people involved in this NBA Finals who have careers on the line. And that's before we even deal with Phil Jackson's attempt at a record 10th ring or David Stern's latest attempt to bully and belittle and patronize his way out of a mess that is largely his own doing.

For all of that though, I thought Ray Allen turned in the most career-defining performance in Game Four.

Allen played a fantastic basketball game and, in my opinion, was the reason that Boston won the game. In fact, he's probably the biggest reason they are up 3-1 in this series. He's on the verge of completely altering the way people will remember his career. And let me tell you, the transformation is stunning.

For starters, it was just a few weeks ago that Allen appeared to be done. As in, maybe he'll retire after the season. He couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with his patented jumper. He couldn't elevate and finish near the rim (never his strong suit anyway). He got torched by Joe Johnson. He was getting benched in favor of Posey pretty routinely. Even Boston fans and columnists got in on the act, mocking Allen by referring to the Celtics' as the "Big Two and a Half." There was very little indication that he could even get the better of Wally Z, let alone carry Boston to huge playoff wins.

But sometime during the Detroit series, he started to turn the tide. Actually, not "sometime." It was Game Five of those Eastern Conference Finals. With the Celtics desperate to win at home in order to take a 3-2 series lead, Allen shook off a combined 7-for-24 shooting performance from the previous two games in Detroit to go 9-for-15, including 5-for-6 from downtown. He scored 29 points, hit an enormous three on an out-of-bounds play that might have saved the season (Boston was reeling from a big Pistons comeback), and then iced the game with his typical deadly free throw shooting. From that point on, Allen has been looking more like the Ray Allen we all know so well - running guys off screens, hitting threes, making smart plays. In the first three games of the Finals, he was able to give the Lakers' backcourt fits with his constant movement and seemed to have an extra bounce in his step as he tallied 20.3 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field and from three.

So by the time Ray Allen stepped onto the floor for Game Four, it was no longer surprising that he was playing well. And if you told me before the game that he would be a primary reason for a Boston victory, that wouldn't have been all that surprising either.

What was surprising - and what will forever alter the way I remember Ray Allen - is the way that he played well. It was the way he became a primary reason for Boston's comeback victory. Because, quite honestly, this wasn't vintage Ray Allen. And I mean that as a compliment. Consider the following:

1. He played defense. If given 100 ~~adjectives~~ phrases [wow, somebody needs a grammar refresher] to describe Ray Allen, would you ever use "defensive stopper"? Doubtful. Yet, for some reason, the man guards Kobe Bryant like the fate of the free world is at stake. Whatever Bryant did to him once upon a time, it has staying power, because Allen has been applying a slow bun to every matchup with Kobe - whether in the preseason or the Finals - for nearly a decade. A byproduct of that was some really solid defense in Games 1-3, even when Kobe played well. But tonight, I thought Allen really turned it up a notch. Everyone is jumping on the Paul Pierce train tonight (and sure, rightfully so) for his willingness and ability to guard Bryant so tough in the second half of Game Four. But that ignores the unbelievable defense that Allen played over the first 24 minutes. Nobody noticed, since the Lakers were raining threes from all over the court (Trevor Ariza!) and playing fantastic, but the D was there. Allen held Bryant to 0-for-4 shooting in the first half and did a fantastic job of denying the ball and forcing Bryant to pass. This played a major role in Kobe struggling to find the range later in the game. Not only that, but Allen didn't stop playing defense just because he got switched off of his nemesis. He just spent the second half putting the clamps on Sasha Vujacic instead, running the Game Three hero off of his favorite shots, challenging everything, crashing the glass, and getting into the passing lanes to force steals. Did Ray Allen somehow morph into Shane Battier for the evening?

2. He played all 48 minutes. I won't necessarily say this was out of character, because Allen isn't exactly a guy that gets winded easily. But he's also not exactly young. Not does he exactly have perfect ankles. I know that guys can get more rest in the Finals due to the long commercial breaks, but still, 48 minutes is a haul. It takes a toll both physically and mentally, yet despite all that, Allen constantly looked like the freshest and most focused player on the court. More than anything, he gave Boston a constant on the court with all the new looks and weird lineups. Kind of like Penny and Desmond in Lost. (Okay, nothing like that.)

3. He handled the ball. I thought Rondo gave Boston some okay minutes - especially when they made their underrated little run in the first half to get the score down to 12, which helped them regain focus and confidence - on his bum ankle. (Although to hear Jeff Van Gundy tell it, Rondo not only was the worst player in NBA history tonight, but he also is responsible for all that ails modern society. I thought Beetlejuice's commentary tonight was one-note, unprofessional, annoying, and - as Simon Cowell somewhat famously uttered on American Idol this year - "borderline disrespectful." But maybe it's just me.) But there's no denying that the combination of Phil's defensive strategy and Rondo only being "89.555 percent" forced Doc's hand. And while Rivers kind of botched things in the first half when he gave Sam Cassell half a quarter to heave up bricks, he got it right in the second stanza by turning things over to Eddie House. The problem with playing House at point guard, of course, is that he can't dribble. Seriously, he can hardly bounce the ball more than three times in a row. This meant that Ray Allen and Paul Pierce had to do the bulk of the ball-handling. Pierce carried the load late in the game, but I would venture to say that Allen brought the ball up the floor 75% of the time in the second half. And he did most of that at a fast clip in order to get Boston into transition and early offense. So the fact that he had just one turnover was amazing.

4. He filled up the box score. Can you name the last time that Ray Allen had at least 9 boards and 3 steals in the same game? I'll tell you - November 20, 2006. That's like 170 games ago. So this was not normal. It was also not a luxury. If Allen hadn't been so active pinning down on the glass and getting into the passing lanes, the Celtics could not have won the game. Period. Plus, he had two boards in particular where he was absolutely skying (including a key offensive rebound late). Where did that come from?

5. He finished at the rim. Allen had several terrific plays at the basket in this game, but he saved his best for last with two really impressive forays to the rim late in the contest. First he had the uber-athletic reverse layup along the baseline and then he sealed the deal with the isolation on Vujacic that ended in a little finger roll off the glass. Again, where did that come from? Allen looked more like Kobe Bryant than Kobe Bryant in the fourth quarter.

All told, we got to sit back and watch an aging jump shooter dig down deep, completely vanquish his demons from early in this postseason, and lead his team to one of the most dramatic comeback victories of all time ... and he did it while playing the full 48 minutes and completely redefining himself, on the fly, on the biggest possible stage.

Wow.

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The Radmanovich Mystery

2008-06-11T01:04:00.002-05:00

Game Three was a turbulent affair filled with shanked free throws, horrific performances from star players (namely Pierce, Gasol, KG, and Odom), and, of course, a Donaghy taint that permeated everything. (Although from where I'm sitting, we didn't need a District Court brief to tell us that the Kings-Lakers game in 2002 was the most unfairly officiated game in modern sports history.) Plus, there was the bizarre way that Doc Rivers used (or, more to the point, didn't use) Rajon Rondo, as well as the dramatic return of "Good Kobe." Lots to talk about.

But the thing that left me scratching my head long after the game was over was the ongoing mystery that is Vlade Radmanovich, Starter.

Does anyone have any clue why Phil Jackson is still starting this guy? I mean, I get that Radman can stretch a defense with his streaky three-point stroke. And I am willing to admit that he looks like a vampire, which is kind of awesome. But what else does this dude bring to the table? He can't play defense, he fouls like it's his job, he has no other dimension to his offensive game beyond catch-and-shoot, and he has a pretty bad attitude on top of everything else. Way back in round two, my brother stated that Vlade was the worst starter in the playoffs and that it wasn't even close. While the likes of Mo Evans and DeShawn Stevenson might take offense at that statement, I have to believe my brother was on the money with his assessment.

The craziest thing about Radman's deficiencies is that he has a backup that is FAR superior. It would be one thing if, like the Wizards and Magic, the backups were equally crappy. This is, after all, the modern NBA, where expansion has diluted talent to the point where even the good teams can have horrible players getting big minutes (paging Fabricio Oberto). But in the case of the Lakers, they have a really good player sitting on the bench in Sasha Vujacic. He's come a long, long way during the last three years and has developed into a really good NBA player. He didn't wind up being the tall point guard that L.A. originally hoped for, but I'd wager that he's actually a better basketball player than even Phil Jackson could have dreamed. The Machine (I absolutely love that he gave himself the nickname, and I'm even more excited about the outfit I saw him wearing at Starbucks a few weeks ago - pink pants tucked into mismatched paisley socks) drills open threes, can put the ball on the floor to create space for his jumper, knows how to move without the ball and work off of screens, plays with emotion, gets under the skin of opponents, and works his butt off on the defensive end. That's not a bad option to play on the wing.

So, I go back to the original mystery: why is Radman starting over The Machine? Vujacic shoots just as well, if not better. He seems to work better with Kobe Bryant. He is a far superior defensive player. He has more tools on the offensive end. He plays with more spirit and emotion. He's just better. I realize that you could probably engineer a stat that says otherwise, but I'd rather trust my eyes on this one.

That said, if someone could give me some insight into what Phil Jackson knows that I don't, I would be forever grateful. This is a mystery that might just keep me up at night.

(Next up on Mystery Finals Theatre - Why Doc Rivers decided to capitalize on Rajon Rondo's breakout 16-assist performance in Game Two by refusing to let his young point guard create on offense and then playing him for just 4 minutes in the entire second half of Game Three.)

Rondo's 16 Assists

2008-06-09T02:39:00.002-05:00

I want to take just a few seconds to recognize the performance of Rajon Rondo in Game Two of the NBA Finals. Granted, I often conduct myself on this blog as if I were Rondo's best friend, older brother, and agent all wrapped into one, but that is in large part due to the fact that no one else seems to give this guy as much credit as he deserves.

No doubt by the time you read this, there will be dozens of takes on Game Two and I am willing to wager that few of them focus on Rondo. That's because there was the Lakers' near miracle comeback (the flip side of which is, of course, the near choke on Boston's part), the ongoing Pierce knee saga, the free throw shooting disparity (38-10 - are you serious?), the Lakers' ongoing refusal to pass the ball to the unstoppable Pau Gasol, and a variety of other tantalizing subjects to focus on from tonight's game.

So I'll be the guy singing Rondo's praises.

Specifically, I want to make sure everyone understands just how impressive it is that the second-year guard with the incredibly long fingers dished out 16 assists in a Finals game. Yes, his six boards, lack of turnovers, two steals, and an impressive block of a Radman three were all key as well, but those dimes really caught my eye.

First, the nature of the passes. He had a few flashy drives and dishes (specifically the fast break oop to Powe and the fake-behind-the-back dish to Powe underneath), a truly sensational baseline drive and left-handed kick out to Pierce (had that been Nash, the ABC announcing booth would have discussed the pass for 10 minutes instead of ignoring it completely), a pretty cool looking windup and pitch to a cutting Pierce, and a handful of other nifty plays. But what really stood out to me was the way that Rondo put the ball in the shooting pocket of his wing players. He was often moving at high speed and avoiding defenders while finding shooters, so to put the ball on that right shoulder every time was quite an achievement. There's a reason that Pierce was 4-for-4, Allen 3-for-6, and Posey 2-for-3 from behind the arc ... Rondo was giving them the ball in prime position for a catch-and-shoot. (Note: When he wasn't catching Rondo's deft passes, Pierce was throwing some beauties of his own.) It is so rare for any player - young or old - to hit the shooting pocket these days that I feel this was the most impressive aspect of Rondo's performance. It was a joy to watch a point guard push the ball, create passing angles, and then hit his guys in stride.

Of course, the sheer number of assists that Rondo piled up was mighty impressive as well. I'm sure he got a couple of generous calls from the official scorer, but that's a mountain of AST's. In fact, if we weren't so spoiled from the gaudy numbers that Chris Paul threw up all postseason, we'd probably appreciate the figure a little more.

Maybe this will help: Rondo's 16 assists are the most in an NBA Finals game since 1991.

If you are like me and sometimes forget that it's not still the late 90's, that's seventeen years. In the last four NBA Finals prior to this throwback clash, only LeBron James (10 in 2007) managed to even clock double-figures. The last time someone recorded more than 14 assists in a Finals game was Magic Johnson in Game Five of the 1991 Finals, when he dropped 20 dimes on the Bulls in a losing effort.

In the years since, guys by the name of Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, John Stockton, Kevin Johnson, Penny Hardaway, Mark Jackson, Gary Payton, and Jason Kidd have played in the Finals and not one of them was able to rack up the 16 assists that Rondo had tonight. Now are you impressed? This kid's no joke, people.

Oh, and for you history buffs and stat geeks out there, I decided to go ahead and compile a list of all the double-digit assist performances in the Finals from 1992 on:

16 - Rajon Rondo, Boston, 2008
14 - Penny Hardaway, Orlando, 1995
13 - John Stockton, Utah, 1998
12 - Scottie Pippen, Chicago, 1993
12 - John Stockton, Utah, 1997 (three times)
12 - John Stockton, Utah, 1998
12 - Eric Snow, Philadelphia, 2001
12 - Jason Kidd, New Jersey, 2002
11 - Michael Jordan, Chicago, 1992
11 - Gary Payton, Seattle, 1996
11 - Scottie Pippen, Chicago, 1998
11 - Marc Jackson, Indiana, 2000
11 - Jason Kidd, New Jersey, 2003
10 - Scottie Pippen, Chicago, 1992 (twice)
10 - Scottie Pippen, Chicago, 1993
10 - Michael Jordan, Chicago, 1992
10 - Kevin Johnson, Phoenix, 1993
10 - Charles Barkley, Phoenix, 1993
10 - Derek Harper, New York, 1994
10 - Avery Johnson, San Antonio, 1999
10 - Derek Fisher, Los Angeles, 2000
10 - Jason Kidd, New Jersey, 2002 (twice)
10 - Tim Duncan, San Antonio, 2003
10 - Jason Kidd, New Jersey, 2003
10 - LeBron James, Cleveland, 2007

(One more fun fact - In Game Two of the 1999 Finals, the New York Knicks recorded a grand total of eight assists as a team.)

Poor Phoenix

2008-06-07T00:58:00.002-05:00

The Rudy Fernandez news today served as yet another sobering reminder of what could have been in Phoenix. Rajon Rondo is excelling in the Finals (unless you believe Jeff Van Gundy, in which case Rondo's mere existence is a national tragedy), Shawn Marion is about to become a key player in free agency this summer, Mike D'Antoni is the new savior in New York, and now Rudy is joining the young, loaded Blazers ... simply because Robert Sarver either can't or won't pay the luxury tax.

As good as this Lakers-Celtics matchup is, I still feel ripped off as a fan that we never got to see the True Suns in the NBA Finals.

New Portland Trade Idea

2008-06-07T00:37:00.002-05:00

I spent a good part of the past two days talking shop with a Pistons fan in my office and I am more convinced than ever that Portland and Detroit could get together and make a deal that helps both teams.

Now, I'll be the first to admit that my Blazers trade suggestions below were rather misguided. The Bulls are trying to trade the #1 pick for Dwyane Wade, so I doubt that LaMarcus Aldridge would be enough to fetch the right to draft Derrick Rose. And, as people pointed out, the Suns will have every resource and incentive to keep Amare if (more like when) he opts out in 2010.

So I'm taking a mulligan ... and offering up another risky proposed deal.

This time, I think Chauncey Billups is the guy the Blazers should deal for. His market value is probably as low as it can go after he struggled with nagging injuries in the playoffs and was sort of put on the block by Joe Dumars. I think he can be had, especially when you consider that Rodney Stuckey offers great replacement value at the position for Detroit.

At first, I thought the Blazers would have to give up LaMarcus Aldridge to get Billups - a prospect I could live with as a Blazers fan (again, because of the influx of power forwards coming on the market in the next two years), but the more I look at this, the less necessary that seems. Could a package of Travis Outlaw (would give Detroit a tremendous weapon off the bench and a guy who would back up Prince at the 3 while also logging big minutes at the 4), Joel Przybilla (would have more value starting in Detroit than backing up Oden in Portland), and the #13 pick be enough? Maybe.

The Pistons could then look to move Rasheed Wallace as a second move and - even before acquiring assets in that trade, using draft picks, or spending the midlevel - be able to retool on the fly with a lineup of:

PG - Rodney Stuckey
SG - Rip Hamilton
SF - Tayshaun Prince
PF - Antonio McDyess
C - Joel Przybilla
6th - Travis Outlaw
B - Jason Maxiell
B - Jarvis Hayes
B - Amir Johnson
B - Lindsay Hunter

That's still a top 3-4 team in the East before loading up with all that extra talent.

Meanwhile, the Blazers would add a veteran point guard to their young mix and become more competitive more quickly. With the news that Rudy Fernandez is indeed coming over next year (and seems to have been promised a certain amount of playing time), the Blazers timeline is officially starting. I know Billups seemed a little run down this year, but I suspect he has at least 3-4 good years left and at $10 million a year, he isn't going to break the bank. I'd make a move for him now, try to sign more guy next summer with the cap space, and then just start extending everybody in sight on the way to a $100 million roster. The Blazers would have a lineup of:

PG - Chauncey Billups
SG - Brandon Roy
SF - Martell Webster
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge
C - Greg Oden
6th - Rudy Fernandez
B - Steve Blake
B - James Jones
B - Channing Frye
B - Jarrett Jack

I like the Billups trade for Portland because I just honestly believe that good point guards won't be available very often in the next few years and that if they don't get one, they are going to have a fatal flaw. Also, I think he is a perfect compliment to Roy in that he's more of a finishing point guard than a playmaker, but can share in those duties and give them a post-up heavy backcourt that will be murder on mismatches.

So what do you say ... is this a better idea than the last round of trade offerings, or have I officially lost my mind?

One Bullet Dodged

2008-06-06T23:46:00.002-05:00

Derrick Rose dodged a rather big bullet today when it was reported that Doug Collins would not, in fact, accept the Bulls' head coaching position. It seems increasingly likely (well, at least if you read Chad Ford) that Chicago will take the home-grown point guard with the first pick. The problem was that Collins' teams have always played a grueling pace, which would have put the brakes on Rose's electric potential. Now, the search is back on and I've already heard the name Chuck Person thrown out there. I have no idea how Person coaches, but it has to be more free-wheeling than Collins.

The other name I think we'll see surface? Avery Johnson. And if Devin Harris is a proxy for Rose, that isn't very good news either. Avery is a terrific guy and - I think - a fantastic coach, but he's not exactly a young point guard's best friends. I believe the expression is "control freak."

Anyway, it will be exciting to watch the most important story that virtually no one is talking about continue to unfold.

The Paul Pierce Dilemma

2008-06-06T23:40:00.002-05:00

It's been made very clear that Paul Pierce grew up in L.A. hating the Celtics and now he's a Celtic trying to beat L.A. Nice contrast.

But one thing that hasn't been widely reported is the possibility that L.A. residents are torn about whether to root for Pierce or the Lakers. I know at least three people who consider Pierce their favorite player because he is from their city, their neighborhood, and their high school. The allegiance to The Truth is almost off the charts.

These people are also huge Lakers fans.

So who do they root for now? The favorite player or the favorite team? On the one hand, a team is a larger entity and is more rooted in ongoing fandom. On the other hand, a team is made up of interchangeable people and parts and - as Jerry Seinfeld famously joked - is basically just a set of laundry that we root for or against. Pierce, on the other hand, is the native son. That might make for a pretty tough call.

Consider it one of the many interesting subplots and riveting conflicts that make this series so unique.

The Hidden Effect of Paul Pierce's Dramatic Comeback

2008-06-06T01:30:00.004-05:00

Kobe Bryant is a weird dude. We all know this. For most of his career, he has been too contrived to fully realize his abilities - too conscious of how he is perceived and too eager to prove people wrong. When he's criticized for shooting too much, he refuses to shoot. The opposite is true when he's nailed for being too passive. I've never been a big fan, but even I'll admit that there were times when he couldn't win.

But then again, he proved during the second half of this season that he has had the ability to play authentic ball within him all along. From the time the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol to the time they vanquished the Spurs, you didn't hear a negative word about Bryant's decision-making. The last three months have been a coronation, capped off with the top seed, the MVP, a dominant run through the Western Conference, and a spot in the NBA Finals.

Then ... bam. He gets to the Finals and seemingly reverts back to the old Kobe. The one who seems to formulate a plan during timeouts, that often completely ignores how the defense is playing him, and appears to decide what course of action to take long before he gets the ball. The fourth quarter saw him jacking up terrible shots, dribbling out the shot clock while facing big deficits, and generally trying to single-handedly beat triple-teams despite having Pau Gasol on his roster. It was bizarre.

The question is: what brought this on? I suppose it was just the bright lights of the Finals that scrambled his brain waves. Or maybe he was frustrated by the Boston defense that is clearly geared to turn him into a contested jump shooter. Maybe it was that old flash of Kobe anger when a teammate seems to be playing in quicksand (paging Luke Walton). Those are all valid theories. (I should add here that another valid theory is that Kobe didn't actually "revert back" at all, but simply didn't have much energy tonight. I noticed on several occasions that he just didn't seem to be playing with much emotion.)

I have another theory and I'll admit that it's not the most flattering - I think Kobe Bryant was jealous of Paul Pierce.

Look, even though Bryant was struggling through the first 29 minutes of the game, it was largely due to his jumper not falling. He was getting good looks in the flow of the offense and I don't think anyone could complain that he was forcing things one way or the other. In fact, just before Pierce went down like a sack of potatoes, Kobe had thrown down a ridiculous alley-oop where he hung in the air long enough to fetch a late pass from Derek Fisher.

[Update - he also had his finest play of the game at the 8:10 mark of the third quarter, when he knifed into the lane, drew a double, and lobbed up a beautiful pass to Gasol.]

But when Pierce proceeded to live out Kobe Bryant's dream scenario - suffering a legitimately scary injury, being carried to the locker room, courageously (or over-dramatically, depending on which team you are rooting for) returning to the court to a standing ovation, and then burying consecutive monster threes - Bryant just couldn't take it.

You see, there is only one thing that Bryant has always seemed to want more than rings - and that is glory. It's why he milked that ankle injury and Shaq foul-out against the Pacers back in the day and why he had the appetite to score 81 in a game. This guy wants to be remembered and worshiped the way Jordan was. Going into these finals, he has been compared favorably (and inappropriately, I might add) to MJ himself, and I think it all went to Kobe's head. He stepped on the floor tonight assuming that he would have a patented Jordan Finals game, and even when he got off to the sluggish start, he didn't mind, because that just fit into the "he gets his teammates going and only then takes over the game!" script.

But Paul Pierce just had to steal his thunder. Pierce already had a "legendary" game in these playoffs when he outdueled LeBron James in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference semis. And there has been a lot of hype about Pierce being the hardest guy for the Lakers to guard and a former L.A. kid and the longest tenured Celtics and the straw that stirs the drink and a whole lot of other things that probably had to irk Kobe just a little bit. I mean, if I was Kobe I would probably have a "Paul Pierce? Are you kidding me that he's getting similar pub?" approach to things as well.

The problem is that when you elevate glory to the top spot on your list of priorities, it can cloud the objective. Pierce had his day in the sun, his "one shining moment" ... and Kobe flipped out. For the rest of the game, he overplayed people on defense and put himself out of position. He took bad, contested shots - often with no rebounding. He held the ball and let the shot clock wind down. In short, he did all the "Bad Bryant" things that we thought were history.

If that game is in L.A., the Lakers win. If Paul Pierce stays in the locker room, the Lakers win (that one is pretty obvious, I imagine). If Pierce never gets hurt at all, the Lakers win. I'm absolutely convinced of that.

Because if anything had been different tonight, Piece wouldn't have become an instant hero, Kobe's glory-meter wouldn't have gone into the red, and he would have calmly and coolly executed Boston just like he did the Spurs.

But, it wasn't different. And now the Lakers have a new, old fear to contend with.

Blazer Blueprint

2008-06-02T19:10:00.003-05:00

In the midst of Lakers-Celtics mania, I can't stop thinking about ... the Blazers!

Okay, in all seriousness, it has more to do with the 19-day layoff between the conference finals and the duel for the grand prize, but either way, my mind has wandered back to my favorite team and what they should do next.

Without diving into all the nuanced information regarding salary structures and player availability, I believe I have stumbled onto a blueprint for my hometown team. Consider:

Move #1 - Trade blogging All-Star Channing Frye, Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, and Josh McRoberts to Miami for Udonis Haslem. All the fodder is required to make the numbers work, but the deal is excellent for both teams. Portland can clear some roster sports for Rudy Fernandez and their upcoming draft picks and get a veteran big man to add to the rotation for next year in the process. Haslem is a hard worker, a solid rebounder, and can knock down the 15-footer, which means he's perfect to play between Roy and Oden. As for the Heat, they would get a young big man to throw in their frontcourt mix with Michael Beasely and could add Jack to the backcourt with Wade.

Move #2 - (This one's a stretch) Trade LaMarcus Aldridge and the #13 pick for the rights to the #1 pick (and whoever has to be thrown in to make the numbers work). With this pick, the Blazers could select Derrick Rose ... and be set for the next decade. Chicago should be uneasy about drafting the hometown hero when they so badly need a post presence and are about to play sloooooooooooow ball under Doug Collins. Adding Aldridge to their young roster makes all the sense in the world and still gives them the #13 pick to play with. As for Blazers fans who would argue against dealing Aldridge, let me just say that the power forward pool is a lot deeper in the next two free agent classes. Plus, Rose is insanely good.

Move #3 - (Another stretch) Trade Travis Outlaw and Joel Przybilla for Tayshaun Prince. We are already starting to hear the whispers in Detroit that change is coming. Prince has the most years left on his deal and is coming off a career-worst series against Boston that maybe, just maybe, gives Portland a shot to snatch him up. Prince is the ideal guy to play the 3 for the Blazers, while Detroit could start turning the reins over to Rodney Stucky, Outlaw, Jason Maxiell, and Amir Johnson, with Billups, Sheed, and Rip still on board to give them one more shot at a title next year. I know this one is unlikely, but it is also the least necessary.

Move #4 - Make a play for Boozer in '09 or Amare in '10. Two massive free agent classes are on the horizon and both are loaded with power forwards. Part of my rationale for moving Aldridge is that you don't want to have a logjam at the position when a franchise free agent becomes available. Portland is set to have plenty of cap space in either of those two summers (a loose estimate puts them about $22 million under in 2009, before loading up the young guys with extensions - even with Prince's $8.5 million). I don't know if Portland can preserve that cap space until 2010, but if they can, Amare could be ripe for the picking. He has an opt-out year that summer and is not being paid the max. Plus, the Suns will be on the way down (way down) by then while the Blazers are jousting with the Lakers for Western Conference supremacy. I feel it in my bones - Amare in Portland!

Okay, maybe not. Which is why Carlos Boozer could be such a nice prize next summer. He's also making less than the max and has an opt-out year, so he could be on the move. I suspect the Jazz will get him paid up, but you never know - they seem pretty down on him these days. In Portland, Boozer wouldn't be asked to man the block (on either end of the floor) - just rebound and hit 15-footers.

Summary

The net effect of these moves is the following:

2008
PG - Derrick Rose
SG - Brandon Roy
SF - Tayshaun Prince (or Outlaw)
PF - Udonis Haslem
C - Greg Oden
6th - Rudy Fernandez
B - Steve Blake
B - Martell Webster
B - James Jones
B - Big Man TBD (2nd round pick - or Prezbo)

2010
PG - Rose
SG - Roy
SF - Prince (or Outlaw)
PF - Carlos Boozer/Amare Stoudemire
C - Oden
6th - Rudy
B - Blake
B - Webster
B - TBD (or Prezbo)
B - TBD

How does that team NOT win a title?

(If you answered either "The Lakers" or "Those deals would never happen in a million years," well, shut up.)

Well, I'm Exhausted

2008-05-23T00:51:00.002-05:00

Look, I hate to harp too much on the broadcasting of these playoff games, and I'm normally a fan of ESPN's lead team. But good night, nurse. Jeff Van Gundy and Co. absolute beat me into submission tonight with their analysis of Rajon Rondo's sketchy jumper.

Look, we all know that drilling open shots is not yet Rondo's forte. He's not a Vujacic or a Boobie Gibson type of player that just stands out there and stretches defenses. Okay, big deal. Is that the only skill that now matters in a basketball game?

To hear Beetlejuice tell it, Rondo is single-handedly destroying Boston's every offensive set simply by breathing and having a pulse. EVERY TIME someone from the C's would miss a shot or turn the ball over, JVG would chime in with, "It's because the Pistons are doubling off Rondo!" As for Mark Jackson, he would chide Rondo for not shooting every time the young point guard passed up a shot. It didn't matter if it was a wide open look that indeed warranted pulling the trigger (which happened maybe three times the whole game) or if it was just any crease, regardless of rhythm, time left on the shot clock, or available scoring options (this happened more like 96 times during the game). I know Rondo has to keep defenses honest, but this doesn't mean firing the ball up every time it hits his palms! Had he taken even 20% of the shots that Mark Jackson was advising, he would have been benched and blasted in every publication in America tomorrow morning.

Not only that, but repeatedly banging the Rondo Can't Shoot drum misses several other key points:

1. Rondo does other things. Sure, he missed a few open shots and passed up a few more. Yes, he's not yet effective at keeping defenses honest with his perimeter shooting. Again, big freaking deal. If he could do that, he'd be Deron Williams. And focusing on the negative ignores all the positives: he plays tenacious defense, he rebounds like a beast, he gashes the defense to create plays for teammates, he pushes the ball very well in transition, and he gets to the rim to create layups, free throw attempts, and even easy offensive rebounds for his squad. Tonight he nearly had a triple-double (10-9-8) and boasted a 4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio while holding Billups to 10 field goal attempts. You could tell that Mike Breen noticed, because he kept trying to sneak in Rondo's rebounding numbers. But to Jackson and the Juice, Rondo might as well have been winging the ball into the 19th row and defecating on the court.

2. The double teams come from other places as well, folks. I hate to break it to ESPN's esteemed analysts, but double-teaming is not unique. It happens to every team, in every game, on almost every trip down the court. Teams double hard up top to slow dribble penetration. Teams double in the post. They double on the wing. They trap in the corner. They double off the pick and roll. They double all the damn time! Tonight, when Eddie House replaced Rondo for a few ineffective minutes (House came right into the game, fouled Billups on a 3, jacked up a bad jump shot, caused KG to get an offensive foul by throwing a hideous entry pass, and kept them out of their offense by taking 16 seconds just to dribble to the three point line), Paul Pierce absorbed a double-team from Tayshaun Prince (his man) and Antonio McDyess (doubling off of P.J. Brown), spun away from the trap, and hit a tough fadeaway. What did Van Gundy say? "With Rondo out of the game, Pierce finally got single coverage." Um, no he didn't! Pierce didn't see single coverage all game. There was always someone lurking, ready to double. Always help defense just a few yards away. Whether that double came off of Rondo or Brown or Perkins or Posey (ironically, not one mention was made of Posey's 1-for-5 brickfest from three, which didn't exactly keep help defenders glued to him) or even KG wasn't really the issue. The point is that Detroit decided not to let Pierce beat them, to play aggressive help defense, and then try to recover on shooters - whoever that might be.

Now, I understand it is a little more noticeable when Rondo gives the ball up and peels toward the corner, only to have his defender leave him to go trap. But guys get open due to help defense all the time. This is not unique. It is not special. It is not some Rondo-specific issue. It boggles my mind to hear it presented that way.

Not only that, but while Rondo didn't make the double-teams pay with jumpers, he did kill them with offensive rebounds, plays in the passing lanes, and other mischief that went unchecked because he didn't have someone putting a body on him.

If anything, he should be applauded for having such an impact on the game without being a great shooter. Put a sock in it, Beetlejuice.

Hilarious

2008-05-22T00:13:00.003-05:00

One thing I've noticed this year in the playoffs is that announcers (save for maybe ESPN's lead team of Mark Jackson, Jeff Van Gundy, and Mike Breen) REFUSE to criticize the referees for anything. This, despite the fact that NBA officials are an abomination.

Tonight, Kobe Bryant employed a move in the third quarter that was clearly a travel, yet Doug Collins exclaimed, "Guard that!"

Well, you can't "guard that" - not when a guy is allowed to take six, yes SIX, steps. Watching in real time, you could see that Kobe, at the very least, took multiple steps and changed pivot feet. Watching in slow motion, his sequence was:

Left
Right
Right
Left
Right
Left

Yes, six steps in all. Yet no travel. Only a "guard that!" taunt from Doug Collins. Nice job by everyone. Real fine work at the highest levels.

Latest On Hoops Addict

2008-05-21T02:48:00.002-05:00

My latest column for HoopsAddict is up on their site and it was a pretty fun one to write.

Check it out here.

"In and Out"

2008-05-19T22:45:00.002-05:00

"In and Out" - a terrible Kevin Klein movie?

Yes, but also the title of Game Seven between the Hornets and Spurs. New Orleans' fantastic season came to a bitter end at home tonight when shot after shot after shot after shot found nothing but rim. It was painful to watch. Even more painful was watching uber villain Robert Horry being rewarded yet again with open threes. The NBA, more than any other sport, feels awfully unfair sometimes.

Alright, I never thought I would say this, but GO LAKERS!

Long Offseason Ahead

2008-05-17T00:24:00.002-05:00

It looks like it might be a long summer for Carlos Boozer.

Not only did he struggle mightily against both the Rockets and the Lakers this spring, not only did his team seem to play much better when he was off the court, and not only did the NBA apparently amend the rule book (Section 8.6 now reads: "Any contact on Carlos Boozer is allowed, at any time, regardless of the severity or the impact on the play"), but Boozer's kryptonite was on full display for all the world to see.

Boozer plays below the rim in an above the rim world.

It's pretty much as simple as that. He had a hard time with Duncan last year in the postseason but nobody really noticed because the Jazz weren't quite ready for prime time. But this year, with Deron Williams taking his game to the crazy next level and with an improved bench, Utah was poised to emerge as the West's best. Alas, it became very apparent that Boozer struggles mightily against taller, more athletic players. As in, he can't get a clean shot off. And he throws passes away because he's trying to move to quickly. And he changes pivot feet.

It was actually pretty hard to watch. And it doesn't stand to get any easier for Boozer next year. The Lakers will be even taller and more athletic with Bynum back in the mix. Tyson Chandler and the Hornets will be bringing the Birdman back into the fold (goodbye, Melvin Ely). The Spurs will no doubt find a way to extend their deal with the devil. Shaq and Yao and Camby and Biedrins will all be around. And, most terrifying yet, the Blazers will be adding Oden to a front line of LaMarcus Aldridge and Joel Pryzbilla. Will Boozer ever get off another clean shot attempt?

My man has a lot to think about this summer, that's for sure.

No Class

2008-05-16T11:26:00.003-05:00

If I ever needed yet another reason to root against the Spurs, I got it last night when the home crowd rose in unison to chant Robert Horry's name after he re-injured David West's back. Horry is nothing but a hatchet man and has come to represent the incredibly lucky and shady ways that the Spurs are surviving in these modern day playoffs. San Antonio would not have beat Phoenix last year without the suspensions and they would not be able to beat the Hornets in New Orleans with a healthy David West. Alas, there were suspension and West is not healthy and so the wins pile up. And Horry is always there, standing over a fallen player, smug and proud of his pathetic enforcer role.

Even worse than Horry though is every single person in San Antonio last night who lifted his voice to chant Horry's name. Being a villain is one thing. But the people who turn the villain into the hero just because he wears their uniform are beyond pathetic.

Have I mentioned how sick of the Spurs I am? Chris Paul, please, find some way to end this.

Rondo to the Rescue; Utah is a One-Man Team

2008-05-15T01:39:00.004-05:00

Quick hits from tonight's games:

1. Boston better be glad that Rajon Rondo was in uniform tonight, because he saved them from going down 3-2, probably losing the series, and being viewed as a giant disappointment. The Celtics were crapping the bed tonight as all their veteran stars played with a "oh crap, we are about to choke" look on their face. But then the young point guard came swooping in to drain threes, take the Cavs out of their offense (more on this in a minute), and go for 20 and 13. He literally saved the season.

(One more note on Rondo, pertaining to the immortal broadcasting duo of Dick Stockton and Mike Fratello. They spent so much time raving about Doc Rivers that they failed to note the key factor in the game, which was Rondo's defense on Cleveland's point guards. He was so dominant on that end of the floor that Mike Brown had to use LeBron just to get the ball up the floor and initiate the offense. This, of course, took James away from the spots on the floor where he'd been so successful in the first half. When LeBron can use screens and get on the block and work from angles, the Cavs are actually at least mediocre. But when he has to start the offense and do all the ball handling, they are atrocious. Rondo single-handedly forced them into the latter. Yet no mention of this was made. Not once. Good job, guys. On the plus side, they lavished praise on Rivers for having the genius to "insert Rondo into the game for Sam Cassell in the second quarter." Oh, really, putting your starting point guard back in after his regular rest is genius now? Good night.)

2. The Jazz are officially a one-man team. In the playoffs, you need multiple players that can step up and carry you for stretches of games. The Pistons have Billups, Hamilton, Wallace, AND Prince that can do it. The Celtics have, well, presumably they have guys that can do it (provided they are playing at home). The Spurs have Parker, Manu, and Duncan. The Hornets have CP3 and David West. The Lakers have Bryant, Gasol, and Odom. The only remaining teams that don't? The Cavs and the Jazz. Cleveland, you know about, with LeBron being the only guy on that team that can create his own shot, generate plays for others, or finish on a consistent basis (and since he can't clone himself to achieve all three at once, it makes things tough ... as Jay-Z would say, "Hello, Brooklyn!"). But wasn't Utah supposed to have the two studs in the "Next Stockton and Malone"? Um, somebody forgot to fill Carlos Boozer in on that deal. His below-the-rim style, rushed shots around the basket, and moronic turnovers are absolutely killing Utah. So while Williams continues to play like a beast, the Jazz can't quite get over the hump against a Lakers team that was ripe for the taking tonight. As Avery Johnson said in the postgame, if they get even a little bit from Boozer inside, they win that game.

Minor Observations on Hornets-Spurs

2008-05-14T09:32:00.002-05:00

I only caught the second half of game 5 of Hornets-Spurs last night, but being a member of Section F and occasional contributor, I'd weigh in and take some pressure off of Adam. Here are some minor things I noticed:

1) David West wants it more. West just looked like he was trying harder than anyone on the court, and especially anyone on the Spurs, last night. He was forcing his way into the low post (Fabricio Oberto, any time you want to use your body, go ahead) and just willing shots into the basket. The Spurs looked passive, and the Hornets, and especially West, were the aggressors.

2) The Spurs need to stop whining. This has been mentioned a lot on this blog by Adam, but usually their constant complaining seems to benefit them, and they get some calls. However, it is clear that last year's Tim Duncan-Joey Crawford fiasco has not endeared the Spurs to Crawford. Now, it seems like they expend more effort trying to win with their mouths than their bodies. Shut up and play, boys.

3) This Hornets team is limited by a weakness on the wings. Peja Stojakovic played well the first two games of the series, but he is clearly past his prime, and would be more of a shooter off of the bench for a championship-level team. He is also slow on defense. And while Mo Pete hit four threes last night, I still think he stinks. His D isn't great, and his skill (shooting) just duplicates Peja's. They need an athlete who can cover opponents' top wing players. Ultimately, they should have signed Ime Udoka in the offseason, or start giving Julian Wright more of a chance. I shudder to think of who would guard Kobe in the next round, if that is how this matchup plays out.

4) Chris Paul is awesome. Everyone has already discussed this, so I don't need to say much, but it needs to be mentioned. David West is good, and Chandler is solid, but beyond that, this team is extremely shallow talent-wise. Paul does more with less than anyone else in the league. His body control and ability to set himself in the air and get a controlled shot off is incredible. He is carrying this team, and makes it look easy. His spectacular play seems to make up for all the Hornets' other weaknessess.

A Simple Request

2008-05-12T01:57:00.003-05:00

I've made no secret of the fact that I don't much like Kobe Bryant (who I believe is selfish and contrived) and that I'm beyond sick of the San Antonio Spurs, so this post probably comes to the surprise of no one. But I have one simple request for these playoffs: give me Deron Williams vs. Chris Paul.

I can take or leave the Celtics and Cavs. I don't care that much about the Pistons or Magic. But man, oh man, I REALLY want Utah and New Orleans to meet in the Western Conference Finals.

Can you imagine Williams and Paul going head-to-head for somewhere between four and seven games? In New Orleans (a new basketball madhouse) and Utah? The #3 pick going against the #4 pick? The two best point guards in the world right now? Williams' power and decision-making and deep stroke against Paul's speed and feel and ridiculous handle?

Sign me up right now.

Kobe: Faker or Ballhog?

2008-05-12T01:45:00.002-05:00

Sorry, Lakers fans. Sorry, Kobe lovers. Tonight you get just one choice when it comes to your MVP: was Kobe Bryant a big faker or just a ballhog during Sunday's game at Utah.

I ask this question because of some pretty simple facts:

1. Bryant apparently suffered through a back injury all game. (I say "apparently" because I'm never quite sure with this guy. He has a history of milking injuries for dramatic effect and is the king of playing 100% while trying to score and then limping off the court during timeouts. Plus, his dramatic halftime report to Pam Oliver detailed his back injury, but Utah's Deron Williams thought it was an "ankle tweak." Anytime the other team doesn't even know what the injury is leads me to believe it might not be as life-threatening as Mike Tirico makes it out to be.)

2. Bryant shot 33 times.

Okay, if you are so injured that you have to grimace and wince and limp around and lay on the floor all game, then why on earth are you shooting 33 times? More to the point, why are you shooting 33 times when you are only making 13 of them and you have Pau Gasol (11-for-16) on your team?

Look, you can't have it both ways. You can't try (for the umpteenth time) to replicate Jordan's Flu Game and then shoot your team out of the contest. And if you are healthy enough to jack up 33 FGA's, then you shouldn't be milking an injury like it's career threatening.

I was always told that if you are injured, than you don't play. If you are merely hurt, then you suck it up and stop making a big scene.

In this case, if Kobe was as hurt as he made himself out to be today, then he should have got out of the way. The Lakers were playing great basketball when they were running and cutting and moving. When Gasol was operating inside. When Odom was isolating Boozer at the top of the key. When Fisher was draining deep threes. But there was Limpy McGee, jacking up wild shots from all over the court, trying to take his man one-on-one, milking every moment with that creepy "are they zooming right now?" awareness he's always had regarding the broadcasting of his profession.

So which was it, Kobe? Were you exaggerating your injury for maximum media effect? Or were you so arrogant and selfish that you put your team's chances in jeopardy? I don't see any other option on this one.

Sweet Justice

2008-05-11T17:37:00.002-05:00

The Utah Jazz pulled out a 123-115 overtime victory over the Lakers today and for that I can only say, thank goodness, because they nearly got screwed worse than any team this postseason.

Obviously, officiating is a constant problem with the NBA Playoffs, because you have three (often times old) dudes trying to chase 10 supreme athletes up and down the court. The current officiating model is so broken that it's a joke we aren't trying to fix it. Therefore, a good percentage of the plays and of the entire games are sullied by one terrible call after another.

But today's LA-Utah game might take the cake. The first 45 minutes of the contest weren't unusual as the officiating team made some good calls and some bad ones and seemed to go both ways with each variety. The only major issue was the Turiaf ejection in the first half, but that only seemed controversial because Mike Tirico and Hubie Brown were so clueless as to the reason the Frenchman was ejected. Turiaf got the Flagrant 2 and the boot because he fouled Ronnie Price AFTER the whistle had blown out on the perimeter. They spent 10 minutes dissecting arm angles and attempts to go for the ball, but all that stuff was beside the point.

Anyway. For most of the game, the refs were fine. Then, they collectively lost their minds with four of the worst calls I've seen this postseason. All of which came in an 8-minute stretch from the close of regulation through overtime. And all four went against the home team.

1. Mehmet Okur's T. This was pure garbage. Okur got called for a very close foul when he nearly snuck in and poked the ball away from Odom. Then, when he expressed his frustration by swinging his arm in frustration, he got hit with a technical. I still can't fathom how Eddie F. Rush could justify that T. What did Okur do? Guys do that - and worse - on 95% of the calls during every single game. And you're going to hit a guy with a tech in the closing minutes of a must-win playoff game? Nice. (By the way, that free throw was the difference between Utah winning the game by one in regulation and going to overtime.)

2. The offensive foul on Kyle Korver. Early in overtime, Korver had the ball out top and was dealing with Vujacic, who was employing Derek Fisher's favorite move, which is when the defender pokes and bodies the offensive player repeatedly and then takes a dive when the offensive player asserts his space by swinging he ball through. There is a slight chance that Korver tapped Vujacic's arm when he swung his elbow through, but even if he did, he has a right to that space. You can't swing your elbows out at a defender, but you can pull the ball through anytime you want. If the defensive player happens to get in the way, tough luck for him. I learned this in like fourth grade at basketball camp - it's one of the most basic concepts in the book. But since Vujacic took his Fisher dive, the weakside official decided to come tearing in to make the offensive foul call. Horrible.

3. Not long after the Jazz got hosed on an offensive call, they were then on the bad end of another missed block/charge call when Kobe Bryant got cut off by Kirilenko on the sideline and then just shoved AK-47 to the ground. It was as obvious as charging calls get in the NBA and the perfect chance for a good old-fashioned makeup call. So what's the determination? Blocking foul. Holy hell.

4. Finally, Derek Fisher was trying to probe the defense late in the extra frame when he chicken-winged Deron Williams to the floor. Granted, Williams flopped to sell the call, but until the league decides to crack down on flopping, you can't punish a guy for doing what everyone else does. In fact, the very guy throwing an elbow - Fisher - invented that move. But instead, they somehow found reason to charge Williams with a foul (even if you think it was a flop, the worst possible outcome for Utah should have been a no-call).

If you've read this blog for any length of time, you know I'm not a Utah fan or apologist. I have nothing against them, but I'm a Blazers guy and when Portland isn't in the mix, I root for the frenzied teams like the old Suns, the Warriors, and the Nuggets. Plus, I'm a big McGrady guy, so that takes the Jazz down a peg. But on this day, I was the biggest Jazz fan alive, because had they lost because of those four atrocious calls, it would have been a crime.

Paging Carlos Boozer ...

2008-05-08T01:40:00.002-05:00

Holy moly. Did someone poison Carlos Boozer's food? Kill his beloved pet?

I mean, this guy is supposed to be an All-Star player and the straw that stirs the drink for Utah and he's a complete no-show right now. Can Utah get a refund?

In fact, there were several players tonight that should have been cutting the check with a money back guarantee for their employers. These are guys that couldn't find any semblance of a game when their teams needed them most. Guys that I wouldn't want on my rec league team right now. They are:

Carlos Boozer, team captain.

Hedo Turkaglu (his stats always turn out okay, but he commits the most horrific turnovers and has the worst shot selection I've ever seen).

Matt Harpring.

Rasheed Wallace (more temper tantrums than field goals, quit on this team multiple times)

I wanted to find a fifth starter, but nobody quite measured up to the ineptitude of the four guys above. So congrats, fellas, you were in a league of your own.

Oh. My. Goodness.

2008-05-06T23:24:00.002-05:00

The Boston-Cleveland game was arguably the worst basketball game I've ever seen in my life.

- LeBron with the worst game of his career.

- Ray Allen with the worst game of his career.

- Ilgauskas shooting an eight-footer but only getting making it two feet.

- Mike Brown and Doc Rivers making coaching look extremely difficult.

I'm still in shock from how completely and truly miserable that viewing experience was.

Paul Plays D

2008-05-06T01:32:00.004-05:00

It was a wild night in the NBA tonight (the Magic getting ripped off by the NBA, the Spurs getting ripped by the Hornets), but one thing stood out to me and it needs to be addressed:

Chris Paul can play some defense.

Late in the season - probably in response to the raging MVP debate - a flurry of stats came out that attempted to prove that Paul was an inferior defensive player. Something about adjusted plus/minus numbers that proved New Orleans was a defensively superior team when Paul was off the floor. It all struck me as overly complicated and ignorant of some critical factors such as: pace, who the backups are guarding, and garbage time minutes. Plus, I just felt like I'd rather trust my eyes on this one, since Paul always seemed to be a disruptive factor on both ends of the court.

[Update: It appears that I'm quite the rube when it comes to understanding Adjusted Plus/Minus. See the comments below, to which I have no real counter. So I definitely back off my harsh critique of the stats, but remain certain that his work on defense was the key to last night's game.]

Tonight, I felt validated, because Chris Paul was a monster.

Sure, he dominated offensively, but what else is new. He had 30 and 12 with just one turnover, continuing his reign of terror over opposing defenses. He embarrassed defenders with ridiculous slashing drives, hit tough floaters, and set up Chandler for dunks and Peja for threes. In other words, he had a typical Chris Paul game.

It was on defense where I really took notice of his ability to control the game. He kept Tony Parker completely under wraps with great footwork and an innate ability to go under or over screens when the situation calls for it. The NBA is such a pick-and-roll league than when a perimeter guy can deftly slide around screeners, it makes everything easier for the defense. So that's one skill that he's got in spades, adjusted plus/minus be damned.

Another area where Paul is terrific is as a double-teamer. He's so quick and has such instincts that he can get down to double from virtually anywhere on the floor, no matter how many passes away he is from the target. He's not as good at closing out (mainly because he likes to lurk around for steals), but when the game plan is to funnel the ball back out, that's not a huge problem. He did a great job harassing Duncan in the lowpost tonight and has quietly been the key to New Orleans' success doubling everything.

Paul's also a vacuum on long rebounds and with his speed and ball-handling, he can turn a bricked three into two points in mere seconds. In fact, his hands are so strong and he moves from the glass to full speed so quickly that long rebounds are pretty much turnovers for the Spurs. Parker actually does this as well, but he's an inferior rebounder to Paul, so it doesn't happen as often.

Finally, there are the steals. Everyone knows Paul is the best in the game at picking pockets and playing passing lanes, but the thing that makes his thievery special is his timing. Nearly every steal is a back-breaker for the opponent. He doesn't just tip balls to a teammate and then trot the ball up the floor, but instead he slips around a dribbler, knocks the ball loose, and takes off for a transition basket. Or he scores and quickly pivots to steal and score for a four-point swing. Or he'll break up an opponent's fast break by recovering from a Hornets' turnover and jumping the outlet pass. It's just sick how good he is in the lanes.

All told, he's actually dominating the game from the defensive end of the floor. Not only is New Orleans far better off with him on the court (as always, blindly trust stats are your own peril), you would be hard pressed to find a perimeter defender having as big of an impact on the NBA playoffs.

So let's put all the "weak defense" nonsense to rest, because this guy can play some D.

Suns-Red Sox

2008-04-29T20:11:00.002-05:00

If you like awesome articles, head on over to Hoops Addict to check out my latest column that compares the Suns to the 2004 Red Sox.

Even after finishing the piece, I realized that there are even more comparisons to be made:

Mike D'Antoni to Terry Francona. Both have unmitigated belief in their teams, neither is much of a strategic force.

Steve Nash to Pedro Martinez. Each was dominant as a small man, each had an apex of pure brilliance, and each give you the sad impression that they are being bullied and picked on by their tormenters (Spurs or Yankees), even as they are playing beautifully.

Amare Stoudemire to Manny Ramirez. Offensive savants ... no defense at all.

Raja Bell to Orlando Cabrera. Both play with a chip on their shoulder and don't back down from anyone and both have the ability to make huge plays under pressure.

We could probably do this all day.

How to Fix the Mavs (Plus, How to Fix the Nuggets!)

2008-04-29T19:33:00.002-05:00

Right about now, when teams start advancing in the playoffs, we have to start talking about ways to fix those squads that lost. We're wondering how Toronto will finally sort out their point guard mess. Whether the Rockets have some Miracle Grow for Yao's bones. And, this year, what on earth the Mavs and Nuggets are supposed to do with their train wreck rosters.

Look, I know that the goal in the NBA is to win a title. But sometimes the goal is to get younger. Or to achieve cap flexibility. Or to remain competitive and entertaining while riding out an era.

That last situation is where both Dallas and Denver find themselves.

In the case of Dallas, I think we can admit that Mark Cuban's gamble did not work out. His decision to stay with Dirk through thick and thin is admirable, but it won't net a title unless they get insanely lucky sometime in the next few years. They had their best shot in 2006 and just missed. That's life. But the Kidd trade has made things worse and they now have this half-breed team that features a defensive-minded coach and an offensive-minded star. Dallas can't fix things with minor tweaks, they have to do something major. And that means trading Dirk or changing the makeup of the team. I vote for the latter, since dealing a top five player is never a good idea.

As for Denver, these guys are actually really close to being good. The problem lies squarely with Carmelo Anthony. He's a putrid defensive player that provides no value at that end (Allen Iverson, the other defensively-challenged star of the Nuggets, still plays the passing lanes well and can turn defense into offense with steals) and on offense, he tends to stray from the basket and wait too long to make decisions. The Nuggets have a few pieces in place - Iverson, Martin, Camby, Kleiza - to be an outstanding running team. But Melo doesn't do the proper things on offense or defense that lead to a good running game. The Nuggets play fast, but they don't actually run well. So Anthony has to go.

It probably won't surprise you to learn that I believe these two teams can just trade with each other and get the whole thing over with. Here's the deal, provided it works under the cap:

Dallas sends Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith to Dallas for Josh Howard and Jason Terry.

The Mavericks would be able to roll out one of the most potent offensive teams in the league - a squad that could run like crazy, run two stud forwards in the post, and create mismatches all over the floor. The Mavs would need to jettison all their creaky veterans and replace them with young, active role players, but I really like the idea of the following starting lineup:

PG Jason Kidd
SG J.R. Smith
SF Carmelo Anthony
PF Dirk Nowitzki
C Brandon Bass
6th Jerry Stackhouse
B Erick Dampier
B TBD
B TBD

This lineup would allow them to play small and fast (Bass would give up size to opposing centers, but could outrun them at the other end), get Dirk and Smith bombing threes in transition, and put Melo in good positions to score. There would be no illusions of defense at all, but so long as they handed the reigns to an offensive-minded guy (maybe just move Paul Westphal over a seat?, those could be glorious. Dallas could score 115 points a game, remain in the playoff hunt, and ride out the rest of Kidd's contract in entertaining fashion. I see nothing wrong with that.

As for Denver, the Nuggets could solve oh so many issues here. They can sell high on Smith and get value back for a guy that will never quite fit with their roster (he needs to play shooting guard, but so does Iverson). They can replace some of Melo's scoring in a way that is more conducive to the pace they want to play. And they can dramatically improve both their perimeter defense and their point guard play. Their lineup would look like this:

PG Jason Terry
SG Allen Iverson
SF Josh Howard
PF Kenyon Martin
C Marcus Camby
6th Linas Kleiza
B Nene
B Eduardo Najera
B Chucky Atkins

The only problem with Denver's starting lineup is that they lack a guy who can operate on the low block, but they have Nene coming off the bench, so that problem is mitigated. Plus, it is worth it to lose Melo's post presence in order to move forward with a fast, sleek roster that can trap and press aggressively and move the ball on offense. Think: Philadelphia 76ers, but better.

Anyway, I doubt this will ever happen because making these trades will feel too much like waving the white flag, but it is high time both these franchises realized that they need to lower expectations in order to meet them. By making this deal they can start fresh, employ a new approach, remain competitive, and put on a good show while hoping to catch that miraculous break that allows them to challenge for a title.

It's better than what they've got now.

Blame the Spurs

2008-04-29T02:30:00.002-05:00

Last post of the night and it should be a fun one, since San Antonio fans hate me already.

I've been having a lot of interesting conversations with hesitant and recalcitrant NBA fans lately and as exciting as this season has been, as good as the playoffs could be, and as amazing as the newest stars are, there is still something holding people back from fully embracing the sport once again. Maybe it is the lingering resentment over the early part of this decade, with all the bad offense, bloated contracts, and shady shoe company dealings, but that seems like a stretch. After all, we are an "out of sight, out of mind" culture. Perhaps, instead, it is David Stern. There is no denying that he defines the word "pedantic," that he is (at best) a worm in regard to this whole Seattle fiasco, and that he seems grossly out of touch with his league's fan base (assuming that he even considers Americans to be part of the NBA's fan base anymore). He certainly seems to popping up on this blog a lot tonight, but I doubt that the average non-Sonics, non-Suns NBA fan really cares that much about Stern.

So what's the problem? Why can't people go nuts like those fans in Atlanta tonight or the people at Oracle last spring and fully celebrate the ascension of Chris Paul and the continued dominance of LeBron James and the sheer power of Dwight Howard and the coronation of Kobe Bryant?

I think it boils down to a couple of simple things and they are both happening on the court.

1. The first issue is the flopping. It's no secret that flopping is completely out of control right now. Jeff Van Gundy went on a rant about it on Sunday when Raja Bell went horizontal trying to flop his way into taking a charge. Guys are flopping in the lane, flopping at halfcourt, flopping on defense, flopping on offense. It's completely out of control.

2. The second issue is the complaining. Supposedly, this was issue #1 last year until Stern got distracted by the 80 million fans tuning in to games in China and lost interest in quality control and the league abandoned its T Brigade halfway through the season, never to mention it again. (Honestly, does anyone else find it weird that they were dishing out technical fouls left and right for every hint of emotion and then just stopped? That's not odd to anyone?) Now guys are complaining more than ever, spending half the game playing and the other half yapping and gesturing and pleading like a third strike defendant before the sentencing judge.

No matter how good the players are, the aesthetic of basketball is interrupted and diminished when guys are flopping and whining for 48 minutes. These are disturbing, disturbing trends.

And I blame the San Antonio Spurs entirely for both of them.

You see, everyone wants to imitate a winner. That's why you see different player types, offenses, and strategies become vogue in all sports. Big point guards, fast linebackers, patient leadoff hitters, whatever. And in the NBA, the Spurs have been the team that everyone wants to copy in all the wrong ways.

If teams really wanted to emulate the Spurs they would do what the Blazers are doing. Clean house, bring in guys who will accept coaching and play as a team, anchor the roster with defense, move the ball, plan ahead, and so on. But that takes too much effort and too much patience and so instead, teams latch on to the negative aspects of the Spurs "dynasty" (are we calling them a dynasty?). And that would be flopping and complaining.

The former is the forte of one Manu Ginobili. He actually flops far less now than he used to, but during the 2005 season (when the Spurs beat the Pistons for the title), he was like Dick Fosbury out there. It was downright comical ... except that it worked unbelievably well. I can't tell you how many bogus calls he got during the '05 Playoffs. The number is off the charts. And guess what? I wasn't the only one who noticed. Opposing players, coaches, and scouts noticed. And so when the 2006 season kicked off, so did the Year of the Swan Dive. And once people got the hang of it, it really picked up steam. By 2007, big men decided to get in the act and even started taking dives out past the three-point line. It became so common and so rewarded that announcers soon began to praise players for it. Madness! What started as Ginobili's own, weasely homage to soccer quickly became a league-wide epidemic simply because people thought it might work as well for them as it did for the Spurs.

The latter trait is the purview of Tim Duncan. And Bruce Bowen. And Coach Pop. And, well, all the Spurs. I've long held that for all their acumen, skill, teamwork, and mental toughness, the Spurs are the whiniest bunch of champions I've ever seen. If you pour through the game film from the last eight years, you will find something startling: this team has never committed a foul, nor have they ever missed a shot without being fouled. It's true - just ask them! I understand that I could be describing every team in the league at this point, but it wasn't always this way. No, this was a San Antonio (and, if we’re being honest, Gary Payton) specialty. As with flopping, it seemed to work. Tim Duncan started to get so many calls (check out his free throw numbers for a few key series from 2002-2005) while still maintaining his choir boy/poker face reputation (how people could say his expression never changes is one of life's great mysteries) in the media, that it seemed like a no-brainer to follow in his footsteps. Not getting enough calls? Just complain about everything and you can eventually wear down the officials.

Now, of course, flopping and complaining are hit-or-miss propositions. Sometimes you can get a cheap call by throwing yourself on the ground and occasionally you can be the squeaky wheel that gets the whistle, but just as often, you merely ruin the game by tromping around like a petulant child and selling out like a punk by launching yourself into the third row.

This goes for everyone from Manu Ginobili to Tim Duncan to my favorite player Allen Iverson to my hometown Blazers.

We're sick of the flopping.

We're sick of the complaining.

The two forces are conspiring to ruin a wonderful postseason.

And, yes, I blame the Spurs.

Particularly Bad Officiating

2008-04-29T02:14:00.002-05:00

It really isn't worth pointing out crummy officiating in the NBA, because it sucks almost every night. And yes, I know that it is better in the NBA than at any other level of basketball (see: Tournament, NCAA, and Olympics, Athens), but that rationalization is becoming tired. If this is the best we can do than we need to figure something else out. Maybe assign specific refs to call specific penalties like in a soccer. Maybe use two 3-man teams, one at each end of the court. Maybe incorporate technology the way they do in tennis. Instant replay? An appeals system? Abolition of the foul limit? Your guess is as good as mine. But something has to happen, because other than David Stern’s arrogance, the officiating is the only thing standing in the way of a complete resurgence for NBA basketball.

Anyway, all of that said, I just had to point out that the officiating in tonight’s Lakers-Nuggets game was particularly bad, even by NBA, sorry, basketball standards. Dick Bavetta looked like he got his assignment from the league mixed up and accidentally made all his horrible calls against the hometown Nuggets rather than for them. Joe Forte looked like he just won a fan contest and was officiating a game for the first time in his life. I mean, this was a joke. On one sequence, Forte called a phantom offensive foul, then watched Kobe take four steps without dribbling, and then - maybe it was his way of evening things out - let Marcus Camby club Bryant on the head with both forearms. I saw guys getting knocked over with no calls, then, seconds later, hit with whistles for slight bumps. I think this team went about 0-for-15 on the tricky block/charge call, never once guessing right (because lets be honest, they were guessing). It was just garbage and it was no wonder that everyone was complaining.

And even though it ultimately didn't amount to much (I couldn't even tell who it favored, although at gunpoint I'd say the Lakers - not that it mattered since this series was o-v-e-r), it just ruined the game.

More generally, poor officiating is threatening to ruin a lot of games and maybe even the entire postseason.

We've got to figure something out.

JJ Comes Up Big in Winning Time

2008-04-29T02:08:00.002-05:00

Given the media's obsession with fourth quarter scoring (see: McGrady, Tracy), I expect people to go positively crazy about Joe Johnson's 20-spot in the final frame of tonight's game against the Celtics. And in this case, the attention will be deserved, because he was incredible. The C's were throwing obvious double-teams at him on every trip and still he kept finding a way to slip into the lane for floaters and step back for tough jumpers. I have to say, it was a very Kobe Bryant-esque performance from Johnson.

Two follow-up thoughts:

1. How crazy is it that Joe Johnson is about to outlast the Suns and that the Sixers have outlasted Allen Iverson? The NBA is a strange land these days.

2. The Hawks will probably still lose this series in 6, but they now have something great to build on going forward. They have a legit nucleus in Johnson, Josh Smith, and Al Horford, a good stopgap veteran in Mike Bibby, and a solid rotation player in Josh Childress. If they can find a taker for Marvin Williams and bring in a rebounding big man and a playmaking point guard, they will really have something working. (And I'm sorry, no matter how many times it has been said I can't resist ... why, oh why, couldn't the Hawks have just drafted Chris Paul?)

Gotta Love That Age Limit

2008-04-29T01:45:00.002-05:00

Unfortunately, the Warriors missed the playoffs, which A) led to the Nuggets being embarrassed by the Lakers, and B) left Monta Ellis out of the postseason spotlight. This last part is a shame because Ellis is one of the primary examples of why the age limit is the dumbest thing about today's NBA (well, except for the flopping, the playoff seeding, the "leave the bench" rule, and Clay Bennett). I was looking forward to several games of David Stern pretending to grin while Ellis swooped all over the court.

Luckily, many others have picked up the slack. Sure, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Amare Stoudemire, and Dwight Howard (and, to a lesser extent, the star-crossed Tracy McGrady and the foul-prone Tyson Chandler) are making a killing, but proponents of the age limit are always able to sidestep such evidence by saying, "Oh, but they were the sure things. What about the high risk picks!" Fair enough, Sternites.

The problem there is that even the high risk picks do better going straight to the NBA. In fact, I examined every draft from this decade and found that the age limit can't possibly be a good thing. And logically, this makes sense. Of course a player is going to develop faster by practicing with and against NBA players every day and learning from NBA coaches. It's not rocket science. Of course, this learning comes on the NBA's dime, which is where David Stern comes in. He'd rather shuffle those costs down to the NCAA, where "student athletes" go to college for free to get a sham education and get rid of their turnover-prone ways before the corporate sponsors and front row fat cats have to be subjected to them. Let's call a spade a spade.

But I digress. This post is meant to point out yet another great night for those folks who oppose the age limit. Because on this night, prep-to-pros players were straight up killing it.

In Orlando, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis (who is earning a mere $126 million despite being an "at-risk" second round pick in 1998 - bad move coming out early on his part) combined for 39 points and 34 rebound while lifting the Magic to a 4-1 series victory over the Raptors.

In Atlanta, the Hawks won a thrilling game and evened their series against the Celtics. And while Joe Johnson was the scoring star late, it was Josh Smith who carried Atlanta to the victory, scoring 28 points (including 12 in the fourth quarter) and blocking an insane seven shots.

In Denver, J.R. Smith proved to be unstoppable at times as he and Allen Iverson nearly carried the apathetic and disappointing Nuggets to a Game Four victory. Smith scored 26 points on a dizzying array of deep threes (like, 30 feet deep) and slashing drives, showing the full range of his development.

And, of course, Kobe was unguardable and KG was a beast.

Six guys, drafted everywhere from #1 overall to the second round, all looming large over the proceedings. In fact, among former high schoolers, only Kendrick Perkins had anything short of a monster game and even he played pretty well, going for 6 and 9 in 24 minutes for the Celtics.

But hey, go on telling everyone the age limit is great for the game, David Stern. Condescending your fan base is what you do best.

Oh, Mike Fratello

2008-04-28T22:39:00.002-05:00

How about this gem during the Hawks-Celtics game tonight: "Sometimes there are plays that don't show up on the stat sheet, that just help your team wins games."

This, as the highlight shows Josh Childress grabbing an offensive rebound and then throwing an assist to Mike Bibby.

What stat sheet does Fratello typically consult anyway? I mean, Childress picked up not one, but two of the "big three" stats on the same play!

Speaking of Woofing

2008-04-28T18:45:00.003-05:00

I just wanted to point out that I saw three teams win Game Three at home this weekend and act like they just cured the common cold. The Mavericks, Wizards, and Raptors all managed to avoid getting swept and then stomped around the court, waving their arms, and pounding their chests. In each instance, I marvelled at how much they thought of themselves for doing so little. The expression "act like you've been there before" came to mind.

Perhaps not surpisingly, each of these three teams got smacked down on their own home courts in the following Game Fours. The Raptors got pulvarized down the stretch, the Wizards lost to the "overrated" LeBron James and the Cavs, and the Mavs just rolled over and died.

But at least they all won a game, which is apparently all one must do these days in order to have a massive victory celebration.

Get em out!

All Bark, No Bite

2008-04-28T18:35:00.004-05:00

I wonder ... do the Washington Wizards realize what a joke they are becoming?

They have tried to reinvent themselves on the fly as some sort of perverse cross between the Detroit Bad Boys and Riley's Knicks, but they just come off as a bunch of wannabe school yard bullies.

Today, in response to, well nothing (LeBron James stating the Washington's attempts to injure him weren't working), Brendan Haywood decided to mock the most dominant player in the NBA and instruct James to "Play basketball and leave it alone."

This was helpful for me, because I thought LeBron was playing basketball. You know, the 34 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists (including the game-winner) kind. But I guess real basketball is screaming every time you make one of your five field goals.

The Wizards actually have some likable guys and I was looking forward to watching them compete with Arenas, Butler, and Jamison. Unfortunately, all this team does is talk. They talk between games about how tough they are going to be. They complain to officials about everything from moving picks to the temperature of the team bus. They woof about every three-pointer like they just redefined basketball. It's pathetic.

Nothing bothers me more than guys who try to bring great players down to their own squalor. "Lowest common denominator" players are bad for the game and entirely worthless, as far as I'm concerned.

As Michael Wilbon would say, "Get 'em out!"

Luckily, I don't have to worry too much about it. Thanks to yapping instead of playing, the Wizards are taking care of it for me.

Better To Be Lucky Than Good

2008-04-27T02:44:00.003-05:00

Fortune, thy name is Utah.

[Update: That was weird. The entire post somehow got deleted after I wrote it. I don't have the heart to sketch it all out again, so here are the main ideas:

- Utah won Game Two in Houston when Luis Scola committed an entirely needless foul and negated a Bobby Jackson three, and when Houston missed an inordinate number of layups, and when Kyle Korver shot a jumper off the side of the backboard and managed to get the ball back for an open jumper.

- Utah won Game Four when the wrong official made an assumption call on an inbounds play when Deron Williams got tied up for a jump ball by Tracy McGrady. Then, when Williams missed two free throws, Chuck Hayes and McGrady accidentally fought for the rebound and the ball wound up in the hands of Okur for two free throws.

- I think the Jazz are a really good team and have probably deserved each of their three victories in the series, but that they probably are up 3-1 more because of fortune than skill. In other words, they ARE good, but they've BEEN lucky.

- In conclusion, it is better to be lucky than good.]

Rondo Would Look Pretty Good in Orange Right About Now

2008-04-24T14:44:00.004-05:00

It has been well documented that the miserly Suns have been unloading draft picks for some time now. They've traded picks for players, for cash, and for future picks. They've even given them away just so they don't have to pay guaranteed contracts. If you trace the history of their dealings, you start to realize that they could have had some pretty amazing players. But hindsight is 20/20 and normally, the "What if?" game is a big, fat waste of time. Besides, there is no way to know for sure who Phoenix would have drafted in certain instances.

Except in one case, where the Suns actually drafted Rajon Rondo and then traded him away.

The scenario, if I have this figured out correctly, went like this:

1. Boston held the rights to Cleveland's first-round pick in 2007 because they traded the immortal Jiri Welsh to the Cavs in 2005. (Footnote: Welsch is no longer in the league, so this was obviously a pretty dumb trade by Cleveland.)

2. Phoenix drafted Rondo with the 21st pick in the 2006 Draft, but immediately shipped him and Brian Grant's exoskeleton to Boston for a future first round pick (top-10 protected).

3. Phoenix then spent an insane amount of money - probably the very money they saved in the aforementioned trade - on Marcus Banks, who went from "new addition" to "scourge of Arizona" in about 24 hours. (Then again, he did have that huge summer league performance a couple of years ago, so that's a feather in his cap.)

4. Because Boston's own pick was the fifth overall in the 2007 Draft, that pick was protected. But because they held Cleveland's pick at #24, that selection went to Phoenix.

5. With the #24 pick in the 2007 Draft, the Suns selected Rudy Fernandez ... and then promptly sent him to Portland for a garbage bag of cash. (Okay, maybe it didn't come in a garbage bag, but it was for cash considerations.)

So the net result is that the Suns traded away Rondo - whom they drafted, remember - just so they could unload Brian Grant, sign Marcus Banks, and collect three million bucks. That has to hurt more than a little bit, under any circumstances.

Against the Spurs, after the first two games of the opening round, it has to hurt a ton. That's because Rondo is exactly what Phoenix needs right now.

In fact, if you could scour the roster of every single NBA team, I'm not sure you could find a guy that would be a better fit for the Suns than Rajon Rondo. Well, sure, you could say LeBron James or Kobe Bryant or even a player like Tayshaun Prince. But none of those options are realistic. Rondo is beyond realistic ... they actually had the rights to him!

And man would he be perfect right now. For the last four years, all we've heard is how the Suns need a backup for Nash. Banks never worked out (understatement of the year). Barbosa is neither a pure point nor is he any good against the Spurs. D.J. Strawberry (who I think they should give some time to) is too green. Rondo is none of those things. He's really, really good. (And, ahem, somebody saw this coming.)

Not only that, but he would give them a realistic chance of slowing down San Antonio's relentless attack from the perimeter. Pop and Company have turned Parker and Ginobili loose and the Suns seem helpless. Parker is putting Nash on skates (for all the talk of Nash's defensive liabilities, this is one of the few times we've seen it fully exploited - Devin Harris of Dallas also had his way during certain games of the 2006 Playoffs) and Ginobili is making Raja Bell look like his feet have been dipped in concrete.

Now, nothing much can be done about Manu. But then again, he's a great player. He's going to get his 25 in virtually every playoff game. And Duncan's going to do his damage. The key for Phoenix is to turn this battle into a game of 2-on-2, Amare and Nash versus Duncan and Ginobili. The Suns simply don't have a third big gun in this series and so the best way to compensate for that fact is to eliminate the Spurs' third gun, Tony Parker.

Except they can't. In fact, they have no prayer of doing so unless they can get those witchdoctors on the Phoenix bench to perform some black magic on Grant Hill's groin.

But with Rondo, all that would change. The Boston point guard with the insanely long fingers is becoming a defensive wizard. Few people have noticed, because KG gets all of Boston's credit on D (and deservedly so), but the man is a holy terror on opposing point guards. He has the quickest hands this side of Chris Paul, great lateral movement, good size and surprising strength, and amazing instincts (as detailed by JoJo White during last night's TNT broadcast). He's currently making Mike Bibby look like a joke in the series with Atlanta and he was recently named the best defensive point guard in the league by John Hollinger of ESPN. (Okay, so somebody noticed.)

Rondo seems like he would be the perfect foil to Parker. He could get under Mr. Longoria's skin with feisty play, he could match his speed, and, most of all, he could slow the Frenchman's endless, unimpeded forays to the basket.

Obviously, even if the Suns had Rondo, they would have to get creative with their lineup, because he wouldn't replace Nash at the point. But there's no reason they couldn't give Rondo Barbosa's minutes and have him on the court 30-35 minutes a night. And in crunch time, they could go Shaq-on-Duncan, Amare-on-Thomas, Bell-on-Ginobili (with more help focused here, instead of helping Nash), Nash-on-Finley, and Rondo-on-Parker. Now that's a lineup that can get the job done.

Sadly, it never came to pass, because the NBA has a little thing called the Luxury Tax and Phoenix didn't want to pay it. What a shame. I guess we'll just have to admire Rondo in kelly green as he continues to quitely perform brilliantly for the ridiculously good Boston Celtics.

I just hope Danny Ainge will be writing the Suns a thank you note when the season's over.

Ah, 1994

2008-04-24T14:42:00.003-05:00

Before you decide that Jason Kidd and the Mavs are done, I suggest you listen to "People Wanna Know What the Kidd Did". This is rap at its most hilarious.

T-Mac Column

2008-04-23T12:05:00.003-05:00

If you are interested in reading my weepy, sympathetic ode to Tracy McGrady, be sure to check out my latest offering over at HoopsAddict.

Fire up the Ben Harper and cut T-Mac some slack!

The Playoffs Are Here

2008-04-18T01:07:00.005-05:00

Every year, for as long as I've been banging out columns and blogs on the Interwebs, I've posted my NBA playoff picks. Prognostication, it turns out, has not been my strong suit. Let's run down the messy list:

2002 - Kings over Pacers (Actual: Lakers over Nets)
2003 - Mavericks over 76ers (Actual: Spurs over Nets)
2004 - Kings over Pacers (Actual: Pistons over Lakers)
2005 - Heat over Suns (Actual: Spurs over Pistons)
2006 - Pistons over Mavs (Actual: Heat over Mavs)
2007 - Rockets over Cavs (Actual: Spurs over Cavs)

If you are keeping track, that makes me 0-6 since I started writing these things down. Even worse, I've only correctly picked two of the 12 teams that have even reached the Finals, let alone won it. At least the Mavs and Cavs were in the last two years - maybe I'm warming up.

Normally, this kind of track record would make me think twice before posting any future picks. However, this is not a normal situation. You see, I am in possession of a complex secret formula that helped me win my NCAA office pools and identify Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, Davidson, and UCLA as the best teams in the tournament (in that order). Try arguing with those results.

So this year I am going with my formula and the list it spits out. Of course, because I like to indulge the worst elements of my nature, I am still going to add some "gut feeling" to the write-up part of things. In effect, I am going to argue for and against my own system.

Here is my Power 16, in reverse order:

16. Cleveland. The Cavs project as the worst team in the field, although Washington and Atlanta certainly give them a run for their money. I expect this fact to result in a "thrilling" series with the Wizards.

I Concur - Cleveland is a putrid team. The midseason trade to bring Ben Wallace's exoskeleton to town is the new Mistake by the Lake. A few key guys haven't been able to stay healthy. No one other than LeBron is all that good at basketball. The bottom line is that this is not the same team that went to the Finals a year ago, nor is this the same horrible Eastern Conference. Lost in the excitement of the Wild West is that the Leastern Conference has turned into the Big Three with a trio of very formidable squads sitting atop total squalor.

I Disagree - Any team with LeBron has to be better than this, right?

15. Washington. The Wizards are probably better than the matrix projects because they are now healthier than they've been all year. It's okay though, because the matrix still has them getting past Cleveland and then losing to Boston, so I wouldn't change anything.

I Concur - They are still trying to work in Gilbert off the bench, so there could be some alpha male issues down the stretch. Not to intentionally agree with Charles Barkley, but they've also been running their mouths a bit too much. So despite their talent, the availability of three elite scorers, and an improved defense, the sum might not be as good as the individual parts.

I Disagree - This is probably more like the fourth best team in the East, not the seventh. But who's counting?

14. Atlanta. The Hawks better prepare for another round of "they should reseed the whole league for the playoffs!" stories.

I Concur - I think a coaching change is in order in The A, because they have too many pieces to settle for below-.500 results.

I Disagree - If anything, I don't agree that they are better than anyone in the playoffs.

13. Philadelphia. A few weeks ago the Sixers were soaring and looked like they might get the fifth seed and a date with Cleveland. Unfortunately, they did not.

I Concur - They are better than these other weak sisters, but still light years behind Detroit, their first round opponent. They can be dangerous in bursts because of their attacking defense, but even Flip Saunders can adjust for that in a seven-game series.

I Disagree - I think Philly is better than Toronto but no one else that is ahead of them. (Note: not only am I quite happy with the results so far, but the matrix spit out the bottom five teams in the East as the bottom five teams in the entire playoffs. No surprise there - all the power is concentrated at the top.)

12. Toronto. The Raptors are a mess. They are starting the wrong point guard, they don't have a small forward, their coach is kind of brainless, and Rasho Nesterovic is suddenly their second best scoring option.

I Concur - They have some playoff experience from a year ago, Chris Bosh is terrific, and Jose Calderon can take over in "winning time," but Toronto is an otherwise rudderless ship. As I mentioned in a previous post, I think this is going to be a brief T.J. Ford Showcase and little else.

I Disagree - They should probably be behind the Sixers. And the Wizards.

11. San Antonio. Pretty low, huh?

I Concur - The Spurs are older, they have dealt with more injuries, and the West is loaded with far more challengers than a year ago. They seem to be at least one player away from a title and they got a tough draw in the first round by landing Phoenix, who is both a superior team and currently constructed just for this occasion.

I Disagree - San Antonio is both the ultimate Vampire Team and the squad most likely to get the benefit of the whistles (due to my "systematic desensitization" theory that I will likely be posting in the coming days, either here or over at HoopsAddict). They feature great ball movement. They are getting Brent Barry back in the nick of time. Plus, did I mention they are like vampires?

10. Houston. Houston is likely going to get the pity vote this year because they lost Yao. They should get the pity vote because they drew Utah in the first round.

I Concur - Houston probably isn't actually better than San Antonio, but otherwise, this seems like the right spot for them. They can play some ridiculous defense and spread the floor, but don't have the lowpost scoring or deep shooting to beat the elite teams in the West. And the Rafer Alston injury just kills them.

I Disagree - This one looks about right as well. Nothing about Houston screams "No, no, they are totally going to beat Utah!"

9. Denver. The Nuggets barely got in, but project as a dangerous playoff team. Had they avoided one of two bad losses late (to Seattle and to Sacramento), they could have snagged the seventh seed and had a very realistic shot of knocking off both New Orleans and the Phoenix/San Antonio winner.

I Concur - Denver creates enough havoc on the defensive end and plays fast enough that they are actually effective at forcing turnovers and misses. Their poor defense is a bit of a myth. Plus, Allen Iverson is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career, Marcus Camby is actually playing better defense this year than last season (when he won the defensive player of the year award), Kenyon Martin and Eduardo Najera are providing solid minutes at the 4, and J.R. Smith is becoming a force of nature from deep off the bench. This team is better than the squad that played the Spurs oh-so-close last year in the first round.

I Disagree - Carmelo Anthony lacks focus now more than ever (and not just the DUI, but also his increasing dependence on bad jumpers), George Karl is half checked out, and Anthony Carter still plays big minutes at point guard. Read that last part again.

8. New Orleans. A month ago I was ready to take the Hornets to the Finals. The matrix advises a different course of action.

I Concur - The lack of playoff experience is overrated. The "weak bench" is overstated (especially now that they have Bonzi Wells and can get quality minutes from Julian Wright). The home crowd disadvantage is patently untrue. Plus, they have the rightful MVP and most unstoppable point guard in the game in Chris Paul and one of the more reliable post scorers in David West.

I Disagree - The Hornets have some issues. Tyson Chandler has really blossomed but if he gets in foul trouble, I don't see how New Orleans can win that particular game. This is because Hilton Armstrong might be the worst rotation player in the postseason. He's truly terrible. Plus, they are over reliant on the pick-and-roll, making them much easier to gameplan for in a long series. I could see New Orleans jumping out 2-0 on Dallas and looking fantastic in the process and then losing four of five.

7. Dallas. They will be in a dogfight with New Orleans and they have a ton of baggage hanging around their necks. Avery might be coaching for his job. Jason Kidd is trying to fend off the Ghost of Devin Harris Future and figure out what in the hell happened to that glowing rep he was strutting around with for Team USA last summer. Dirk is hell bent on redemption (not a bad thing).

I Concur - Dallas is a real snake in the grass. Could they be the best seventh seed of all time? They are adequate defensively and have a great weapon to throw at David West in Brandon Bass. They are hungry. They have Dirk. And, most of all, their actual strength is far greater than their perceived strength thanks to a flurry of close and/or fluke losses suffered against good teams right after the Kidd trade.

I Disagree - They are going to miss Diop in the paint. They have no one to guard Paul and will have to resort to defense-stretching gimmicks to slow him down. Avery gets to cute for his own good when left to gameplan for a seven-game series. They have more pressure to win than any team other than Phoenix.

6. Phoenix. The Suns went from a mirage-like best in the west to talk of the town to dead in the water to suddenly potent, all in the span of like two months. Wild year in the Valley of the Sun.

I Concur - Phoenix certainly seems good enough to compete for a title and to warrant this spot. They have one of the three best scoring weapons in the game in Amare Stoudemire, leadership from Shaq and Nash, weapons off the bench, and underrated defensive flexibility thanks to Bell's toughness and Grant Hill's smarts.

I Disagree - The Suns just can't get a call or a fair shake when they need it most. See: Spurs, San Antonio and Stern, David. Why should things change now?

5. Detroit. The Pistons are once again rolling into the playoffs with a healthy starting unit and a solid bench that Flip Saunders may or may not choose to acknowledge.

I Concur - Detroit is tested, rested, and ready. No one wants to see this team right now.

I Disagree - I actually thought they would land higher and my gut is telling me that Orlando has no chance of beating them. That said, there are reasons to doubt the Pistons. They still haven't shown they can elevate in the postseason under Flip. The bench is untested (and, as mentioned above, may very well wind up largely unused). Rip doesn't look like Rip. McDyess is going to get eaten alive by Dwight Howard. So maybe they aren't a mortal lock to reach their sixth straight Eastern Conference Finals.

4. Los Angeles. The Lakers are loaded now, loaded for the future, in possession of one of the top five players in the game (and a guy made even better by the fact that 95% of the league's players are scared of him), and coached by possibly the greatest coaching mind in NBA history. Safe to say they are going to be a "tough out" for a few years. That said, they suffered a huge blow when the Jazz tanked at San Antonio Wednesday night, because now they have to play the second-best team in the entire NBA in the Western Conference semis.

I Concur - L.A. has a deep bench, a skilled low post scorer in Gasol, the world's greatest fouler (Derek Fisher) to put on Allen Iverson and other top guards, and, of course, Kobe Bryant.

I Disagree - Their interior defense is soft and their shot selection is putrid. If you ask me, these are fatal flaws unless suddenly and dramatically rectified.

3. Orlando. Never saw this one coming.

I Concur - It is hard to concur with them being the third best team in the entire league and/or ranking ahead of Detroit. That said, they have a built-in advantage on the boards because of Dwight Howard. They suddenly have a closer in Hedo Turkoglu. They can spread the floor and drain threes, which is almost an NCAA tourney-like equalizer. And they have a very competent coach. Oh, and one other thing. They've don't get tripped up by the Barbosa Factor. The Barbosa Factor refers to last year's playoffs, when the Phoenix Suns suffered mightily from the fact that Leandro Barbosa (and Boris Diaw) had never played substantial minutes against the Spurs in a playoff series. The Suns missed San Antonio in 2006 and Barbosa barely played in 2005, so last year's clash was his first. It showed. The NBA, perhaps more than any other professional sport, has a "trial by fire" quality to its playoff system. And while the general concept of "playoff experience" is overrated, there is nothing overrated about going up against the biggest, baddest bully on the block and learning from the experience. The Magic faced Detroit (the bully on their side of the bracket and, really, the biggest bully in the East) last year and actually played them pretty competitively in the first round of the playoffs. Plus, the immortal Keyon Dooling had a chance to get Chauncey Billups and the rest of the Pistons out of his system back in 2005, when he pretty much single-handedly lost the Eastern Conference Finals for the Miami Heat. Now, Dooling is (shockingly) Orlando's best backcourt defender and he should be up to the challenge of defending Billups. Crazy world.

I Disagree - Their point guard play is terrible, Howard doesn't always assert himself, and they are way too reliant on the long ball.

2. Utah. The secret is sort of out already, but Utah looms large in the West.

I Concur - They have an awesome inside-outside combo with Boozer and Williams. Okur is rounding into shape at the right time. Brewer is sneaky good. Korver spreads the floor and hits killer free throws. They have some great role players. And their home court advantage (both the crowd and the officiating) is enormous. In fact, while much has been made of Utah's home/road splits in a negative light, I don't think enough has been made of the positive implications that has for their chances. Think about it. They were 37-4 at home, which is a winning percentage of over 90%. On the road they were 17-24, for a winning percentage of just over 41%. Not to state the obvious, but 90 is a lot closer to 100 than 41 is to zero. In other words, isn't it far more likely that Utah will win all of its home games in a given series than it is that they will lose all of their road games? Which scenario would you rather bank on?

- A team with a 41% chance of winning road games going 0-4 on the road
- A team with a 90% chance of winning home games going 2-1 at home
- A team with a 90% chance of winning home games going 3-0 at home and with a 41% chance of winning road games going at least 1-3 on the road

Me, I'm taking the third option because it hews closest to the established percentages. Going 100% at home (+10%) and 25% or 50% on the road (-16%/+9%) seems more in keeping than going 67% at home (-23%) or 0% on th road (-41%). Sorry to throw all those numbers at you, but sometimes you have to swap in math for common sense.

I Disagree - Utah isn't all that good defensively and they have a walking landmine in Kirilenko and his fragile ego. But those are the only real chinks in the armor.

1. Boston. They have been the best team all season, so this comes as no surprise.

I Concur - They have the best leader in the game, the best defense, the best assistant coach, veteran players, and a really solid bench. They have home court advantage throughout the playoffs.

I Disagree - They could have problems with the Barbosa Factor if they play Detroit and they have stars with some mental hurdles to clear. Those psychological elements, coupled with Rondo's youth (and Cassell's age), give me pause. But not enough pause to disagree with my baby.

So there you have it. The interesting thing about this list is that the playoff pairings produce some really close matchups according to this ranking system. Cleveland and Washington square off in a battle of the bottom. New Orleans and Dallas are almost too close to call. Detroit-Orlando and Utah-Los Angeles loom as massive second round collisions. Using the disparity in the rankings (and in the secret, underlying data) to aid in predicting how close each series will be, here are my projected results:

Western Conference
First Round
(1)[4] Los Angeles over (8)[9] Denver in 6
(4)[2] Utah over (5)[10] Houston in 5
(7)[7] Dallas over (2)[8] New Orleans in 7
(6)[6] Phoenix over (3)[11] San Antonio in 5
Semis
(4)[2] Utah over (1)[4] Los Angeles in 6
(6)[6] Phoenix over (7)[7] Dallas in 7
Conference Finals
(4)[2] Utah over (6)[6] Phoenix in 6

Eastern Conference
First Round
(1)[1] Boston over (8)[14] Atlanta in 4
(5)[15] Washington over (4)[16] Cleveland in 7
(2)[5] Detroit over (7)[13] Philadelphia in 5
(3)[3] Orlando over (6)[12] Toronto in 5
Semis
(1)[1] Boston over (5)[15] Washington in 4
(3)[3] Orlando over (2)[5] Detroit in 7
Conference Finals
(1)[1] Boston over (3)[3] Orlando in 7

NBA Finals
(1)[1] Boston over (4)[2] Utah in 7

Oh Yeah

2008-04-17T23:20:00.003-05:00

I'm preparing a complex matrix by which I will make my NBA playoff picks (better than just watching clips of T-Mac's 13 points in 38 seconds against San Antonio and then picking the Rockets, which I did last year), but in the meantime, I wanted to point everyone to my recent Hoops Addict column on Chris Paul's MVP candidacy.

Enjoy the statistical excess.

(And speaking of stats, check out this really interesting and well-done column by Kevin Broom over at RealGM.)

The Hornets Must Really Want to Play Denver

2008-04-16T20:00:00.002-05:00

As with so many of the playoff seeds in the Western Conference, the 7th spot is going down to the wire. If the Mavs win or the Nuggets lose tonight, Dallas is 7th and Denver is 8th. However, if Dallas loses and the Nuggets win, then they flip-flop.

Dallas is hosting New Orleans tonight, who has a chance to rest its starters with the #2 seed locked up. Except that it seems like the Hornets really want to play Denver, because they are playing the big guns big minutes. It is currently the end of the third quarter and Paul has played 27 minutes (with 20 and 9) and West and Peja over 30 each. Granted, the Mavs are still winning by five, but it sure seems like New Orleans has a vested interest in pulling this one out.

Is this a "careful what you wish for" situation?

The Toronto Showroom

2008-04-13T13:36:00.003-05:00

I'll be completely honest - I haven't been able to figure out why the Raptors are starting T.J. Ford over Jose Calderon at point guard. Calderon is the more efficient and effective player and the Raps have been better with him at the controls. In fact, their winning percentage seems to be directly influenced by how many minutes he plays.

So why is Ford logging such heavy minutes?

A) I'm failing to comprehend something that Ford does for this team that Calderon does not.

B) Sam Mitchell has rocks for brains.

C) Toronto is trying to shop him.

Now, A and B are entirely plausible. I've failed to comprehend many things and Sam Mitchell has proven that he has rocks for brains (see: the 2007 playoffs). However, I think C is the likely answer.

Toronto has over $24 million committed to Ford for the next three years, yet promises to match any offer made to Calderon, who is a restricted free agent this summer. It is hard to see how a point guard platoon that will likely be worth close to $16 million per year is good for this franchise, so that means one of them has to go.

As recently as a month ago, Calderon was the only Toronto point guard with any trade value whatsoever and he had a ton of it. But now, with Ford back out there showing off his lightening speed, we've seen the return of some of his trade value. This is a great thing for Toronto.

If the Raptors can turn Ford into a rebounding big man or superior wing player and open up the financial room to sign Calderon, they will make themselves better at two positions in one move.

And since the East looks to be a two (maybe three, if you believe in Orlando) horse race, perhaps the Raptors see more valuable in turning their playoff appearance into a T.J. Ford Showcase than in actually trying to win. I can't say that I blame them.

Dodging a Bullet

2008-04-11T23:56:00.002-05:00

The Hornets went into Staples tonight and played terrible basketball. They got in foul trouble early, fell behind by 30 points, and suffered some tough whistles (multiple "on the line" calls that went against them) in the fourth quarter ... and almost won the game.

The Lakers are probably happy to get the 107-104 win and stay in the mix for the top overall seed, but man, they can't feel at all good about the second half of that game. How do you let a 30 point lead get whittled all the way to four?

The answer is: poor defense (they reach more than any team I've seen this year) and horrific shot selection. The defense thing was a slight aberration as L.A. typically plays decent defense (so long as Fisher and Farmar are allowed to push and hack on the perimeter), but their shot selection is shaping up to be a fatal flaw in the playoffs. They simply have to be more patient and demand better looks. When you can get Kobe on the block or the mid-post and Gasol on the block, why would you ever settle for Fisher or Vujacic taking a contested three? It's insanity.

So to be honest, I came away more convinced about the Hornets' postseason chances than the Lakers. L.A. is relying on the return of Andrew Bynum to shore up their interior D, but that shot selection issue isn't going away. Meanwhile, the Hornets showed that they could come out sleepwalking on the road and still play it down to the wire. New Orleans also has a fatal flaw and his name is Hilton Armstrong. If Tyson Chandler gets in foul trouble, they have problems, because Armstrong is shaping up to be the worst rotation player in the entire postseason. He's the 2008 Keyon Dooling. (He's even surpassed the real Dooling).

As for the big MVP showdown, this game didn't move the dial for me at all. It would be a tremendous shame if voters reduced things down to this contest, but I'm not all that worried about it, because, as I mentioned in my previous post, I suspect that most voters decided a month ago anyway. But the truth is that both MVP frontrunners played well as Bryant nearly posted a triple double (29-10-8) while Paul struggled from the field but posted massive numbers (15-17-6 with 4 steals). Both guys delivered, so there's nothing much to glean from this one. (Translation: Paul is still my choice and it will likely remain that way unless he punches a teammate in the face next week.)

The Warrior Tops The Warriors

2008-04-11T01:20:00.003-05:00

Tonight's game is why I love Allen Iverson.

In a must-win game, on the road, against an equally desperate team, Iverson rose to the ocassion and displayed his usual fearlessness and tenacity in leading Denver to a huge victory over Golden State.

It didn't matter that Marcus Camby looked like he was playing with boths hands tied behind his back or that Anthony Carter was still the starting point guard (I remain confused why Denver's inconsistency is a mystery to people - their starting point guard is Anthony Carter!) or that the Warriors raced out to an early 17-point lead. It didn't even matter that partner in crime Carmelo Anthony battled foul trouble for most of the contest.

Tonight was just one of those AI nights where he makes twisting drives, finds teammates with impossible passes, causes havoc on defense, wills himself to the free throw line, and generally just carries his team to victory.

For the evening he scored 33 points while dishing out 9 assists. He shot over 50% from the floor. He committed just two turnovers despite the frenetic pace. He had three huge steals - each time on improbable plays in the passing lanes. Oh, and he logged all 48 minutes, never once resting or relaxing or doing anything short of providing maximum effort.

The NBA isn't built for a guy like Iverson to win titles the way it is for post players like Shaq and Duncan or big guards like Jordan or LeBron or Wade or even Brandon Roy. And Iverson has no doubt been surpassed by Chris Paul in the "6'0" and Under Derby." But try finding someone who could have done what he did tonight.

This one's going in my big book of Iverson memories, right there with the 55 he threw up against the Hornets in the 2003 playoffs, Game One of the 2001 Finals, and so many other classic AI performances. What a beast.

Who Will Lead the Parade ...

2008-04-10T01:08:00.002-05:00

... the day that Bruce Bowen retires? How about: everyone.

It is hard to imagine that any NBA player is more universally hated than the Spurs' hatchet man.

Tonight he was doing all his normal Bruce Bowen things - raising his hands in disbelief with every foul, throwing cheap shots, and so on. As things went badly for San Antonio, Bowen behaved badly. Sound familiar?

Here is my question: why hasn't anyone ever punched him in the face?

Now, I'm not one to encourage violence in sports, but I just find it hard to believe that no one's ever given this guy the Tyler Durden treatment. All the knees to the groin, the punches to the ribs, the elbows, the attempts to trip players while dunking ... no one has just decided "enough is enough"? I've seen dudes get laid out for less in pickup games.

In the meantime, we can all look forward to the day he retires.

MVP: When Do Voters Stop Paying Attention?

2008-04-09T20:04:00.002-05:00

To read most columns these days, you would think that the MVP race is coming down to the wire - that every game counts and that the jockeying for positioning in the standings could ultimately determine who wins.

I believe this is untrue.

I don't know for sure whether Kobe Bryant or Chris Paul will win the MVP, but I have my opinion (surprise) on who should. I feel that Paul has busted open a close race and should win going away. He's this season's best player, has his team poised to win the most competitive conference in basketball history, has saved professional hoops in New Orleans, and has set a plethora of new statistical standards. I'm struggling to think of any other criteria one could use in determining the award.

That said, I won't be surprised if Bryant wins. Actually, I should clarify. There are many people who wouldn't be surprised, including those who actually feel he deserves it this season (a dwindling number, it seems) and those that think he is going to get some kind of Academy Awards-style makeup vote for 2006.

Even if I didn't subscribe to the makeup vote theory, and even if I didn't feel that he deserved it this year (he doesn't, but nor would it be some sort of grave injustice), I still wouldn't be surprised/

Why?

Because a month ago, he was out in front of this race. And a month ago is when people started making up their minds on this thing.

Believe it. I know it sucks to think that voters would make such decisions with such a huge portion of the season remaining, but that seems to be the way these folks roll.

Consider the last several MVP winners:

2005 - Steve Nash. Nash had a great year leading the Suns to the best record in the league, but people made up their minds WAY too early. He averaged just 11.8 points per game on .439 shooting in his final 10 games and had his highest turnover month of the season in April. No one seemed to notice. At all.

2006 - Nash. The same thing happened in 2006. This was the season that Kobe averaged a billion points a game (and made a case for MVP despite playing for a .500 team) and LeBron came into his own, but I was convinced that Nash really was the MVP until he suffered an April swoon once again. He averaged just 13.4 points per game and, to me, lost ground to the other candidates. Needless to say, it barely registered with the voters.

2007 - Dirk Nowitzki. This was amazing to watch. Because the voters had tabbed Nash over Kobe/LeBron in 2006, they didn't want to give it to Nash yet again in 2007, when he actually deserved it more. So they settled on Dirk under the old "best player on the best team" rule and called it a day. Except that they didn't actually watch any hoops for the last month of the season. For the year, Dirk went for 24.6 and 8.9 per game and shot .416 from three. In April, he went for 20.6 and 5.7 while shooting .273 from downtown.

Now, I realize that everyone is entitled to a down month from time to time and that in some of these cases, teams were cruising home with the top seed sewn up. But this is the award for the most valuable player in the entire league for that season. How can you discount an entire month? How can you do anything but pay attention and analyze and debate until the last possible moment?

That's why I've got Chris Paul on my imaginary ballot but also why I won't be "submitting" it until the end of the season. And also why I won't be the least bit surprised if Kobe pulls out a "surprise" win.

Because if you ask me, everybody stopped paying attention sometime back in early March.

The World's Biggest Chalmers Fan

2008-04-09T11:59:00.005-05:00

There has been something bothering me about Kansas' Mario Chalmers all year long ... the way people perceive his ability at the next level.

Everything I've read suggests that while he's a clutch player with a great jumper, amazingly quick hands, and a terrific personality, he's a "tweener" who doesn't project as an NBA lead guard.

Boy, people must have short memories.

From 1999 to 2001, Gilbert Arenas was the shooting guard for a loaded Arizona team (featuring the likes of Jason Gardiner, Richard Jefferson, Michael Wright, and Loren Woods). He often got lost in the shuffle for the Wildcats, content to jack up threes and finish off fast breaks while deferring to teammates on offense and hounding opposing guards on defense. Arenas averaged 15.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and a mere 2.2 assists per game over that stretch, while also shooting more threes than free throws and racking up an impressive 136 steals in 70 career games.

The consensus among NBA "experts"? Arenas couldn't play the lead guard, he didn't project, he was a tweener, blah, blah, blah.

Nevermind that the guy had a sweet stroke, a charming and likeable personality, tremendous athletic gifts, and the quickest hands in the country, the robotic NBA just couldn't imagine how he might possible succeed.

Of course, thousands of points and millions of dollars later, Agent Zero (in honor of the number of teams that had the guts to take him in the first round of the 2001 draft) has made everyone look stupid.

A few years ago all the same concerns surrounded Monta Ellis. Whoops again. At least in that case, pundits and GM's had the excuse of dealing with an unkown commodity coming straight out of high school.

What excuse will people come up with Chalmers winds up thriving in the NBA? The league is becoming increasingly dependant on players who combine pure speed with controlled skills and regardless of size or natural position, Chalmers has that package. And, as I've mentioned ad nauseum, he also seems like a great kid with leadership abilities, he has ice water running through his veins (clearly), and he could wind up being a First Team All Defense type of starting guard.

Yet everyone has him slotted in the second round of the draft.

Chalmers doesn't score quite as much as Arenas did in college (about 12 ppg), but he rebounds just as well, garners more assists, commits fewer turnovers, shoots a higher percentage (.516 from the field and .468 from deep this year, which is fantastic), and snags even more steals (a whopping 283 in 110 career games). And he did all this while playing a simlar "fourth wheel" kind of role for the Jayhawks.

If I'm running an NBA team with title aspirations and my team needs speed at the guard position, I'm taking Chalmers and never thinking twice about it.

There are plently of quality teams meeting this description (projected draft position in parathesis):

Portland (13) - My personal favorite team really needs an infusion of speed and ball pressure in the backcourt. Blake tries hard but can't handle quick guards and Jack doesn't do one single thing that I like. I desperately wanted them to get Devin Harris earlier in the year, but it was not to be. This time around, I'm praying for another lottery miracle that nets them Derrick Rose or Jerryd Bayless, but am really hoping Russell Westbrook manages to drop to their projected #13 spot. If they can't get one of those three guys, give me Chalmers. Seriously. He would be perfect next to Roy, who has the size to guard two's but prefers to handle the ball like a one. Start the refrain, Blazers fans: Chalmers! Chalmers! Chalmers!

Washington (18) - What better place for Chalmers than under Arenas' wing (provided, of course, that Gil returns)? The Wizards could use some speed off the bench and a guy to bring some defense to pair with Nick Young's emerging offense. Now that Antonio Daniels is officially running on fumes and Roger Mason Jr. has proven that he has no interest in any basketball skills other than hoisting threes, Washington seems to have a clear need for another guard who can play 20-25 quality minutes each night.

Denver (20) - You might think that Denver is a bad place for an undersized guard, since Iverson already logs 42 minutes a night doing the same thing, but I would argue that Chalmers skills make it worth it. He can shoot the three and lock people down on the perimeter, which is Problem 1 and Problem 1A with this Nuggets team. Start JR Smith and give Super Mario the minutes that have been going to Carter and you are in good shape.

Orlando (22) - This might be the perfect home for Chalmers. The Magic are a good team is only going to get better, they like to spread the floor around Howard and rain threes, and they desperately need a Better Dooling. Keyon is supposed to be their fast guy/defensive stopper off the bench, but unfortunately, he's terrible. Chalmers, as I clearly believe, is not. Problem solved. (Of course, if the Magic can get a legit shooting guard - like say, Kansas teammate Brandon Rush - to replace Maurice Evans, they should probably do that.)

Utah (24) - This is another match made in heaven. The Jazz may be inclined to lock up a small forward in light of AK47's constant injuries and sulking (and there might be good ones like Tyler Smith or Earl Clark available), but if they want to shore up their biggest problem, they will introduce (here we go again) speed, shooting, and perimeter defense to their backcourt mix. Williams is a beast and Brewer is a terrific big guard, but they need an answer to tbe Monta Ellises and Leandro Barbosas (the good one, not the guy masquerading in a Suns uniform for most of this season) of the world.

San Antonio (27) - Yes, they have Tony Parker. But lets be honest, this group of dinos needs a young buck with some speed in the backcourt. As someone who is, ahem, tired of the Spurs, I really don't want to see Chalmers returning to the site of his Final Four heroics and dropping playoff daggers for the next five years. Forget I mentioned this one.

By the way, while we're here - why isn't anyone talking about the influx of talent that will be going to the NBA from that title game. We had a blue chipper in Derrick Rose, a probable lottery pick in Darrell Arthur, two more first round locks in Brandon Rush and Chris Douglas-Roberts, Chalmers, likely second round picks in Sasha Kaun (born to be a backup center in the NBA) and Joey Dorsey, and even a fringe second rounder in Darnell Jackson. That's 7-8 guys from that game that will likely be in an NBA uniform next year. And that's before you factor in the players that will likely get drafted in future years, such as Sherron Collins, Robert Dozier, and even Cole Aldrich. That is a ton of talent on one college floor.

(Final note - Kansas was good enough to win it all with the roster they had even after losing transfers David Padgett to Louisville and J.R. Giddens to New Mexico. I guess Bill Self can recruit some athletes.)

Connect Four

2008-03-30T23:44:00.003-05:00

Forgive the pun, but I had to take a quick break from writing about the NBA to celebrate a breakthrough for office pools everywhere. You see, I decided to run a fairly simple matrix for this year's picks, since I hadn't seen enough hoops. I threw up my bracket in the comments section of a previous post and have been amazed to see it all come to fruition as if I had that sports almanac from Back to the Future II.

The matrix spit out the following for the best five teams in the country:

1. Kansas
2. Memphis
3. North Carolina
4. Davidson
5. UCLA

I couldn't pick Davidson, because the Wildcats were in Kansas' region, so I had no choice but to put the top seeds through. Now they are all in the Final Four.

But it goes beyond that.

24 out of 32 correct in the first round, including Davidson (over Gonzaga), Western Kentucky (over Drake), and Kansas State (over USC).

14 out of 16 correct in the second round, with misses only on Marquette (against Stanford), and Clemson (they were knocked out by Nova.

7 out of 8 correct in the Elite Eight, with the only miss coming on Louisville (against Tennessee).

And, of course, 4 out of 4 in the Final Four.

Needless to say, it is better than I normally do.

The bad news? I couldn't resist letting my own opinions and emotions get in the way. I felt that UCLA depended too much on luck so I went with Xavier (the #6 overall team). I couldn't quite pull the trigger on Davidson in one of my brackets so I put Wisconsin (#7) through to the Elite Eight. Even though Memphis was a clear favorite in the South, I hedged by bet by tabbing Texas in a few pools.

So instead of having one of the great brackets of our time, I have my usual hit-or-miss affair. Sure, it's enough to have me in the running in a few pools (the ones where I went with Memphis over Texas), but it's not the stuff of legends.

The good news? I've still got my new formula and there's always next year.

Quiet Storm

2008-03-28T11:13:00.002-05:00

Last night was a monster session of hoops, both NBA and collegiate. I had four games locked and loaded on my double tuner, HD DVR, and so when I got home from work, I just went to town. But nothing much happened that stood out as a "big" story. Seriously, check out the slate of games:

- North Carolina walloped Washington State (much to my co-worker Pete's chagrin - keep your head up, Pete). No surprise there, considering the Heels are playing like UNLV circa 1990 right now.

- Xavier topped West Virginia in an overtime thriller. This was a great game and produced B.J. Raymond's epic OT performance and equally epic celebration, but there isn't much for me to talk about on my NBA blog (other than the fact that Xavier's Josh Duncan reminds me A LOT of Carlos Boozer).

- Louisville won easily, but I didn't get to see much of that one.

- UCLA won again despite not playing particularly well, which makes this no different from their previous 12 tournament victories from 2006-2008. (Seriously, is there any team in the history of college basketball as lucky as Ben Howland's bunch? I know that you create your own luck and that their tenacious defense is a large part of that, but that A&M game really took the cake.)

- Denver overcame a 15-point deficit to run Dallas off the floor in a key Western Conference game, which would have been noteworthy except that it is beyond obvious that Dallas should NOT HAVE RUN WITH DENVER, as pointed out in the previous post. How obtuse can a team be?

- Golden State also overcame a significant early deficit to crush Portland, and here, finally, we get some "news we can use."

That's because Matt Barnes just came back from the dead a la Tony Almeda. Barnes has been mired in the slump of all slumps for this entire season as he has struggled to deal with the death of his mother. But last night, against Portland, he looked like the Matt Barnes of old, scoring 8 points, grabbing 8 boards, and hitting a couple of big three pointers.

It wasn't a particularly massive stat line (although not at all bad, for 19 minutes of playing time), but the way he was bouncing around and shooting the ball with confidence suggests he might be back to his old self and back in Nellie's good graces.

All of which is terribly important, because a healthy and effective Barnes is the difference between the Warriors being a fun, overmatched team and a legit threat in the playoffs. He's tall enough to give them an additional post defender while retaining their ability to spread the floor on offense, and he's one of their most instinctive finishers on the fast break. Not only that, but he's one of those glue guys that seems to come up big in the biggest moments. Each of those traits will be paramount in helping G-State duplicate or top last season's success.

Everyone assumes the Warriors' ceiling is "win one series, give another team trouble" because that is what happened last year. But that thinking is flawed. The reason they couldn't win in the second round last year had more to do with playing Utah than it did with any sort of inability to pull off consecutive upsets.

If Barnes is really back, then I think the Warriors are just as dangerous as any other Western Conference contender and that their fate - like every other team - is tied to matchups (and, to their detriment, home court advantage). Heck, I might just pick them to win it all. If they make the playoffs, that is.

The Race for 8th

2008-03-25T16:08:00.000-05:00

This from Jon Barry, in today's "Daily Dime" on ESPN: "If Dallas is out, it's Denver. I wouldn't say this is a sure thing, because as great as the Nuggets are offensively, they are equally bad defensively. Is the offense going to be enough? They've got a big game with Dallas at home Thursday. The loss of Dirk should light a fire under the Nuggets."

Barry is right about one thing - The Nuggets-Mavs game tomorrow is huge. But he's wrong - oh so wrong - about his evaluation of the Nuggets as a team.

In fact, I would go so far as to say that if the Mavericks were to believe Barry's analysis, they will surely lose to Denver. However, if they know better (and they have to, right?), they will likely win.

Confused?

That is because the majority of NBA types completely misunderstand Denver. In fact, I just had a lengthy email exchange with a buddy about this and, as with Barry's comment above, it came in the context of discussing the Mavericks and whether they could still make the playoffs without Dirk.

Here was one salvo:

"I think Dallas will be okay if they beat Denver on Thursday. Consider that their game of the year. If they lose it, I think they will lose faith in themselves without Dirk and slide to 9th. If they win, I think they could actually find a second wind and then turn to a running game the rest of the way.

It is kind of interesting, because people kill Avery for playing such a slow pace, but I don't think he has a choice most of the time. Dirk is agile for a 7-footer, but he's not fast by any stretch of the imagination. Plus, he has to stop a lot to wipe that mop of hair out of his eyes (it isn't a coincidence that his best playoff performances came with the buzz cut). I am interested to see if Avery keeps pulling back the reigns now that Dirk is out or if he lets this team get out and run. Stackhouse is still a surprisingly good transition player, Terry has always shot better running into a jumper, and we all know that Howard is a monster on the break. And they've got Jason Kidd, who - despite losing 19 steps - is still one of the best at running the fast break in NBA history. Throw in Brandon Bass and even George (he's always been surprisingly good at hitting the corner three off a secondary break) and this team has the personnel to get up and down a little bit. Without Dirk to cater to (his only big value-add on the break is as a trailing shooter, something that has become less valuable every since he decided to stop shooting threes for whatever reason), Dallas should be able to run freely and see what happens.

All of that said, I would NOT run against Denver. The Nuggets - contrary to popular belief - are actually a good defensive team and a woefully inefficient offensive team. They only give up and score a lot of points because they play at a hellacious pace. If you force them to play slow, they will get plenty of stops but usually bog down completely on offense. It is far better to try to beat the Nuggets 88-82 than 118-112. The more possessions they get and the faster they shoot, the easier it is for them to bury their bad shots and turnovers. If Dallas tries to run with Denver, they will probably get annihilated. But if they force-feed Dampier and Bass, run a deliberate offense, and make the Nuggets impatient, I think they will win easily. Detroit can run with the Nuggets and win. So can the Lakers and Warriors and Suns. But the Spurs can't (and they know it - that is why SA and Denver always play games under 100, yet the Spurs used to play over 100 against Phoenix all the time - they are the best at knowing who they can and can't run with). And the Mavs definitely can't. So they shouldn't try."

How I can see that and 90% of the people who will read this post can see that, yet Jon Barry (who I like as an announcer, by the way) can not, is utterly mind-blowing.

That aside, I can't wait to watch the game tomorrow night. It will likely feature a clash of styles between two teams that are trying to avoid missing the playoffs - unthinkable to each of them when this season started. Meanwhile the Warriors host the Blazers immediately afterward in a TNT doubleheader that actually means something. Outstanding.

Battier Better Win This Year

2008-03-18T17:02:00.002-05:00

You might remember that my choice for Defensive Player of the Year last year was Shane Battier of the Houston Rockets. I felt that he was the primary reason that the Rockets were the league's best defensive team and one of the smartest and most versatile defensive players in the league. I could live with Tim Duncan as the choice, but was dismayed to see Marcus Camby (one of the worst pick-and-roll defenders I've seen) get the award for his blocked shot stats and Bruce Bowen take Battier's spot on the All-Defensive team because of his reputation.

This year? I'm thinking things might be different. The Rockets are once again a dominant defensive team and this time, the stars might be aligned for the former Blue Devil will the wrinkled forehead.

For starters, Bowen has lost about 14 steps and has continued to be exposed as a dirty cheap shot artist. Plus, the Spurs as a team have slipped a little defensively, so Duncan isn't really in the mix. Josh Smith blocks shots like a maniac, but he's undisciplined and doesn't have the reputation of many veterans.

That leaves only Camby. And this time, perception might work the other way. The Nuggets are actually a pretty fair defensive team, but because they play at the fastest pace in the league and therefore give up a lot of points, they've come to be known for playing poor defense. So even though Camby might actually be better this year than last year, voters might be reluctant to give it to someone from Denver. Plus, the mere fact that he won the award last year might prompt someone to spread the love.

The other major factor is that Battier finally got the national platform he needed when he hounded Kobe Bryant into 11-for-33 shooting. The "hand in the face" technique has been shown over and over in freeze frame and by now, everyone has seen and marveled at not only the intelligence (why don't more people think of this?) but also the coordination (it can't be easy to come within a few inches of someone's head time after time after time).

The hype machine is fired up now and it could be just what Battier needs to take home some overdue hardware.

Must Win For Denver?

2008-03-18T11:19:00.002-05:00

The Nuggets, fresh of their 168-point performance against the hapless Sonics, are heading to the Motor City to play the Pistons.

Normally, this would be viewed as a difficult road game and another chance to trot out the "what if" scenarios involving Joe Dumars, Carmelo Anthony, and the 2003 NBA Draft.

But this year, the game is taking on added significance due to the fact that Denver is outside of the playoff picture. This, despite boasting one of the most dangerous lineups in the NBA and a sterling 40-26 record. But such is life in the current NBA, where David Stern cares only about overseas expansion and nothing about fairness (Exhibit A: the Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw suspensions in last year's playoffs, Exhibit B: the Seattle Supersonics, Exhibit C: the playoff format).

I will be watching this game very closely to see how the Nuggets respond. Because even more than the result, I want to see how they approach the contest. This is the type of game that the Nuggets from the first half of the season would probably have laid down for - knowing how tough it would be to win in Detroit, they might have just mailed it in and conserved their energy. But they can't do that now. Will they show and prove? Will they maintain their composure. Will they play with the confidence that they can win?

If they do all those things - win or lose - I think it bodes very well for their chances to catch the Warriors and reach the playoffs. If they don't, I think they are done.

They HAVE to bring it tonight.

Paul Fires Latest MVP Salvo

2008-03-18T10:59:00.003-05:00

The most pertinent question at this time of year when it comes to the MVP race is not "how valuable" a player is (imagine that), but rather "have the voters already made up their minds?"

For some reason, almost without fail, the MVP award gets decided right about this time every year. This is when you get the big flurry of columns and arguments and Steven A. Smith sightings and once people start taking positions, well, good luck getting them to change their minds. At the exact time of year when NBA analysts should be expanding their minds in the interest of accuracy, they are instead narrowing their viewpoints in the interest of being right (or loudest).

Makes no sense.

For instance, if the good people who vote on this award have been paying attention for the past week, they would have to move Chris Paul up their ballots.

While Kobe was being tortured by Shane Battier (one of the best defensive efforts I've ever seen) and shooting his team out of a game in Houston and LeBron was taking and missing an ill-advised game-winner, Paul was doing the following:

- Destroying the Spurs (no seriously, DESTROYING them)

- Battling Chauncey Billups and keeping his team in a tough road game ... while playing on one leg

- Going for 37 and 13 on that same bum wheel while leading a stirring and critical fourth quarter comeback over the Bulls.

Right now Paul is the the most unstoppable penetrator in the game. He's the best ball handler. He's the most disruptive perimeter defender. He throws the best alley-oop. He's playing for the #2 team in the brutal West (tied with the Lakers). He's putting up the first 20/11 season in 15 years (he's on pace to be just the sixth player of all time to reach those numbers, joining Isiah, Magic, Big O, Tiny Archibald, and Sacramento mayoral candidate Kevin Johnson). What else is there?

Unlike most fans and media members, I'm not making up my mind until the bitter end. Kobe could lead the Lakers on a big winning streak without Gasol and LeBron could throw up a series of 40-15-15 triple doubles.

But for now, Paul has vaulted into the lead.

My ballot as of today:

1. Chris Paul
2. Kobe Bryant
3. LeBron James

[Update - Since this is an NBA blog, I don't want to crowd the main page with my tourney picks. But I do want to get them on record, especially because I just know I will wind up tinkering in my various pools and screwing it up. So proceed to the comments for my tourney picks.)

Amare for MVP?

2008-03-14T11:15:00.002-05:00

Last night was a big one in the NBA, because it featured "The Suns." As in, the version of the Phoenix Suns that we've come to know and love over the years. Their second half against Golden State was a work of art. They got Barbosa and Amare ahead of the pack, Raja Bell was firing threes, and Nash was dazzling with his patented full-speed, pull-up three in transition. It was a sight to behold. And coming on the heels of their grind-it-out win against San Antonio on Sunday, I can tell you that the West just got even more interesting. Granted, both games were at home, but they beat a "slower" team and a "faster" team in big, nationally televised games. Dare I say the Suns are on their way?

The other thing I was struck by last night was the play of Amare Stoudemire. On one hand, he didn't do anything different from a normal Amare performance. Yet there was something revelatory about the way he played.

The weird thing about Amare is the way little things get held against him. By most accounts he is a bit of a prima donna, yet a few personality quirks wind up getting exacerbated and the perception of Amare becomes one of "Locker Room Monster." He isn't the strongest defensive player in the world, yet to hear some analysts tell it, he's out there shaving points.

The defensive thing is the most puzzling to me. For starters, he's not the only guy in purple and orange that struggles on that end of the floor. Part of that is that the Suns have assembled a team of poor to quite poor (as opposed to "strong to quite strong") defenders and Amare is one of those. But the other part is that they've never wanted to fixate on defense. They didn't want to challenge shots too closely for fear of fouling and stopping the clock. They were willing to save a little energy on D so that they could run even harder on offense. Amare was just doing what he was told, really. And because everyone railed on the Suns for their poor defense and because Amare became the poster child for said poor defense, he now has this ungodly reputation.

But is it even true?

I will grant you that Stoudemire has too major weaknesses on the defensive end of the floor. They are:

1. Staying out of foul trouble.

2. Doing his work "early." This second issue is one of the major causes of the first and the primary reason he's not an effective on-the-ball defender in the lowpost. He's either a tad lazy or a tad, um, not that bright, because he never seems to be in the right position before his guy catches the ball. Every kid who learns how to play post defense the right way (say, at Big Man Camp) knows that denying cutters and working for superior post position is a huge part of defending the paint. Amare's never quite mastered this task, preferring instead to just wait for someone to have the ball and then try to stop them. This is why skilled post players (skilled not only at shooting and dribbling, but also at positioning and using their bodies) like Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol eat him alive.

That said, he's not entirely without merit on the defensive end. He has fantastic timing as a shot blocker and despite following a "don't foul!" mandate, he still manages to swat 2.24 shots per game (6th in the league). He averages nearly as many rebounds as Kevin Garnett (in similar minutes). So he's not just taking up space out there.

Besides, since when does being an average or subpar defensive player submarine a player's entire reputation. Here is just a quick rundown of some of the NBA legends who lacked a little bit on D:

Steve Nash - Two MVP awards
Charles Barkley - MVP, member of original Dream Team
Magic Johnson - Three MVP awards, considered one of the greatest players of all time
Dirk Nowitzki - MVP award

These are just the guys that come to mind without even thinking very hard about it. It seems more than a little unfair to punish Amare for similarly being "offensively inclined."

Anyway. To get back to my initial point, Amare just seemed like he was on another level last night. With the deadly jumper that he's developed (nearly out to three point range), his body control, and explosive ability to finish at the rim, he's probably the most unstoppable frontcourt player in the game today. Seriously, when was the last time you saw somebody effectively guard him one-on-one?

And while I don't actually think Amare deserves the MVP award in a year like this - with LeBron, Paul, and Kobe playing at ridiculous levels - doesn't he deserve to be thrown into the conversation once in a while?

In addition to the visual evidence that tells me Amare is unique and unguardable, there is also ample statistical evidence to suggest that he's truly one of the four best players in the league this year. By almost any measure, he stacks up as one of the elite. He is:

- 3rd in PER (behind James and Paul)
- 2nd in the league according to Yahoo's fantasy stats
- 4th according to ESPN's fantasy player rater (doesn't include turnovers)
- 3rd in points per 48 minutes (6th overall)
- 4th in field goal percentage
- 6th in blocks per game (as mentioned above)
- 1st in efficiency rating per 48 minutes (3rd overall)

I think it's time we let Amare off the hook for past sins and acknowledge just how incredibly good this guy really is.

Now That's How You Respond to Bruce Bowen

2008-03-13T23:31:00.003-05:00

If you've ever read this blog, you know that I think Bruce Bowen is just about the dirtiest basketball player to ever walk the earth. When he kicked Amare Stoudemire - he of the surgically repaired knee - in the Achilles last year on an open dunk, Bowen was dead to me forever. There's no coming back from that kind of evil. I don't care what you had to do to make it to the NBA, you do NOT knowingly put a guy's career and ability to walk in jeopardy.

Last night he was at it again, kicking Chris Paul twice in the chest while Paul was defenseless on the ground. Real nice. Man, that guy is a word-I-don't-want-to-put-in-print.

What I found more interesting than Bowen's cheap shot (because seriously, at this point it is almost expected) is the way the Hornets responded. At the time of the incident they held a 60-53 lead and then after it happened, went absolutely crazy down the stretch, outscoring the Spurs 40-22 the rest of the way. Chris Paul was unstoppable and David West got the better of Tim Duncan in key spots. The Hornets pretty much just bullied them from that point forward.

And you know what they say about bullying bullies. I'm surprised Bowen didn't run home crying.

Suns-Spurs In Retrospect

2008-03-10T14:35:00.004-05:00

If you care about the NBA and had access to a television on Sunday, you likely watched the Suns hold off the Spurs and end a three-game home losing streak. It was an intense, physical contest that felt very much like a playoff game and left Phoenix fans feeling quite pleased. After all, the only thing better than ending a rough stretch is beating the Spurs, right? I mean, it's all about San Antonio!

Of course, that is the problem this year in the West. It's not all about San Antonio. Sure, the Spurs are looking like a favorite. But so are the Lakers. And the Jazz. And, heck, even the Rockets and Hornets. Who isn't a favorite in the West this year?

The Suns problem is no longer beating San Antonio. That won't be an easy task in and of itself, but with Shaq guarding Duncan and these two aging squads going after each other, it seems like the odds are about 50/50 for once. No, the problem for Phoenix is beating everyone else.

The landscape of the Western Conference has changed, folks. A year ago the only true threat to a Suns title was, in fact, the Spurs. This year, all eight playoff teams (and even one non-playoff team) can beat any other team in a series. I honestly believe that. Which means that Phoenix is going to have to fight tooth and nail just to play the Spurs (unless it is the first round).

In my opinion, the biggest problem for Phoenix - brace yourself for this - is team speed. Yes, the team famous for picking up the pace is in danger of being run out of the gym by half the teams in the West.

To better analyze the Suns' postseason chances, lets break down the Western contenders into two groups: the teams that play faster than the Suns and the teams that play slower (based on Phoenix's post-Shaq pace numbers compared to the rest of the league).

Faster
Denver
Golden State
L.A. Lakers
Utah

Slower
Houston
Dallas
New Orleans
San Antonio

Obviously, one of those teams won't make the playoffs (unless that team is the Suns themselves), but it is worthwhile to consider them all. We can start by looking at the teams in the "slower" category. From that group, I see two teams that Phoenix can handle (Dallas and Houston) and two that they might struggle against, but could still come away with a series win. Houston is obviously on fire and the loss of Yao actually makes them faster and more athletic, but I expect them to come back to earth by the postseason and the Suns actually match up pretty well. Dallas is cooked and Dampier would last about 14 minutes before fouling out against Shaq qnd Amare. The Spurs, we already discussed. Only New Orleans seems like a real problem, given the way the Hornets have handled Phoenix this year (4-0). A closer look, however, suggests that a postseason matchup might not follow the existing script. For starters, New Orleans hasn't seen the new-look Suns. I realize that probably isn't scaring anyone, but Shaq should at least slow down David West a little bit. Furthermore, New Orleans won three of those four games by less than five points (including a double overtime thriller). Finally, the Hornets are woefully short on playoff experience in a league famous for its dues-paying history. The biggest problem for Phoenix against N.O. is the Chris Paul Factor. As in: who will guard him and how will Nash keep his turnovers down against him? Call it another 50/50.

To summarize, here are the loose odds I would give Phoenix to beat those four teams:
San Antonio (50/50)
New Orleans (50/50)
Houston (75/25)
Dallas (80/20)

Not bad, all things considered. Which brings us to the far more problematic area: playing against the fast teams. I know it is hard for people to wrap their heads around this, but Phoenix isn't the thoroughbread in this race anymore. Just look at their current starting lineup from last year to this year:

PG - Nash/Nash (slower - due to his body breaking down, which is becoming painfully obvious)
SG - Bell/Bell (probably the same)
SF - James Jones/Grant Hill (slightly faster, which shows how slow James Jones was)
PF - Shawn Marion/Amare Stoudemire (slower - Amare's a gazelle, but not nearly as fast as Marion)
C - Amare/Shaq (much, much slower)

60% of the Suns lineup is slower than last year, while the 20% that has gotten faster is marginal.

This is coming at a time when the rest of the league is getting faster, particularly the teams listed in the "faster" column above. Utah's pace keeps getting quicker as Ronnie Brewer has added speed at the 2 and now teams with Williams, Boozer, an Kirilenko to provide four solid athletes in the starting lineup. The Warriors and Nuggets are blurs, as everyone knows. And the Lakers - who have always given Phoenix trouble - are now playing just as fast, in addition to playing just as well, as the Suns.

The matchups against these four teams don't bode nearly as well. Utah is a ferocious home team and the Suns have no answer for either Williams or Boozer. Remember what those two did to Alston and Yao last year? The Suns are going to have to put Amare on Boozer, which is going to result in fouls galore. The Lakers are clearly going to present a problem. They've played the Suns tough for years and now have the horse up front with Gasol (and that's without even considering Bynum) to cause real problems. I think the Suns can score big on the Lakers, but they won't be able to stop them. And in a shootout, it comes down to pace considerations and possession creation - ironically, the Lakers have out-Phoenixed Phoenix on this front. Denver probably won't make the playoffs, but they are 3-0 against the Suns and look like a mortal lock to beat them in a series. Phoenix has no answer for Melo, no answer for Iverson, and can barely even contain Kenyon Martin. Yikes. [Update: Fire the research department! Denver is 1-1 against Phoenix. I am adjusting the odds accordingly.]

Then there's the Warriors. Even last year they looked like they had passed Phoenix as Baron Davis and Jason Richardson bullied the Suns out of the building on two ocassions. Now GSW has added Version 2.0 of Monta Ellis to the equation and has no one for Shaq to guard.

Here are the odds:
Golden State (25/75)
L.A. (25/75)
Utah (40/60)
Denver (50/50)

Hopefully you are still with me here, because the good stuff is on the way. What we can gather from these two sets of odds is that the Suns might indeed have turned a corner on Sunday and that Shaq is working out ... but only in regard to the teams playing at a slow pace. They are still in big trouble against fast playoff teams from the West.

So what can they do?

Simple: put Barbosa into the starting lineup. This accomplishes a variety of things:

1. It adds speed. Duh. This is the obvious benefit, as Barbosa is Phoenix's fastest player and the one guy on the roster that is likely to have a speed advantage against his counterpart. At this point in his career, that raw speed hasn't translated into defensive prowess, but at the very least he can keep opposing guards busy chasing him around on the other end of the floor. There is real value in forcing a guy like Allen Iverson or Monta Ellis to sprint all over the court paying D. Not only that, but Barbosa gives Phoenix their best possible option to get out on the break and take advantage of Nash's incredible ability to throw long lead passes. Currently, only Amare is a true weapon on this play, as Raja runs to the three-point line (effective, but not quite as good as a layup), Grant Hill is only able to get deep enough for mid-range jumpers, and Shaq is still on the other side of the court.

2. It should help Barbosa break out of his slump. I am aware that my man Leandro is struggling right now, so it probably strikes you as strange that I would highlight him as the key guy on the Phoenix roster. But if recent history is any guide at all, nothing will help the Brazilian Blur get back on track faster than hearing his name introduced by the public address announcer. In seven games as a starter this year, Barbosa has played out of his mind, averaging 25.6 points per game on 55% shooting (including a whopping 28 threes on 50% shooting). If nothing else, putting him in the lineup for the opening tip might prompt a return to form.

3. It keeps Raja Bell rested and out of foul trouble. Many people feel that Barbosa can't start because it takes Phoenix's best defensive player off the floor. I disagree, for a couple of reasons. The first is that Bell is running out of gas. Too many nights spent guarding Kobe and Melo and McGrady are taking its toll. Plus, Bell is getting in early foul trouble because - wait for it - opposing teams also know that he's the best defender and so they attack him to get him off the floor. Waiting eight minutes to bring him in will enable them to avoid this early onslaught, keep Bell rested, and likely allow them to have their best possible defensive unit on the floor in the fourth quarter.

4. It makes it easier to go small. One of the keys to success for Phoenix is going to be their ability to play with a small lineup. Putting Barbosa at the 2, Bell at the 3, and Hill or Diaw at the 4 will help them regain some of the lost speed and allow them to get out and run more (regardless of whether Amare or Shaq is at the 5). Right now though they seem to be locked in to this trend of rotating Nash, Barbosa, and Bell in the backcourt and Hill, Diaw, Amare, and Shaq in the frontcourt. Starting Barbosa and playing him 35-40 minutes a night will force D'Antoni to rediscover the joys of playing Raja Bell at the 3 and going small more often.

Who knows, maybe this just wouldn't work, or maybe they can beat "fast" teams without making any changes. All I know is that I will be watching the nationally televised game against the Warriors this Thursday to see how the Suns fare when the pace picks up.

The Ginobili Condundrum

2008-03-06T12:34:00.003-06:00

When I posted about the MVP race on Tuesday morning, I expected to receive a few emails. It went with the territory that Chris Paul, LeBron James, and Kevin Garnett supporters might want to mix it up a little bit and tell me how wrong I was in naming Kobe as the lead dog. So imagine my surprise when all the emails were from Spurs fans. And they weren't even about Tim Duncan!

No, the good people of San Antonio seem to believe wholeheartedly that Manu Ginobili is the most valuable player in the NBA.

Even at first blush, this is ridiculous. Duncan is still the MVP of the Spurs (he has proved that more than ever during their recent 10-game winning streak), which is pretty damaging to the claim that Ginobili is the MVP of the entire league. That said, there is no doubt in my mind that Ginobili is underrated in most NBA circles (although he sort of deserves this fate for being a gigantic flopper). John Hollinger of ESPN - through both his PER analysis and columns - has probably done the best job of pointing this out. He has Ginobili fourth in the league in PER, behind only LeBron (who is off the charts), Paul (having the best PER season by a point guard in several decades), and Amare (not exactly a defensive stopper). So you could argue that but for James and Paul having historically good seasons, Ginobili might actually top the list of most productive players in the league. Heady stuff.

The problem that my esteemed emailers are running into is one of faulty logic. Here is the thought process: "John Hollinger has proven that Ginobili is one of the very best players in the league. Manu plays for the defending champs and current top seed in the West. Therefore, he must be the most valuable player in the league."

False. This is the type of logic that can cause a student to miss points on the SAT or LSAT or GMAT, or whatever standardized test they are currently taking. This is critical reasoning 101, people!

Even if you adhere to Hollinger's PER stats with 100 percent certainty, there is still a big jump one must take to go from calling someone "best" to "most valuable," because it ignores an important variable - time. PER measures player stats on a per minute basis, which is actually very helpful in determining quality and efficiency among players with different raw numbers (effected by total minutes played). That said, there is obviously a corollary effect between how long a good player is on the court and how his team typically performs.

The problem with taking Hollinger's stats and using them as an argument for Ginobili's MVP candidacy is that it ignores this key variable. I don't blame Manu for playing fewer minutes than other elite players, nor do I necessarily think Popovich is doing something wrong with his rotations. I don't even think there is anything wrong with Hollinger's system. But you don't even see Hollinger contending that Ginobili is as valuable as LeBron, Paul, or Kobe. That's because they are on the court for different amounts of time.

Since we (okay, I) already ushered in the idea of standardized testing earlier in the post, allow me to use that as an example. (Prepare for shameless promotion of my employer.) Veritas Prep is a test preparation and admission consulting company that specializes in the GMAT. When deciding to enter a crowded market, the founders - Chad Troutwine and Markus Moberg - believed that by offering more hours of test prep, from superior instructors, they could offer an entirely new level of service. They were correct, as they have built the fastest-growing GMAT test prep company in the United States.

One of the chief selling points is that the courses are 42 hours in length. This, compared to 20-to-27 hours from most of their chief competitors. Now, it is very hard to prove cause and effect on something like this, but most studies prove that there is at least a corollary effect between the amount of time students spends preparing for a test like the GMAT and how well they will do. If all other things are equal (and I would argue that Veritas also has superior materials and instructors), then it would stand to reason that students would benefit more from the longer course. Again, if everything else was the same, there would be a larger impact purely by spending more time doing it.

If this is true in test prep, than it certainly seems true in professional basketball. Kobe Bryant and Manu Ginobili may have similar "per 40 minute" numbers (as Hollinger recently noted), but only Bryant is actually playing close to 40 minutes per game. The Lakers benefit from those fantastic statistics for over 38 minutes every contest, while the Spurs only reap the rewards of Manu's play for just 31 minutes per game. This isn't an issue? Really?

Put it another way. If a household had two wage earners that both made $100 an hour (pretty good, I know) and one worked 31 hours a week and the other worked 38, which would he the "better", or more skilled, worker? They would be equal, based on how much their performance warranted on an hourly basis. But if you were to ask which was more valuable to the household as an earner, clearly it would be the individual working 38 hours a week. That person is bringing home $700 more dollars per week and over $35,000 more dollars each year. It isn't even close.

This MVP discussion isn't close either. I'm not suggesting that Ginobili isn't great. Or that Kobe Bryant is that much better than he is. But there is no way in hell that Manu is as valuable. And don't even get me started on LeBron James or Chris Paul (both of whom are "better" than Ginobili anyway, based on Hollinger's PER system, disregarding the fact that they play nine and six more minutes every night).

Sorry, emailers.

MVP Recount

2008-03-06T12:21:00.002-06:00

I recently threw up a post about last weekend the magical coincidence that saw the three top MVP candidates all put up amazing performances on national television. At the end, I cast my "ballot" and ranked the candidates as such:

1. Kobe Bryant
2. Chris Paul
3. LeBron James

In what is probably going to become a trend, I am being forced to reconsider on the fly. Last night, while Kobe was idle, James and Paul were going nuts. LeBron, you know all about. The crazy, effortless dunk in warmups, the 40-footer that he drained like a free throw, the seven three-point bombs, the 50-10-8 with four steals (one of three players in the last 20 years to add 10 dimes to 50 points), and the taunting of Spike Lee. It was all pretty incredible stuff. So he's the new #1 on my ballot. Forget historical trends or what place the Cavs are in, this guy is the best player in the league, having just an incredible season. For today at least, he's out in front.

As for Paul, he simply kept tormenting the Hawks, punishing them for not drafting him in 2005. He had 15 and 10 at halftime and finished with 23 points and 18 dimes as he continues to showcase why he's the next Isiah Thomas.

So here's the new ballot, with apologies to Kobe, since he didn't get to play last night:

1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kobe Bryant

(Note: Poor KG had his best game of the season and still can't crack the top three.)

M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P!

2008-03-03T12:18:00.004-06:00

These days, you can't watch an NBA game without hearing the hometown crowd serenade its star player with the familiar M-V-P chant. Brandon Roy goes for 17 in a win over the Sonics? M-V-P! Joe Johnson gets an "and one" to cement a victory over the Bobcats? M-V-P!

Ridiculous doesn't even begin to describe the phenomenon. It's gotten as annoying as student bodies storming the court and Roger Clemens opening his mouth to speak.

That said, this weekend the M-V-P chants were flowing and, for once, they were completely justified.

If you tuned in to the NBA on ESPN this weekend, then you were treated to three amazing home performances from three of the season's top four MVP candidates. By my count, there are four primary candidates for The Most Confusing Award in Sports: Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Chris Paul (in no particular order). Typically about this time of year we start to hear endless shilling for the lead MVP candidate. This year? Crickets. My theory for the silence is that no one has any idea who to anoint as the favorite. It is literally a four-horse race and one that is too close to call.

Which is what made this weekend so spectacular. KG didn't get a national TV platform, but still went for 20 and 16 against the Hawks as Boston pushed its NBA-best record to 46-12. Garnett's infectious intensity was on full display and when he went to the line for his lone free throws he was showered with M-V-P chants. Of course he was.

But this weekend belonged to the other three lead dogs.

It kicked off on Friday night with Chris Paul taking advantage of a rare national TV appearance by putting together a masterful performance against the Jazz. He had 13 and 7 by the end of a incredible first quarter that featured a 25-1 run by the Hornets and finished with 24 points, 16 assists, and 5 steals. Plus, he got to the line for 14 free throws which gave the crowd plenty of chances to vocalize which award they think Paul should win. What made the performance so impressive was the way he went right at Deron Williams just weeks after being crushed by his Utah rival. In fact, that night in Salt Lake City was probably the biggest flaw on his MVP résumé ... until now. Paul's body control, quickness, ballhandling, and anticipation are unrivaled in the NBA and for the time being, he has left no doubt who the best point guard in the NBA is.

LeBron James warmed up for his national TV showcase by working over the T-Wolves to the tune of 30 points, 13 assists, and 8 rebounds on Friday night and then turned it up a notch on Sunday morning. Playing the Bulls in a fairly in a game made more intriguing because of the recent trade between the two teams, LeBron came flying out of the gates with a series of ridiculous shots, scored 23 first half points, and then finished things off with one of the sickest dunks I've ever seen (his head was at least six inches above the rim and he must have thrown that thing down at about 75 mph), followed by a stepback jumper to win it. He once again prove that nobody on the planet can match his combination of strength and speed, that no one should be able to lead the league in scoring and still pass the way he does, and that his fourth quarter woes are a thing of the DISTANT past. Watching LeBron these days doesn't feel like watching a basketball player - it feels like watching a superhero. The Cavs fans must have noticed this as well, because they responded in the best way they know how ... "M-V-P! M-V-P!"

Despite Paul's wizardry on the grand stage and LeBron's incredible stat (and rim) stuffing ways, Kobe Bryant probably had the best weekend in terms of MVP momentum. Despite losing to the Blazers on Friday night, Bryant took full advantage of a big matchup with Dallas on Sunday to go screaming to the front of the pack (not unlike Cole Trickle "dropping the hammer" in Days of Thunder). Bryant did all of his usual Kobe things against the Mavs - hitting jumpers from everywhere (everyone talks about Rip being the best midrange shooter in the league, but my money is on Bryant) and finishing acrobatic plays at the rim. The sheer force of his will was amazing. He scored 22 in the fourth quarter, eight more in overtime, and 52 for the game, while grabbing 11 boards. (Note: Jason Kidd may be solid defending big guards, but only if "big guards" doesn't include Kobe Bryant.) Even more impressive than those numbers was his work at the free throw line. Somehow - maybe because of the injured pinkie - he missed seven of his first 10 free throw attempts (my theory is that he was distracted by all the MVP chants!). It was downright bizarre. But in true Kobe fashion, he turned his steely resolve to sinking free throws, shaking off the 30% start to hit his last 17 free throws. Why isn't anyone talking about this?

All told, there were a lot of MVP chants coming down from the rafters of Staples, Quicken, and the New Orleans Arena this weekend.

Before I let you go, I'll go ahead and give you my vote for MVP now. If the season ended today, I would order the big four as follows:

1. Kobe Bryant. He qualifies under the Oscar-esque lifetime achievement criteria. He's the #2 scorer in the league and the most dangerous end-game finisher since Jordan (although LeBron is closing fast). His team is on top of the West. He's playing with a broken pinky. He's not as good defensively as everyone thinks (Roy abused him repeatedly on Friday, eventually forcing a switch), but is still far superior on that end to 90% of the superstars in the league. What more is he supposed to do? I've never been a huge Kobe Bryant fan and remain convinced that he's one of the most contrived people on planet earth, but no matter how you define this award - most valuable, best player, most talented, best stats - Kobe is in the mix, if not the clear favorite.

2. Chris Paul. He could go up or down depending on whether his team goes up and down. If the Hornets win the West, I'm afraid Mr. Bryant's mantle might have to remain empty. And when it comes to pure value, there might not be anybody who makes a better case than Paul. He's turned David West and Tyson Chandler into All-Star level players, is the most disruptive perimeter defender in the league (I've never seen anybody who can pick pockets like Paul), and on his way to the first 20 points/10 assists per game season in a really long time.

3. LeBron James. LeBron might have actually passed Kobe for the imaginary title of "best player in the league" now that he's playing with ferocious intensity each night, starting to impact games on the defensive end, and leading the NBA in fourth quarter points (20% more than the nearest player - Bryant). Plus, his numbers are insane and his valuable is off the charts. That said, the MVP award almost never goes to teams with middling records. In fact, a look at the entire 50-year history of the MVP Award reveals that the winner has come from the first or second best team in the league a remarkable 90 percent of the time (47 of 52 years). The only exceptions were the following:

1956 - Bob Pettit (his St. Louis Hawks finished third in a four-team conference and sixth in an eight-team NBA in the first year the MVP was awarded)

1975 - Bob McAdoo (the Buffalo Braves were third in the East and third overall)
1976 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Kareem's fourth of six trophies came in his first year with the Lakers, when they finished fourth in the West and ninth overall)

1979 - Moses Malone (his Rockets were third in the West and sixth overall)

1988 - Michael Jordan (the Bulls finished third in the East and seventh overall)

I know LeBron is having an amazing year, but Kobe had an amazing year in 2006 but was crushed in the MVP voting. James himself had an amazing season in 2007 but was thwarted by Dirk Nowitzki. Plus, LeBron is trying to buck historical trends in a year featuring plenty of more traditional candidates (KG plays on the #1 in the NBA, Kobe for the current #2 in the West and #4 overall, and Paul for the #3 in the West and #5 overall). If the Lakers or Hornets win the West, are voters really going to dig down to the #4 or #5 seed in the Least? Come on.

4. Kevin Garnett. I know it isn't his fault that he got injured (which is pretty much as rare as a lunar eclipse - coincidentally, they occurred at the same time), but the fact remains that he missed nine games (Boston went 7-2 in those contests) and his numbers are down. Stats aren't everything, but in a year like this, they put him back a few paces.

The Dawn of the Devin Harris Era

2008-02-29T17:25:00.002-06:00

You had to know it was coming ... yes, it's a post celebrating Devin Harris' triumphant debut as a member of the New Jersey Nets.

Despite not getting the start (and how long will Lawrence Frank stubbornly keep Marcus Williams in as the starter?), Harris turned in a beauty last night. He came off the bench in a tie game and promptly rattled of a 10-1 run to close the quarter and when he left in the second, the Nets were up 15.

He scored 21 points, hit three jumpers from downtown, threw down a massive dunk in traffic, consistently split the double team, got his team playing at a fast pace, and, well, basically did all the things he's always done and received so little credit for. It was impressive enough that the Nets fans started chanting "Dev-in Har-ris!" during the last few minutes of the game. Oh, and New Jersey scored a season-high (by far) 120 points in a victory over Milwaukee.

If you are tired of hearing me rave about Devin Harris, then I have good news and bad. The bad is that I'm not going to stop. The good is that for the remainder of this post, at least, I'm going to expand those raves to his entire team. That's right, folks, I'm about to heap praise on the New Jersey Nets. Buckle your seat belts.

Actually, a better request would be to hear me out. I know the Nets have come to epitomize mediocrity in the past few years and that the mere sight of them popping up on TNT in April is enough to make a grown man cry. But if you want to get out ahead of the next hip NBA bandwagon, you might want to purchase a Dr. J throwback and a Nets hat.

Lets start with the obvious: LeBron is going to be playing in Brooklyn in 2010. Look, there's no stopping it. The Nets are going to BK and Jay-Z is going to get his hands on the best player in basketball. The Cavs are an aging team with a mediocre coach in a city known as "The Mistake by the Lake." I don't care if he's from Ohio, there's no way LBJ is staying.

Beyond that, a James' free agent signing in June of '08 means that Vince Carter, by default, is no longer there (or else they wouldn't have the cap room). So we've got addition by subtraction going as well.

Enter LeBron for Carter, merge him with the current roster, fast forward through the next two years of maturation for the young players and suddenly, you have an Eastern Conference power. Even if they don't acquire a single good rotation player from this point forward (impossible considering all the draft picks, Rod Thorn's solid track record, and the fact that players will be lining up to take a paycut in order to play with LeBron in Brooklyn), they will still have the following nine-man rotation when the 2010 season kicks off:

PG - Devin Harris, 27
SG - Richard Jefferson, 30
SF - LeBron James, 26
PF - Nenad Kristic, 27
C - DeSagana Diop, 28
B - Josh Boone, 26
B - Sean Williams, 24
B - Marcus Williams, 25
B - Mo Ager, 26

You could swap Boone and Williams for Kristic and Diop, depending on how everyone develops, but look at the ages on that roster! The average age of the top nine guys will be 27, which is the average player's prime. But at the same time, every single guy (with the possible exception of Ager) will have at least three years of legit experience. Boone can play, Sean Williams could be a stud, and nobody properly values Diop as a lowpost defender and rebounder. If Kristic can ever get back to 100%, they will have a fantastic interior foursome to go with LeBron, Jefferson, and Harris on the perimeter. And that's before the inevitable upgrades (some of them significant) that will occur with about half of the roster spots.

Mark it down now. The Nets and Blazers are going to be battling in the Finals in June of 2011. And it all started last night with the dawn of the Devin Harris Era.

You've Got to be Kidd-ing Me

2008-02-29T16:55:00.004-06:00

Like that title? The NBA is pun-tastic!

I've been debating whether to post this (especially because my next post is going to be about how awesome Devin Harris is), because it will just lead to people calling me a Jason Kidd hater or other such nonsense. Just because I was, am, and will always be against the Harris-Kidd trade doesn't mean that I hate Jason Kidd. In fact, Kidd has been responsible for bringing me great joy in many instances. Here are just a few:

1. Watching him lead Cal to an upset over Duke in the second round of the 1993 NCAA Tournament (one of my five favorite tourney games of all time).

2. Listening to "People Wanna Know What the Kidd Did" by Kidd himself on B-Ball's Finest, a transcendent album that paired NBA ballers with rappers.

3. Seeing him breath life into Team USA last summer.

So I've got nothing against Kidd. Sure, he has more than his fair share of domestic squabbles and his free throw routine is incredibly annoying, but the good outweighs the bad, I think.

Anyway, disclaimers aside, this post isn't even really about Kidd. Nor is it about Crazy Avery Johnson. Or Harris. It's about Kevin Harlen and Doug Collins the TNT duo that single-handedly ruined last night's telecast of the Spurs and Mavs.

How did they ruin it? Simply by crediting every single good Dallas play to Kidd, even when he wasn't involved. A simple handoff from Kidd to Josh Howard was followed by a sweet, twisting layup by Howard. The call from Harlen: "Jason Kidd does it again!" Dirk gets an iso in the high post and finds a cutter (as he's done thousands of times). The call from Collins: "Jason Kidd is just so infectious. Passing has become contagious on this team." Brandon Bass pump fakes, drives, and throws down on Tim Duncan (by the way, Bass is going to be a handful for Duncan if these times meet in the postseason). The call from Harlen: "Bass with the dunk! Oh my, this team is playing at such a fast pace thanks to Kidd."

I mean, it was ridiculous. Kidd played okay in the contest, dishing out 10 assists and executing a nice steal and layup in the third quarter, but he was about the 7th most impressive player on the floor. Dirk was a beast getting to the foul line, Bass was terrific, Howard looked really good, Manu has his moments, Finley (once again) turned on the Time Machine, and Duncan was fantastic. Why are we getting so excited about Kidd?

I understand this is how the media rolls. They get all worked up whenever there is a trade or a player coming back from injury and they ascribe everything that happens to said player. But this was beyond anything I've ever seen, probably because Kidd's value has always been based, at least in part, on intangibles, which gave them liberty to credit Kidd with everything from a teammate's good pass to the consistency of the butter on the popcorn. They had no constraints.

Anyway, the whole thing made the game unbearable. And if it keeps up, then I'm skipping all Mavs games until the playoffs.

Atlanta Hawks: Going as Far as Josh Smith Can Take Them

2008-02-25T19:56:00.003-06:00

I know it is rather uncool to discuss the back end of the Eastern Conference playoff race, but the bottom line is that if you make the postseason, anything can happen (see: Nuggets over Sonics in 1994 or Warriors over Mavericks last spring). And while the East seems to have a pretty clear hierarchy in place with Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, and (to some extent) Orlando out ahead of the pack, there are a few dangerous teams lurking in the bottom of the bracket. The Wizards could be potent if they ever get Arenas back to pair with their improved defense. The Nets are going to be more dangerous once Devin Harris gets healthy. I even like the Bulls now that they are rolling out a young lineup of Hinrich, Sefalosha, Deng, Thomas, and Noah. As long as they keep Larry Hughes off the floor, they could be a tricky 8th seed. (And believe that the Pistons don't want to see them.)

The team that really intrigues me in that also ran grouping is the Atlanta Hawks. They are playing better defense this year, they pass the ball well for a young team, and they have the speed and athleticism to get up and down the floor. They seem like the kind of squad that could give a wobbly top seed (say, Orlando) trouble in an opening round. And if they do, it will be Josh Smith leading the way.

The Hawks depend a great deal on Joe Johnson's physical playmaking ability and are deeply indebted to Al Horford for shoring up their interior defense, but if this squad is going to make the playoffs and be competitive, it will be because Smith has undergone his usual second half metamorphosis.

Put simply, Smith has crazy splits:

Pre All-Star Break
2004-05 - 8/5/2, 1.8 blocks
2005-06 - 9/6/1, 2.3 blocks
2006-07 - 15/8/3, 2.7 blocks

Post All-Star Break
2004-05 - 12/8/2, 2.2 blocks
2005-06 - 15/8/4, 3.1 blocks
2006-07 - 19/9/4, 3.1 blocks

Put another way, here were the improvements each year, from the first half to the second half:

2004-05 - 4/3/0, 0.4 blocks
2005-06 - 6/2/3, 0.8 blocks
2006-07 - 4/1/1, 0.4 blocks

I know those numbers don't look enormous, but those are significant upgrades. And while the bump in his rookie year makes sense, the other two increases can't be tied to specific career benchmarks. In fact, it is strange to see a good player go up, then down, then up, then down, then back up again. It seems to indicate that he really is a "second half player."

Of course, as soon as I decided to highlight these trends, Smith came out of the break sluggish, posting three straight subpar games. However, on Saturday night he went for 30 and 12 with a pair of blocks and steals. Was it just a particularly good game or the sign of things to come? This leads to another question: were Smith's past improvements based more on truly great second half play or was it simply because he was so inconsistent during the first half of the year?

This season, for the first time ever, Smith has been playing at a high level from opening night. In fact, his first half splits for 2007-08 present an even starker contrast to his old first half splits than do his second half numbers. Compare his first half numbers from this season to any of his prior first half splits:

2004-05 - 8/5/2, 1.8 blocks
2005-06 - 9/6/1, 2.3 blocks
2006-07 - 15/8/3, 2.7 blocks
2007-08 - 18/8/4, 3.2 blocks

Based on the previous three years, Smith could reasonably expect to boost his scoring by over 4 points a game, his rebounding by 2, and his assists by just over 1 per. He'll even block another .5 shots per contest. And if you add those increases to his current numbers, he suddenly looks like this for the second half:

2008 (projected second half) - 22/10/5, 3.7 blocks

Yikes. If he really does hike those numbers up, he becomes an absolute monster. Those are KG-in-his-MVP-year stats with even more blocks.

This is why Josh Smith is one of the true players to watch in the East. If there are real reasons for his previous improvements - increased focus, exceptional stamina that allows him to play at the same level while others wear down, film studies that iron out bad habits, coaching, and so on - then it seems entirely possible that Smith will once again see a sizable uptick in his production. If he does so, and arrives at Garnett production levels, the Hawks would have to be seen as a dangerous playoff team.

If, on the other hand, Smith has just finally rectified first half problems of the past - and is already at his 2007-08 ceiling - than there probably won't be reason to get too worked up about Atlanta (in other words, it will be like every other year).

Stay tuned.

If All Else Fails ...

2008-02-22T16:43:00.002-06:00

Nobody is quite sure how the Shaq trade is going to work out in the Land of the Sun, but one thing is for sure ... the Diesel's presence in Phoenix is making things interesting.

After his debut against the Lakers on Wednesday, nobody could tell for sure whether he's going to be able to keep up (looks a little bleak), whether he can turn Amare Stoudemire into a solid defensive player (looks really bleak), or even whether he can make Phoenix better. But one thing is for sure, Shaq is interesting.

Whether it was diving on the floor for a loose ball or trying to pull the rim down on a dunk, he got our attention. Arriving at work the next morning (Veritas Prep, in Malibu, California - gotta represent!), it didn't matter if you were a former employee of the Detroit Pistons, a guy that only watches the Suns, or even someone who hates the NBA (we have all three), people wanted to talk about Shaq.

The co-owner of our business (as well as a successful film producer), Chad Troutwine, led a rousing discussion on the Suns-Lakers game, one that lasted quite a bit longer than our usual sidebars. And this afternoon, we're probably going to chat a little bit about the upcoming Suns-Celtics game.

So even if this thing goes south, it has people talking. That counts for something.

One Simple Trade Request

2008-02-19T18:16:00.004-06:00

With all of the trades that have happened and the promise of more to come, it probably seems greedy to ask for yet another deal. But that's what I'm doing right now, because there is one remaining trade that would ensure even more excitement in May and June ... Mike Miller and Kyle Lowry to the Cavs.

Chad Ford mentioned this possibility in his column on possible trades today and I admit that it made my heart race a little bit.

I've long been a Mike Miller fan in spite of his poor defense and egregious hair stylings. I think he's an underrated passer and athlete and obviously a fantastic shooter, so he's got value to any team (notably Denver). But he couldn't possibly more better anywhere else than he'd be in Cleveland. Put him on the wing and let him shoot threes all day, courtesy of LeBron. It's genius!

I suspect that Miller would be the focus of such a deal, but to me, the secret weapon for the Cavs is Lowry. He's fast, tough, and tenacious and would be a massive upgrade at the point over Larry Hughes (Boobie would still get his 25-30 mpg as a combo guard) and would in fact allow Hughes to go the wing where he's had more success this year. Check out how the Cavs' lineup would look in a few months:

G - Kyle Lowry
G - Mike Miller
F - LeBron James
F - Drew Gooden
C - Big Z (giving my spell checker a rest)
6th - Larry Hughes
B - Daniel Gibson
B - Anderson Verajon
B - Sasha Pavlovic

Now that's a solid nine-man rotation. Gibson can play with Hughes and Lowry with Miller, which always gives Cleveland an attacking guard on one side of LeBron and a shooter on the other (so long as they ban Hughes from taking jumpers). Which means that the Cavs would be right back in the mix in the East and would add another contender in that depleted conference.

Anything that keeps the East more interesting and keeps LeBron in the playoffs longer counts as a good idea in my book.

Now all we need is for Memphis to do something idiotic ... which is the easy part.

All-Star Thoughts

2008-02-18T18:04:00.002-06:00

Now that the hoopla surrounding All-Star Weekend is subsiding, it feels like a good time to post my thoughts. Why? Because I never let an NBA story die!

Actually, I've just been busy. But here were my favorite things about Saturday and Sunday. (For my thoughts on the Rookie Challenge, see the previous post.)

1. Dwight Howard gets all the love. Fame and adoration are fickle things in professional sports, here today and gone the next. Even more mysterious are the origins of certain legends. Why do some players turn into instant starts and others struggle to get the hype? In some cases, we'll never know. But will never be a problem with Dwight Howard. He's been on a steady rise in NBA circles since miseason last year when he threw down that crazy, last second alley-oop on Tim Duncan's head. He followed that seminal moment up with the "sticker dunk" and "kiss the rim dunk" at last year's dunk contest (when he was robbed by horrendous judging on the part of Michael Jordan) and then a monster second half to the season. This year he broke out with a big first month and then stayed in the news when Stan Van Gundy called him out for not rebounding ... which he followed with a 24-rebound performance in the last game before the break.

Now he's become a bonafide star, showing off his comic chops as well as his electric skill and athleticism. He stole the show during the dunk contest, displaying such grace and creativity that even Gerald Green's classic "birthday cake dunk" was relegated to second billing. Granted, Howard didn't even really dunk the ball on his "Superman dunk" (many are saying that it meets the technical definition of a dunk because it was "thrown downward into the basket" but as my buddy Stump put it, "It failed the 'I know it when I see it' test"), but his tip dunk was insane, and the behind the backboard throwdown was a nice twist on Andre Igoudala's classic (leaving his head on the other side of the backboard was pretty cool). Plus, he conducted himself in the joyful fashion of a kindergartener on recess. Then, to top it all off, he went for 16 and 9 during the game on Sunday and even threw an alley-oop to LeBron. Needless to say, he became a "star of stars" on this weekend.

2. Chris Paul is incredible. Once the East pulled away at the end of the game, it was clear that Paul wouldn't be receiving the MVP award, which is a shame because he was the most dynamic player in the contest and he nearly led an amazing comeback on his home floor. 16 and 14 is nothing to sneeze at, and that's before you consider all the steals or the crazy ballhandling stunts. The move that he made late in the third quarter, when he faked a bounce pass by spinning back into a dribble was absolutely incredible (and pretty much completely ignored by the announcing crew). The great thing about Paul is that he can play his normal style of basketball and be electric, without infringing on the "ridiculously unselfish, no blatant attempts to show anyone up" style of an All-Star game. Everything Paul does is exciting because of his speed, but ultimately pretty subtle. If you watch any Hornets game, he will do all the same things he did on Sunday: throw ridiculous passes, lull people into submission with his sick handles, drop key threes and floaters, and pick people's pockets. None of that comes off as "trying too hard" (an All-Star no-no), yet it is all entertaining AND helps his team win. Which leads us to ...

3. Brandon Roy makes a great debut. I've tabbed Roy "The Perimeter Duncan" for his cerebral, steady play, instinctual ability to lead, and preference for playing the game the right way. Therefore, I kind of assumed that he would disappear into the landscape, much like the real Duncan. I am pleased that I was so wrong. Wages of Wins had Roy as the best player on the floor on Sunday, Byron Scott played him for all the big minutes, and his line of 18-9-5 was downright sparkling. Like Paul, he played with a perfect blend of passion and unselfishness. His only downfall was when he tried to throw down on an alleyoop that was beyond his realm - a mistake he rectified late in the game when he opted to take a lob and lay it in rather than risk a miss. As always, Roy played with a poise well beyond his years.

Rookie-Sophomore Game

2008-02-16T01:15:00.002-06:00

Another All-Star Weekend, another Rookie Challenge. I don't know how many more 35-point blowouts we have to suffer through before they blend the teams, but whatever. Tonight's game featured all the usual components of this event: terrible defense, lots of dunks, a handful of surprising performances, and a bunch of screaming kids. To the latter point, let me say that I think it is great that they let the kids come to these games, but is there something that can be done about the mics? Two years in a row now, you can't even here the announcers over the wailing coming from the crowd. It shounds like people riding on a rollercoaster or being hung off a balcony.

Anyway.

Here is a quick 1-through-18 breakdown of the players involved in this game. It isn't a list of the who played the best, but rather who made the strongest impression (although, granted, those are sort of the same things):

1. Jordan Farmar. The Sophomores "let Boobie spin" (see my Eastern Conference Finals posts from last May for more information) to the tune of 11 threes tonight, but I thought Farmar was the guy that really impressed. He went for 17 and 12 with 3 steals while shooting a terrific percentage, playing good defense (!), and running the team. All in 21 minutes.

2. Boobie Gibson. Speaking of 21 minutes, that is how long it took Gibson to drain a Challenge record 11 threes and score 33 points en route to the MVP award. I thought Farmar played even better, but man, Boobie was raining jumpers from all angles. His 5-of-6 stretch to break the game open in the first have was mighty impressive. Lost in all the hoopla was his usual fantastic body control and instintive ability to track down loose balls.

3. Rudy Gay. Gay's jump shot is one of the prettiest in the game and his athleticism is out of this world. Tonight he barely had to break a sweat on his way to 22 points on 9-of-12 shooting.

4. Al Horford. He would be even higher, but for some reason he only played 21 minutes in the contest. Horford was a beast while he was out there though, going for 19 and 7 on 8-of-10 shooting. If only Kevin Durant and Jeff Green were interested in passing, he might have had 30. Horford looked even faster and more agile than normal tonight and probably helped his Rookie of the Year campaign by outplaying Durant.

5. Brandon Roy. I'm sure Nate and the rest of the Portland staff/front office is thrilled by Roy's 25 minutes, with more to come on Sunday. While he didn't play quite as well as the guys ahead of him on this list, Roy certainly didn't disappoint. He got others involved with 7 assists and managed to score 17 points of his own while also throwing down a sick dunk early in the contest. He looked every bit like the most accomplished NBA player on the floor.

6. Sean Williams. I've seen him play a lot this year so I wasn't terribly surprised to see Williams perform well. That said, I had no idea he was that fast or could handle the ball that well. The play where he grabbed a rebound, went through his legs to gather it, travelled the length of the court, and then threw it off the glass to himself with the highlight of the night. He had 17 and 10 in just 18 minutes and looked like a tremendous prospect. Why are the Nets playing Josh Boone and Nenad Kristic over him, again?

7. Rajon Rondo. I'm a Rondo homer, but he quitely had a really nice night for the Sophs. He had six assists to go with his usual three steals and was a catalyst in turning the contest into a running game. The Rookies had 24 turnovers (against only 9 for the Sophomores), which was due in large part to Rondo's defense.

8. LaMarcus Aldridge. He spent much of the game looking a little skittish and playing a step behind, but he really found his range in the second half and used his speed and height to crash the glass and get out in transition. He went for 18 and 9 with 4 assists, 3 steals, and no turnovers while logging 34 minutes.

9. Jamario Moon. He actually defended the rim on ocassion while also attacking the basket on offense and even hitting a three. Nothing amazing, but a solid performance.

10. Kevin Durant. Durant really disappointed me. He finished with a very nice stat line of 23 points (on 10-for-19 shooting), 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals, but he also had 5 turnovers and more terrible shots than I could count. Plus, he was really the only guy on the floor that totally stopped the ball when it came to him, choosing to dribble around for upward of 10 seconds before hoisting a fadeaway off of one leg. I know he's going to be amazing at some point, but the light bulb still needs to come on for him.

11. Ronnie Brewer. He used his athleticism to make some plays on the glass and at the rim, but was mostly pretty quiet.

12. Juan Carlos Navarro. Wound up with pretty nice stats and some sweet jumpers, but literally did all his damage in the last five minues during garbage time.

13. Mike Conley. Great speed and unselfishness which led to 8 dimes, but also committed five turnovers and seemed to be a bit out of control at times.

14. Yi Jianlin. Not his kind of game at all, but that step back jumper he had was pure in the third quarter. That play alone keeps him out of the bottom four.

15. Paul Millsap. Didn't do much of anything out there but the Sophs made some big runs while he was on the court.

16. Luis Scola. Same story, different team. He didn't do much at all, but had the best +/- of anyone on the Rookies team.

17. Andrea Bargnani. I'm just not impressed by his three-point jacking ways.

18. Jeff Green. How he made this team over Al Thornton is a mystery. How he played a whopping 34 minutes is utterly perplexing, when you consider that he was probably the least effective player on the court. Even with a 7-point flurry in just under a minute, he still finished 4-of-12 against no defense with 3 turnovers and 3 fouls.

LeBron James: Potentially Loving Jerry Stackhouse

2008-02-15T11:06:00.002-06:00

ESPN is reporting that the NBA might have reason to scrap Jerry Stackhouse from the Jason Kidd trade (which is on hold anyway thanks to Devean George) due to comments he made indicating that he was staying in Dallas. His confidence in a New Jersey buyout and return to Dallas make it pretty clear that he had conversations with Mark Cuban, which violate league rules.

If the NBA does get involved and pull Stackhouse from the deal, it will force Dallas to either go back to the drawing board and make a worse deal (likely including Keith Van Horn, which would create a luxury tax nightmare) or abandon the trade. Ironically, I believe this would be best for the Mavs, as Devin Harris is undervalued in the present and certainly going to provide more than Kidd going forward. That said, Dallas will probably find a way to cram this thing through, if only because their fans are expecting it.

But if they don't? Suddenly Kidd is back on the market, with the trade deadline looming, and tons of anger in his heart. You think New Jersey would keep him if that happened? They can't! Which means that the Cavs could be right back in the mix. Granted, Cleveland still doesn't have anything that the Nets would want, but if Rod Thorn were desperate enough, he might just go for something terrible, rather than deal with Captain Headache the rest of the season.

And if the Cavs were able to somehow come away with Jason Kidd and turn LeBron's James increasingly fierce frown upside down, they would probably have to find a way to give Jerry Stackhouse some sort of award, or at least a thank you note.

"Let's Play Through the All-Star Break!"

2008-02-13T23:22:00.003-06:00

Perfect quote from Beetlejuice (see: item #1 in glossary of terms) during tonight's Warriors-Suns game. With just over two minutes to play in the thrilling 120-118 Golden State victory, JVG gushed, "I don't want this game to end. Let's play through the All-Star break!"

Amen to that.

Lost in all the hype surrounding the Shaq trade (not to mention that Gasol deal and the rumored/blocked Kidd trade) is that the Suns have now played two of the most exciting games of the season and lost both in the closing seconds - at home against the Hornets when Peja hit a game-winner in double overtime, and tonight at Oracle.

There was so much to observe and analyze from tonight's game that any attempt to lasso it all into a coherent post would be ill-fated. So here are a bunch of random thoughts:

Grant Hill = Shawn Marion?. My biggest complaint about the Shaq trade when discussing it with friends is that the Suns were failing to consider Marion's true value to their roster. Frankly, I'm tired of hearing about Marion's defensive versatility, because while it is largely true, it is also becoming a massive exaggeration. Yes, he can guard point guards and power forwards alike, but it's not like he shuts them down. I've heard at least five people mention Marion's ability to guard "Tony Parker one minute and Tim Duncan the next." What? He couldn't guard either of those guys! Duncan destroyed him in the rare instances in which the Suns dared to put the Matrix on him, while Parker routinely lit up Marion. That said, Marion's plug-and-play ability was helpful (if overstated), particularly in light of his active hands, which made him a strong help defender. But to me, Marion's real value was on offense, where his speed advantage at the power forward position is what made the Suns the Suns. No 4 could keep up with him in transition and few could track him on those back cuts that often resulted in quick dunks near the rim.

I strongly believe that Steve Kerr made this trade under the assumption that Shaq would be a bonus on the court - that O'Neal's locker room presence alone would allow the Suns to become a better team. Part of this is based on the leadership qualities that Shaq brings to the table. He's smart, funny, and respected, and he's basically a player-coach at this point. It's not unlike adding Greg Maddux to your pitching staff. However, the other part of such an approach would have to include the belief that the Suns can be just as good without Marion as they were with him.

This is where I was having some problems. As I mentioned above, Marion was the guy keeping the Suns ahead of the curve in the increasingly speedy NBA and I personally didn't think that they could simply give his minutes to Boris Diaw and be okay. And a look at their record post-Marion indicates that they probably aren't quite as good. However, I watched every minute of that Hornets game and the game tonight and I can tell you that they don't look a whole lot different. They don't protect the rim well, but that is nothing new. They run like crazy, which is an old story as well. In fact, they could very well be 4-0 if it weren't for monster games from Chris Paul last Wednesday and Monta Ellis tonight (more on that below).

Furthermore, to watch Grant Hill tonight was a revelation. Short of slamming home a couple of dunks that Marion could have performed blind-folded, Hill did everything the Matrix used to do and more. He leaked out on the break and finished plays 1991 Final Four-style (see #2). He pounded the glass with 15 boards (!), including six on the offensive end. And, most importantly, he guarded everyone from Baron to Crazy Glue (see #3) and did an admirable job in the process. In fact, I would argue that his intelligence, experience, and complete unselfishness made him more effective in the "guard everyone" role than Marion. It got to the point where the Warriors just went to the hot hand who wasn't being guarded by Hill. Grant's on Baron? Let Ellis torch Nash or Jackson work Barbosa in the post. Hill switches to one of those guys? Baron goes to work. For all of the Suns' issues on defense, they really didn't miss Marion in this one. Grant Hill did the job.

As for Diaw ...

Boris Diaw can't find the magic. Against the Hornets a few weeks ago, Diaw was operating in the paint and looking like his 2006 self again. But then he kind of broke down in the closing minutes and now appears to have regressed completely. What is with this guy? In a previous post I linked to an old column about Devin Harris that moonlighted as a Boris Diaw column about halfway through and it was shocking to re-read. Diaw was destroying people back then, milking those guard switches for all they were worth on the way to monster games (such as the 34-point outburst that came complete with a game-winning shot against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals). I don't know if the game was just too fast tonight or Baron is too strong to exploit on a switch or what, but Diaw just couldn't do anything out there. This is the part where the Suns might have misfired. I suspect that they thought Diaw just needed minutes and touches - which weren't coming with Marion out there - and he would be fine. He's not.

Oh, Amare. For all of Amare Stoudemire's brilliance, the guy can't seem to put it all together. When he's amassing huge numbers, he's getting kicked around for his defense. When he plays good D, he gets called for highly dubious fouls. And tonight, when he makes his 36th straight free throw, he misses one with 3.5 seconds left. Brutal. This is the second time in two weeks (the other against San Antonio) that Amare has missed from the line in a potential game-tying situation. But it's not like he's shanking them or getting nervous. The stroke tonight was pure, the ball just circled the drain and rimmed out. What are you going to do? It just seems like Stoudemire is cursed a little bit. Against GSW he was making incredible plays at the rim, abusing Crazy Glue in a way that Dirk never could (poor "Captain Jack" draws some of the worst defensive assignments), and playing with real passion. Yet he still got screwed on multiple foul calls and had a game-tying free throw rim out when it mattered most. Hopefully he can stop walking under ladders, because despite Nash's brilliance, Barbosa's speed, Hill's (reborn) versatility, or Shaq's arrival, this team is only going to the Finals if Amare Stoudemire carries them there. I'm sorry, but there it is.

Enough Phoenix. Already over a thousand words in and nothing about the winning team. The Warriors continue to be, in my opinion, the most exciting team in the NBA. I had lunch with a couple of fellow NBA junkies yesterday and I told them that when it comes to making TiVo choices off of NBA League Pass, I pretty much just go with the Warriors whenever they are at home. Anything at Oracle is Must See TV at this point. GSW might still leg an egg on the road, but they never quit on their home floor and with that frothing crowd, you just aren't getting a more exciting NBA experience in the middle of February.

Tonight, the specific Warriors highlights included: Baron Davis overcoming yet another slow start and Hill's pesky defense to elevate his playmaking skills and make some huge shots down the stretch. Stephen Jackson hitting some monster threes in that deliberate way that only he can make work. Monta Ellis making me feel really good about my post from two days ago by destroying Phoenix to the tune of 37 points (on 18-of-27 from the floor), 9 boards, and 5 assists, while playing all 48 minutes (I'm not quite finished raving about Ellis). Plus, Baron Davis bringing his usual brand of comedy to the post-game interview by jokingly blaming Ellis for letting Barbosa get loose for a potential game-winning three.

More Monta. I might have a new favorite player, folks. Ellis is just so much fun to watch and aside from his lack of deep range and the occasional defensive lapse, is pretty much doing everything perfectly right now. His pull-up jumper is absolutely unstoppable and as JVG said during tonight's telecast, "It's pretty much a layup at this point." Speaking of layups, Ellis is quickly becoming one of the best finishers in the NBA. He has the speed of Tony Parker, the handles of Allen Iverson, the leaping ability of Dwayne Wade, and the body control of Devin Harris (got my boy in there!). I'm not sure anybody can leave the floor and then slide by defenders the way this guy does. He almost never gets called for charging even though he routinely takes off from outside the circle and he possesses tremendous concentration that allows him to finish while simultaneously dodging defenders. He's also a great rebounder for his size and is really developing as a passer, which makes him even more dangerous off the dribble. To top it all off, he showcases an emotional maturity far beyond his years. People have always said that Tim Duncan is unflappable and that his demeanor never changes, but that isn't true. Duncan complains more than virtually any other player in the league. He's just not real demonstrative in a reactionary sense. Ellis, on the other hand, truly seems to be wearing a mask while on the court. He's like a cyborg! Personally, I don't mind if a guy sneers a bit or slams the ball down, but I can also appreciate when a player has such control over his emotions while still playing hard. He's an extremely impressive player and I feel like we're seeing him come of age right now, but that very few people are taking notice. Perhaps that will change after the big game on national TV tonight, but with all the trades going down and the All-Star game bearing down on us, less attention is being paid to the actual games. Hopefully folks aren't missing the birth of Monta Ellis: NBA Superstar. Because it's happening.

Glossary

1. Beetlejuice - Jeff Van Gundy, former NBA head coach and current ESPN analyst. Known for witty comments in the booth, hard-nosed defensive schemes as a coach, and for riding Alonzo Mourning's leg like a mechanical bull during the 1999 Playoffs.

2. 1991 Final Four Style - This describes the ridiculous dunk that Grant Hill threw down on virtually the entire Kansas team back in, yes, 1991. And no, Hill wasn't jumping quite like tonight and his finishes were more of the finger roll variety, but you get the idea.

3. Crazy Glue - Stephen Jackson, both certifiably crazy and the glue of this Warriors team. I'm still not sure which entity has seen the bigger resurgence since the Pacers-Warriors trade last year, Jackson or the city of Oakland.

The Mavs (and Blazers) Will Rue The Day ...

2008-02-13T17:07:00.002-06:00

Jason Kidd has been traded to the Mavericks, according to ESPN's Marc Stein. Or, as I believe it will eventually be remembered, Devin Harris has been traded to the Nets.

Look, there is no denying the fact that I'm probably the biggest Devin Harris believer on the World Wide Web. This became clear several weeks back when those three-team trade rumors were flying around and I jumped out of my skin in excitement over the prospect of Portland acquiring Harris in the deal. You can read all about it here and here. (And if you really want to go crazy, you can read my first ever column about Devin Harris here.

My problem with Dallas' dealings here is comprised of two issues: 1) Kidd is being overvalued and 2) Harris is being undervalued. I'll dispense with the first issue by simply pointing you to John Hollinger's column and letting you soak up the gory details for yourself - the 36.7% shooting, the booming turnover stats, the miniscule scoring numbers, and all the rest. Just know that triple-doubles don't equate to wins, as Hollinger accurately points out.

The Harris thing is what really confuses me. Despite torching the Suns in the 2006 playoffs and evolving into a legit top-10 point guard this year at the age of 24, Harris can't seem to get any respect whatsoever from pundits or fans alike. If you watch games consistently, you will observe that Harris is unbelievably quick, has tremendous reach, can get to the rim at will, plays great defense, and has an ever-improving jump shot. Before being sidelined with an ankle injury, Harris was destroying people and prompting Avery Johnson to say that Harris will be an All-Star in the near future. Seriously, folks, people have a very difficult time guarding this man. And if you don't trust your eyes, just take a look at the numbers. As Hollinger pointed out today, Harris' value becomes clear when you start looking at +/- numbers and Dallas' record when he doesn't play.

I think Dallas is going to really regret making this trade and I think Portland is going to rue the fact that they didn't take advantage of the Mavericks' panic in order to secure a franchise point guard. That said, none of this really surprises me. It doesn't surprise me that the Blazers are overvaluing their own players (after the last two weeks does anyone still think that Travis Outlaw is better than Harris?) and it certainly doesn't surprise me that Dallas has responded in this fashion. After all, this is the same team that rolled out a small ball lineup in last year's playoffs in order to counter the roster of an eighth seeded Warriors team - this, after winning 67 regular season games. So it hardly comes as a shock that they would freak out after the Lakers made their move for Gasol. Nevermind that Dallas is the team that went to the Finals in '06 and had the best record in the league last year. Nevermind that the Mavs looked every bit like a title contender when Harris and Stackhouse were healthy. No, it is better to let a team beneath you in the standings dictate your decisions. Unwise, in my opinion.

Of course, I'm on record already predicting Dallas-Boston in the Finals, so I'm kind of covered either way. If Kidd turns the Mavs into NBA champs, I'll just point to my picks. If he runs them into the ground while breaking all their backboards (with jumpers, not dunks), then I'll show you this post instead. Genius!

Monta Ellis Doesn't Miss Much

2008-02-10T23:52:00.000-06:00

I watch a lot of Warriors games and the guy that has impressed me the most of late is Monta Ellis. Stephen Jackson still does a lot of great things and Baron Davis can dominate at any moment, but Ellis is the guy keeping Golden State in the playoff hunt. His speed on the perimeter helps the Warriors play at such a fast pace despite the fact that Baron is often playing through injuries and Jackson looks like he's running on stilts at times. Ellis' rebounding is exceptional for a guard. He's becoming better and better at the drive-and-dish game and his D is picking up as well. Plus, last year's Most Improved Player is starting to become far more consistent.

All of that said, Ellis is so valuable to the Warriors primarily because he makes most of his shots. In an era of NBA hoops when guards can miss sixty percent of their shots and still get max deals, Ellis is an aberration. He is shooting almost 53% for the season (fourth among all players averaging at least 13 FGA's, behind only Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, and Kevin Garnett, and third among all guards, behind Ronnie Brewer and Jose Calderon) and doing it in every way imaginable. He's a fantastic finisher near the rim and excels at getting out in transition, but he's also become a deadly mid-range shooter - able to knock down jumpers off the catch or pulling up off the dribble. He might, in fact, have the best pull-up jumper in the league right now from 18 feet. Equally important is that he recognizes his strengths and eschews the three point shot. This is remarkable given both the culture of the modern game as well as the influence that his trigger-happy teammates have on him. Ellis' refusal to hoist threes (he's taken just 34 all year and two in 2008) has resulted in him getting better looks and (surprise, surprise) making far more of them.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Ellis' shooting touch is that it keeps improving. He started the year slowly, struggling to play without Jackson early and then dealing with some confidence issues. However, he shot 52% in December and since January 1st is shooting a whopping 58% from the field, which is Amare Stoudemire territory. And over the last three games he's gone a ridiculous 30-for-37, tallying 80 points on those field goal attempts. When's the last time you saw somebody do that?

Nobody is talking about Monta Ellis, but they should be. He's combining the speed and finishing ability of Tony Parker with the midrange game of Rip Hamilton and evolving into one of the game's premier offensive weapons. Over his last eight games Ellis is averaging 23 points on an incredible 64% shooting.

Don't let the playoffs sneak up on you before you take note of this rising young star.

The List of Isiah Haters Gets Longer

2008-02-08T21:07:00.000-06:00

You can add all Western Conference playoff contenders to that particular roster, as the Knicks blew the chance at a shocking home win over the defending champs tonight. Up 88-85 with just seconds remaining, the Idiotbockers somehow failed to foul and prevent a game-tying three. Instead, they watched as Graybeard Finley dropped a three with 0.4 seconds left to knot the game and send it in to overtime. Thoroughly depressed, the Knicks then went on to lose on overtime.

Roy for MVP?

2008-02-08T21:02:00.001-06:00

If there was any doubt as to Brandon Roy's value in Portland, it was put to rest tonight as the Blazsers were pounded into submission by the Pistons with Roy out of the lineup. The "Absence Factor" played a big role in Steve Nash winning his first MVP (when the Suns went 1-4 on a road trip with him out of the lineup), so maybe this will spark some chatter for Roy. Doubtful, but you never know. I mean, Portland was horrendous without him and it wasn't just on the scoreboard. Nobody could get open shots and the guys that depend on Roy for their jumpers (namely Blake, Webster, and Outlaw) were a combined 7-for-26 when I finally gave up and turned off the game.

Portland will be better able to withstand Roy's absence next year with Oden and Rudy Fernandez on the roster and a trade for Devin Harris would help on that front as well, but for now, they live and die with their All-Star.

Lakers D: Maybe a Problem After All

2008-02-08T18:35:00.000-06:00

Amidst all of the Paul Gasol hoopla, a few people have wondered how this will affect the Lakers defensively, especially when Bynum gets back. After all, Gasol isn't a great defender and his insertion into the lineup will create a few matchup problems with Pau chasing around athletic power forwards (like Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Harrington, David West, and others) and Lamar Odom being forced to guard small forwards. Plus, it takes Trevor Ariza off the floor, who is L.A.'s premier defensive specialist.

Anyway, I mention this because I just got done watching the Orlando Magic hang 44 points on L.A. in the first quarter of tonight's game. They did it without making a free throw or garnering a steal. It was just drive and kick and feeding the post to the tune of 18-for-24 shooting (including 8-of-11 on mostly wide open threes) and 14 assists.

Yikes.

[Update: L.A. shook off that rough first quarter and wound up winning 117-113 behind 36 from Kobe and 30 from Gasol. The only issue I really saw was the inability to close out on shooters (Fisher is short, Kobe prefers to leak out, Odom is a step delayed) and an imbalance in FGA's. Kobe was 11-for-26 while Gasol was 12-for-15 and Odom 5-for-5. When your two bigs are 17-for-20, you'd like to see them get more shots. I guess Kobe was in full "prove to everyone what I can do" mode after the twin sub-double digit performances. I will probably be accused of being a Kobe Hater for saying this, but the Lakers' Achilles Heel is Kobe's insistance on playing a contrived brand of basketball. He and Gilbert Arenas both fall victim to a unique brand of self awareness that leads them to respond to the media in a premeditated and unnatural way. They just need to play basketball.]

Game of the Year (So Far)

2008-02-06T23:03:00.000-06:00

New Orleans' 132-130 double overtime victory at Phoenix tonight was an absolutely incredible game. Probably the best of the year. In fact, it was such a wild, rollercoaster ride that it is nearly impossible to come up with a cohesive angle when writing about it. One minute I was ready for a "Chris Paul: Don't Write His MVP Eulogy Just Yet" title and the next I had "Phoenix Suns: Not Missing Marion" queued up. The game went back and forth and then back again more times than I could count. Considering that the Hornets and Suns engaged in this battle on a day when the Shaq-Marion tradewinds were swirling, the day after LeBron helped the Cavs edge the Celtics in a thrilling affair, and just a few days after the big Gasol trade, you could argue that this has been the most exciting first week of February in recent NBA history.

Since I can't come up with one specific angle on the 2OT contest, here are a bunch of random thoughts:

Boris Diaw almost pulled it off. Despite Shawn Marion's reported grumpiness issues, I was among the many who thought trading him was still a bad idea. Tonight, Boris Diaw almost wiped that all away. For 45 minutes he was running the floor, abusing guards in the post (on the screen-and-roll switches that the Lakers remember all too well from the 2006 Playoffs), finishing in the lane, and even rattling off jumpers. Then, in crunch time, he reverted back to old, passive Diaw that overpasses and commits turnovers in key spots. For the Suns to remain near the top of the Western Conference without the Matrix, they are going to need the aggressive Diaw at all times. Tonight he was "this" close to coming through on that front. Speaking of filling Marion's shoes ...

Grant Hill just became Phoenix's most important defender. Raja Bell is still the Suns' best defensive player and many basketball people are under the delusion that Shaq is a "rim protecter" (even though he can barely jump over a phone book), but Grant Hill holds the key to Phoenix's defense from here on out due to his versatility and smarts. If he can give the Suns a fraction of Marion's interchangeable defensive abilities, they just might be okay.

Chris Paul is incredible ... and possibly an a-hole. On a night when the Hornets didn't have their "bona fide ... well, should have been All-Star in my mind" (hilarious quote from Suns' broadcaster Eddie Johnson) center Tyson Chandler and when David West struggled mightily from the field, New Orleans became virtually a two-man team. One of those men was Peja Stojakovic, who has decided to join Hedo Turkaglu in a plot to inflict emotional damage on all Sacramento Kings fans by making ridiculous game-winning shots. However, while Peja's buzzer beater will be all over SportsCenter, it was Paul that got them the win. He scored 42 points and did it almost entirely on deep threes, pull-up jumpers, and floaters from 10 feet, rarely getting all the way to the rim for easy baskets. He also dished out nine assists despite the Suns playing for the pass and garnered a ridiculous eight steals. Many of those steals came while guarding Steve Nash and a few them were steals of Nash passes while Paul was guarding the two-time MVP. Do you know how rare it is to steal a pass when the man you are guarding is the one throwing it? Paul did it like four times tonight and forced Nash into a 10-turnover game in the process.

However, for all of that basketball dominance, I am starting to suspect that Paul isn't the most well-liked guy around. His demeanor on the court ranges from arrogant to petulant (although it settles on "poker face" the majority of the time) and he has the infamous nut-punching incident on his resume. What tipped me off though is when Barbosa hit him hard tonight on a breakaway and then just left Paul laying on the ground. Barbosa appears to be one of the nicest players in the league, yet he ran away from the prone Paul like his counterpart had the virus from Outbreak. It's just a hunch, but it won't surprise me if we come to find out that Paul is a bit of a jerk. But whatever. For now, man can that guy handle the ball.

Steve Nash is one proud man. Despite getting pretty severely thrashed by Paul for three and a half quarters, Nash showed why he has multiple MVP trophies to his credit. He made numerous huge plays down the stretch and sent the game into the first overtime when he drained a three with just seconds left. Nobody in basketball hits the full-speed pull-up three in transition like Nash and few NBA players bring it like he does night in and night out. Watching him rally against the young upstart was downright inspirational.

Amare rising. Nobody seems to want to give Amare Stoudemire any credit these days but he certainly showed something tonight. He went 20-20 and did his usual thing on the pick-and-roll, but it was his defense that really caught my eye. Maybe he's fired up by the thought of playing with Shaq (he's in for a rude awakening when he realizes that it is the 36-year old version coming to town), but whatever it was, Amare was transformed tonight. He blocked four shots, changed several others, and had a thrilling sequence in the fourth quarter where he thwarted David West on three consecutive trips. A really strong showing by The Mohawk tonight.

Paxson is looking great. Remember a year ago when I was kicking Bulls GM John Paxson around for treating Luol Deng like he was Scottie Pippen, blowing the Chandler/Ben Wallace decision, and refusing to acquire Pau Gasol? I was a lone wolf then, fighting off rabid Paxson supporters on all sides. Now? You can't throw a rock without hitting a Paxson critic. The guy has made an absolute mess of things in the Windy City by playing all the wrong cards, wasting expiring contracts, and getting caught between winning now and building for the future. On top of all the stuff we remember him screwing up, he also managed to let Jannero Pargo get away. Pargo is lighting it up off the bench for the Hornets, proving to be an unstoppable microwave scorer and almost single-handedly carrying a thin second unit in New Orleans. Meanwhile the Bulls are routinately scoring in the 80s and can't make any deals because Gordon and Nocioni represent the only scoring punch they have. Great work!

Maybe Golden State is on to something. Going back to a previous point, isn't it amazing to see Turkaglu and Stojakovic playing like this? Hedo has always underperformed as an NBA player while Peja is known for being a bit of a choker as well as a china doll. Now both guys are playing great and are cogs on top three teams in their respective conferences. Kings fans have to be just bitter. Plus, Bobby Jackson is still alive and making shots - who knew? It all makes me think that Webber is going to be great in Oakland. And Bibby will regain his old form in his next city (maybe Cleveland). Heck, maybe someone should bring Vlade out of retirement. Doug Christie, anyone? (Note: I don't think this will apply to Artest if he gets moved because he's not part of the "Near Miss Kings" from the early part of this decade.

Head Still Spinning

2008-02-06T15:03:00.000-06:00

The inbox is starting to fill up with emails asking for my response to the rumored Shaq-Marion trade.

Sorry, but I don't have one yet. I'm still trying to wake up from what has to be a dream.

Seriously ... what the hell?

Josh Smith: Best Shot-Blocking Swingman Ever?

2008-02-04T19:13:00.000-06:00

I'm watching the Hawks battle the Sixers right now and feel compelled to ask the question. It is currently halftime and Smith already has eight blocks in the first 24 minutes. Not only that, there wasn't a cheep one in the bunch. He continues to amaze me with his ability to block shots in every fashion imaginable. He gets off the ground with amazing quickness, which allows him to block his own man's shot (a pretty rare skill), he chases guys down the break better than anyone in the league (yes, better than Tayshaun Prince), and of course he can swat shots from the weak side as a help defender.

Before Smith I probably would have said Dr. J or maybe Larry Natz (if you could call him a "perimeter" player), but I think the 6'9" freak of nature is in the process of settling this debate. I never, ever thought I would see a guy that can play shooting guard and still block 4 shots a game. Amazing.

[Update: Smith finished with just one more block in the game, as the Sixers treated him like a shutdown NFL corner and just tried to stay away from him for the remainder of the contest. Nevertheless, Smith finished the game with 9 blocks to go with 9 assists. Any researchers out there know the last time that happened?]

[Double Update: Thanks to Bloughchi, who gave us the answer to the research question:

"The only other times 9 or more blocks and 9 or more assists have been recorded in the same game:

3/3/1990 by Hakeem Olajuwon in a quadruple double.

3/29/1990 by Hakeem Olajuwon in another quadruple double

2/17/1994 by David Robinson in, you guessed it, another quadruple double.

That's quite some company if you ask me."]

Blazers-Knicks (and More on Devin Harris)

2008-02-02T02:29:00.001-06:00

I watched every second of the Blazers 94-88 overtime win against the Knicks tonight, in part because I love the Blazers but also because I'm trying to talk myself out of the feeling that this Devin Harris trade has to happen.

On one hand, I guess tonight's game was proof that Portland shouldn't engage in such a drastic trade as the victory underscored the team's ability to win by playing hard and as a group. The Knicks are a sorry basketball team, no doubt, but they were getting after it at the Rose Garden and weren't an easy squad to put away. Plus, the young Blazers were coming off that heart-wrenching loss at the hands of LeBron the other day. Travis Outlaw (rumored to be part of the Harris deal) made a bunch of big plays and Jarrett Jack even came through in the OT. So it was admittedly harder to push for the trade while watching these young guys work like crazy for a come-from-behind win.

On the other hand, this game could be seen another way entirely. Sure, they won, but it was a home game against New York. Should the Blazers really need to struggle to win that type of contest? They had serious problems in three areas tonight: containing quick guards, getting out in transition, and securing defensive rebounds. These are the three biggest issues with this team in general, as well. The rebounding issue was blatant tonight as former Blazer Zach Randolph hit the glass (13 boards) and the Knicks energizer bunny duo of David Lee and Renaldo Balkman combined for a whopping 13 offensive rebounds (four more than the entire Blazers team). However, that problem is the one most likely to be solved in the long run as Greg Oden should provide a terrific presence on the boards.

(By the way, I'd like to note here that Isiah Thomas is a moron for not playing Balkman and Lee 35 minutes a night together at the two forward spots. He's busy carving out minutes for Eddy Curry and Quentin Richardson and the whole time he's got these two whirling dervishes on his bench. Lee and Balkman finally got some run together - 74 minutes - and combined for 25 points and 10-of-16 shooting, 25 rebounds, and 3 blocks. With shoot-first Randolph in the post and shoot first guards Nate Robinson and Jamal Crawford on the perimeter, Lee and Balkman are the perfect guys to slot in at the forward spots. I guess it just makes too much sense for Thomas.)

The other two problems - handling quick guards and getting out in transition - are not going away for the Blazers, even after Oden arrives with his shot-blocking ability. Portland had very few transition chances against a poor transition defense and Nate Robinson was able to get to the rim at will in the first half and make several key plays down the stretch simply because he was faster than anyone Portland had to put on him.

These two issues are why I feel so strongly that the Blazers need to make this Devin Harris trade happen. He is lightening fast, long, and underrated defensively. If he's on the court tonight, he completely negates Robinson, helps get the Blazers into transition, and likely helps to blow New York right off the court. (Plus, Brandon Bass would have been a nice answer on the glass.)

I mentioned in a previous post that the Blazers might be able to convince the Nets to take less in exchange for Kidd. If they could swap Webster and Sergio for Outlaw (giving up Jack, Webster, Frye, and Rodriguez), that would be ideal. And while at first glance it seems unlikely that the Nets would consent to that, remember that their primary motivation is the financial flexibility that comes from getting out from under Kidd's contract. As we saw with Memphis today, the talent coming back in a trade is secondary to the dollar issues.

Were such a trade to go through, it would leave the Blazers with the following players, in order of value:

1. Brandon Roy - Oden or no Oden, this guy is the franchise right now.

2. LaMarcus Aldridge - I know most would consider Oden to be the more valuable big man, but the fact is we don't know exactly what Oden is going to do at the pro level, nor do we know how healthy he will be. Aldridge is already showing serious skills and is following the Chris Bosh Instructional Video to the letter. I've said it before, but this team will likely go as far as Aldridge can take them.

3. Greg Oden - Not bad when a franchise center is only the third-most valuable guy on the team.

4. Devin Harris - A top flight defender, one of the fastest guys in the NBA, and a top 10 point guard based on PER ... all at age 24. This guy is a keeper and the answer to title obstacles now (Tony Parker) and later (Chris Paul).

5. Travis Outlaw - He convinced me tonight that he can be this team's starting small forward down the road, which means he's not such a danger to Aldridge's minutes/development. I understand why Portland fans are on the fence about trading him for Harris, but if push came to shove, I think Harris has more value (as you can see).

6. Rudy Fernandez - It is appropriate to slot him here, since he's going to wind up being a Manu-esque 6th Man for the Blazers. His size, handles, athleticism, and playmaking are going to be a godsend next year for a team in need of fast break players. He might actually be more valuable than Outlaw, but I'll go with the known commodity for now.

7. Steve Blake - He's become a deadly shooter this year, which has to frustrate George Karl (if Blake made threes like this last April, the Spurs would have been watching the second round of the playoffs from home). Regardless, he's a gritty player who can spread the floor and would be an ideal guy to back up Harris and even play alongside him when Portland wants to go to that three-guard lineup.

8. Joel Przybilla - Prezbo will make for a very nice backup center.

9. James Jones - He is struggling mightily right now, but he has proved throughout the season that he can be more than three-point specialist ... as long as his shot is falling he tends to come alive in other areas.

10. Brandon Bass - He would have more value this year, plugging the hole left by Frye, but could still help out down the road, even after Oden returns.

11. Taurean Green - I'm not convinced that this guy won't be a legit NBA point guard at some point (sorry for the double negative).

12. Josh McRoberts - Ditto, but substitute the word "forward" in place of "point guard."

Others - Raef LaFrentz (he always be a Portland hero just for being part of the deal that netted Brandon Roy), Darius Miles (I speak for all Blazers fans when I say, please, get rid of him soon), Petteri Koponen, and Joel Freeland.

The best thing about this team is that they would have all the pieces in place and at similar ages, meaning that there would be no need to make moves via free agency. Which is good, because by the time they lock everybody up to long-term deals, the salary cap will be about $110 million. Good thing Paul Allen is rich!

But I think they need speed at the point guard position. They need Harris. Hopefully they can throw the aforementioned group of players and maybe a few draft picks at New Jersey (and hopefully Dallas will panic after the Gasol trade) and get this done while still keeping Outlaw. Hopefully.

Forward Thinking

2008-02-02T02:03:00.000-06:00

It has been a while since I've used a cheesy play-on-words title, but it seemed appropriate tonight in light of all the unheralded forwards stepping up and making big contributions. In fact, I can't remember the last time I saw so many guys come out of nowhere and play well at one position. Here were a few of the guys that caught my eye:

Carl Landry, Houston. The rookie out of Purdue has only played in 13 games this year for the Rockets, but he's now appeared in 10 straight and is starting to look like a real player. He's undersized at 6'7" but I remember seeing him play against Arizona in the 2007 NCAA Tournament and being impressed by his ability to score in the post despite being a "tweener." He kind of reminds me of Sam Perkins with his long arms and lefty release and he has nice range on his jumper to go with really good rebounding instincts. Houston has struggled to find a power forward who can score and rebound while bracketing Yao with some athleticism (Stro Swift, Juwan Howard, Chuck Hayes, and Luis Scola all lack at least one of those three things), so the mere possibility that Landry could help fill the void has to be exciting. Tonight he really put on a show, scoring 14 fourth quarter points and taking over a road game at Indy. He finished 9-of-11 from the floor and tallied 22 points, 7 rebounds, a steal, and a block in just 20 minutes of action. Terrific performance.

Shawne Williams, Indiana. I've always liked this former Memphis forward and tonight he had a really nice game off the bench for the Pacers. His range improves all the time and in this one he made all three of his attempts from deep on the way to 17 points on 7-of-9 shooting to go with 3 assists, a block, and a steal. Indiana needs players to put around Danny Granger and I think they would be better off seeing what this youngster can do than they are with Troy Murphy plodding around.

Thaddeus Young, Philly. He's been coming on strong lately, but tonight Young looked exceptional for stretches against the Magic in a 108-106 loss. His numbers were fairly modest - 15 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal - but his athleticism and effort were remarkable. It helps that he is left handed, because for some reason that stool fools about 60% of NBA defenders. I think the Sixers have a real keeper in Young and should consider themselves lucky that he fell to them at the bottom of the lottery last summer.

Craig Smith, Minnesota. I expected Smith to be a nice sleeper this year, but he's having a tricky time coexisting with fellow banger Al Jefferson. Tonight he was able to maul the Clippers undersized front line to the tune of 21 points and 7 boards on 9-of-11 shooting. I think Smith is the type of guy who would contribute even more to a good team and really shine as a role player in that type of setting. In fact, he would look really good bolstering Phoenix's front line, giving them muscle, rebounding, and even some post scoring. Plus, he only makes $700K, so the Suns can actually afford him. Maybe a future first round pick would get it done?

Andray Blatche, Washington. I've always been high on Blatche, dating back to when the Wizards nabbed him with a second round pick in the 2005 Draft. And despite being shot last year, he is really coming around. It's to the point where Blatche typically produces when given minutes. But tonight he looked particularly good, crashing the glass, protecting the rim, and - a big one for a young guy - learning on the fly. He was swatted by Utah's Andrei Kirilenko numerous times in the first half while trying to flip in shots after offensive rebounds. Early in the fourth quarter he took a feed on the fast break and dunked on AK47's head with two hands. You have to see a young big man evolve during a game and made key adjustments. You also have to love the following stat line: 19 points, 13 boards, 3 steals, and 4 blocks. Yikes. Granted, it remains to be seen if he can keep up the solid play when Caron Butler returns, but if nothing else, Blatche is proving he can get the job done when given the chance to start. (Also: he's another guy that would really help the Suns.)

(I should note that I tuned in to this game to see Al Thornton, but unfortunately, my man went 1-for-15 from the field. Ouch.)

Renaldo Balkman, New York. Together with David Lee, Balkman brought energy, poise, and tenacious rebounding in a near upset at Portland. More on this in the next post.

Fire up the Trade Machines!

2008-02-01T22:53:00.000-06:00

With news of the Gasol trade still reverberating throughout the NBA, it seems highly likely that the Western Conference is going to resemble a 1980's junk bond trading floor on Wall Street. With so many quality teams closely bunched, who can afford to stand pat when one squad makes a big splash?

And lest we forget, the Warriors tried to address their lack of experience and stagnant half court passing by bringing in Old Man Webber, while the Spurs have tried once again to pull the old "Randy Moss" act by getting a cranky veteran to change his stripes (the Damon Stoudamire signing). The Gasol deal is the blockbuster, but that makes three teams in the West that have tried to improve in the span of three days.

Who might follow suit?

I expect the Suns to try to get their miserly hands on a backup point guard (Dan Dickau, anyone?), the Nuggets to parlay Linas Kleiza into an experienced swingman (namely Ron Artest or Mike Miller), and for the Hornets to take a long look at their shooting guard situation.

Personally, however, I think this puts the greatest pressure on the Mavs and Blazers to complete the rumored three-way trade involving Jason Kidd and Devin Harris.

The Lakers have vaulted toward the top of the heap in the West, but Dallas is still a very credible threat to win it all. That said, the problems that plagued them against the Warriors last year - team speed, inability to defend big point guards, and lack of vocal leadership - are even bigger issues now that another team can match them from a talent standpoint. A few days ago I didn't like the Kidd trade for them, but now I think they have to take a shot. Dirk and Josh Howard aren't exactly old, but Terry has quite a few miles on him and there just isn't a long shelf life for core groups with emotional baggage. Adding Kidd will give this team a new mental makeup and perhaps sprinkle the roster with a dose of confidence. Plus, he can be paired with Terry in a backcourt better suited to defend big guards. I'm just not sure Dallas can afford to stand pat, knowing that they've blown better opportunities.

As for Portland, I remain convinced that Devin Harris is prized acquisition and that they would be crazy not to snatch him up. That said, I'm starting to think that perhaps they can give up less and get more in such a deal. I know the salaries are complex in this transaction, but there are already rumors of Sergio going out and Brandon Bass coming back in the exchange. This already makes it a better deal for Portland. And if they could get New Jersey to take Martell Webster - instead of Travis Outlaw - along with Jack, Frye, and Sergio, I think they have to make the deal. Even if the Nets insist on Outlaw, I in favor of it the move. (For the record, Webster and Rodriguez make nearly $4 million between them, which is Outlaw's salary, so I think this could work under the financial constraints.)

It should be interested to see what happens. Because the Lakers have made themselves a lot better in one move and should remain good for several years. Now is not the time to sit on a flawed roster.

Lakers Get Gasol

2008-02-01T14:46:00.001-06:00

ESPN is reporting that the Lakers and Grizzlies have agreed to a deal that sends Pau Gasol to L.A. in exchange for Kwame Brown (and his expiring contract), rookie Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie's corpse - whoops, sorry - contract, the rights to Marc Gasol (kind of weird), and future first round picks in 2008 and 2010.

I'm not sure what is more interesting here - the fact that this trade happened or that Henry Abbott over at True Hoop floated this very idea this morning. I've had some good predictions in my day (have I mentioned that I predicted Roy would make this year's All-Star team? Just making sure ...), but this is the Mount Everest of predictions. In fact, this almost goes beyond predictions. Did the Memphis and L.A. front office read Henry's post and think, "Wow, that's a good idea"? Just a fascinating turn of events.

As for the trade itself, I think it was fantastic for the Lakers. Not so much for Memphis.

Let me start with the "losers." In exchange for one of the 10 best post players in the league, Memphis gets back Kwame Brown for half a season, cap space, yet another young point guard, and two first round picks. Here's the problem with all of this. Cap space is never as good as it seems in this day and age. I know Gasol wasn't really working out under Ivaroni, but are they really going to get someone better with that money? They'll probably wind up pulling an Orlando Magic and signing a guy like Rashard Lewis for $120 million. I know Elton Brand and others are in this class, but I'm telling you, playing the free agency card rarely works out well. Just go back to the time Chicago had to splurge on Ron Mercer if you don't believe me.

If Memphis doesn't parlay Brown's contract into a stud like Brand, this deal doesn't have much else to it. Yes, there are two future first round picks, but what are those going to be worth? The Lakers are loaded now and won't be picking earlier than 20th anytime soon. Drafting in the 20's is so unpredictable that it might as well be the second round, just with more salary obligations. (Heck, I'd rather have the second round pick.) And Crittenton? The only way he adds value is if another trade is on the way. Maybe they like a bigger guy to back up Conley and think they can get something good for Kyle Lowry (they would probably be right about that), but everything I hear is that Memphis loves Lowry and won't trade him. (I don't really blame them, because as one reader pointed out last summer, Conley and Lowry gives them a "Mike Lowry" Bad Boys backcourt.) Do they think Crittenton is going to be a major chip in a trade?

I believe the Grizzlies would have been better off sucking up their pride and using the next few weeks to boost Gasol's trade value. That means no plays for Rudy Gay, 20 FGA's every night for Gasol, and other ways to get his stats and profile up. That said, maybe this is the best they could do. Doesn't mean they aren't the loser of the deal.

As for the Lakers, this is a monster trade. For starters, it drives the final nail into the "Kobe wants out" coffin. Between the evolution of Farmar and Bynum, the acquisition of Fisher, and now this, Kobe couldn't possibly have any complaints. In fact, the only issue he could really take with management at this point would be fuming over that old Caron Butler trade ... except that even that horrible deal has now netted Gasol! Mitch Kupchak is pulling off one of the great comeback stories in front office history.

In addition to keeping Bryant happy, the deal also gives the Lakers a legit shot at winning a title. As in now. Gasol should be able to keep the team afloat while Bynum is out, which is hugely important. The West is so loaded this year that the line separating "title contender" from "10th" is razor thin. Even without Gasol, the Lakers are a team that no one wants to see in the playoffs. But with Bynum out for at least another month, would they even get there? They just lost the first contest of a nine-game road trip and were they to hit the skids for a couple of weeks, they'd find themselves looking up at the rest of the conference. You can't win the playoffs unless you actually make the playoffs. Bringing in Gasol virtually assures that.

Additionally, Gasol makes them a better playoff team. He's proven to perform best when the chips are down (for the Spanish national team and even when his overmatched Grizzlies team made the playoffs) and now gives the Lakers a whopping three players who routinely command double teams (joining Kobe and Bynum). How are teams going to match up with this Lakers squad? Furthermore, it gives L.A. all kinds of flexibility. They can go huge with Bynum, Gasol, and Odom on the frontline. They can pull the plug on the Odom Era (he looks like a shell of himself) and bring in someone more suited to play small forward next to the two bigs. They can explore moving him for a point guard. They can put a fantastic transition team on the floor when Bynum is out or resting, by loading up with Gasol, Odom, Ariza, Bryant, and Farmar. Short of the Suns or Warriors (sans Webber), who can keep up with that lineup?

I know that I've always been particularly high on Gasol (much like Devin Harris), but even the people who think he is overrated (or soft or any of the other criticisms that have surfaced over the years) have to admit that this is a huge acquisition for the Lakers.

This year, in the Western Conference, there appears to be no such thing as a favorite. But if there was, the Lakers might now be the team wearing that crown.

What a trade.

Maybe He Tried to Hit David Stern With His Car

2008-01-31T22:50:00.000-06:00

I know it is probably too soon to make jokes about NBA officiating conspiracies, but I'm starting to wonder what it is exactly that Amare Stoudemire has done to piss off every single referee in the league. Nobody, and I mean nobody, gets hosed more than Amare when it comes to bad calls. Tonight was no exception as he was whistled for a completely bizarre phantom offensive foul on a fast break and sent to the bench just two minutes into the game.

It never fails - whenever I watch the Suns, Amare gets in foul trouble without seeming to foul. Amazing stuff.

Rondo is the Realness

2008-01-31T22:39:00.001-06:00

There has been a lot of chatter about Boston adding point guard help for the playoffs - most of it centered around Sam Cassell and a possible buyout in L.A. That sort of speculation is totally understandable whenever there is a second-year point guard manning the controls and the one-dimensional Eddie House backing him up. However, the irony here is that the rumors are heating up while Rondo keeps getting better. A month ago I would have said, yes, Boston needs to add a veteran point guard. But now I don't think that is true, because the man with the E.T. hands is really coming along.

He's showing more confidence, is becoming a vocal leader, is proving to be a true difference-maker on the defensive end, and is now adding a fairly devestating dribble-drive game to his arsenal. It seems like he's making at least one highlight play every game while doing all the "little things" that Boston is going to need in aid of KG, Pierce, and Allen.

Tonight against the Mavericks, Rondo put on one of his most impressive displays yet. Despite being limited to 27 minutes by foul trouble (a combination of a few bad reaches and a couple of terrible calls), Rondo hah the best +/- of either team in Boston's 96-90 win over Dallas, clocking in at +13. He also nabbed an astouding 12 rebounds, despite the limited minutes and being the smallest guy on the court for most of the game. No rebound was bigger than the offensive board he grabbed with 42 seconds left, as Rondo slipped behind Dirk Nowitzki and tore the ball away from the big German on a Pual Pierce miss. Then, when it appeared he had his foot pinned down by a defender, he tossed in an underhand bank shot that looked like something you might try in a game of H-O-R-S-E. It proved to be the game winner and it gave Rondo 14-12-4 for a final line. Not bad.

(Oh, and for the record, I admit that I'm happy to see Rondo playing so well, as I predicted big things for him over the summer.

Holy 11 Turnovers!

2008-01-31T22:36:00.000-06:00

The Lakers started a nine-game road trip tonight in Detroit, never an easy task. And they suffered a heart-breaking 90-89 loss when Tayshaun Prince drained a three with four seconds left and then Odom tossed up an airball at the buzzer (in fairness to Odom, he'd taken just four shots the entire game prior to that heave). One wonders if the task might not have been so difficult had Kobe Bryant managed his triple-double in more conventional fashion. Indeed, while Bryant went for 39 points and 10 rebounds, he also tallied a whopping 11 turnovers. I can't remember the last time I saw somebody rack up that many TO's. Amazing.