Friday, April 22, 2005

Early Season Trades

We have all heard the saying “Buy Low and Sell High”, but when it comes to Fantasy Baseball, these are not always the best words to live by. Before agreeing to a trade or offering up a trade, every owner should spend 15 minutes and perform their due diligence on all parties involved in the trade. For example, there are certain players (i.e. Thome and Beltran) who are notorious for their slow starts. An inexperienced owner might have grown frustrated with these players after the first few weeks and be willing to part with them at a price that is a bit below their draft position. If you can find one of these owners out there, it is your duty as a good fantasy owner to swoop in and snatch these players off of their roster.

On the flip side of this scenario, is an owner who is trying to unload players that are playing well above their draft position. Two perfect examples of this are Torri Hunter and the next AL Triple Crown award winner in Brian Roberts. In most 10 team mixed leagues, you could have snagged either of these guys between rounds 13-17 and that would have seemed like a decent pick at the time. Through the first 3 weeks, these players have played better than almost anyone else at their respective positions. The common thought amongst most owners is to trade them away while you can because their value will never be any higher. I can totally understand that viewpoint because more times than not, these players production will taper off over the next month and they will fall back to the mediocre players that they were when you drafted them. If someone is willing to give you B. Sheets or K-Rod for B. Roberts, you should not think twice about pulling the trigger. However, when it comes to Mr. Hunter, I tend to disagree. The reason being that his power numbers are not the reason his value is so high, it is his SB numbers (9 SB’s thru 4/21/05) that are separating him from the competition. Barring an injury or a change in team strategy, I see no reason that he can’t steal 35 bases this year. He is obviously running more frequently and his success rate is perfect thus far. If he can steal 35 bases and then have a slight increase in his other statistics, here is what his year end stats could look like…. 98 Runs, .284 Avg., 32 HR’s, 101 RBI and 35 SB’s. Call me crazy, but that line looks eerily familiar to the numbers that C. Beltran will put up this season. Am I saying that you should trade Beltran or a player of similar draft position for Hunter? No, but if you can find someone who is willing to unload Hunter for someone like Aubrey Huff, you should take that deal and run!

5 comments:

Reed said...

Nice blog. I wondered if any other dudes were ever going to write anything. You know your stuff. Hunter just stole another bag and I just made two offers for him. If you guys need anyone to write about indoor soccer, let me know.

Anonymous said...

Good to see that this is up and running again. So are you saying I shouldn't trade Hunter? As soon as I saw him steal his ninth base, I was ready to start taking offers. Your logic makes sense, but I still feel like I should move him while he's hot. Should I only trade him for guys that I would trade Beltran for? What about a guy like Miguel Cabrera? Thanks!

Christian Burby said...

I can totally understand why you would be entertaining trade offers for T. Hunter right now. What you need to make sure of is that you are getting equal value in return for him. I would say that M. Cabrera for T. Hunter would be just that. Barring injuries, Cabrera will reproduce his stats from last year if not increase them slightly in average and runs. Cabrera will most likely finish with more RBI, HR and a better batting average than Torri, but Hunter will have close to 30 more SB's. The chances of you being able to find an owner willing to give you a guy like M. Cabrera or M. Teixeira for Hunter are fairly slim, so I would recommend that you hold on to him because he is much more valuable on your team than he is on the trading block.

Anthony said...

Would it be a good idea to actively pursue Hunter? Could it be that owners in my leagues are kind of hoping to "sell high" and might pull the trigger for a guy like Mike Piazza? Just kidding. But seriously, should I try to deal a bigger name player for him?

Adam Hoff said...

I should probably leave this to Burby - as he is our resident fantasy baseball expert - but I think you can take the concept and use it in reverse. Not only should you hang on to Hunter if you've got him, but you should try to get him for what is still a discount price if you don't have him, particularly if you need stolen bases (like all of my teams). I'd try offering a sluggish big name player that you snagged somehwere in rounds 7-10, a guy like Andruw Jones.